Brutal schedule / expectations

[Gtswifty81]

I knew we were young but this espn story and ranking really nails it. Tech is #2 in returning production from 2019.

https://www.espn.com/college-footba...football-teams-most-returning-production-2020

I love the range of guesses in this thread and part of it is due to that article above. We had an incredibly young team last year, and all of our experienced offensive players were in the first year of a difficult transition, yet we are still a 3-9 team going into an incredibly difficult schedule this year.

I think our #2 ranking particularly our offensive rank is a little deceiving since our QB position is wide open with true freshman in the mix. Conversely, I’m not sure how senior transfers on the OL are worked into that equation but our worst position on offense should be much improved. However our defense (94% ranking) is impressive and from all reports, Clayton may be our most impactful player and we haven’t seen him on the field yet. I’m still hoping for Xavier Kelly too.

Almost equally as important are the senior losses from our competition.

#6 - Virginia Tech
#18 - North Carolina
#38 - UCF
#48- Pitt
#54 - Virginia
#59- Georgia
#65 - Duke
#83 - Notre Dame
#95- Clemson
#96- Miami
#105- Syracuse

Nevertheless, early polls have Clemson, UGA, Norte Dame, Virginia Tech, UNC, and UCF ranked although it varies between polls with one team usually not getting ranked.

 

[ugacdawg]

Almost equally as important are the senior losses from our competition.

At least on offense, a lot of the top 10 appear to be G5 schools, which isn’t surprising I guess. One would expect them to be playing a lot of seniors.

The issue for UGA is not the senior losses, its the junior losses. After 2018 and 2019 UGA lost significant on-field production to early draft entrees. The downside of recruiting high 4* and 5* talent appears to be the 3 year shelf life, and its particularly damaging on the offensive and defensive lines as those positions take longer to groom to play at the highest levels, regardless of talent. Look at LSU this year, they had a mass exodus of juniors. The only program that seems to be able to get draftable juniors to stay regularly is Clemson.

 

[WreckinGT]

Yes. Have you seen the 2020 haul?

Yes. Are they eligible to play in 2020?

 

[Jacket in Dairyland]

At least on offense, a lot of the top 10 appear to be G5 schools, which isn’t surprising I guess. One would expect them to be playing a lot of seniors.

The issue for UGA is not the senior losses, its the junior losses. After 2018 and 2019 UGA lost significant on-field production to early draft entrees. The downside of recruiting high 4* and 5* talent appears to be the 3 year shelf life, and its particularly damaging on the offensive and defensive lines as those positions take longer to groom to play at the highest levels, regardless of talent. Look at LSU this year, they had a mass exodus of juniors. The only program that seems to be able to get draftable juniors to stay regularly is Clemson.

And for UGA, the coaching turnover. When we have had that, the first year can be a struggle. It is not COMPLETELY about talent sometimes.

 

[WreckinGT]

Haters gonna hate. His argument is the perfect hypothetical for “if we don’t win it’s the coaches fault” and that’s how he wants to frame it. But the argument is not even disguised well for anyone that’s not naive. Ignore these guys, the future is bright.

How does wanting to win translate to being a hater? You know how sports work, right? Frankly, continuing to crap on our players and coaching staff by constantly trying to tell everyone that they can’t win sounds a lot more like hating to me. We need to shed the defeatist attitude and support the guys.

 

[Gtswifty81]

At least on offense, a lot of the top 10 appear to be G5 schools, which isn’t surprising I guess. One would expect them to be playing a lot of seniors.

The issue for UGA is not the senior losses, its the junior losses. After 2018 and 2019 UGA lost significant on-field production to early draft entrees. The downside of recruiting high 4* and 5* talent appears to be the 3 year shelf life, and its particularly damaging on the offensive and defensive lines as those positions take longer to groom to play at the highest levels, regardless of talent. Look at LSU this year, they had a mass exodus of juniors. The only program that seems to be able to get draftable juniors to stay regularly is Clemson.

Yeah upperclassmen would have been a better description. Junior top talent exodus to the NFL is obviously hard to replace each year but it seems 4 or 5 teams sign the bulk of the 5* talent. That article doesn’t apply as much to the top 5 ranked teams as returning production doesn’t correlate to their success. The junior exits seem to affect whether or not they make the playoffs but they seem to always be ranked in the top 10.

 

[GTFLETCH]

Last time we signed a highly touted RB (D.Mills) coming off of 3 win sseason we won 9 games and did not have three SEC Transfer OL.... I suspect we win 6 and go bowling with a bowl win we get to 7 Wins....

 

[slugboy]

I think our #2 ranking particularly our offensive rank is a little deceiving since our QB position is wide open with true freshman in the mix. Conversely, I’m not sure how senior transfers on the OL are worked into that equation but our worst position on offense should be much improved. However our defense (94% ranking) is impressive and from all reports, Clayton may be our most impactful player and we haven’t seen him on the field yet. I’m still hoping for Xavier Kelly too.
.

Returning production means just that. Transfers don’t count, since they didn’t start for us last year. There’s no expectation that the returning starters start next year in this metric; generally, if the returning starter gets beaten out , it’s a Kelly Bryant vs Trevor Lawrence situation where you improve. It establishes how much you lost and have to replace, not what you added.
Also, you combine it with other metrics. Yes, we return a lot of starters, but off of a 3 win team. If it were off an SP+ top 25 team, it would mean we’re loaded.


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[tmhunter52]

15-0

 

[JacketOff]

Returning production means just that. Transfers don’t count, since they didn’t start for us last year. There’s no expectation that the returning starters start next year in this metric; generally, if the returning starter gets beaten out , it’s a Kelly Bryant vs Trevor Lawrence situation where you improve. It establishes how much you lost and have to replace, not what you added.
Also, you combine it with other metrics. Yes, we return a lot of starters, but off of a 3 win team. If it were off an SP+ top 25 team, it would mean we’re loaded.


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Transfers are actually included in this metric. As well as players who didn’t play in 2019, or had limited time in 2019 due to injuries or other underlying circumstances.

Accounting for transfers and transfer portal entries as much as possible, here are the current returning production figures heading into the 2020 offseason... Handling transfers is a pretty clumsy process, by the way. For players on new teams, I simply include their most recent season's production in both their new team's numerator and denominator. It works as well as anything else I've tried. And for returning players who logged major stats in 2018 but missed most or all of 2019 for whatever reason, I use their 2018 stats where applicable.

This isn’t so much of a metric for returning starters, it’s more so to measure how much experience a team has.

 

[GTFLETCH]

I love the range of guesses in this thread and part of it is due to that article above. We had an incredibly young team last year, and all of our experienced offensive players were in the first year of a difficult transition, yet we are still a 3-9 team going into an incredibly difficult schedule this year.

I think our #2 ranking particularly our offensive rank is a little deceiving since our QB position is wide open with true freshman in the mix. Conversely, I’m not sure how senior transfers on the OL are worked into that equation but our worst position on offense should be much improved. However our defense (94% ranking) is impressive and from all reports, Clayton may be our most impactful player and we haven’t seen him on the field yet. I’m still hoping for Xavier Kelly too.

Almost equally as important are the senior losses from our competition.

#6 - Virginia Tech
#18 - North Carolina
#38 - UCF
#48- Pitt
#54 - Virginia
#59- Georgia
#65 - Duke
#83 - Notre Dame
#95- Clemson
#96- Miami
#105- Syracuse

Nevertheless, early polls have Clemson, UGA, Norte Dame, Virginia Tech, UNC, and UCF ranked although it varies between polls with one team usually not getting ranked.

The last time we finished 3-9 and signed our #1 rB (D.Mills) the following year we won 9 games... I am still not sold on our OC... But with three SEC lineman, and awith 1 year experiance with the returning players I do Not see how we do not win 6 games...


Sep. 3 Loss

Sep. 12 Win
Sep. 19 Win
Sep. 26 Loss
Oct. 3 Loss
Oct. 17 Win
Oct. 24 Win
Oct. 31 Win
Nov. 7 Win
Nov. 14 Loss
Nov. 21 Loss
Saturday
Nov. 28 Loss

6-6 & the Bowl streak starts again!

 

[GTJake]

I would say Fletch is pretty close with an optimistic change that we stun ND at Mercedes-Benz = 7-5
And maybe VT as a win and either Duke/UVA as a loss ...