Bracketology - Let's Do This

orientalnc

Helluva Engineer
Retired Staff
Messages
10,037
Location
Oriental, NC
Lunardi's Bubble:

It's amazing to me how bad the recent resume's are for most of the teams on the list. And think about how much worse the resume's are of the teams that have bounced off the bubble (like Indiana). I think Syracuse has a good shot to play themselves in.

Last Four Byes:
Louisville: Played 4 games since the end of January (NET 50)
Rutgers: Losing record in conference. Lost 3 of last 4. (NET 37)
GT: Won 5 in a row (NET 38)
VCU: Lost 2 of the last 3, including losing to George Mason and Davidson. (NET 35)

Last 4 in:
Drake: Just lost to Bradford. They're not Duke. (NET 42)
Mich St: 8-11 in conference. Lost 2 of the last 3. (NET 74)
Xavier: 6-6 in conference. Lost 4 of last 6. (NET 53)
Boise State: Lost 3 in a row (NET 45)

First 4 out:
Seton Hall: Lost 3 in a row. (NET 57)
Utah St: Mostly winning in the Mtn west conf. Hard to judge. (NET 48)
St Louis: 2-2 in last 4. Lost to Dayton and VCU. (NET 40)
Duke: 1-2 in last 3 against other teams on this list. (NET 58)

Next 4 out:
Syracuse: 5-2 in last 7 (NET 51)
SMU: Played 1 game in the past month (NET 54)
Memphis: Mostly winning in the American Conf. Hard for me to judge. (NET 55)
Ole Miss: 9-8 in conference. 2-2 in last 4. (NET 56)

I think we're probably more safely in the tourney than most folks realize with how weak the bubble action has been.

/
Almost every team on this list is flawed in some way, or they wouldn't be here. I agree that we are likely pretty comfortable, but losing to Wake would upset that comfort and make winning a couple of games in the ACCT almost mandatory.

Michigan State is a bad team and Duke has more talent than anyone on this list. Why either is at this point is remarkable in the extreme.
 

JacketRacket

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
435
Update 3/5:

KenPom: 30 (prev. 30)
NET: 38 (prev. 38)
Sagarin: 38 (prev. 39)
BracketMatrix: We're in 103 out of 107 brackets with an avg. seed of 10.82 (prev. 11.03)

Just wanted to get a checkpoint before the final game of the regular season. We've been pretty steady as far as rankings go. Our avg. seed is inching up to where we could play ourselves into a 8 or 9 seed depending on this game and the ACCT (not saying we want that, but it wouldn't surprise me)
 

Deleted member 2897

Guest
Lunardi's Bubble:

It's amazing to me how bad the recent resume's are for most of the teams on the list. And think about how much worse the resume's are of the teams that have bounced off the bubble (like Indiana). I think Syracuse has a good shot to play themselves in.

Last Four Byes:
Louisville: Played 4 games since the end of January (NET 50)
Rutgers: Losing record in conference. Lost 3 of last 4. (NET 37)
GT: Won 5 in a row (NET 38)
VCU: Lost 2 of the last 3, including losing to George Mason and Davidson. (NET 35)

Last 4 in:
Drake: Just lost to Bradford. They're not Duke. (NET 42)
Mich St: 8-11 in conference. Lost 2 of the last 3. (NET 74)
Xavier: 6-6 in conference. Lost 4 of last 6. (NET 53)
Boise State: Lost 3 in a row (NET 45)

First 4 out:
Seton Hall: Lost 3 in a row. (NET 57)
Utah St: Mostly winning in the Mtn west conf. Hard to judge. (NET 48)
St Louis: 2-2 in last 4. Lost to Dayton and VCU. (NET 40)
Duke: 1-2 in last 3 against other teams on this list. (NET 58)

Next 4 out:
Syracuse: 5-2 in last 7 (NET 51)
SMU: Played 1 game in the past month (NET 54)
Memphis: Mostly winning in the American Conf. Hard for me to judge. (NET 55)
Ole Miss: 9-8 in conference. 2-2 in last 4. (NET 56)

I think we're probably more safely in the tourney than most folks realize with how weak the bubble action has been.

/

Yep. This **** is just hilarious. I still think once people have to sit down and sift through the data, it will change a bit. Teams like Michigan State shouldn't even be in the fourth next 4 out.

Virginia Tech has 9 conference wins. 9 teams in the ACC have 9 or more wins. If Louisville beats Virginia, 10 teams will have at least 9 wins. Yet Virginia Tech is a 6 seed. Yes, the Virginia Tech who took their ball, left the court, and decided to sit out the remainder of the season. I get it, its not totally their fault, but they're playing 5 fewer games than most everyone else. They've played 4 games against the top 8 teams in the conference. That's it, and they lost 3 of them. LOL.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

RyanS12

Helluva Engineer
Messages
5,084
Location
Flint Michigan
If we seed 11, I like our chances at knocking out the 6’s on the above bracket.
6/11 spot is the one I hope we end up in. Doesn’t mater which one we end up 6 or 11, it just seems like the better position to make a Sweet 16 run. This year most of the teams in those spots are pretty much even. Hell, even most of the projected 3 seeds aren’t all that intimidating.
 

Northeast Stinger

Helluva Engineer
Messages
11,129
Lunardi's Bubble:

It's amazing to me how bad the recent resume's are for most of the teams on the list. And think about how much worse the resume's are of the teams that have bounced off the bubble (like Indiana). I think Syracuse has a good shot to play themselves in.

Last Four Byes:
Louisville: Played 4 games since the end of January (NET 50)
Rutgers: Losing record in conference. Lost 3 of last 4. (NET 37)
GT: Won 5 in a row (NET 38)
VCU: Lost 2 of the last 3, including losing to George Mason and Davidson. (NET 35)

Last 4 in:
Drake: Just lost to Bradford. They're not Duke. (NET 42)
Mich St: 8-11 in conference. Lost 2 of the last 3. (NET 74)
Xavier: 6-6 in conference. Lost 4 of last 6. (NET 53)
Boise State: Lost 3 in a row (NET 45)

First 4 out:
Seton Hall: Lost 3 in a row. (NET 57)
Utah St: Mostly winning in the Mtn west conf. Hard to judge. (NET 48)
St Louis: 2-2 in last 4. Lost to Dayton and VCU. (NET 40)
Duke: 1-2 in last 3 against other teams on this list. (NET 58)

Next 4 out:
Syracuse: 5-2 in last 7 (NET 51)
SMU: Played 1 game in the past month (NET 54)
Memphis: Mostly winning in the American Conf. Hard for me to judge. (NET 55)
Ole Miss: 9-8 in conference. 2-2 in last 4. (NET 56)

I think we're probably more safely in the tourney than most folks realize with how weak the bubble action has been.

/
Are you factoring in Tech paranoia?
 

CuseJacket

Administrator
Staff member
Messages
19,625
6/11 spot is the one I hope we end up in. Doesn’t mater which one we end up 6 or 11, it just seems like the better position to make a Sweet 16 run. This year most of the teams in those spots are pretty much even. Hell, even most of the projected 3 seeds aren’t all that intimidating.
The secret that some don't realize is that for many many years now, 6 thru 11 is almost a crapshoot. At the extremes of that range we're talking about a team ranked in the low 40's beating a team at the bottom of the top 25. Happens every week in the regular season, yet "MARCH MADNESS!!!!!!". 5 vs 12 is often not a whole lot different.

Vegas knows what it's doing when most of those 6-11 games are 6-7 point spreads or less. Even some 12's have been favored over the 5 in recent past, so narrow the margin for 6-11 and it basically comes down to match-ups and who gets hot.
 

BCJacket

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
761
Mildly interesting: Georgia State won their division. They have the highest NET in the Sun Belt. (Only team in their conference with a Quad 1 win :rolleyes:).

Texas State is the favorite to win the Sun Belt's NCAA bid. But if GSU can win their tournament and go dancing, that loss would surely look less bad to the committee. 4OT to what would be a NCAAT team. Adds context to the Mercer loss too. No rest after a 4OT game against a tournament team.
 

CuseJacket

Administrator
Staff member
Messages
19,625
Mildly interesting: Georgia State won their division. They have the highest NET in the Sun Belt. (Only team in their conference with a Quad 1 win :rolleyes:).

Texas State is the favorite to win the Sun Belt's NCAA bid. But if GSU can win their tournament and go dancing, that loss would surely look less bad to the committee. 4OT to what would be a NCAAT team. Adds context to the Mercer loss too. No rest after a 4OT game against a tournament team.
Not singling you out since this has been brought up a lot. There's context missing with wins and losses for a lot of teams this year. We shot ourselves in the foot the first two games because it was a decision we made. Who knows if the committee will be less forgiving there when compared to the brutal stretch where we were at a competitive disadvantage @ Louisville, for example.

Many teams are clamoring for context. Some examples that haven't really hit us (fingers crossed):
  • Teams coming off of Covid pauses and getting blasted is not something we had to deal with. We did well off our lone Covid pause, in part because there seemed to be no lingering affects and we could practice before playing a meaningful game. That's not been the case for all teams.
  • How about beating others without a full roster? We played Miami who had 6 scholarship players. That's happening everywhere, maybe not to that extreme, due to injuries and Covid/contact tracing. We've been fortunate to not lose guys for a significant period of time.
  • Same goes for teams that lost out on quad 1 opportunities or had a schedule imbalance that was entirely out of their control. Lot of teams in that category.

Feels like we've been lucky on the Covid side of things, so that puts us in a theoretical competitive advantage category for some games. Does that counterbalance our disadvantage during the first two and during our crazy stretch of 1-day off contests? I have no freaking clue but could offer a biased opinion and say minimally the context of the first two should be heavily considered, particularly since it was the beginning of the season and we can argue the decision was made for player safety.

Almost impossible to quantify the magnitude of the variations this season across the country and I guarantee the committee will catch borderline unprecedented grief no matter their decision.
 

CuseJacket

Administrator
Staff member
Messages
19,625
Also, some may remember, there was a preseason push for expanding the NCAAT this year due to this exact issue. Said simply, the premise was that there is a good chance qualified teams will be left out due to factors outside of their control that contributed to their final resume.

Various iterations of proposals, but here's our thread starting with the most extreme proposal
 

orientalnc

Helluva Engineer
Retired Staff
Messages
10,037
Location
Oriental, NC
...we can argue the decision was made for player safety.
Is there a a process in the selection of tournament teams where input from each team is given a hearing? I would think injuries and COVID absences would be just as important to some teams as our safety concerns back in November.

The ACC team that was affected most by COVID is Virginia Tech. But their impact, as it turns out, has helped them rather hurt.
 

CuseJacket

Administrator
Staff member
Messages
19,625
Is there a a process in the selection of tournament teams where input from each team is given a hearing? I would think injuries and COVID absences would be just as important to some teams as our safety concerns back in November.

The ACC team that was affected most by COVID is Virginia Tech. But their impact, as it turns out, has helped them rather hurt.
Doubt it.

Also the definition of "team most affected" is debatable. If it's defined as missed games? Sure, VT (though I haven't counted). Lingering affects or select players being held out/can't practice, meaning a team has to play handcuffed? Not VT at all.

TBD on whether it helped VT. I think we were the better team than them heading into our game regardless, but it could be argued that was not the same VT team from earlier in the season. Also, if there is acknowledgement publicly that they are artificially rated too high, perhaps the committee believes that too, then it didn't in turn help them.
 

forensicbuzz

21st Century Throwback Dad
Messages
9,029
Location
North Shore, Chicago
Is there a a process in the selection of tournament teams where input from each team is given a hearing? I would think injuries and COVID absences would be just as important to some teams as our safety concerns back in November.

The ACC team that was affected most by COVID is Virginia Tech. But their impact, as it turns out, has helped them rather hurt.
Yeah, it's called League Commissioners. Got a text from our Commish tonight saying he was impressed with our women (and men) and both will be in the NCAA. He will fight for us and he has deep history with the selection committee. He was on it two years ago (and last year, I think).
 

Deleted member 2897

Guest
Not singling you out since this has been brought up a lot. There's context missing with wins and losses for a lot of teams this year. We shot ourselves in the foot the first two games because it was a decision we made. Who knows if the committee will be less forgiving there when compared to the brutal stretch where we were at a competitive disadvantage @ Louisville, for example.

Many teams are clamoring for context. Some examples that haven't really hit us (fingers crossed):
  • Teams coming off of Covid pauses and getting blasted is not something we had to deal with. We did well off our lone Covid pause, in part because there seemed to be no lingering affects and we could practice before playing a meaningful game. That's not been the case for all teams.
  • How about beating others without a full roster? We played Miami who had 6 scholarship players. That's happening everywhere, maybe not to that extreme, due to injuries and Covid/contact tracing. We've been fortunate to not lose guys for a significant period of time.
  • Same goes for teams that lost out on quad 1 opportunities or had a schedule imbalance that was entirely out of their control. Lot of teams in that category.

Feels like we've been lucky on the Covid side of things, so that puts us in a theoretical competitive advantage category for some games. Does that counterbalance our disadvantage during the first two and during our crazy stretch of 1-day off contests? I have no freaking clue but could offer a biased opinion and say minimally the context of the first two should be heavily considered, particularly since it was the beginning of the season and we can argue the decision was made for player safety.

Almost impossible to quantify the magnitude of the variations this season across the country and I guarantee the committee will catch borderline unprecedented grief no matter their decision.

Our biggest problem this year that was out of our control was getting the free 10 ranking boost by playing in the Big Ten.
 
Top