Can we stay competitive in the NIL era?

Heisman's Ghost

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How do you determine who is in the Top 30? Is it by the amount you spend or by competitiveness? Take Vandy for example. Vandy is not competitive in the SEC but they are not going to join the ACC and make half the money they currently make in the SEC. There will be a lot of teams that want to be in the top tier that will not have a realistic chance of winning.
The term you are searching for in describing schools like Vanderbilt is "serf". They have and will continue to prostitute themselves for scraps from the elite football factories' table.
 

Heisman's Ghost

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I teach at Auburn and have a LOT of student athletes in my classes. They are often the best students because their attendance and their performance is tracked. On top of that, are 4 hours of practice a day for their sport. If you look at all the nice athletic facilities we have for faculty, students, etc .... the athletic program built that. I dont have a problem with it. The fact is, college sports have evolved and it’s not going back.
If I wanted to watch "professionals" I would click on the NFL. College sports has evolved into a semi professional farm system in so far as the top 30 or so teams are concerned.
 

Vespidae

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If I wanted to watch "professionals" I would click on the NFL. College sports has evolved into a semi professional farm system in so far as the top 30 or so teams are concerned.
I prefer the college game even with its self-inflicted flaws. College athletics has evolved and it's not going back to the time of club sports.
 

CuseJacket

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As the article states this isn't much more than message board fodder, but it's interesting if true. If nothing else, you can avoid the click and walk away knowing there's a message board user named SlicedBread.

According to a message board user who goes by SlicedBread, Aggie boosters spent between $25 and $30 million to sure-up the nation’s top class. He reported that the effort was targeted and coordinated.

Here is how it reportedly plays out in College Station:

  • A recruit is targeted for a specific recruiting class.
  • A “point donor” then heads the recruiting effort.
  • The “point donor” gathers other donors around him.
  • Those donors create an LLC.
  • The LLC sponsors the targeted recruit and pays out deals for NIL if/when he enrolls.
  • That recruit, upon arrival on campus, receives money from the LLC.
  • In turn, the recruit promotes the LLC and its “cause,” whether that be a charity or a business.
 

JacketOff

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As the article states this isn't much more than message board fodder, but it's interesting if true. If nothing else, you can avoid the click and walk away knowing there's a message board user named SlicedBread.

I just think at some point this has to settle down when people start realizing these massive investments they’re making provide very little in return. I mean, if you have the expendable funds to hand out tens and hundreds of thousands, or even millions of dollars at a time you have to be pretty smart right? There’s no way these people continue to shell out massive dollars for not only players, but also for coaches, and facilities. At what point do these people look in the mirror and ask themselves wtf they’re doing with their money. Is it when they get burned by some kid taking their money and running to the next school? Or when whatever 5-star QB they shelled out for gets hurt and never plays a down? Maybe when their big name coach benches their big money player for discipline issues?

I mean, they’re basically playing a weird pro sports league where the fans are directly paying the players. That’s not a system that can work long term IMO, simply because there’s too many conflicts of interest possible. I think maybe 4-5 years of this wild stuff and then it’ll either blow up or level out. I think the next generation of coaching changes will probably lead to some massive changes in the NIL system. Once Bama has to replace Saban, that will create massive implications across the sport.
 

RamblinRed

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I think this will go on for awhile.
The donors who are financing the NIL schemes are not acting as rational businessmen (well there are to a point), but are acting as superfans of a program. If they want to use their personal money and business money (if it is a private company), then that is their decision and the only person they have to answer to is themselves.

It still feels like we are headed to a place where there will be a top league of 20-30 teams ( made up primarily of the better SEC and B10 programs with a handful from other leagues), and then either 1 or 2 other divisions of FBS football schools. The current conference setup could be blown up completely. The only way this does not happen imo is if the content providers feel they still need the current conference structure to work best with the content distribution model.
 

GTrob21

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The only way we will stay competitive is if we have some crazy wealthy alumni start to inject Millions into the FB program. I don't see that happening...ever, so I am of the opinion that we need to jump ship into one of the 2 conferences that will survive, SEC and B1G, or seriously think about what we can accomplish in this business model.
 

ChicagobasedJacket

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The only way we will stay competitive is if we have some crazy wealthy alumni start to inject Millions into the FB program. I don't see that happening...ever, so I am of the opinion that we need to jump ship into one of the 2 conferences that will survive, SEC and B1G, or seriously think about what we can accomplish in this business model.
D Rad screwed us on B1G almost 10 years ago. We voluntarily left the SEC and our attempts to return were blocked.
 

WreckinGT

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I just think at some point this has to settle down when people start realizing these massive investments they’re making provide very little in return. I mean, if you have the expendable funds to hand out tens and hundreds of thousands, or even millions of dollars at a time you have to be pretty smart right? There’s no way these people continue to shell out massive dollars for not only players, but also for coaches, and facilities. At what point do these people look in the mirror and ask themselves wtf they’re doing with their money. Is it when they get burned by some kid taking their money and running to the next school? Or when whatever 5-star QB they shelled out for gets hurt and never plays a down? Maybe when their big name coach benches their big money player for discipline issues?

I mean, they’re basically playing a weird pro sports league where the fans are directly paying the players. That’s not a system that can work long term IMO, simply because there’s too many conflicts of interest possible. I think maybe 4-5 years of this wild stuff and then it’ll either blow up or level out. I think the next generation of coaching changes will probably lead to some massive changes in the NIL system. Once Bama has to replace Saban, that will create massive implications across the sport.
For Texas and Texas A&M 25-30 million dollars spread out amongst a group of billionaires isn't really going to move the needle that much. Texas A&M in this case got the #1 recruiting class in the country for their money. They got 5 of the top 33 players in the country. What it does do is put tremendous pressure on the coaches of these schools. Texas already is notorious for billionaires involving themselves too much in the program. That is going to get even worse.
 

Jerry the Jacket

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Instead of throwing out hands up and moaning, "Woah is me", we should be leading the charge in this area. We have numerous wealthy alumni who could generate the resources necessary to build a best-in-class pipeline of funding to buy the talent to compete with anyone. This is far more important than rebuilding the Edge Center. We need to redirect all available funding to this purpose. We should go further by targeting the best talent at every position in Power 5 football and developing a specific NLI agreement to entice them to transfer to Georgia Tech. Let's quit screwing around and get serious about building the best football program money can buy.

Right now, the Georgia Tech way, is the losing way. Let's get the ship turned around.

Go Jackets!
 

JacketOff

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For Texas and Texas A&M 25-30 million dollars spread out amongst a group of billionaires isn't really going to move the needle that much. Texas A&M in this case got the #1 recruiting class in the country for their money. They got 5 of the top 33 players in the country. What it does do is put tremendous pressure on the coaches of these schools. Texas already is notorious for billionaires involving themselves too much in the program. That is going to get even worse.
$30M divided by 500 people is $60,000 each. Obviously there’s some people giving out a lot more than that, and there’s a ton giving less than that, but that’s beside the point. How many billionaires are there that care enough about college football to completely foot the bill for a program that’s never even really been a national contender? And if they’re paying the athletes directly through NIL deals they can’t even write that off like they can donations to the school that contribute to coaches salaries and facilities.

I just don’t think the people footing the bill can or will continue to do it. If A&M is paying recruits a total of $30M, well then Alabama and Georgia will start paying them $45M before long. And then Texas will start paying $50M, and Ohio State will pay $60M, and the money involved will continue to increase. That’s why I don’t think it’s sustainable. Sooner or later the moguls will realize spending that much money on sports is just really dumb. It’s why pro sports leagues don’t rely on their fans to directly pay for the players, even if they do so indirectly. Direct payments can and will only lead to trouble. Especially when a coach they paid top dollar for doesn’t pan out, or a recruit they gave a couple million dollars to leaves to go to another school. I’d imagine the Ohio State guys who gave Ewers 7 figures feel pretty dumb now that he’s at Texas. Wait until that happens with a few more players at a few more schools. Once these morons start getting burned they’ll settle down.
 

Richard7125

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I just think at some point this has to settle down when people start realizing these massive investments they’re making provide very little in return. I mean, if you have the expendable funds to hand out tens and hundreds of thousands, or even millions of dollars at a time you have to be pretty smart right? There’s no way these people continue to shell out massive dollars for not only players, but also for coaches, and facilities. At what point do these people look in the mirror and ask themselves wtf they’re doing with their money. Is it when they get burned by some kid taking their money and running to the next school? Or when whatever 5-star QB they shelled out for gets hurt and never plays a down? Maybe when their big name coach benches their big money player for discipline issues?

I mean, they’re basically playing a weird pro sports league where the fans are directly paying the players. That’s not a system that can work long term IMO, simply because there’s too many conflicts of interest possible. I think maybe 4-5 years of this wild stuff and then it’ll either blow up or level out. I think the next generation of coaching changes will probably lead to some massive changes in the NIL system. Once Bama has to replace Saban, that will create massive implications across the sport.
I was reading more about the NIL stuff. The NIL money isn’t guaranteed money like pro athlete contracts. It’s a payment. As long as you perform, you will get paid. If you stop performing or if the school brings in a better transfer or a better recruit, the money dries up.
 

JacketOff

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I was reading more about the NIL stuff. The NIL money isn’t guaranteed money like pro athlete contracts. It’s a payment. As long as you perform, you will get paid. If you stop performing or if the school brings in a better transfer or a better recruit, the money dries up.
It’s not guaranteed, but it also can’t be tied to performance. Most of the deals themselves are simply social media promotion or maybe an event appearance. As long as the athlete promotes the brand then it doesn’t even matter if they play or not, they’re contractually obligated to get paid for the full period of the contract. If some random Texas LLC offers a 5 star recruit $1M, and the recruit doesn’t play a down and then transfers to Alabama at the end of the season, they’re still out $1M.
 

Richard7125

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It’s not guaranteed, but it also can’t be tied to performance. Most of the deals themselves are simply social media promotion or maybe an event appearance. As long as the athlete promotes the brand then it doesn’t even matter if they play or not, they’re contractually obligated to get paid for the full period of the contract. If some random Texas LLC offers a 5 star recruit $1M, and the recruit doesn’t play a down and then transfers to Alabama at the end of the season, they’re still out $1M.
Are you sure about that? I don't know, but that is different than what i read

Edit: Here is a link to the article i read. There is a sentence about 3/4 of the way through that makes a comment saying "who's to say the colleges (ie boosters) will keep their promise to pay the kids. That just stuck out. I'm sure there is more structure than that, but this also makes some sense to me. These aren't pro athlete contracts.
https://brobible.com/sports/article/lane-kiffin-thoughts-nil-transfer-portal/
 
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JacketOff

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Are you sure about that? I don't know, but that is different than what i read

Edit: Here is a link to the article i read. There is a sentence about 3/4 of the way through that makes a comment saying "who's to say the colleges (ie boosters) will keep their promise to pay the kids. That just stuck out. I'm sure there is more structure than that, but this also makes some sense to me. These aren't pro athlete contracts.
https://brobible.com/sports/article/lane-kiffin-thoughts-nil-transfer-portal/
Well considering that article is from a source call “Bro Bible” I’m not sure how reliable it is in the first place.

But no, someone who signs a million dollar contract can’t just “get out” of it. The incentives and money cannot be tied to on-field performance, so all the companies’ and LLC’s are paying for are the athlete’s appearances or promotion. If the athlete fulfills their half by continuing to make their required appearances or promotions then there’s nothing the company can do about it and they still have to pay up. Hence why Ewers from Ohio State got his money and is now going to Texas where he wanted to go anyway. I’m sure there are some minor NIL deals where somebody can make a post and get like a t-shirt or some coffee or something that doesn’t really need a contract, but when we’re talking about deals with serious money there’s definitely something drawn up.
 

Richard7125

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Well considering that article is from a source call “Bro Bible” I’m not sure how reliable it is in the first place.

But no, someone who signs a million dollar contract can’t just “get out” of it. The incentives and money cannot be tied to on-field performance, so all the companies’ and LLC’s are paying for are the athlete’s appearances or promotion. If the athlete fulfills their half by continuing to make their required appearances or promotions then there’s nothing the company can do about it and they still have to pay up. Hence why Ewers from Ohio State got his money and is now going to Texas where he wanted to go anyway. I’m sure there are some minor NIL deals where somebody can make a post and get like a t-shirt or some coffee or something that doesn’t really need a contract, but when we’re talking about deals with serious money there’s definitely something drawn up.
Hahaha, I totally agree with the reliability of the source. I agree that there is some type of contract, but i don't think that contract actually happens until the kid signs with the school. At that point, the school (booster) has the short term leverage. I would imagine the contractual language is more favorable to the booster than to the kid.

I guess my point is that I wouldn't be shocked if kids are promised a lot of money to come to a school and many of the kids don't see all of the money they are promised (for whatever reason).
 

Vespidae

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Which begs the question why watch it? The playing field is so tilted in favor of a dozen or so football factories, what is the point of the other 100 plus even bothering?
You can watch or not watch. If it interests you, watch. If not, watch something else. Personally, I enjoy watching college football even if the two teams are not in hunt. The Tennessee-Purdue game was damn exciting, yet neither team had anything special to fight for ... just fun football and a something for the fans.

There is no question college football is headed for a reckoning. Unlike the NFL, college ball is heavily invested with one network and is becoming increasingly regionalized. All the signs are there that it's going to break. There has already been talk of the Top 30 leaving and forming a new CFA and that's probably the model ...
 
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