We've had a lot of debate on this topic. A common argument is that Collins needed to recruit a new offensive line and that he couldn't really use the players that Johnson had recruited. I'm not saying that's true, but let's pull up the time machine and take a look back.
If I were a coach and felt that I had to make a complete transition on an offensive line, and it was a multi-year process, I'd have a couple of components: 1. recruiting new offensive linemen to groom for my line in a couple of years and 2. moving some of the Johnson players to guard and center and 3. pulling in some transfers to fill gaps in the meantime--especially at tackle.
2019: Collins is hired and turns away two offensive linemen that Johnson had offered. For the recruitniks, that class had 1 4 star (Jamious Griffin) and Yates (depending on the service), and most of the rest were 3 stars. We had two DTs and no OL from high school. We pulled in defensive line recruits and no offensive line recruits (unless you count 1 tight end--Dylan Leonard).
Brent Key didn't start until Jan 10, 2020. I don't think he was involved in the recruiting process that year--at least, he shouldn't have been. One of the key (no pun intended) experts in designing our new OL wasn't active in finding players for this recruiting cycle.
We had one offensive line transfer (Jared Southers) and one TE transfer.
If you felt that OL was a critical need, then 2019 was a missed opportunity. If you were an NFL GM, you'd have drafted an offensive tackle and maybe gotten one in free agency.
The recruiting and transfer emphasis was on defense and at skill positions.
If you're a coach, and you think that it's going to take three years to grow an offensive line, then the read from 2019 is that you're starting in 2020 and your first "homegrown" offensive line is 2022 or 2023, depending on how you count.
That's a LONG wait if you're a fan. That's also the season after next.
I have to chalk this up as a planning error. If you actually believe that this is a huge transition and it's mainly on the offensive line, then have a consultant help you until Key comes on board and find the linemen you need.
There's an old saying that if you want to know someone's priorities, don't listen to what they say--watch what they do. Our priorities were defense and wide receiver. I also have to think this was Patenaude's influence too--he could have pushed for offensive linemen.
2020: OK, this year we recruited 6 linemen. After a year, someone decided we needed new blood on the offensive line. Rankins, Williams, Wing Green are at tackle, and Vaipulu is recruited as a center. Our total recruits are Jordan Williams, Cade Kootsouradis, Wing Green, Michael Rankins, Ryan Spiers, and Paula Vaipulu. Ryan Johnson transfers as a guard and Devin Cochran as a tackle.
Williams, Vaipulu, Johnson, and Cochran are "starters" as of 2021. Williams and Vaipulu are homegrown and "young"
It looks like the coaching staff is adopting an offensive line rebuild, but they do it in year #2.
Cochran doesn't play during the covid season, so you don't really get as much of a quick fix for that year.
IFF you believe it takes 3 years to rebuild a line, then we're one year behind from the 2019 class, and possibly two years behind from the lost 2020 offseason practices being cancelled.
2021: You are here. Kirby and Pendley transfer. Weston Franklin and Jakiah Leftwich are our two OL commits. Our ATL offensive linemen at the end of the year are: Jordan Williams (Fr), Mikey Minihan (RS JR from CPJ), Vaipulu (FR), Ryan Johnson (RS SR), Weston Franklin (FR), Kenneth Kirby (RS SR), Wing Green (FR), Devin Cochran (RS SR), and William Lay (RS JR, Walkon).
We didn't recruit that heavily for this year, but we're up against roster limits.
2022: Next Season. Pierce Quick transfers from Alabama and Paul Tchio transfers from Clemson. Bobby Mooney, Tyler Gibson, and Brandon Best are recruits.
So, for next year, we have to guess a lot to see what's going to happen. Here comes a lot of guesswork.
Here is the OL listed on our Ramblin Wreck roster for next year:
Jordan Williams
Mikey Minihan
Will Scissum
Paula Vaipulu
Michael Maye
Cade Kootsouradis
Will Milam
Nick Pendley
Anthony Minella
Joe Fusile
Matthew Morgan
Weston Franklin
Jakiah Leftwich
Wing Green
William Lay
Brandon Best
Tyler Gibson
Plus Mooney, Tchio, and Quick who aren't listed yet.
At TE we have Dylan Leonard, Dylan Deveney, Chris Miller, Billy Ward, Ben Wilhelm, Ben Postma, and Jack Coco. Jack Coco is also a long snapper, as are Henry Freer and Cade Long.
I would expect us to lose players to the transfer portal or injury scholarships, based on the 85-player cap
I guess that Tchio and Quick are projected starters. Some of our 2020 large OL class will be in their third season. Home grown players should be emerging this year and next on the "three-year plan". The transition should be over this year if the lost COVID offseason weren't a factor.
In the end, we have two questions
- How long should a transition take? If you planned ahead and connected successfully with transfers, 2020 would have had a pretty good line, and this past season would have had an above average one.
- Things didn't pan out that well, we didn't plan ahead, we had COVID, and we're at least two years behind where we should be
- To have a good line last year, we'd have had to "hit" really well on our transfers and/or our recruits and have done more in 2019. We didn't do much in 2019, so we weren't going to have that strong line last year
- Without making a move in 2019, we could have had a good line this season. The question is "how big a deal was the lost off-season?". Everyone else had to deal with that lost season on offense and on their defensive lines. We had a full spring practice and summer practices and transfers.
- Our transfers did not hit big enough for us this season to have a quick fix.
- There are options like 2-back sets, Fullbacks, H-Backs, and Tight Ends that can be used to solidify your blocking. We haven't had much success with our TE blocking and were late to adopt 2-back sets. This is something we should have done back in 2019.
- I'd expect our offensive line to have been decent this year.
- Other question: Will it pan out for next year?
- Some things had to go wrong for us to be behind schedule--not going big in 2019 on the OL, a lost COVID year, and some of the transfers panning out OK but not as good as we'd like.
- It has potential. The linemen are old enough and the 2020 class will be "on their third season". There has been enough time for development.
- It has to.
It's pure guesswork on my part and it's dangerous to assume what's in a coach's mind but looking at the timeline I have to think that Collins thought that he'd have more time and more patience from the fans. He probably also thought he'd hit more on his transfers and recruits. Player development hasn't been what I'd hoped.
Purely looking ahead, combined with the trends over the past three seasons, I'd forecast our offensive line as being good in the 2023 season, and under our next coach.
Collins and Long and Key are going to have to do everything humanly possible to move that timeline up a year.