Article CFP unanimously approves 5+7 model for new 12-team playoff

[awbuzz]

58% of the spoils goes to B1G and SEC...

The new revenue model will significantly benefit the Big Ten and SEC, launching them firmly ahead of the Big 12 and ACC moving forward.
The new contract will pay the Big Ten and SEC 29% of the upcoming contract, sources tell Dodd, which works out to approximately $22 million per school.
The ACC will receive 17% ($13-14 million per school) and the
Big 12 will sit around 15% ($12 million per school).

A sad sad day...

 

[awbuzz]

Some other tidbits:
The ACC will receive a slightly higher payout in the next contract as the league has produced eight CFP semifinalists to only two in the continuing Big 12, according to ESPN.
The proposed contract includes a "look-in" clause that allows the CFP to adjust payouts in 2028 based on performance, or if there is another round of realignment.

 

[stinger78]

58% of the spoils goes to B1G and SEC...

The new revenue model will significantly benefit the Big Ten and SEC, launching them firmly ahead of the Big 12 and ACC moving forward.
The new contract will pay the Big Ten and SEC 29% of the upcoming contract, sources tell Dodd, which works out to approximately $22 million per school.
The ACC will receive 17% ($13-14 million per school) and the
Big 12 will sit around 15% ($12 million per school).

A sad sad day...

Yes, it is., yet we have numerous fonts on this board defending this approach.

 

[awbuzz]

"As part of that model, the Big Ten and SEC sought to be guaranteed the only two byes in the bracket on an annual basis with their respective conference champions immediately advancing to the second week of play."

Tells me they are scared to run the gauntlet. Why not just automatically advance them to the Championship game and all others are playing for 3rd place?

 

[stinger78]

Some other tidbits:
The ACC will receive a slightly higher payout in the next contract as the league has produced eight CFP semifinalists to only two in the continuing Big 12, according to ESPN.
The proposed contract includes a "look-in" clause that allows the CFP to adjust payouts in 2028 based on performance, or if there is another round of realignment.

This is a good thing, if it is truly adjustable. I would prefer some auto criteria that would force predetermined adjustments. Actually, I would prefer an even-Steven approach but that doesn't seem to be going to happen.

 

[Techster]

CFP to be approved for 14 teams.

College Football Playoff expected to approve expansion as FBS leaders agree on revenue distribution

The 14-team CFP would begin at the start of a new television contract in the 2026 season

www.cbssports.com

The funny part is it hasn't been decided yet how the bids will be divvied up - just that there will be 14 of them. It was also decided the revenue splits.

B1G and SEC get 29% each
ACC gets 17% (approx $13-14M per team)
B12 gets 15%
G5 gets 9%
Independents get 1% With most going to ND (approx $12M)

By agreeing on the number of teams and the revenue distribution they can now finalize an extension with ESPN.

Gonna play some fun "reading the tea leaves" here. According to that article:

The proposed contract includes a "look-in" clause that allows the CFP to adjust payouts in 2028 based on performance, or if there is another round of realignment.

Big 12's new deal ends in 2030-2031 season
B1G's deal ends in 2029-2030 season.
SEC's deal ends in 2033-2034 season.

If reports are true that ESPN can opt out of the ACC deal in 2027...the timing of the CFP deal with ESPN that has that clause makes you go

BTW, for the "ACC deal is very profitable for ESPN" crowd: You know what's more profitable? Not having to pay the majority of the ACC schools at all if ESPN can move some strategic ACC schools to the SEC.

 

[Sugar3ThousandPounds]

Some other tidbits:
The ACC will receive a slightly higher payout in the next contract as the league has produced eight CFP semifinalists to only two in the continuing Big 12, according to ESPN.
The proposed contract includes a "look-in" clause that allows the CFP to adjust payouts in 2028 based on performance, or if there is another round of realignment.

To be clear, I think it's dumb that the revenue distribution is unequal. All P4 should get equal payouts.

That said, if we're going to base payouts on past CFP performance and predicted future performance, how is the ACC roughly equal to the Big XII? The Big XII's flagship football program next fall will be what, Utah? Oklahoma State? Colorado w/ Coach Prime? Clemson and FSU may very well be out of the ACC by 2028 if not sooner, but it's frustrating how these payouts treat the ACC as if they're already gone.

 

[Richard7125]

That’s the point people are making that you keep ignoring. The narrative that the SEC is better top-to-bottom feeds the good loss if a top team loses a game to the lower middle SEC team. Whereas a top ACC team losing a conference game to a middling team is a bad loss. Right or not, that’s an issue.

I agree with your "good loss" comment. That definitely happens, but I don't think it drives the narrative quite as much as the SEC winning the national championship at a 75% clip from 6 different teams. But, again, i agree with your good loss comment.

 

[stinger78]

To be clear, I think it's dumb that the revenue distribution is unequal. All P4 should get equal payouts.

That said, if we're going to base payouts on past CFP performance and predicted future performance, how is the ACC roughly equal to the Big XII? The Big XII's flagship football program next fall will be what, Utah? Oklahoma State? Colorado w/ Coach Prime? Clemson and FSU may very well be out of the ACC by 2028 if not sooner, but it's frustrating how these payouts treat the ACC as if they're already gone.

The whole process is frustrating to me.

 

[Richard7125]

CFP to be approved for 14 teams.

College Football Playoff expected to approve expansion as FBS leaders agree on revenue distribution

The 14-team CFP would begin at the start of a new television contract in the 2026 season

www.cbssports.com

The funny part is it hasn't been decided yet how the bids will be divvied up - just that there will be 14 of them. It was also decided the revenue splits.

B1G and SEC get 29% each
ACC gets 17% (approx $13-14M per team)
B12 gets 15%
G5 gets 9%
Independents get 1% With most going to ND (approx $12M)

By agreeing on the number of teams and the revenue distribution they can now finalize an extension with ESPN.

I posted this on another board, but when i saw the percentages, it struck me that it breaks out as if the SEC/Big10 are getting the equivalent of 4 teams in each (28.75%). The ACC is getting 2.4 teams in (17%). The Big12 is getting the equivalent of 2.1 teams in (15%). G5 is getting 1.25 teams in. I don't know if this is the right way to look at it, but that's how it struck me.

 

[stinger78]

I agree with your "good loss" comment. That definitely happens, but I don't think it drives the narrative quite as much as the SEC winning the national championship at a 75% clip from 6 different teams. But, again, i agree with your good loss comment.

Dropping all epithets, the SEC is a very good conference. So are the B1G, the ACC, and the B12. It’s why they’re all called Power 5 conferences. Sadly, so was the P12, but all the narratives and money tore it apart. It’s a microcosm of CFB as a whole, IMPO.

The ACC won the H2H this year with the SEC and the two (2) SEC teams in the CFP both lost their semi games. Do they lose a little luster because of that? Heck no! Yet, when they win, they are all-powerful. The down years need to balance out the good years. And the other conference good years need to be celebrated.

Know who’s won the second most CFP’s? You may have to look it up.

 

[Richard7125]

Yes, it is., yet we have numerous fonts on this board defending this approach.

It’s not just people on this board defending this approach; it was agreed to by all of the conferences and schools too. Talented (highly compensated) people whose job includes making things like this work out. Would I prefer the ACC, SEC, Big10, and Big 12 all get equal payments, sure; but that’s not dealing in reality. Would I prefer every conference get equal number of teams in the playoffs, not really because I don’t think the playoffs would be as good.

 

[roadkill]

I posted this on another board, but when i saw the percentages, it struck me that it breaks out as if the SEC/Big10 are getting the equivalent of 4 teams in each (28.75%). The ACC is getting 2.4 teams in (17%). The Big12 is getting the equivalent of 2.1 teams in (15%). G5 is getting 1.25 teams in. I don't know if this is the right way to look at it, but that's how it struck me.

This won’t end the debate over what revenue distribution is fair, but being an engineer, I attempted to take another objective view of this by answering the following question:

Based on their 2024 Conference members, what percentage would each conference have contributed to a 14-team playoff over the past 20 seasons? This approach relates to media revenue associated with the CFP, although it ignores relative fanbase size which tends to favor the SEC and B1G. Another thing I didn’t take the time to do was to make the CFP placements weighted by rank. This would have favored the SEC and B1G even more.

Conf.	Ave teams/yr	Contribution	Payout
SEC	4.7	34%	29%
B1G	4.1	29%	29%
ACC	2.1	15%	17%
B12	2.25	16%	15%
ND	0.4	3%	1%
G5 (total)	0.45	3%	9%

Aside from the G5, where the payout gets diluted substantially by their 65 schools, there is one clear winner – the ACC. Another thing to note is that the ACC’s playoff appearances were boosted by Stanford’s run in the early teens.

We need to remember we are discussing an entertainment business revenue model here. I see nothing in the payout percentages for the ACC to complain about. Conferences are not equal for revenue purposes.

 

[forensicbuzz]

It’s not just people on this board defending this approach; it was agreed to by all of the conferences and schools too. Talented (highly compensated) people whose job includes making things like this work out. Would I prefer the ACC, SEC, Big10, and Big 12 all get equal payments, sure; but that’s not dealing in reality. Would I prefer every conference get equal number of teams in the playoffs, not really because I don’t think the playoffs would be as good.

It was a negotiation. That doesn't mean that everyone agrees that it's right or is defending it. There is absolutely no question that the SEC and B1G bullied their way through to get a bigger share. Do they deserve it? Maybe. But, I'm afraid this is going to set up the CFP polls to lean toward the SEC/B1G because of that. We'll see how it plays out.

 

[g0lftime]

It was a negotiation. That doesn't mean that everyone agrees that it's right or is defending it. There is absolutely no question that the SEC and B1G bullied their way through to get a bigger share. Do they deserve it? Maybe. But, I'm afraid this is going to set up the CFP polls to lean toward the SEC/B1G because of that. We'll see how it plays out.

The way things are done these days, the whole payout structure will likely end up in court anyway. B12 or a G5 school will challenge the equity of payout.
I don't see how this can be structured as is based on current status. Who knows how long the SEC will be the darling of ESPN. CFB could change significantly with NIL , players becoming employees, teams opting to form a different college athletic association than the NCAA. government intervention, etc.

 

[Buzzmaster]

So if Notre Dame is 12-0 and ranked #1 in the country, they can be no higher than the 5 seed

Notre Dame should either join all in including football or be forced out of the ACC. It's not fair to the rest of the league. Just my thoughts.

 

[Root4GT]

Notre Dame should either join all in including football or be forced out of the ACC. It's not fair to the rest of the league. Just my thoughts.

They won’t be forced out by the ACC.

 

[awbuzz]

This won’t end the debate over what revenue distribution is fair, but being an engineer, I attempted to take another objective view of this by answering the following question:

Based on their 2024 Conference members, what percentage would each conference have contributed to a 14-team playoff over the past 20 seasons? This approach relates to media revenue associated with the CFP, although it ignores relative fanbase size which tends to favor the SEC and B1G. Another thing I didn’t take the time to do was to make the CFP placements weighted by rank. This would have favored the SEC and B1G even more.

Conf.	Ave teams/yr	Contribution	Payout
SEC	4.7	34%	29%
B1G	4.1	29%	29%
ACC	2.1	15%	17%
B12	2.25	16%	15%
ND	0.4	3%	1%
G5 (total)	0.45	3%	9%

Aside from the G5, where the payout gets diluted substantially by their 65 schools, there is one clear winner – the ACC. Another thing to note is that the ACC’s playoff appearances were boosted by Stanford’s run in the early teens.

We need to remember we are discussing an entertainment business revenue model here. I see nothing in the payout percentages for the ACC to complain about. Conferences are not equal for revenue purposes.

I. e. Similar to how the Basketball Tournament handles payouts.

 

[roadkill]

I. e. Similar to how the Basketball Tournament handles payouts.

Sort of. You could argue that the NCAA BB Tournament method, which pays conferences based on the number of games their teams play for each season's contest, would be fairer. This is because it pays based on current performance, rather than historical conference strength.
Of course, if the lower-tier conferences accept getting relegated to fewer auto-bids, it would bake in a lack of payout parity to start with. It would still be possible for the ACC to get an equal payout to the SEC and B1G under this type of system if they dominated the at-large bids, but history says that is extremely unlikely.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Notre Dame should either join all in including football or be forced out of the ACC. It's not fair to the rest of the league. Just my thoughts.

ESPN gets 5 Notre Dame games a year when they play ACC opponents. That drives our TV value up. While it's a unique arrangement, it works in our favor as we can guarantee ESPN those games on a yearly basis.