Article CFP unanimously approves 5+7 model for new 12-team playoff

stinger78

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One point of contention with your summary…
The case wasn’t made for WHICH 3-loss teams get the nod over other 3-loss teams,it was about whether or not 3-loss teams were getting in over 2-loss teams. The examples of the latter are relatively few.
In years like ‘14 and ‘16, there were no 2-loss teams to leave out, so 3-loss teams had to get in by default.
The most egregious example would be 2017 Auburn, but that team picked up their third loss in the SEC championship and had beaten both #2 uGA and #1 Bama.
BUT if your point is that the 3-loss SEC teams get the nod over 3-loss teams from other conferences, there is no disagreement from me.
It is my basic contention, but I'm not sure your data confirms that. As was noted in the response to my post above, the 3 SECheat 3-loss teams are actually only about .3 per year over a 10-year period. That's still higher than the rest, but perhaps not significant. However, the sample size in this study is so small, it still may be statistically significant.
 

CEB

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It is my basic contention, but I'm not sure your data confirms that. As was noted in the response to my post above, the 3 SECheat 3-loss teams are actually only about .3 per year over a 10-year period. That's still higher than the rest, but perhaps not significant. However, the sample size in this study is so small, it still may be statistically significant.
Maybe it’s the start of a trend? Not sure the data even confirms that though…

I think the only real takeaway is that the preseason and early season rankings seem to be quite biased but the course of the season largely brings things into perspective for the CFP ranking. There has not been as gross a bias as we want to believe by the time the season ends, BUT there also hasn’t been any real incentive for biased rankings beyond the Top 4 (which have been pretty cut and dried until this year).
It will be interesting to see if / how that changes next year when seeds 10-12 become so much more critical than 3-5. It’s also going to be a far more subjective ranking for those 10-12 spots… the 1-4 seeds often shook out in actual matchups during conference championships. The 10-12 seeds likely will not have many (any) similar opponents or conference championships to tip the scale
 

stinger78

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Maybe it’s the start of a trend? Not sure the data even confirms that though…

I think the only real takeaway is that the preseason and early season rankings seem to be quite biased but the course of the season largely brings things into perspective for the CFP ranking. There has not been as gross a bias as we want to believe by the time the season ends, BUT there also hasn’t been any real incentive for biased rankings beyond the Top 4 (which have been pretty cut and dried until this year).
It will be interesting to see if / how that changes next year when seeds 10-12 become so much more critical than 3-5. It’s also going to be a far more subjective ranking for those 10-12 spots… the 1-4 seeds often shook out in actual matchups during conference championships. The 10-12 seeds likely will not have many (any) similar opponents or conference championships to tip the scale
I think you’re spot on. However, there have been some concerning decisions. Alabama has been the recipient on a couple of occasions. Once they won it all and in 2023 they lost their semi. Seldom, if at all, has there been a clearly dominant team wrt the other top 4-6 teams, so any of them “could” win. So, expansion beyond 4 is a good thing. My personal opinion is 8 is the optimum - like the CWS.
 

SOWEGA Jacket

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Maybe it’s the start of a trend? Not sure the data even confirms that though…

I think the only real takeaway is that the preseason and early season rankings seem to be quite biased but the course of the season largely brings things into perspective for the CFP ranking. There has not been as gross a bias as we want to believe by the time the season ends, BUT there also hasn’t been any real incentive for biased rankings beyond the Top 4 (which have been pretty cut and dried until this year).
It will be interesting to see if / how that changes next year when seeds 10-12 become so much more critical than 3-5. It’s also going to be a far more subjective ranking for those 10-12 spots… the 1-4 seeds often shook out in actual matchups during conference championships. The 10-12 seeds likely will not have many (any) similar opponents or conference championships to tip the scale
Exactly. We are about to witness things we’ve never seen because 5-12 now matters. It’s going to be another crazy chapter in this sport. The month of November will be like watching 30 cars all coming to pit row with 2 laps left. The difference is which media talking head is better than the other guys talking head. And you better not let your center get injured because that’s now a legit reason to move you down.
 

Lil G

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And you better not let your center get injured because that’s now a legit reason to move you down.
I don’t think the severity of the Jordan Travis situation really hit me until I read this.

Im afraid 2023 was just hitting the tip of the iceberg for the increasingly subjective rankings instead of results based rankings.
 

SOWEGA Jacket

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I don’t think the severity of the Jordan Travis situation really hit me until I read this.

Im afraid 2023 was just hitting the tip of the iceberg for the increasingly subjective rankings instead of results based rankings.
Glad to see many waking up but it’s NEVER been results based. If so, why do preseason polls exist because they have zero results based data. It’s like saying the Braves will win the World Series when we’ve all seen it doesn’t work like that.

And to follow up, why after week 1 when 65 teams are 1-0 and 65 teams are 0-1, do we see teams who are 0-1 ranked above teams 1-0 if its results based? It’s always about opinion and money. That’s why Bama can lose game 1 to Texas and barely move down. If it was results based they would have dropped out of the top 25 until they had results to move back in. Next year UGA would have to lose 4 games before they drop out of the polls. When we beat FSU we’ll probably still be unranked.
 

Richard7125

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It’s why I used the term “if.” You could make the same assertion about 1 and 2-loss teams as well.
Yes, but your whole premise was based on that "if". Perhaps i'm misreading your posts, but you seem to want to treat every team identically. I keep picturing your arguments like you're comparing every team to the pieces on a checkerboard when it would be much more appropriate to compare them to the different pieces on a chessboard.
 

stinger78

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Yes, but your whole premise was based on that "if". Perhaps i'm misreading your posts, but you seem to want to treat every team identically. I keep picturing your arguments like you're comparing every team to the pieces on a checkerboard when it would be much more appropriate to compare them to the different pieces on a chessboard.
I’m not sure what you mean here. Of course all teams are different. That is really part of my premise. In fact, it is the Cartel that seems to want to treat all conference teams as if they are all Alabama or Ohio State. If Wake beats Vandy that’s an ACC win over the SEC just as much as an FSU win over LSU.
 

Root4GT

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I’m not sure what you mean here. Of course all teams are different. That is really part of my premise. In fact, it is the Cartel that seems to want to treat all conference teams as if they are all Alabama or Ohio State. If Wake beats Vandy that’s an ACC win over the SEC just as much as an FSU win over LSU.
No it is not not is it if Vandy beats Wake. That is where your position falls apart. What matters id if Clemson beats Georgia this coming season or if Georgia beats Clemson. The Loser's conference will suffer. The ACC moreso than the SEC as the ACC has few peers to Clemson over the past 7 or so years where the SEC has several peers to Georgia over that time frame.
 

Vespidae

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No it is not not is it if Vandy beats Wake. That is where your position falls apart. What matters id if Clemson beats Georgia this coming season or if Georgia beats Clemson. The Loser's conference will suffer. The ACC moreso than the SEC as the ACC has few peers to Clemson over the past 7 or so years where the SEC has several peers to Georgia over that time frame.
It’s pointless to compare a conference leading FSU (13-1) beating a 7-5 LSU team as evidence of conference superiority. Its equally pointless to declare a 4-8 Wake Forest team beating a 2-10 Vanderbilt team as evidence of conference superiority.

One can argue about the best conference in college football on a year-to-year basis, but one cannot argue with the success of the SEC in the national title games. Somehow, though, the argument always falls to “But we beat Vandy!” (Sigh)
 

stinger78

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It’s pointless to compare a conference leading FSU (13-1) beating a 7-5 LSU team as evidence of conference superiority. Its equally pointless to declare a 4-8 Wake Forest team beating a 2-10 Vanderbilt team as evidence of conference superiority.

One can argue about the best conference in college football on a year-to-year basis, but one cannot argue with the success of the SEC in the national title games. Somehow, though, the argument always falls to “But we beat Vandy!” (Sigh)
No it’s not. It’s a discussion of *conference* superiority not team superiority. It is quite possible for a conference to have 2-3 dominant teams but the rest of the conference be rather weak.

In 2019, UVA won the NCAAT. Duke also made the E8. UNC, FSU, and VPI all made the S16, yet overall, the conference was not considered particularly strong.
 

Vespidae

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No it’s not. It’s a discussion of *conference* superiority not team superiority. It is quite possible for a conference to have 2-3 dominant teams but the rest of the conference be rather weak.

In 2019, UVA won the NCAAT. Duke also made the E8. UNC, FSU, and VPI all made the S16, yet overall, the conference was not considered particularly strong.
In terms of football, it is 100% pointless to say a 13-1 team (and conference champ) beating the 5th best team as evidence of conference superiority.

There‘s a reason high schools divide into tiers. That makes sense to me.
 

stinger78

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2023 ACC vs. SEC
UNC (38) beat USCe (49)
UT (17) beat UVA (91)
FSU (13) beat LSU (12)
Miami (41) beat TAMU (22)
WFU (87) beat Vandy (117)
Ole Miss (16) beat GT (53)
UGA (3) beat GT (53)
Clemson (23) beat USCe (49)
FSU (13) beat UF (48)
UK (36) beat Louisville (24)

Rankings final Sagarin.

The two conferences had teams that played all over the range of quality and the ACC won 6 and the SEC won 4. Why focus on Wake and Vandy except it just helps make your point.

In 2024, the ACC beat 5 top-50 SEC teams while the SEC beat 1 top-50 ACC team.
 

Root4GT

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No it’s not. It’s a discussion of *conference* superiority not team superiority. It is quite possible for a conference to have 2-3 dominant teams but the rest of the conference be rather weak.

In 2019, UVA won the NCAAT. Duke also made the E8. UNC, FSU, and VPI all made the S16, yet overall, the conference was not considered particularly strong.
To your credit you work hard at denigrating SEC Football.👍

Comparing college football and basketball is not a good way to go about it. 12 games versus 34 games.

But most importantly 98% of the population only cares about the top teams in each conference. How Houston, Indiana, Stanford or Vandy played last year moves no needles.

The ACC’s failure as compared to the SEC is squarely at the top of the conferences. Until the ACC has 3 or so teams capable of wining the CFP any given The ACC will be viewed Nationally as a lower level Conference.

The ACC badly needs Clemson to beat Georgia to open their seasons next year.
 

Vespidae

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To your credit you work hard at denigrating SEC Football.👍

Comparing college football and basketball is not a good way to go about it. 12 games versus 34 games.

But most importantly 98% of the population only cares about the top teams in each conference. How Houston, Indiana, Stanford or Vandy played last year moves no needles.

The ACC’s failure as compared to the SEC is squarely at the top of the conferences. Until the ACC has 3 or so teams capable of wining the CFP any given The ACC will be viewed Nationally as a lower level Conference.

The ACC badly needs Clemson to beat Georgia to open their seasons next year.
Exactly correct. But I do enjoy the fervor of those who desperately cling to the idea that the ACC is a superior football conference. It isn’t. Adding FSU and Miami was supposed to change that. It didn’t.

I enjoy reading these but they are meaningless. Take FSU and Clemson out, and the ACC is the Big 12.
 

yeti92

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If only the games between the top teams in each conference matter to conference superiority, then I guess the ACC was the superior conference in 2016 and 2018 since Clemson beat/obliterated the SEC's best those years
 

Vespidae

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If only the games between the top teams in each conference matter to conference superiority, then I guess the ACC was the superior conference in 2016 and 2018 since Clemson beat/obliterated the SEC's best those years
Probably true. And how many times has that happened?
 

stinger78

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Exactly correct. But I do enjoy the fervor of those who desperately cling to the idea that the ACC is a superior football conference. It isn’t. Adding FSU and Miami was supposed to change that. It didn’t.

I enjoy reading these but they are meaningless. Take FSU and Clemson out, and the ACC is the Big 12.
o one is aaying the ACC is superior to the SEC jn football. Not I. The ACC did have the better of the SEC this season, head up, and it wasn’t just Wake vs, Vandy. The SEC was down this past season, and the SEC east has been down for a long time. When the ACC wins in a aet of 10 games across all levels of quality, you know it’s not a great year for your conference, regardless of how good you are at the top.
 
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