Conference Realignment

RonJohn

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FSU may be getting ready to leave the ACC for the Big10
No they aren't. That tweet listed the entire buyout as $200 million. I totally ignored the GOR. Plus, the Big10 isn't likely to offer anything to FSU even if GOR wasn't an issue. In addition to that, the NCAA just released a proposal to modify the rules to basically make "professional" and "academic" divisions in FBS football. (The descriptions are mine, not the NCAAs) I bet, double, triple, quadriple bet, that no more changes to P4 football conferences are going to happen until that proposal is resolved. Why would the Big10 offer FSU membership in 2026 if the entire FBS division is broken up in 2026 or 2027? Why would FSU agree to the ACC payout if all of FBS football is going to change in a few years? I would be highly skeptical of this tweet even without the NCAA proposal. Including the proposal and he potential impact on all of FBS football, the tweet is totally idiotic.
 

roadkill

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ThatGuy

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Wasn't the rumor that FSU (and perhaps Clemson too) was leaving in November? Or was it October? I can't keep up with these rumors. It's been like the guy who predicts the apocalypse on a certain day, then the day passes, so the date changes, etc. :)
I believe it was both.

So if we keep going, at this rate when they finally decide to leave in 2047, the prognosticators will triumphantly say, "See? Told you so."
 

LT 1967

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I agree that with the comments concerning FSUs lack of a path out of the ACC. The exit fee would be something like 3 x Annual Distribution of $42M= $126M. Plus media rights for 13 years---13 x $32M = $416 M. That is a total of $542M.

Assuming that is anywhere close to accurate, why do we keep seeing talk from their administrators like the attached from their recently retired President, John Thrasher. This is a long article from the Tallahassee Democrat. I cherry picked Thrasher's comments from the article since most of us know the basic story line.

Makes me wonder what they believe they know that we don't. It doesn't make a lot of sense to continually insult the other conference members.

Maybe they hope the ACC will tire of this constant criticism and negotiate a lower exit fee?? Thoughts?
 

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SOWEGA Jacket

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Because it’s all just business and everything is negotiable. Those of you who believe the GOR is the only contract in the history of the US that won’t be attacked or renegotiated is just funny. Everything is up to be negotiated and people are always able to be bought.
 

LT 1967

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Because it’s all just business and everything is negotiable. Those of you who believe the GOR is the only contract in the history of the US that won’t be attacked or renegotiated is just funny. Everything is up to be negotiated and people are always able to be bought.

I definitely agree with you on the negotiation thoughts, but even 50% reduction leaves FSU with approximately $250M. They can't afford that IMO. Even Texas and OK waited until the final year of their GOR to give up one year of media rights to get out of the Big 12. It cost them about $40M each if I remember correctly.

The big 12 and ACC GOR contracts are basically the same if reporters are correct.

However, as you say it will probably be negotiated, likely in Court.

Mark Bradley said in his Monday article after the CFP decision that he believes that FSU will have announced their departure from the ACC by the time FSU plays in the Orange Bowl. Only time will tell.
 
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cpf2001

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FSU pressured the committee to get left out to try to get more justification for leaving, you heard it here first!

Course, if you believe the computers, FSU probably wouldn't have even been in the conversation if they were in the Big 10 this year...? ;)
 

gameface

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I definitely agree with you on the negotiation thoughts, but even 50% reduction leaves FSU with approximately $250M. They can't afford that IMO. Even Texas and OK waited until the final year of their GOR to give up one year of media rights to get out of the Big 12. It cost them about $40M each if I remember correctly.

The big 12 and ACC GOR contracts are basically the same if reporters are correct.

However, as you say it will probably be negotiated, likely in Court.

Mark Bradley said in his Monday article after the CFP decision that he believes that FSU will have announced their departure from the ACC by the time FSU plays in the Orange Bowl. Only time will tell.
Mark Bradley just likes to stir things up. He has never gotten over the time he used to perm his hair. The chemicals fried his brain.
 

LT 1967

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Mark Bradley just likes to stir things up. He has never gotten over the time he used to perm his hair. The chemicals fried his brain.

I remember a time back when the ACC had added Miami, FSU, and BC, and later ND, Mark was very positive about the ACC. I have always thought that he was pretty objective. His opinions have seemed to move towards a more negative tone over the last 2 or 3 years. I suppose it is somewhat justified due to several of the ACC's teams like UNC, Miami, Pitt, and Clemson, not living up to recent expectations. As you say, I am sure he knows that his opinion pieces will stir up conversation.
 
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RonJohn

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Because it’s all just business and everything is negotiable. Those of you who believe the GOR is the only contract in the history of the US that won’t be attacked or renegotiated is just funny. Everything is up to be negotiated and people are always able to be bought.
And what would they be negotiating to get to? If NCAA proposal to split up FBS is adopted, it will change all of the FBS conferences. Are the Big10 and the SEC going to move forward with additional members before understanding what will happen? It FSU announces now that they are leaving the ACC, they will owe the buyout and will have to give up their media rights, or as you point out haggle over a payoff for the media rights.

It is possible that in another six months, they could find a path to move to the FBS - "professional" division. I don't know that all of the ACC members will do so. I don't know that all of the Big 10 members will do so. There might even be an SEC school that doesn't. It is very possible that the ACC, and other conferences, will be split up because of the potential division split. There is no reason for conferences to expand any further until that proposal is resolved. There is no reason for FSU to act immediately and owe a buyout until that proposal is resolved. That leads me to believe that nothing further will happen with teams leaving or expansion until after that proposal is resolved. (Oregon State and Washington State have to find somewhere to go still, but that is a left over piece, not new leave/expand)

Twitter is full of blowhards who make all kinds of purely speculative announcements. This one even has factual errors in their "announcement". It does not deserve the attention that it is getting.
 

orientalnc

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Because it’s all just business and everything is negotiable. Those of you who believe the GOR is the only contract in the history of the US that won’t be attacked or renegotiated is just funny. Everything is up to be negotiated and people are always able to be bought.
The GOR was written to be iron clad. The reason was to keep teams from leaving without a severe penalty. The ACC is not the only conference using this. The B12 and PAC also had it and that is why teams left as the GOR was ending.

My feeling is that the ACC wants to keep FSU, but cannot stop them from leaving. What they will do is uncertain, but I betcha they will make it very painful for the Noles. Very painful. Can you imagine competing against tOSU and Michigan while not getting any TV money? The B1G would have to send FSU's share of their TV contract to the ACC every year until 2036!
 

RonJohn

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The B1G would have to send FSU's share of their TV contract to the ACC every year until 2036!
The Big10 could give anything they want to FSU. The Big10 would not owe anything to the ACC. The way it works is that the ACC would still own FSU's broadcast rights and would broadcast any FSU games under the ACC-ESPN contract.

However, like I posted before, nothing is going to happen until the NCAA "professional/academic" division split of FBS football proposal is addressed. There is no reason to make plans nor spend money until the implications of that are known. Unlike a lot of conspiracy theory type ideas, this proposal has a real chance of splitting FBS conferences without any buyout or GOR considerations.
 

MWBATL

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Mark Bradley just likes to stir things up. He has never gotten over the time he used to perm his hair. The chemicals fried his brain.
I wish I had a nickle for everytime a (1) sports writer made a prediction that failed to come true; and (2) for every conference realignment prediction that has failed to come true.

Elon Musk would be calling ME!
 

orientalnc

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The Big10 could give anything they want to FSU. The Big10 would not owe anything to the ACC. The way it works is that the ACC would still own FSU's broadcast rights and would broadcast any FSU games under the ACC-ESPN contract.

However, like I posted before, nothing is going to happen until the NCAA "professional/academic" division split of FBS football proposal is addressed. There is no reason to make plans nor spend money until the implications of that are known. Unlike a lot of conspiracy theory type ideas, this proposal has a real chance of splitting FBS conferences without any buyout or GOR considerations.
The ACC owns ALL of FSU's media rights through 2036, not just the current ESPN contract. I agree with you that ESPN might be able to televise FSU's home games throught ACC contract, but any media share the B1G might want to give to FSU would also belong to the ACC.

But, the reality is that FSU fans are making noise that FSU's president is not making. If the president starts saying they are leaving by some date I might pay more attention.
 

RonJohn

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The ACC owns ALL of FSU's media rights through 2036, not just the current ESPN contract. I agree with you that ESPN might be able to televise FSU's home games throught ACC contract, but any media share the B1G might want to give to FSU would also belong to the ACC.

But, the reality is that FSU fans are making noise that FSU's president is not making. If the president starts saying they are leaving by some date I might pay more attention.
In the previous GOR, there is nothing in there about getting money paid by another conference. It just says that the ACC owns the media rights for all of the schools that signed the GOR. I don't understand why you think that the ACC would get anything that was negotiated between FSU and another conference. If it has nothing to do with the media rights of games controlled by FSU, then it wouldn't involve the GOR nor the ACC. The Big10 could pay anything they want to pay to FSU, and it wouldn't concern the ACC because it would not be involved in the media rights of FSU controlled games.

Of course I have to point out that the Big10 would get zero dollars from media of FSU controlled games. They could potentially get extra money for FSU playing away games at other Big10 members. I seriously doubt that any broadcast company would pay more to the Big10 to have FSU play in 4 games a year.

There is no reason for the Big10 to pay FSU any money if FSU doesn't bring any money into the conference. There are several ACC schools that the Big10 would be interested in acquiring before FSU. I seriously doubt that FSU would get an invitation to the Big10 if they leave the ACC. I seriously doubt that FSU would get an invitation to the SEC if they leave. They could potentially try to join the Big12. Even if the GOR is resolved, that would be less money, but they could try to take over for Texas as far as being the bully of the conference. They could go independent, but that makes even less sense especially if they can't even broadcast their own games. This is a suspect Twitter account that is spewing nonsense and actually has factual errors in their posts about this. It is probably either a troll or some drunk college kids trying to stir things up.
 

slugboy

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Y’all are arguing about things that aren’t real at this point in time.

The NCAA president made a statement about a split into a pro league and an amateur league. Under what legal framework is he going to make an amateur league work? How are they going to take away NIL from those players? On what legal basis? If they have a legal basis, why haven’t they used it during the last five years? In a pay for play league, what interest do the B1G and the SEC have in cooperation with the NCAA or even an existence of the NCAA?

As for FSU leaving the ACC, what method of exit is in any way practical and of any interest to the conference to negotiate?

IF the NCAA had a plan, they would need antitrust protection. How are they getting Congress on board to support that?

How are they getting all involved parties to cancel their existing contracts and yield their rights back for the formation of these new leagues? How do they get 130-ish teams out of the financial obligations they signed on for based on previous contracts and obligations?

Most “fixes” to CFB require acts of Congress. Where do those stand today? (Committees aren’t even seriously working in these)

Edit: Normally, when things cannot possibly continue as they are, something is done or something happens. But there’s no evidence any of the interested parties has a clue how to solve this. The simplest path I see is the SEC and the B1G survive (but not all of their members), and a lot of the athletic departments go bankrupt in the next decade or so. Collapse seems a lot more likely than intelligent action.
 
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Richard7125

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It can be bad for morale if 95% of the company sees themselves working harder for the same reward. So you can be a net win but your peers be upset … whoa, it really is a perfect analogy ;)
But they aren'tt getting the same reward. Notre Dame only received $17M from ACC last year. Notre Dame has made it clear they want to be independent in football. They aren't frothing at the mouth like FSU to be in the SEC or Big10. Notre Dame football is typically one of the biggest games on any opponent's schedule and the ACC has an agreement for five of those football games every year. Why people think that's a negative is beyond me.
 

stinger78

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The B1G and SECheat will last as they are for exactly as long as the many underlings are willing to lose year after year in order to pick up that paycheck. When the top teams start taking the lion’s share of the payout you may see them begin to drop out.
 
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