Coaching Acumen of the New Staff...

[Heisman's Ghost]

Jordan Yates says hi. Best qb recruit since Smoov. But I get your point about lb’s and dl’s.

And everybody is doing backflips about our new anointed one freshman rb, but the 3 dudes infront of him ain’t bendin’ the knee.

The lack of linemen say "Hello, back" It is imperative to improve the recruiting of both offensive and defensive linemen. I trust the new staff will remedy this over the next couple of years.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

Not that you in particular are inferring this, but I don't get the counter arguments being run out. Argument 1 is that CPJ couldn't recruit and that led to the downward trajectory of this program. Argument 2 is that GT is NOT devoid of talent and we should easily win minimum 6 games and maybe 7-8 next year even though our offensive recruits don't fit the new system.

That being said, and to get back to the point of this thread, I don't think TStan would have hired CGC if he didn't trust him as a HC. He has been nominated for the Broyles award three times, so, at least as a defensive coach, his credentials are impeccable. How he does as HC at a P5 school are unknown, but the prognosis is good. Will a poor showing next year or two mean anything? No. If he wins 8+ games I think we have lightning in a bottle. Either way, I'm as excited as anyone about the future.

If we win 8 games next year, there will be no question as to whether or not Coach Collins can develop and coach players. Most of our games fall in the realm of being near toss ups. We don't win a bunch of those without some serious shake and bake going on. If he wins 9 or more, he should be coach of the year and there will be seismic recordings from Midtown all the way to Athens.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

Jordan Yates says hi. Best qb recruit since Smoov. But I get your point about lb’s and dl’s.

And everybody is doing backflips about our new anointed one freshman rb, but the 3 dudes infront of him ain’t bendin’ the knee.

Yep. Jordan Yates has that IT factor that separates winners from also rans. He makes everyone around him want to play ball. Alabama had a quarterback like that back in the early 1960s named Pat Trammell. The Bear was asked by a reporter if Trammell was a great passer. Not particularly, said the Bear. Well, then is he a great runner? Not really said the Bear. Why is he the quarterback? He doesn't do anything but beat you and the boys will run through a wall for him. That is the kind of quarterback Yates will be.

 

[Novajacket]

Just look at what CPJ has to work with his transition year. Nesbitt, Dwyer, Bey Bey, Morgan, Walker, Burnett, and Young. He had a nice 9-4 season. CGC has maybe one or two close to that caliber with J Thomas and ? Both teams have/had rough OL transitions. I think we will have a good year at 6-6, but looking forward to seeing them fight.

 

[bravejason]

I think that the aggregate coaching acumen of the new staff is better than the prior staff. It’ll be lumpy, of course, with some positions upgrading and some downgrading. I’m not concerned about it.

I’m really more concerned about if Collins and company can match the scheme to the players. He said that is the goal, but every coach says that. To see them actually do it effectively is what I’m looking for. It’s primarily an issue on the offensive side of the ball, obviously.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

I think that the aggregate coaching acumen of the new staff is better than the prior staff. It’ll be lumpy, of course, with some positions upgrading and some downgrading. I’m not concerned about it.

I’m really more concerned about if Collins and company can match the scheme to the players. He said that is the goal, but every coach says that. To see them actually do it effectively is what I’m looking for. It’s primarily an issue on the offensive side of the ball, obviously.

Matching schemes to players means squat if you can’t block.

 

[stech81]

Matching schemes to players means squat if you can’t block.

But remember they won't be on the ground this year that should help

 

[bravejason]

Matching schemes to players means squat if you can’t block.

Then you have the wrong scheme for your players.

 

[GTRX7]

On the talent issue, a lot of folks are saying that CPJ walked into a program with loads more talent than CGC. This largely seems to be based on the stars from 2007.

I was curious to look at, not just the star players from 2007, but whether the data shows that CPJ really did walk into a lot more talent than CGC is walking into. I seem to remember some past analysis that, while Chan was getting more "difference makers" (i.e. high star recruits), our overall recruiting talent was deeper across the board under CPJ. I thus compared the overall level of recruiting for the four years before CPJ (04-07) and the four years before CGC (15-18). I used Scout/247 rankings. Here are the results:

04-07
Average Class Rank = 48
Average Player Rating = 0.813
4-Star and Above = 7
2-Star and Below = 37

15-18
Average Class Rank = 51.5
Average Player Rating = 0.841
4-Star and Above = 3
2-Star and Below = 6

The data above supports the conclusion that CGC may be walking into a deeper and overall more talented roster than CPJ, but with less difference makers/stars.

(However, the extreme disparity between the number of 2-stars from CCG to 2-stars under CPJ does make me wonder if Scout/247 changed their rankings over the years, creating more 3-star players overall? Otherwise, CPJ really did make a huge step up in the average level of talent.)

 

[smathis30]

On the talent issue, a lot of folks are saying that CPJ walked into a program with loads more talent than CGC. This largely seems to be based on the stars from 2007.

I was curious to look at, not just the star players from 2007, but whether the data shows that CPJ really did walk into a lot more talent than CGC is walking into. I seem to remember some past analysis that, while Chan was getting more "difference makers" (i.e. high star recruits), our overall recruiting talent was deeper across the board under CPJ. I thus compared the overall level of recruiting for the four years before CPJ (04-07) and the four years before CGC (15-18). I used Scout/247 rankings. Here are the results:

04-07
Average Class Rank = 48
Average Player Rating = 0.813
4-Star and Above = 7
2-Star and Below = 37

15-18
Average Class Rank = 51.5
Average Player Rating = 0.841
4-Star and Above = 3
2-Star and Below = 6

The data above supports the conclusion that CGC may be walking into a deeper and overall more talented roster than CPJ, but with less difference makers/stars.

(However, the extreme disparity between the number of 2-stars from CCG to 2-stars under CPJ does make me wonder if Scout/247 changed their rankings over the years, creating more 3-star players overall? Otherwise, CPJ really did make a huge step up in the average level of talent.)

Also if note:
GT All Acc players 2007: 9 (ACC rank: 1st. Overall. More than Miami, VT, FSU and Clemson)
GT All Acc players 2018: 2 (ACC rank: 12th)

NFL Draft picks 3 previous years:
2006-2008: 8. GT average for ~20 years and about average for a P5 program as well.
2017-2019: 1. Worst 3 year stretch in GT history.

NFL draft picks on roster:
2008 team: 9/10
2019 team: TBD.
https://www.draftsite.com/nfl/mock-draft/2020/
is one of the only sites i see that actually gives a fleshed out full draft. GT has for 2020: Kenny Cooper (52) Jahziel Lee (190 OT?) and Krivonte Benson (207) which is obviously out of date, so take it witha grain of salt. Parker is at 90 for Texas.
No one on the 2021 mock, but thats only a first round mock at this point.

Returning starters:
2008: 9 (5 off, 4 def, 2 preseason all americans)
2019: 7 (4 off, 3 def, 0 preseason all americans)

Not much of a difference there, but in Phill Steeles 2008 preview, he said he expected GT to be good, but 2009 or 2010 was the year to start clicking.
http://www.southernpigskin.com/archives/phil_steele_on_the_acc/

2008 projections:
http://preseason.stassen.com/consensus/2008.html
Almost universally selected to be 4th place, which we were 1 game out of, which isnt a terrible prediction IMO. GT Definitely exceeded expectations. Moreso has to do with the fact that 5 teams on average finish within 1 game of .500 play in the coastal, so tie breakers have a huge impact on standings, as i showed in another post.

GT should be able to exceed some of the expectations, but the rosters the two coaches are very very different IMO.

 

[knoxjacket]

On the talent issue, a lot of folks are saying that CPJ walked into a program with loads more talent than CGC. This largely seems to be based on the stars from 2007.

I was curious to look at, not just the star players from 2007, but whether the data shows that CPJ really did walk into a lot more talent than CGC is walking into. I seem to remember some past analysis that, while Chan was getting more "difference makers" (i.e. high star recruits), our overall recruiting talent was deeper across the board under CPJ. I thus compared the overall level of recruiting for the four years before CPJ (04-07) and the four years before CGC (15-18). I used Scout/247 rankings. Here are the results:

04-07
Average Class Rank = 48
Average Player Rating = 0.813
4-Star and Above = 7
2-Star and Below = 37

15-18
Average Class Rank = 51.5
Average Player Rating = 0.841
4-Star and Above = 3
2-Star and Below = 6

The data above supports the conclusion that CGC may be walking into a deeper and overall more talented roster than CPJ, but with less difference makers/stars.

(However, the extreme disparity between the number of 2-stars from CCG to 2-stars under CPJ does make me wonder if Scout/247 changed their rankings over the years, creating more 3-star players overall? Otherwise, CPJ really did make a huge step up in the average level of talent.)

I don't think there is single position group that we are better at now than we were in 2008. We had NFL talent all over the field.

 

[AlabamaBuzz]

Matching schemes to players means squat if you can’t block.

And, simultaneously on the defensive side of the ball, "if you can't get off blocks".

 

[gtwcf]

On the talent issue, a lot of folks are saying that CPJ walked into a program with loads more talent than CGC. This largely seems to be based on the stars from 2007.

I was curious to look at, not just the star players from 2007, but whether the data shows that CPJ really did walk into a lot more talent than CGC is walking into. I seem to remember some past analysis that, while Chan was getting more "difference makers" (i.e. high star recruits), our overall recruiting talent was deeper across the board under CPJ. I thus compared the overall level of recruiting for the four years before CPJ (04-07) and the four years before CGC (15-18). I used Scout/247 rankings. Here are the results:

04-07
Average Class Rank = 48
Average Player Rating = 0.813
4-Star and Above = 7
2-Star and Below = 37

15-18
Average Class Rank = 51.5
Average Player Rating = 0.841
4-Star and Above = 3
2-Star and Below = 6

The data above supports the conclusion that CGC may be walking into a deeper and overall more talented roster than CPJ, but with less difference makers/stars.

(However, the extreme disparity between the number of 2-stars from CCG to 2-stars under CPJ does make me wonder if Scout/247 changed their rankings over the years, creating more 3-star players overall? Otherwise, CPJ really did make a huge step up in the average level of talent.)

Rivals and Scout/247 basically made anyone who signed P5 a 3*, probably to appease the masses who give them money....

 

[GTRX7]

I don't think there is single position group that we are better at now than we were in 2008. We had NFL talent all over the field.

Seems to pretty much entirely miss the point of the analysis I posted. That may be true that the top 10 players in 2008 were substantially better than in 2018, but can the same be said for the non-stars, the second string, the practice squad, etc.? The data I posted indicates that we were running a huge number of 2-stars to fill in gaps and in backup positions. Today, those players are 3-stars. Again, maybe recruiting ranking has changed, but I would think having 1/3 of your roster average a whole star higher would seem to me to be meaningful difference in terms of overall talent.

 

[GTRX7]

Also if note:
GT All Acc players 2007: 9 (ACC rank: 1st. Overall. More than Miami, VT, FSU and Clemson)
GT All Acc players 2018: 2 (ACC rank: 12th)

NFL Draft picks 3 previous years:
2006-2008: 8. GT average for ~20 years and about average for a P5 program as well.
2017-2019: 1. Worst 3 year stretch in GT history.

NFL draft picks on roster:
2008 team: 9/10
2019 team: TBD.
https://www.draftsite.com/nfl/mock-draft/2020/
is one of the only sites i see that actually gives a fleshed out full draft. GT has for 2020: Kenny Cooper (52) Jahziel Lee (190 OT?) and Krivonte Benson (207) which is obviously out of date, so take it witha grain of salt. Parker is at 90 for Texas.
No one on the 2021 mock, but thats only a first round mock at this point.

Returning starters:
2008: 9 (5 off, 4 def, 2 preseason all americans)
2019: 7 (4 off, 3 def, 0 preseason all americans)

Not much of a difference there, but in Phill Steeles 2008 preview, he said he expected GT to be good, but 2009 or 2010 was the year to start clicking.
http://www.southernpigskin.com/archives/phil_steele_on_the_acc/

2008 projections:
http://preseason.stassen.com/consensus/2008.html
Almost universally selected to be 4th place, which we were 1 game out of, which isnt a terrible prediction IMO. GT Definitely exceeded expectations. Moreso has to do with the fact that 5 teams on average finish within 1 game of .500 play in the coastal, so tie breakers have a huge impact on standings, as i showed in another post.

GT should be able to exceed some of the expectations, but the rosters the two coaches are very very different IMO.

To be fair, I think the All ACC selections and NFL draft picks had more to do with how we ran our offense than with the quality of college players we had.

Or again, it would seem to me that anyone arguing that we have had historically low talent over the last few years would also need to acknowledge that we must have had one of the best coaches in the country, as we had both a winning overall and winning record in the ACC over the last three years, including wins over UGA, Miami, Virginia Tech, Louisville, etc. Hard to do that I would think with talent that is 12th in the ACC, but maybe that is just me.

I tend to think we had pretty good/comparable talent to the rest of the ACC, excluding FSU and Clemson, and that our coach was good, but had substantial limitations as well.

I also think CCG is getting a deeper roster than CPJ, but with less "stars." I think it is fair to argue that is worse overall, but one would need to acknowledge the better depth aspect in making a reasonable comparison.

 

[smathis30]

To be fair, I think the All ACC selections and NFL draft picks had more to do with how we ran our offense than with the quality of college players we had.

Or again, it would seem to me that anyone arguing that we have had historically low talent over the last few years would also need to acknowledge that we must have had one of the best coaches in the country, as we had both a winning overall and winning record in the ACC over the last three years, including wins over UGA, Miami, Virginia Tech, Louisville, etc. Hard to do that I would think with talent that is 12th in the ACC, but maybe that is just me.

I tend to think we had pretty good/comparable talent to the rest of the ACC, excluding FSU and Clemson, and that our coach was good, but had substantial limitations as well.

I also think CCG is getting a deeper roster than CPJ, but with less "stars." I think it is fair to argue that is worse overall, but one would need to acknowledge the better depth aspect in making a reasonable comparison.

Wholeheartedly disagree. NFL gets the best players end of discussion. They evaluate talent. Scheme hurts, but it hurts who comes to GT more than who goes from GT to the nfl. We have the 4th most ACC wins in the coastal since it expanded to 7 teams and the 5th most since Narduzzi took over and has led Pitt to the 3rd most conference wins since hes been here, trailing just Miami and Clemson. I won’t disagree that our young guys show talent, but it’s the older guys that start and star power is what wins games not depth. If your 3rd WR is great but never plays a down than what difference does it make?

We’ve also been in far and out the worst division in college football, so saying someone who took a division where 5 teams are within 2 games of each other creates a lot of parity. As much as everyone likes to point to GT being .500, Miami post sanctions has been more competitive and both VT and Pitt have each only had 1 sub 500 season in their entire tenures in the ACC. It’s filled with a ton of mediocre teams, which is why it has the longest conference title drought. Not being bad isn’t a sign of a good coach, it can be a sign of other teams being bad too.

 

[smathis30]

Seems to pretty much entirely miss the point of the analysis I posted. That may be true that the top 10 players in 2008 were substantially better than in 2018, but can the same be said for the non-stars, the second string, the practice squad, etc.? The data I posted indicates that we were running a huge number of 2-stars to fill in gaps and in backup positions. Today, those players are 3-stars. Again, maybe recruiting ranking has changed, but I would think having 1/3 of your roster average a whole star higher would seem to me to be meaningful difference in terms of overall talent.

They have changed how they do it and with now multi million dollar investments from CBS into 247 and Yahoo into Rivals, there is way more information today through camps, funding to go to games, and other things that simply didn’t exist back then. In the era of online recruiting services, we’ve really only had one coach who we can judge as Gailey was there when it was just getting started at the end of his term

 

[lv20gt]

Seems to pretty much entirely miss the point of the analysis I posted. That may be true that the top 10 players in 2008 were substantially better than in 2018, but can the same be said for the non-stars, the second string, the practice squad, etc.? The data I posted indicates that we were running a huge number of three stars to fill in gaps and in backup positions. Today, those players are 3 stars. Again, maybe recruiting ranking has changed, but I would think having 1/3 of your roster average a whole star higher would seem to me to be meaningful difference in terms of talent.

The 2008 team was largely similar in talent to the team we have now outside of the top 10 or so players. But that is a big difference. That team not only had raw talent, it had a lot of the pieces needed to make the transition smooth. The inherited DL was full of studs across the board. All 4 starters would go on to the NFL. We held our first 7 opponents all to 20 or less and won 6 of those games and it wasn't really until game 11 against miami that the offense started to click. If we didn't have those 4 DLmen, and if our defense was the usual Johnson defense we are probably looking at 3 or 4 more losses. Furthermore on offense we had 3 players that were capable of getting production somewhat outside a system. Dwyer and Nesbitt were both very strong runners capable of getting production even when blocking wasn't there and Thomas was a big, physical receiver who could reliably go get a ball without it being on target. Those things were able to cover a lot of the transition woes we experienced on offense and then were able to really put things in high gear once the rest of the team was able to get used to the new system.

This year the defense is not in a position to be able to do that again. We might have a secondary similar to the DL of 2008 but a great secondary isn't going to have as much impact by themselves as a great DL. Offensively we do have the advantage of retrospect in regards to Nesbitt and Thomas being so good for transitioning to the option. Right now everyone should be worried about OL. Even if you subscribe to the "they are athletes who should eb able to adjust" belief, it still requires reps and compared to the rest of the nation we don't have the collective reps on the OL with what we will be asking them to do that most teams do. At QB maybe we have a guy who is great for transitioning as well, being able to use his feet to extend plays and get away from the inevitable pressure that will come. I don't see much reason to think we have one though. At WR we are completely unproven. At RB we have plenty of good options and should be okay in that regards. What we don't know is if someone will be able to step up and be the "carry the offense on his back" like Dwyer and Nesbitt did at times in 08.

Overall we might be a deeper team, but it's the top of the talent list that makes transitions easier.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

Wholeheartedly disagree. NFL gets the best players end of discussion. They evaluate talent. Scheme hurts, but it hurts who comes to GT more than who goes from GT to the nfl. We have the 4th most ACC wins in the coastal since it expanded to 7 teams and the 5th most since Narduzzi took over and has led Pitt to the 3rd most conference wins since hes been here, trailing just Miami and Clemson. I won’t disagree that our young guys show talent, but it’s the older guys that start and star power is what wins games not depth. If your 3rd WR is great but never plays a down than what difference does it make?

We’ve also been in far and out the worst division in college football, so saying someone who took a division where 5 teams are within 2 games of each other creates a lot of parity. As much as everyone likes to point to GT being .500, Miami post sanctions has been more competitive and both VT and Pitt have each only had 1 sub 500 season in their entire tenures in the ACC. It’s filled with a ton of mediocre teams, which is why it has the longest conference title drought. Not being bad isn’t a sign of a good coach, it can be a sign of other teams being bad too.

The Coastal has been no where near the worst division in college football over the past decade. That’s just plain ridiculous!

 

[smathis30]

The Coastal has been no where near the worst division in college football over the past decade. That’s just plain ridiculous!

not every individual year, but its body of work as a whole can definitely be argued.