Brutal schedule / expectations

[Vespidae]

I believe both averaged 8 wins a year.

0.58 x 12 = 6.96. Looks like 7 to me.

 

[Boaty1]

0.58 x 12 = 6.96. Looks like 7 to me.

Just add up there wins and divide by the seasons.

 

[awbuzz]

0.58 x 12 = 6.96. Looks like 7 to me.

But sometimes we play 13 games... You know back in the day when we went to Bowl games...

 

[Boaty1]

But sometimes we play 13 games... You know back in the day when we went to Bowl games...

Exactly. Johnson even had a few 14 games seasons in there.

 

[Vespidae]

Exactly. Johnson even had a few 14 games seasons in there.

During the period 2008-2018, GT played 143 games and won 82 of those. This includes bowl games. That’s a win rate of 0.573.

If we maintain that win rate into the future and assume a 12 game season, that’s 7 wins a season.

 

[Boaty1]

During the period 2008-2018, GT played 143 games and won 82 of those. This includes bowl games. That’s a win rate of 0.573.

If we maintain that win rate into the future and assume a 12 game season, that’s 7 wins a season.

What are you talking about? Where is this fixed 12 games season coming from? Why are you not including bowl games and ACC Championship games?

This is yet another of your ploys to disparage the program. Its consistent and frankly why you catch it from people on this board.

 

[majorQ9]

Tech gets mentioned in tier 3b for having a tough schedule
https://www.bannersociety.com/2020/1/27/21078812/college-football-scheduling-advice

 

[Vespidae]

What are you talking about? Where is this fixed 12 games season coming from? Why are you not including bowl games and ACC Championship games?

This is yet another of your ploys to disparage the program. Its consistent and frankly why you catch it from people on this board.

Ploy? Next year, we play a 12-game schedule. That’s a statement of fact.

Read my original post. All I asked was if readers thought we would exceed that. I think that’s a fair question but understand if you think it’s some nefarious ploy to secretly denigrate the program.

 

[LibertyTurns]

What are you talking about? Where is this fixed 12 games season coming from? Why are you not including bowl games and ACC Championship games?

This is yet another of your ploys to disparage the program. Its consistent and frankly why you catch it from people on this board.

No offense but .573 x 12 = 6.876

With a 13th game (I’m assuming 7 wins means no ACC Championship game although that’s
possible and has happened), that’s 7-8 wins a year as .573 x 13 = 7.449

7.5 wins per year is better. Not by much but it is better.

I believe 8 wins per year is much better. Anything north of that and I’ll be thrilled as we’ve not posted that type of performance since Dodd prowled the sidelines.

I’ll make this statement again- Any GT football coach that averages more than 8.5 wins per year over 5+ years on the Flats I’ll personally pay for his bronze statue. If we win 14 games this year I’ll forego the number of seasons requirement. No fundraising required I’ll just fork over the check to whoever at GTAA wants to take it.

CGC- please make me pay up soon.

 

[Coloradojacket]

I didn't make the edit window so I'll update here.

Johnson averaged 7.54 wins per season
Gailey 7.33
O'leary 7.57

We have been a consistently solid program over the last 25 years with varying styles of offenses. The 3O brought similar success overall to the other systems, but left our program in a much worse shape than the others. At this point this statement seems more fact than opinion.

Every time I read something like this I just shake my head. CPJ brought in success at Tech not seen since Dodd. According to this argument you could equate this to Ross followed by Lewis.

 

[Boaty1]

No offense but .573 x 12 = 6.876

With a 13th game (I’m assuming 7 wins means no ACC Championship game although that’s
possible and has happened), that’s 7-8 wins a year as .573 x 13 = 7.449

7.5 wins per year is better. Not by much but it is better.

I believe 8 wins per year is much better. Anything north of that and I’ll be thrilled as we’ve not posted that type of performance since Dodd prowled the sidelines.

I’ll make this statement again- Any GT football coach that averages more than 8.5 wins per year over 5+ years on the Flats I’ll personally pay for his bronze statue. If we win 14 games this year I’ll forego the number of seasons requirement. No fundraising required I’ll just fork over the check to whoever at GTAA wants to take it.

CGC- please make me pay up soon.

I am aware you guys are smarter than me. But if you just take the # of wins and divide by the amount of seasons an individual coached you will get there wins per season. Both Johnson and O'leary were just north of of 7.5 so I rounded up and said 8. Keep in mind O'leary did this with just an 11 game regular season and no conference championship game. Gailey also had a few 11 game regular seasons but averaged just 7.33 wins per season.

I think in this modern era, an average of 8 wins a year should be our expectation once we get the program rebuilt. We are certainly not a 6 win program as Johnson proclaimed before his last season.

 

[bobongo]

Guys, guys...suffice it to say there are too many variables to sort this argument out and let's call it roughly even - which it is.

 

[LibertyTurns]

@Boaty1 Winning 65% of the games played gets CGC more than half way to Dodd from where we’ve been mired. Dodd has a 71% record and was arguably one of the greatest ever to have coached. I understand the philosophy that maybe people like me constrain achievement because we put unnecessarily low expectations on the program based on our less than glorious recent history, but if you beat everyone besides one of the greatest of all times you’re pretty damn good. If he posts a better record than Dodd he will be legendary. That’s rarefied air territory. Not impossible, but he’d go down in history along with the great coaches of all time.

 

[Jim Prather]

Just to level set, since we only won 3 games this year, in order for CGC to get to a 65% winning pct, he is going to have to AVERAGE 10 wins for the next 5 years.
He set himself a pretty high bar in order to be considered in the same conversation with our better coaches with the way this season went...

 

[stech81]

Guys get over this history carp what happen in the past does not matter. Hell fire we were good when Heisman was the coach but that don't matter now. We sucked when B** L**** was here and guess what it don't matter now. Football is a different game than when any of the past coaches were here. I loved CPJ and I support this coaching staff and CGC 100 percent. And if I remember right every coach has done some dumb things and at one point some fans were calling for their head.

 

[Coloradojacket]

Guys get over this history carp what happen in the past does not matter. Hell fire we were good when Heisman was the coach but that don't matter now. We sucked when B** L**** was here and guess what it don't matter now. Football is a different game than when any of the past coaches were here. I loved CPJ and I support this coaching staff and CGC 100 percent. And if I remember right every coach has done some dumb things and at one point some fans were calling for their head.

Exactly.....and the funny thing is Dodd in the 60's was a wait for it......7 win team. The game is not the same.

 

[iceeater1969]

During the period 2008-2018, GT played 143 games and won 82 of those. This includes bowl games. That’s a win rate of 0.573.

If we maintain that win rate into the future and assume a 12 game season, that’s 7 wins a season.

Stats verses memory
Cpj was 100% against cross conference = 1 game a year added to the 2 crummy team slaughters. Then take away the 2 usual beat down by Clemson /uga. That's about 3W and 2L This leaves 7 games which we usually won 3 or 4 which takes us to 6 or 7 wins. Your stats match my memory.

I think we agree 7 wins will get u fired or retired.

 

[JacketOff]

Thought I’d bump this thread with NSD over and a full look at the class. Gibbs and Cochran are huge additions. Also added some special teams competition. This team will have talent next, and a lot of it. But, most of the talent will still be very young. There will still be a ton a FR and SO playing significant snaps, but there will much more upperclassmen help than last year. Whoever plays QB will have less than 10 games of college experience, or be a true freshman. There will still be mistakes made, but I would expect at least average production from the QB position.
OL play should improve significantly, and will probably be the easiest thing to notice when comparing film from last year to next year.
The backfield will be loaded, and with question marks at TE, I’d love to see 2-0 sets with the 3 headed monster.
WR will have plenty of talent as well. I’d expect Ezzard, Brown, and Camp to do most of the heavy lifting in the passing game, but Carter, Dolphus, and Sanders provide solid depth. The question will be how well the QB can get balls out to the guys out wide.
Overall I think the offense will be vastly improved from last year; mostly because the OL will at least be competent. Hopefully only 6-7 guys are used all year. Cutting down 3 & outs will help everyone out, and scoring will definitely go up.

Defensively, the DL still won’t be great. Adding Clayton will be huge for the pass rush, but without a show stopper up the middle DL pressure will still probably be at a premium.
LB will be interesting. Curry is definitely the leader on that side of the ball, but he’s not one of the most talented ‘backers in the league. Gonna need a lot of help from the secondary again this year, but the talent is there that it shouldn’t be a huge issue. Keeping the offense on the field longer will also pay dividends on the defensive side of the ball.

Special teams... woof. Have to find a kicker this year. 3-8 field goals is unacceptable. Need to get to a point where we’re kicking at least 70% from inside 45. Need to at least have a prayer of making some that are longer than 45. Definitely need some touchbacks on kickoffs, and both punt coverage and returns need a lot of work. I expect Harvin will continue to be a top tier punter (or at least above average), although I feel he was a little inconsistent at times last year. That may have been from the shear number of punts he had though.

I think 6 wins is reachable next year. It’s an incredibly tough schedule, so anything more than 6 is gravy, and means we probably beat somebody we weren’t supposed to. 4 to 5 is where I’m keeping my expectations though. As long as all but 3 (you guys know the 3) games are competitive through the 4th I’ll be satisfied. Less than 4 wins and I’d feel we underachieved. Remember, this isn’t about being a Collins “apologist” or accepting mediocrity. It’s about understanding that it takes time to build a program. Yes, there will be a lot of very talented transfers on the field, as well as a lot of talented players that signed to Tech originally. That doesn’t automatically correlate to wins though. A lot of youth will take up a lot of minutes. Year 3 is still going to be my measuring stick. A lot of successful coaching turnarounds become obvious in year 3, after going through growing pains in years 1 & 2. This year will mostly be about proving Tech can be successful, and setting up for a Top 20 2021 recruiting class

 

[bobongo]

Captain obvious here, but I want to echo that the biggest difference next year is going to be the OL. Adding Cochran and Johnson, with a healthy Kenny Cooper and most everyone coming back a year older/stronger is going to propel this OL from lower G-5 level to at least middle of the pack P-5. There's going to be dramatic improvement on offense. And not to disparage other talent we have at running back, but I think a tandem of Gibbs and Mason in the backfield running behind this OL is going to be hard to stop for at least 3/4 of our schedule.

If we can just get half the improvement on defense that I expect to see on offense, this team is going to get back to respectability fast.

 

[RickStromFan]

What are you talking about? Where is this fixed 12 games season coming from?
Why are you not including bowl games and ACC Championship games?

because PJ was 0.333 in both ACC-CG and bowl games.