Conference Realignment

[WreckinGT]

The big difference in the B12/Texas and Oklahoma is the TV deal had only two years left and the schools bought out the rights for the last year. For a very large fee.

The amount of time left doesn't really matter. Texas and Oklahoma also exited for a reduced rate. https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...c-early-leave-big-12-ads-kind-of-dumbfounded/. If it is clear cut that they could have just said, no you are staying in the Big 12 until the GOR ends, then why didn't they do that?

 

[WreckinGT]

You are aware there are teams that are not members of any conference right? And somehow, some way, they manage to put together a schedule year after year... heck, FSU has been independent before and was for a long time, so they should have a little past knowledge of how to figure out scheduling without a conference's help.

Just because things become more difficult does not make them impossible, but I'm sure that won't stop you from continuing to argue this terribly weak argument.

So if FSU leaves the ACC next year, you think creating new schedule with quality opponents in non televised games would be easy?

 

[L41k18]

Nothing fires up a base like doom and gloom.

Truer words were never spoken, as has been - and continues to be - proven in many arenas of life.

 

[CEB]

The amount of time left doesn't really matter. Texas and Oklahoma also exited for a reduced rate. https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...c-early-leave-big-12-ads-kind-of-dumbfounded/. If it is clear cut that they could have just said, no you are staying in the Big 12 until the GOR ends, then why didn't they do that?

The amount of time matters significantly. Not only being able to assess the value of 1 year vs 10 years but the bigger problem FSU has right now is that whatever the ACC does sets a precedent that they have to live with for 12 years. Strike a deal with FSU today, then UNC, Clemson, etc have precedent to insist on the same deal tomorrow.
At some point the ACC will have agreed to dilute the ESPN deal simply by virtue of allowing payments in lieu of GOR. ESPN can then come at the ACC for breach of contract, right? Whatever payment ACC accepts has to take all of that into consideration.
It’s not quite as simple as arriving at a number. The ACC has a responsibility to ESPN and the GOR is their only vehicle to fulfill that responsibility.

 

[roadkill]

There is no attempt to swim here. The option for FSU in that case is stay in the ACC or shut down your athletic department. That isn't really a choice. That also makes the GOR a document not just for media rights but for holding all members hostage. No one can leave. The exit fees are pointless because teams cant leave anyways due to not being able to generate revenue. I don't think that would ever hold up legally.

I'm going to join the others who have responded that the GOR doesn't legally block FSU from leaving, although it does present some significant financial consequences should they choose to do so. The consequences don't have to be black or white here, such as shutting down their athletic department.
Let's look at the FSU AA's numbers (2022 data is the latest I have):

Total Income: $161M
Income from Media Rights: $41.4M
M.R. Income fraction of total: 26% (GT's is 35% for comparison)
Notably, their Expense was only $152M, for a profit of $9M

So FSU's AA is potentially looking at a loss of 26% of its revenue. This would drop them down to "only" $120M in revenue, which is still 12% more than GTAA receives. The horror! How could they possibly survive?

 

[gtbb]

Sell tickets for what games? If they can't join another conference then putting a schedule together is going to be difficult. Raising ticket prices and playing Ball St in a non televised game isn't really a solution. Good luck getting donations in the same type of environment. They simply wouldn't be able to do business anymore.

I don't think they'd go through all of this hassle if they didn't at least informally know they already have a landing spot in one of the B1G/SEC. I can't imagine them doing all of this, and then just being cast adrift without a conference.

 

[WreckinGT]

I'm going to join the others who have responded that the GOR doesn't legally block FSU from leaving, although it does present some significant financial consequences should they choose to do so. The consequences don't have to be black or white here, such as shutting down their athletic department.
Let's look at the FSU AA's numbers (2022 data is the latest I have):

Total Income: $161M
Income from Media Rights: $41.4M
M.R. Income fraction of total: 26% (GT's is 35% for comparison)
Notably, their Expense was only $152M, for a profit of $9M

So FSU's AA is potentially looking at a loss of 26% of its revenue. This would drop them down to "only" $120M in revenue, which is still 12% more than GTAA receives. The horror! How could they possibly survive?

You are leaving out the payouts from the CFP which they won't continue to receive and you are assuming that ticket sales and donations will remain constant while they aren't in a conference and are scrounging to schedule really anybody to play in football and basketball. Not to mention the likely loss in talent that is not going to stick around through all of that chaos. FSU had operating revenue of 169 million for 2022-2023. They had expenses of 171 million. Cutting their revenue in half or lower simply isn't feasible. Doing it for 10 years really isn't feasible.

 

[slugboy]

There is nothing in the FSU legal complaint that insinuates the upcoming ESPN option is for continuation of the ACC network. They are pretty clearly saying is is for ACC media rights in total.

As I understand it, that’s granting ESPN use of the rights through 2027. The ACC is the rights holder through 2036.

Two separate contracts.

 

[Vespidae]

Not really. This is the textbook example of a frivolous lawsuit. Launch an all out media blitz to announce a public relations nightmare of a lawsuit on shaky (at best) legal grounds with just enough "truth" conflated with misconstrued assertions and hope that the ACC decides not to spend money on the defense of a contract holding a school that clearly wants to leave in place. I've spoken with two friends who are lawyers, both fans of SEC teams, and both have said that the only chance FSU has in court is if they get an extremely sympathetic judge in a South Florida venue on a snow day that keeps the ACC lawyers from showing up. Barring that, they see no legal path forward for FSU regaining their rights unless the ACC agrees to sell them back to them.

I was involved in a lawsuit many years ago. The plaintiff sued our firm over a small claim but cited irreparable harm and asked for $100 million in damages. As the lawyers entered, they brought handtrucks with dozens and dozens of document boxes. "We intend to prove our case, the mounds of evidence are so overwhelming the only wise course of action is for the defendant to admit its guilt and pay our damages!!!"

Our lawyers, later in the day, asked the judge if it was the Plaintiff's intention to introduce the nearly 600,000 documents into evidence. "Absolutely", the lawyers bellowed. "Mind if we take a look?" said one of mine.

Empty. Every single one. Empty. Case got tossed by the end of the day.

Never assume the opposing team is right. The more outrageous the claim, they more they want to settle.

 

[SimpleGT]

Sell tickets for what games? If they can't join another conference then putting a schedule together is going to be difficult. Raising ticket prices and playing Ball St in a non televised game isn't really a solution. Good luck getting donations in the same type of environment. They simply wouldn't be able to do business anymore.

Bake sales and Admission fees to FSU sock hops.

 

[slugboy]

You are leaving out the payouts from the CFP which they won't continue to receive and you are assuming that ticket sales and donations will remain constant while they aren't in a conference and are scrounging to schedule really anybody to play in football and basketball. Not to mention the likely loss in talent that is not going to stick around through all of that chaos. FSU had operating revenue of 169 million for 2022-2023. They had expenses of 171 million. Cutting their revenue in half or lower simply isn't feasible. Doing it for 10 years really isn't feasible.

So, if that’s correct, and it may not be, the contract may not be as valuable as FSU hoped it would be 8 years ago.

How does that invalidate the contract?

Plenty of legal agreements turn out to be less valuable than people hoped for.

Example: you get a 25 year mortgage on a new home. 5 years later, the house burns to the ground. You’re still on the hook for the mortgage

 

[Vespidae]

There is no attempt to swim here. The option for FSU in that case is stay in the ACC or shut down your athletic department. That isn't really a choice. That also makes the GOR a document not just for media rights but for holding all members hostage. No one can leave. The exit fees are pointless because teams cant leave anyways due to not being able to generate revenue. I don't think that would ever hold up legally.

It's called Free Will. FSU freely entered the contract multiple times. That leaving might be a bad business decision is irrelevant.

Coca-Cola famously signed a contract guaranteeing to sell syrup at a fixed price regardless of the price of sugar. At the time, they thought no one would ever want to bottle Coca-Cola and drink it at home. They were wrong. For about 100 years. Finally had to buy all the bottlers to break the contract.

 

[roadkill]

You are leaving out the payouts from the CFP which they won't continue to receive and you are assuming that ticket sales and donations will remain constant while they aren't in a conference and are scrounging to schedule really anybody to play in football and basketball. Not to mention the likely loss in talent that is not going to stick around through all of that chaos. FSU had operating revenue of 169 million for 2022-2023. They had expenses of 171 million. Cutting their revenue in half or lower simply isn't feasible. Doing it for 10 years really isn't feasible.

All post-season revenue including CFP was included in the Media Rights numbers I cited. But I checked other sources and you are correct that FSU's expenses and revenue increased in their last fiscal year.

Your point about declining revenue in the event of a loss of conference affiliation has some validity. However, if FSU wanted to maintain its athletic reputation and market presence, it could still go independent like they were before 1992, and schedule as many decent OOC games with solid opponents (including its current OOC rivalry game) as possible until the GOR expired. Pretty sure UF and Miami would play them every year if given the chance, regardless of conference affiliation. Not suggesting that this would be a good situation for them to be in, but might allow them to tread water while they await the GOR's expiration or some other sort of lifeline, like the huge loan they have mentioned.

 

[billga99]

All post-season revenue including CFP was included in the Media Rights numbers I cited. But I checked other sources and you are correct that FSU's expenses and revenue increased in their last fiscal year.

Your point about declining revenue in the event of a loss of conference affiliation has some validity. However, if FSU wanted to maintain its athletic reputation and market presence, it could still go independent like they were before 1992, and schedule as many decent OOC games with solid opponents (including its current OOC rivalry game) as possible until the GOR expired. Pretty sure UF and Miami would play them every year if given the chance, regardless of conference affiliation. Not suggesting that this would be a good situation for them to be in, but might allow them to tread water while they await the GOR's expiration or some other sort of lifeline, like the huge loan they have mentioned.

There are very few independents left...most are in a conference. And schedules are normally out a few years. I don't think it will be easy to put together an independent schedule for a few years. Since the GOR don't belong to FSU at the point, why wouldn't their opponents want to play FSU at their home field instead of the revenue going to the ACC.

 

[UgaBlows]

I don't think they'd go through all of this hassle if they didn't at least informally know they already have a landing spot in one of the B1G/SEC. I can't imagine them doing all of this, and then just being cast adrift without a conference.

You would think that if that were the case then FSU would have one or more partner’s in this Don Quixote-esque quest of theirs.

 

[orientalnc]

You would think that if that were the case then FSU would have one or more partner’s in this Don Quixote-esque quest of theirs.

I read something a few months ago that the B1G was unlikely to expand further unless Notre Dame joined the conference. ND cannot join the B1G until after 2036.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

The ACC has breached the contract by letting itself become a joke of a conference. No bid in 2 years for the CFP. 1 bid incoming in the 12 team playoff. March Madness bids will be far less than other conferences. The ACC leadership has failed its member schools yet everyone is mad at the the one school who went undefeated and is pointing out the emperor has no clothes in Charlotte.

No high level players, outside of a few like Kam Davis from Albany going to FSU due to local ties, want to play in a joke conference so the SEC/BIG can just sit back and watch the ACC continue the slide into irrelevancy. At some point I hope fans of ACC schools wake up, but if the CFP didn’t wake them up then I’m afraid we’ll be Sunbelt level within a decade because the boys in Charlotte are doing absolutely nothing except making sure their hostages don’t escape.

 

[RonJohn]

There are very few independents left...most are in a conference. And schedules are normally out a few years. I don't think it will be easy to put together an independent schedule for a few years. Since the GOR don't belong to FSU at the point, why wouldn't their opponents want to play FSU at their home field instead of the revenue going to the ACC.

Convincing someone to break a contract opens that party up to claims of tortious interference. The SEC offered positions to Texas and Oklahoma when the Big 12 contract was supposed to expire. The Big 10 offered spots to USC and UCLA when the Pac12 contract was supposed to expire. I don't remember anyone making actual offers, even informal ones before the expiration of a GOR. (well, the offers were made before the expiration, but they were not offers to leave until the GOR expiration.)

 

[slugboy]

The ACC has breached the contract by letting itself become a joke of a conference.

that is not a breach of contract

If it were, it might be grounds for the ACC to sue FSU, Miami, and Clemson. The SEC isn’t upset because Arkansas can’t make then CFP. It’s the top teams in the conference who get in, and Miami and FSU haven’t lived up to their expectations in year. At no point were ADs or school presidents expecting Wake or Duke to be the playoff representatives—that was Clemson, FSU, Miami, and VT. Maybe UNC, or even us as a long shot.

 

[yeti92]

So if FSU leaves the ACC next year, you think creating new schedule with quality opponents in non televised games would be easy?

They would have that issue regardless of how much money they have to pay to leave. FSU does not, at least publically, have an offer to join any other conference, and it's debatable whether they would even get one from a better financed conference seeing as they are combative towards their own conference, not an AAU member, and UF and ESPN could block them from the SEC. You will not win a court case arguing about a theoretical future possibility.

Do you really believe that FSU should be allowed to break the GOR they signed multiple times and leave the ACC with their media rights in hand, penalty-free?