Bracketology - Let's Do This

[GTRX7]

It is common in basketball and football to be slightly ranked below a team you've beaten by just the way the schedules and wins and losses work out. I know under the covers how Virginia Tech has skipped most of their most difficult games and have lost to nearly all the ones they kept. But it is what it is. They finished 3rd in the ACC. Nobody in the entire conference had fewer overall losses than Virginia Tech. Only 6 teams out of the top 25 have fewer losses than Virginia Tech. The #2 team in the entire country has 6 losses. So I can certainly see why they're ranked there.

Fewer losses is an odd metric for VT because they played so few games. In the ACC, their 9 wins is 6th most and is tied with 3 other teams that also had 9 ACC wins. In other words, they had more ACC wins than only 6 of the 15 ACC teams. Combine that with having the 15th! rated strength of schedule in the ACC and one has to ask, what did they actually accomplish to earn their seed apart from just cancelling games against the hard teams?

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Here is a fun exercise to look at between two teams. In your head (don't look any of this up ahead of time to see who the teams are), play guess if they are in the tournament or not, and if so what seed.

Team 1) P5 team. Finished 3rd in the conference. 5 games above 0.500 in conference play, 9 games above 0.500 overall. Ranked #25 in the AP poll. 1 game over 0.500 against the Top 25. 1 game below 0.500 against the Top 50.

Team 2) P5 team. Finished 9th in the conference. 2 games below 0.500 in conference play. 3 games above 0.500 overall. Unranked in AP poll. 4 games below 0.500 against the Top 25. 6 games below 0.500 against the Top 50.
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They are both 10 seeds.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Here is another fun exercise to look at between two teams. In your head (don't look any of this up ahead of time to see who the teams are), play guess if they are in the tournament or not, and if so what seed.

Team 1) P5 team. Finished 6th in the conference. Played right at 0.500 in conference play, 5 games above 0.500 overall. Not in Top 25. 9 games below 0.500 against the Top 25. 3 games below 0.500 against the Top 50.

Team 2) P5 team. Finished 4th in the conference. 5 games above 0.500 in conference play. 9 games above 0.500 overall. Not in Top 25. Played right at 0.500 against the Top 25. 2 games above 0.500 against the Top 50.
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They are both 9 seeds.

 

[MidtownJacket]

Not sure if I am more impressed with @bwelbo's sick hidden text game or the picks we are getting for the thought exercise..

 

[lv20gt]

Re: #1, it's hard for me to imagine, even if the committee considered extenuating circumstances, that they would have been sympathetic to a coach's choice (Pastner's) to not be ready, vs. actual players out with Covid and dealing with the repercussions, both immediate and lingering. Way oversimplified, but I see the counterargument to us as fans.

We can probably go back and forth but since it doesn't appear that they did it doesn't really matter. To me, I would have been more sympathetic to us because those two games are very clear outliers, there is a very clear reason that when changed had immediately clear results. In contrast to say Clemson, who when they came back from their covid break got beat badly by the three best teams in the ACC. To me both scenarios are results of covid, just a matter of proactive vs reactive but I think it's much clearer that our scenario led to results that were inconsistent with our year, not just that it happened. I thought they would try to find outliers created because of covid rather than just pauses.

Re: #2, the last 10 games and such has been washed away for a while. The point was to not diminish early season wins, for better and for worse, so that teams were appropriately rewarded for strong out-of-conference scheduling.

I know it's been gone away awhile, but it's hard to not fall back into the old mindeset.

 

[SteamWhistle]

Gonna have to beat good teams who cares. Fact of the matter is we beat the good teams and we get their “easy” games they were gonna get.

 

[GT_EE78]

Clemson is a 1 pt dog to Ruttgers
we are 2.5 underdogs

 

[orientalnc]

The issue is the premise you're stating. Never in the history of the NET has the committee stated it's used as THE gauge for seeding. It's a consideration among many other variables. As I understand it, really the only public confirmation of the use of NET is to use it as a starting point to group teams for discussion. It doesn't mean teams end in the same grouping or anything of the sort.

I am still somewhat confused about why they publish the NET. I agree with your explanation, but I believe by publishing the NET rankings the NCAA adds to the ill feelings many teams and fans have about the fairness of the process.

I can actually see the fans of Loyola's point even better than ours. They saw themselves ranked very high in the NET (and in KenPom) and were expecting a 3 or 4 seed. When the bracket was announced they are facing, in consecutive games if they win the 1st one, the champions of two P6 conferences.

As I stated earlier, I think the seeding is actually pretty good. I wish we were seeded higher, but we plowed our own field and have to reap what we can. We should have been 20-5, not 17-8.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I am still somewhat confused about why they publish the NET. I agree with your explanation, but I believe by publishing the NET rankings the NCAA adds to the ill feelings many teams and fans have about the fairness of the process.

I can actually see the fans of Loyola's point even better than ours. They saw themselves ranked very high in the NET (and in KenPom) and were expecting a 3 or 4 seed. When the bracket was announced they are facing, in consecutive games if they win the 1st one, the champions of two P6 conferences.

As I stated earlier, I think the seeding is actually pretty good. I wish we were seeded higher, but we plowed our own field and have reap what we can. We should have been 20-5, not 17-8.

100%. They've been ranked all season and are ranked #17 right now, so by that metric they should have been a 4 or 5 seed. They're top 10 in the models people look at, so by those metrics should have been a 2 or 3 seed.

So what's their reward? To face off against the ACC Tournament Champion in round 1 who is ranked almost as high as they are. Then in round 2 they have to face off against the Big Ten Tournament Champion. Georgia Tech has won 8 games in a row and Illinois has won 7 games in row. We are two of the hottest teams in the country right now.

Houston and Winthrop have won 7 in a row. Colgate has won 13 in a row. San Diego State has won 14 in a row. Gonzaga has won 26 in a row.

 

[RonJohn]

I think the arguments over how teams are picked and seeded makes my CFP selection statements even more true. At least in NCAA basketball, the committee cannot keep out a team that qualifies. By "qualifies" I mean gets entered because they meet the aq requirements of their conference. I think all conferences now have a tournament and the tournament winner gets the aq. Louisville might feel bad that they weren't given a mulligan by the committee, but they had an opportunity and didn't produce. In football, UCF had zero chance in 2018 no matter what they did. Coastal Carolina had zero chance in 2020 no matter what they did. If GT, Ohio State, Alabama, Texas, and USC go undefeated in 2021, GT will have zero chance. Whining about seeding, or about not getting a second chance is much better than winning every game by 40 points and not getting any chance at all.

 

[lauraee]

Here is a fun exercise to look at between two teams. In your head (don't look any of this up ahead of time to see who the teams are), play guess if they are in the tournament or not, and if so what seed.

Team 1) P5 team. Finished 3rd in the conference. 5 games above 0.500 in conference play, 9 games above 0.500 overall. Ranked #25 in the AP poll. 1 game over 0.500 against the Top 25. 1 game below 0.500 against the Top 50.

Team 2) P5 team. Finished 9th in the conference. 2 games below 0.500 in conference play. 3 games above 0.500 overall. Unranked in AP poll. 4 games below 0.500 against the Top 25. 6 games below 0.500 against the Top 50.
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They are both 10 seeds.

I know the 1st is Vatech. 2nd Maryland?

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I know the 1st is Vatech. 2nd Maryland?

I'm old and can't even remember from 10 minutes ago. But I think that's correct.

 

[jacketup]

If GT, Ohio State, Alabama, Texas, and USC go undefeated in 2021, GT will have zero chance. Whining about seeding, or about not getting a second chance is much better than winning every game by 40 points and not getting any chance at all.

Your example is probably true, but why? Because of seeding. We would be seeded fifth in all likelihood.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Here is another fun exercise to look at between two teams. In your head (don't look any of this up ahead of time to see who the teams are), play guess if they are in the tournament or not, and if so what seed.

Team 1) P5 team. Played right at 0.500 in conference play. Average rating across NET/Sagarin/KenPom: 37. 2 wins below 0.500 against the Top 25. 3 games below 0.500 against the Top 50.

Team 2) P5 team. 5 games above 0.500 in conference play. Average rating across NET/Sagarin/KenPom: 29. 2 wins below 0.500 against the Top 25. 4 games below 0.500 against the Top 50.
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Team 1 didn't get an invite, Team 2 is an 8 seed.

 

[Techster]

UNC is the quintessential boom or bust team. They've got talent, they're long, and they have athletes almost everywhere...much like FSU. However, you don't know if you're getting the good UNC or the bad UNC on any given night. It would not shock me to see them in the Final 4, and it wouldn't shock me to see them lose to Wisconsin in the first round...even though Wisconsin is a good team.

 

[GT_EE78]

anyone know if there's a swarm bracket this year?

 

[Gold1]

haha saw this thread late and did the same thing, then thought, "Oh no, @Gold1 isn't going to stand for this ) which is more disrespectful I ask you?

1) The Nine Seed?
--- Or ---
2) Using our secondary color for us?

2 lmao

 

[Techster]

 

[slugboy]

I don’t know if there’s a facepalm emoji we can add, but it’d fit that story

 

[lauraee]

Yay, no tv teddy. They better not have infected any acc teams.