Comparing Recruiting Classes

[BainbridgeJacket]

I've been working on compiling data on recruiting rankings to try to gauge more accurately expected results on the field based on the information available on recruits before they get on campus. Rather than relying on star ranking or evaluator ratings, I have always been more interested in offer sheets. This is an effort to try and quantify and value recruits based on offer sheets.

Methodology:
Using the Sagarin Rankings on signing day determine each player's next best offer. Then determine a points total for each player based on the # of BCS offers and ranking of next best offer;
(NBOrank*48)/(40+#BCSoffers)

To determine the class overall ranking, I averaged out the individual player rankings. This resulted in rankings which did not match our results; however, if you normalize for the number of players which are still on the team for their third season the results are surprisingly accurate:
(CLASSrank*19)/(#players_still_with_team)

Below are the results. As you see, for some players I messed around with their NBO rating as my memory differs from the recruiting sites' database on who was involved with the player. Feel free to tell me how stupid it is.

2007 Recruiting Analysis

# Commit #BCSOffers Next best offer NBO Final Rank Calculator
1 Joseph Gilbert 1 None* 32 37.46
2 Michael Peterson 4 BC 25 27.27
3 Jason Peters 6 Florida 1 1.04
4 Morgan Burnett 7 Auburn 11 11.23
5 Derrick Morgan 5 Ohio State 4 4.27
6 Albert Rocker 4 Louisville 5 5.45
7 Clyde Yandell 5 Florida 1 1.07
8 Josh Nesbitt 5 Auburn 11 11.73
9 Jonathan Dwyer 5 Florida 1 1.07
10 Nick Claytor 5 LSU 3 3.20
11 DJ Donley 5 Florida 1 1.07
12 Logan Walls 7 Auburn 11 11.23
13 Roddy Jones 4 Clemson 29 31.64
14 Willie White 5 Tenn 15 16.00
15 Kyle Jackson 3 Wake Forest 27 30.14
16 Mario Butler 7 Ohio State 4 4.09
17 Steven Threet 7 Wisconsin 9 9.19
18 Tyler Melton 1 AF, Iowa State, LouTech, Rice* 32 37.46
19 Brad Jefferson 2 Maryland (38) 38 43.43
20 Jerrard Tarrant 1 Duke, Vandy* 32 37.46
Predicted 15.46
2009 Actual 12


2008 Recruiting Analysis

# Commit #BCSOffers Next best offer NBO Final Rank Calculator
1 TJ Barnes 3 Auburn 13 14.51
2 Brandon Leslie 3 Utah 34 37.95
3 Jon Lockhart 5 USF 20 21.33
4 BJ Machen 7 WVU 3 3.06
5 Daniel McKayhan 1 Furman(107) 107 125.27
6 Nick McRae 4 UCF 46 50.18
7 Malcolm Munroe 8 Auburn 13 13.00
8 Emby Peeples 4 WVU 3 3.27
9 Rashaad Reid 7 Arkansas 25 25.53
10 Kamaron Riley 3 Vandy 54 60.28
11 Jaybo Shaw 1 AF 49 57.37
12 Quentin Sims 2 UVA 41 46.86
13 Phil Smith 2 Penn State 26 29.71
14 Steven Sylvester 6 VT 9 9.39
15 Cooper Taylor 3 UVA 41 45.77
16 Omoregie Uzzi 7 UGA 7 7.15
17 Tevin Washington 1 Arizona State 14 16.39
18 Richard Watson 6 Arizona State 14 14.61
19 Antonio Wilson 2 Vandy 54 61.71
20 Marcus Wright 1 Tulsa 65 76.10
Predicted 68.35
2010 Actual 70

 

[BainbridgeJacket]

2009 Recruiting Analysis

# Commit #BCSOffers Next best offer NBO Final Rank Calculator
1 Carl Miles 2 Kansas State 74 84.57
2 Lance Richardson 5 Oregon 11 11.73
3 Izaan Cross 7 Oklahoma 3 3.06
4 Euclid Cummings 5 North Carolina 29 30.93
5 Julian Burnett 5 Wake Forest 25 26.67
6 David Sims 5 Kansas 31 33.07
7 Antonio Foster 7 Florida State 17 17.36
8 Stephen Hill 5 UGA 15 16.00
9 Orwin Smith 4 Clemson 30 32.73
10 Jemea Thomas 3 Vanderbilt 39 43.53
11 Rod Sweeting 5 Ohio State 14 14.93
12 Raymond Beno 4 Wake Forest 25 27.27
13 Will Jackson 5 Ole Miss 10 10.67
14 Chris Crenshaw 2 Mississippi State 93 106.29
15 Jeremy Moore 2 Utah 5 5.71
16 Daniel Drummond 3 Oklahoma State 20 22.33
17 Jay Finch 4 Ole Miss 10 10.91
18 Jordan Luallen 7 Iowa 22 22.47
19 Brandon Watts 4 Florida 1 1.09
20 Emmanuel Dieke 1 Western Carolina 190 222.44
21 JC Lanier 2 Clemson 30 34.29
Predicted 50.28
2011 Actual 56

 

[BainbridgeJacket]

2010 Recruiting Analysis

# Commit #BCSOffers Next best offer NBO Final Rank Calculator
1 Louis Young 9 Virginia Tech 7 6.86
2 Tony Zenon 1 None* 120 140.49
3 Deon Hill 1 None* 120 140.49
4 Jeremiah Attaochu 9 Minnesota 64 62.69
5 Justin Moore 1 Miami Ohio 156 182.63
6 Quayshawn Nealy 9 Ole Miss 19 18.61
7 Synjyn Days 6 Oklahoma State 40 41.74
8 Jake Skole 6 Virginia Tech 7 7.30
9 Anthony Williams 5 LSU 13 13.87
10 Shawn Green 6 Ole Miss 19 19.83
11 Ryan Ayers 7 Alabama 1 1.02
12 Morgan Bailey 7 Ole Miss 19 19.40
13 Catlin Alford 3 Navy 38 42.42
14 Isaiah Johnson 7 Ole Miss 19 19.40
15 B.J. Bostic 5 Mississippi State 45 48.00
16 Denzel McCoy 7 Alabama 1 1.02
17 Fred Holton 4 Ole Miss 19 20.73
18 Charles Perkins 1 None* 60 70.24
Predicted 50.24
2012 Actual 46

 

[BainbridgeJacket]

2011 Recruiting Analysis

# Commit #BCSOffers Next best offer NBO Final Rank Calculator
1 Anthony Harrell 7 Stanford 2 2.04
2 Kyle Travis 1 None* 120 140.49
3 Sean Tobin 2 Colorado State 130 148.57
4 Nick Menocal 6 Stanford 2 2.09
5 Demontevious Smith 3 Virginia Tech 13 14.51
6 Corey Dennis 1 Troy 80 93.66
7 Errin Joe 6 Florida State 14 14.61
8 Jamal Golden 2 Illinois 39 44.57
9 Tyler Marcordes 2 Illinois 39 44.57
10 Zach Laskey 3 Air Force 37 41.30
11 Broderick Snoddy 2 Kentucky 74 84.57
12 Chris Milton 10 South Carolina 25 24.00
13 Domonique Noble 8 Wisconsin 12 12.00
14 Tremayne McNair 8 Arkansas 9 9.00
15 Vad Lee 9 Auburn 1 0.98
16 Jeff Greene 5 Mississippi State 15 16.00
17 Darren Waller 4 Air Force 37 40.36
18 Shaquille Mason 1 None* 60 70.24
19 Jabari Hunt-Days 2 Maryland 38 43.43
20 Trey Braun 1 None* 90 105.37
21 Bryan Chamberlain 1 None* 90 105.37
22 Chaz Cheeks 3 NC State 18 20.09
Predicted 44.33

 

[BainbridgeJacket]

2012 Recruiting Analysis

# Commit #BCSOffers Next best offer NBO Final Rank Calculator
1 DJ White 11 South Carolina 10 9.41
2 Dennis Andrews 9 Arkansas 6 5.88
3 Marcus Allen 16 Arkansas 6 5.14
4 Anthony Autry 2 Indiana(139)* 56 64.00
5 Freddie Burden 2 Florida 29 33.14
6 Roderick Chungong 14 Stanford 7 6.22
7 Pat Gamble 10 Stanford 7 6.72
8 Adam Gotsis 1 None* 56 65.56
9 Lynn Griffin 3 Southern Miss 24 26.79
10 Travin Henry 2 Vandy 42 48.00
11 Francis Kallon 16 Arkansas 6 5.14
12 Chase Roberts 1 None* 56 65.56
13 Ryan Rodwell 1 Georgia Southern* 56 65.56
14 Tyler Stargel 1 Louisiana Tech 48 56.20
15 Michael Summers 5 Florida 29 30.93
16 Justin Thomas 11 Alabama 1 0.94
17 Beau Hankins 6 Arkansas 6 6.26
Predicted 32.97

 

[BainbridgeJacket]

2013 Recruiting Analysis

# Commit #BCSOffers Next best offer NBO Final Rank Calculator
1 Corey Griffin 2 Ball State 67 76.57
2 Paul Davis 2 Temple 100 114.29
3 Ty Griffin 3 Navy 82 91.53
4 Ricky Jeune 6 Kansas State 8 8.35
5 Antonio Messick 1 None 120 140.49
6 Justin Akins 4 Clemson 14 15.27
7 John Marvin 5 Louisville 27 28.80
8 Harrison Butker 3 Auburn* 25 27.91
9 Chris Griffin 10 South Carolina 6 5.76
10 Kevin Robbins 13 Ole Miss 24 21.74
11 Darius Commissiong 14 Clemson 14 12.44
12 Shamire DeVine 10 Georgia 4 3.84
13 Donovan Wilson 2 Purdue 71 81.14
14 Travis Custis 7 Clemson 14 14.30
Predicted 62.28

 

[Brian]

Seems like it gets better over time

 

[iopjacket]

Appears that a recruit is rated much higher if he waits to get a number of offers before committing

 

[awbuzz]

Appears that a recruit is rated much higher if he waits to get a number of offers before committing

that is the potential problem with this model. as long as we look at it as one of several measuring tools it does shed some light on the class.

 

[PowderSpringsJacket88]

The 2012 class is pretty impressive.

 

[SoCal_GT_Fan]

Wish all those who say, "we can only go toe-to-toe with the Elon, MTSU, Temple of the world for recruits" would see this list. Thanks for putting this together.

 

[BainbridgeJacket]

Resurrecting this, the prediction was 44.33 for this year and we finished 37 in Sagarin. I've done the same for our just signed class with similar adjustments based on when offers were made, etc.

2014 Recruiting Class

# Commit #BCSOffers Next best offer NBO Final Rank Calculator
1 Matthew Jordan 2 Nebraska 38 43.43
2 Qua Searcy 7 Michigan State 6 6.13
3 Law Austin 3 South Carolina 10 11.16
4 Lance Austin 2 South Carolina 10 11.43
5 Trey Klock 4 Boston College 64 69.82
6 Tyler Merriweather 1 Northern Illinois 59 69.07
7 Step Durham 18 Michigan State 6 4.97
8 KeShun Freeman 11 Stanford 5 4.71
9 Jalen Johnson 1 Arkansas State 95 111.22
10 Tre Jackson* 1 None 45 52.68
11 Michael Preddy 5 Louisville 20 21.33
12 Jake Stickler 5 Missouri 7 7.47
13 Terrell Lewis 10 LSU 15 14.40
14 Jake Whitley 2 Marshall 61 69.71
15 Andrew Marshall 5 Duke 42 44.80
16 Gary Brown 9 Nebraska 38 37.22
17 Antonio Simmons* 1 None 90 105.37
18 CJ Leggett 4 UCLA 8 8.73
19 Kenderius Whitehead* 15 Michigan State 6 5.24
20 Clint Lynch* 1 None 120 140.49
21 Myles Autry 25 Florida State 1 0.74
Predicted 36.20

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

Was Simmons Parade all American and did not get an offer? Or am I thinking of someone else?

 

[Eric]

Was Simmons Parade all American and did not get an offer? Or am I thinking of someone else?

Simmons was an honorable mention...Nebraska offered him about two weeks ago FWIW.

 

[bat_082994]

I saw that they had Simmons was listed as a linebacker. I thought he was coming in as a DE

 

[wesleyd21]

I like this method of analysis much better. Why? Because it relies on actual facts and not some dipsh*t's opinion.

Nice work compadre.

 

[croberts]

This is great info. Thanks for taking the time. I always looked closer at offer sheets than ranking but you are taking the kids word on something that is not always the case. once again thanks for the insight and a new tool to help us understand. I hope it is not just me, but looking at our current class, I can only feel we have a great chance to develop more 1-8s in this group.

 

[croberts]

I've been working on compiling data on recruiting rankings to try to gauge more accurately expected results on the field based on the information available on recruits before they get on campus. Rather than relying on star ranking or evaluator ratings, I have always been more interested in offer sheets. This is an effort to try and quantify and value recruits based on offer sheets.

Methodology:
Using the Sagarin Rankings on signing day determine each player's next best offer. Then determine a points total for each player based on the # of BCS offers and ranking of next best offer;
(NBOrank*48)/(40+#BCSoffers)

To determine the class overall ranking, I averaged out the individual player rankings. This resulted in rankings which did not match our results; however, if you normalize for the number of players which are still on the team for their third season the results are surprisingly accurate:
(CLASSrank*19)/(#players_still_with_team)

Below are the results. As you see, for some players I messed around with their NBO rating as my memory differs from the recruiting sites' database on who was involved with the player. Feel free to tell me how stupid it is.

2007 Recruiting Analysis

# Commit #BCSOffers Next best offer NBO Final Rank Calculator
1 Joseph Gilbert 1 None* 32 37.46
2 Michael Peterson 4 BC 25 27.27
3 Jason Peters 6 Florida 1 1.04
4 Morgan Burnett 7 Auburn 11 11.23
5 Derrick Morgan 5 Ohio State 4 4.27
6 Albert Rocker 4 Louisville 5 5.45
7 Clyde Yandell 5 Florida 1 1.07
8 Josh Nesbitt 5 Auburn 11 11.73
9 Jonathan Dwyer 5 Florida 1 1.07
10 Nick Claytor 5 LSU 3 3.20
11 DJ Donley 5 Florida 1 1.07
12 Logan Walls 7 Auburn 11 11.23
13 Roddy Jones 4 Clemson 29 31.64
14 Willie White 5 Tenn 15 16.00
15 Kyle Jackson 3 Wake Forest 27 30.14
16 Mario Butler 7 Ohio State 4 4.09
17 Steven Threet 7 Wisconsin 9 9.19
18 Tyler Melton 1 AF, Iowa State, LouTech, Rice* 32 37.46
19 Brad Jefferson 2 Maryland (38) 38 43.43
20 Jerrard Tarrant 1 Duke, Vandy* 32 37.46
Predicted 15.46
2009 Actual 12


2008 Recruiting Analysis

# Commit #BCSOffers Next best offer NBO Final Rank Calculator
1 TJ Barnes 3 Auburn 13 14.51
2 Brandon Leslie 3 Utah 34 37.95
3 Jon Lockhart 5 USF 20 21.33
4 BJ Machen 7 WVU 3 3.06
5 Daniel McKayhan 1 Furman(107) 107 125.27
6 Nick McRae 4 UCF 46 50.18
7 Malcolm Munroe 8 Auburn 13 13.00
8 Emby Peeples 4 WVU 3 3.27
9 Rashaad Reid 7 Arkansas 25 25.53
10 Kamaron Riley 3 Vandy 54 60.28
11 Jaybo Shaw 1 AF 49 57.37
12 Quentin Sims 2 UVA 41 46.86
13 Phil Smith 2 Penn State 26 29.71
14 Steven Sylvester 6 VT 9 9.39
15 Cooper Taylor 3 UVA 41 45.77
16 Omoregie Uzzi 7 UGA 7 7.15
17 Tevin Washington 1 Arizona State 14 16.39
18 Richard Watson 6 Arizona State 14 14.61
19 Antonio Wilson 2 Vandy 54 61.71
20 Marcus Wright 1 Tulsa 65 76.10
Predicted 68.35
2010 Actual 70

I've been working on compiling data on recruiting rankings to try to gauge more accurately expected results on the field based on the information available on recruits before they get on campus. Rather than relying on star ranking or evaluator ratings, I have always been more interested in offer sheets. This is an effort to try and quantify and value recruits based on offer sheets.

Methodology:
Using the Sagarin Rankings on signing day determine each player's next best offer. Then determine a points total for each player based on the # of BCS offers and ranking of next best offer;
(NBOrank*48)/(40+#BCSoffers)

To determine the class overall ranking, I averaged out the individual player rankings. This resulted in rankings which did not match our results; however, if you normalize for the number of players which are still on the team for their third season the results are surprisingly accurate:
(CLASSrank*19)/(#players_still_with_team)

Below are the results. As you see, for some players I messed around with their NBO rating as my memory differs from the recruiting sites' database on who was involved with the player. Feel free to tell me how stupid it is.

2007 Recruiting Analysis

# Commit #BCSOffers Next best offer NBO Final Rank Calculator
1 Joseph Gilbert 1 None* 32 37.46
2 Michael Peterson 4 BC 25 27.27
3 Jason Peters 6 Florida 1 1.04
4 Morgan Burnett 7 Auburn 11 11.23
5 Derrick Morgan 5 Ohio State 4 4.27
6 Albert Rocker 4 Louisville 5 5.45
7 Clyde Yandell 5 Florida 1 1.07
8 Josh Nesbitt 5 Auburn 11 11.73
9 Jonathan Dwyer 5 Florida 1 1.07
10 Nick Claytor 5 LSU 3 3.20
11 DJ Donley 5 Florida 1 1.07
12 Logan Walls 7 Auburn 11 11.23
13 Roddy Jones 4 Clemson 29 31.64
14 Willie White 5 Tenn 15 16.00
15 Kyle Jackson 3 Wake Forest 27 30.14
16 Mario Butler 7 Ohio State 4 4.09
17 Steven Threet 7 Wisconsin 9 9.19
18 Tyler Melton 1 AF, Iowa State, LouTech, Rice* 32 37.46
19 Brad Jefferson 2 Maryland (38) 38 43.43
20 Jerrard Tarrant 1 Duke, Vandy* 32 37.46
Predicted 15.46
2009 Actual 12


2008 Recruiting Analysis

# Commit #BCSOffers Next best offer NBO Final Rank Calculator
1 TJ Barnes 3 Auburn 13 14.51
2 Brandon Leslie 3 Utah 34 37.95
3 Jon Lockhart 5 USF 20 21.33
4 BJ Machen 7 WVU 3 3.06
5 Daniel McKayhan 1 Furman(107) 107 125.27
6 Nick McRae 4 UCF 46 50.18
7 Malcolm Munroe 8 Auburn 13 13.00
8 Emby Peeples 4 WVU 3 3.27
9 Rashaad Reid 7 Arkansas 25 25.53
10 Kamaron Riley 3 Vandy 54 60.28
11 Jaybo Shaw 1 AF 49 57.37
12 Quentin Sims 2 UVA 41 46.86
13 Phil Smith 2 Penn State 26 29.71
14 Steven Sylvester 6 VT 9 9.39
15 Cooper Taylor 3 UVA 41 45.77
16 Omoregie Uzzi 7 UGA 7 7.15
17 Tevin Washington 1 Arizona State 14 16.39
18 Richard Watson 6 Arizona State 14 14.61
19 Antonio Wilson 2 Vandy 54 61.71
20 Marcus Wright 1 Tulsa 65 76.10
Predicted 68.35
2010 Actual 70

Resurrecting this, the prediction was 44.33 for this year and we finished 37 in Sagarin. I've done the same for our just signed class with similar adjustments based on when offers were made, etc.

2014 Recruiting Class

# Commit #BCSOffers Next best offer NBO Final Rank Calculator
1 Matthew Jordan 2 Nebraska 38 43.43
2 Qua Searcy 7 Michigan State 6 6.13
3 Law Austin 3 South Carolina 10 11.16
4 Lance Austin 2 South Carolina 10 11.43
5 Trey Klock 4 Boston College 64 69.82
6 Tyler Merriweather 1 Northern Illinois 59 69.07
7 Step Durham 18 Michigan State 6 4.97
8 KeShun Freeman 11 Stanford 5 4.71
9 Jalen Johnson 1 Arkansas State 95 111.22
10 Tre Jackson* 1 None 45 52.68
11 Michael Preddy 5 Louisville 20 21.33
12 Jake Stickler 5 Missouri 7 7.47
13 Terrell Lewis 10 LSU 15 14.40
14 Jake Whitley 2 Marshall 61 69.71
15 Andrew Marshall 5 Duke 42 44.80
16 Gary Brown 9 Nebraska 38 37.22
17 Antonio Simmons* 1 None 90 105.37
18 CJ Leggett 4 UCLA 8 8.73
19 Kenderius Whitehead* 15 Michigan State 6 5.24
20 Clint Lynch* 1 None 120 140.49
21 Myles Autry 25 Florida State 1 0.74
Predicted 36.20

 

[croberts]

We always refer back to the 2007 class as the one we want to strive for with good reason. I would love to look at it from another angle. Just say that we signed less and the class did not include Donley, Threat and Willie White, the production and 1-8 players stay the same, but just where would this class rank? We would not be talking about a top 20 class but we would be talking about the most productive class we would of had. Some of the negatives concerning CPJs class rank would not come up as people could no longer look at the recruiting ranking of Gailey . What am I thinking? They would then just say he could not get the 1-8s. I am looking through my tinted glasses but feel like the potential in the 2014 class has the 1-8s that we need to make this CPJs best class.

 

[awbuzz]

We always refer back to the 2007 class as the one we want to strive for with good reason. I would love to look at it from another angle. Just say that we signed less and the class did not include Donley, Threat and Willie White, the production and 1-8 players stay the same, but just where would this class rank? We would not be talking about a top 20 class but we would be talking about the most productive class we would of had. Some of the negatives concerning CPJs class rank would not come up as people could no longer look at the recruiting ranking of Gailey . What am I thinking? They would then just say he could not get the 1-8s. I am looking through my tinted glasses but feel like the potential in the 2014 class has the 1-8s that we need to make this CPJs best class.

Great point croberts.
Getting the 1 - 8 players does make a difference.