Bracketology 2024

[MtnWasp]

I really don't have a horse in this race, but I see both sides. I agree that the seedings are based on a statistical algorithm and that the committee has pretty much stuck to the output of that process. So, in that regard there is no bias.

However, the selection and seeding algorithm is supposed to be predictive. I think the results are questionable.

Much of the selection and seeding processes are dependent of strength of schedule. It is suspicious that the conferences with all the money seem to be rewarded in pay-out to a greater degree than the tournament outcomes should suggest. This does smack of bias / corruption. The statistical algorithm could be the product of financial interests to maintain their standing and to maximize their revenues. This would not be the first instance in which the powerful control the system to increase their power.

 

[Peacone36]

I really don't have a horse in this race, but I see both sides. I agree that the seedings are based on a statistical algorithm and that the committee has pretty much stuck to the output of that process. So, in that regard there is no bias.

However, the selection and seeding algorithm is supposed to be predictive. I think the results are questionable.

Much of the selection and seeding processes are dependent of strength of schedule. It is suspicious that the conferences with all the money seem to be rewarded in pay-out to a greater degree than the tournament outcomes should suggest. This does smack of bias / corruption. The statistical algorithm could be the product of financial interests to maintain their standing and to maximize their revenues. This would not be the first instance in which the powerful control the system to increase their power.

UK rcving a #3 was ridiculous.

 

[Root4GT]

Peacone, very weak sauce.

The final AP rankings have USCe at #16 (but they were a 6 seed) and TXT at #22 (also a 6 seed). The ACC? UNC #5 and Dook #13. That’s it. Somehow, the ACC has 4 teams in the Sweet 16.

LOL.

Seedings would "expect" UNC and Duke to make the Sweet 16. They would have had to have been upset not to get there. UNC bead a 16 & 9 seed to get there. They "should" win those games as a 1 seed. D

Duke as a 4 seed beat a 12 and 13 seed. Again as a 4 seed they "should" win those games.

Clemson as a 6 seed beat and 11 seed and a 2 seed. They "should" have beaten the 11 seed. Beating a 2 seed was clearly an upset and a big win for Clemson. Clemson showed early in the OOC part of the season they could beat very good teams. They had some "bad" ACC losses to GT, ND, BC and Miami. Those likely dropped them down one seed.

NCST - no one saw what h they have done coming. The best ACC Tournament run in History and a very good win over 6 seeded Texas Tech. They got a break when Oakland beat Kentucky so they beat a 14 seed in their 2nd tournament game.

UVA stunk the joint out as a 10 seed getting killed by another 10 seed.

Bottom line the ACC teams in the Tournament have 2 upsets in 9 games they have played and no losses to lower seeded teams. The 5 ACC teams selected have done well. NCST is the hero of the group so far as they have far exceeded expectations from 2 weeks ago.

 

[slugboy]

UK rcving a #3 was ridiculous.

As a sucker who picked them to win their first game, I agree

 

[ESPNjacket]

UK rcving a #3 was ridiculous.

So was South Carolina as a 6.

South Carolina was 51 in NET. Pitt was 40. UVA 54.

 

[leatherneckjacket]

It’s not better so why should they get in without a better resume. Losing to Missouri is one of the 3 worst possible P6 losses. That is a dagger for a resume. Pitt is likely in beating Missouri. They had their chance and blew it.

They came in 4th in the ACC. That alone gives them a better resume than the other teams who also played no one out of conference.

 

[Root4GT]

They came in 4th in the ACC. That alone gives them a better resume than the other teams who also played no one out of conference.

USC East had a weak OOC schedule. Not as bad as Pitt’s. Some of Pitt’s was simply bad luck as Missouri, WVA and Oregon State all turned out to be last place finishers in their Conferences. No way to predict that when scheduling the games.

USC East seems seeded too high for sure. Miss St likely should have been a first four out.

As previously discussed, the SEC and Big 12 teams playing 18 vs 20 conference games that the ACC and B1G play which gives them an advantage to build their resume prior to conference play. That matters for NET Rankings.

Unless the ACC goes to 18 game schedules or the Big 12 and SEC go to 20 game schedules the ACC will always be at a disadvantage using the NET/Quad system.

Will the ACC Leadership wake up and fix the issue? Not likely.

 

[Peacone36]

NET rankings are also performance driven which I am not sure I agree with. I'm not sure I disagree either. A win is still a win but you're rewarded for point differential as well. Being the 351st ranked team in the nation in tempo means you're likely not blowing many teams out. I don't say that as any kind of support for SC, just another caveat of how the NET works.

Similar to Pitt actually, who ranked 295th in tempo. Pitt has an AMOV of 8 ppg (that takes loss margin into account as well) while USCe's was only 4.5.

 

[RamblinRed]

There are alot of coaches who felt the B12 was gaming the system this year.
Very few B12 teams had strong OOC SoS. They mostly beat up alot of bad teams by huge margins. In the more performance driven metrics that drives up their ratings. Then they played each other and stayed high by beating each other.

 

[ESPNjacket]

NET rankings are also performance driven which I am not sure I agree with. I'm not sure I disagree either. A win is still a win but you're rewarded for point differential as well. Being the 351st ranked team in the nation in tempo means you're likely not blowing many teams out. I don't say that as any kind of support for SC, just another caveat of how the NET works.

Similar to Pitt actually, who ranked 295th in tempo. Pitt has an AMOV of 8 ppg (that takes loss margin into account as well) while USCe's was only 4.5.

They stopped including margin of victory in 2020.

With the changes announced in May 2020, the NET will no longer use winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and scoring margin. The change was made after the committee consulted with Google Cloud Professional Services, which worked with the NCAA to develop the original NET.

Link to NCAA explanation

They have a Team Value Index, which is a SOS metric that adjust for opponent strength and home vs. away. They also have an adjusted efficiency rating, similar to kenpom. I hadn't looked at this in a while.

 

[57jacket]

They stopped including margin of victory in 2020.

With the changes announced in May 2020, the NET will no longer use winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and scoring margin. The change was made after the committee consulted with Google Cloud Professional Services, which worked with the NCAA to develop the original NET.

Link to NCAA explanation

They have a Team Value Index, which is a SOS metric that adjust for opponent strength and home vs. away. They also have an adjusted efficiency rating, similar to kenpom. I hadn't looked at this in a while.

What a crock!

 

[Root4GT]

There are alot of coaches who felt the B12 was gaming the system this year.
Very few B12 teams had strong OOC SoS. They mostly beat up alot of bad teams by huge margins. In the more performance driven metrics that drives up their ratings. Then they played each other and stayed high by beating each other.

Red you know more about basketball ongoings than about any of us on this board. I looked at all the Big 12 teams in the Tournament and their OOC schedules looked very similar to most ACC teams OOC schedules except they had 2 more OOC games each. TCU and Texas Tech seemed to fit what you said. Conversely Baylor and Kansas had very difficult OOC schedules. Kansas played UCONN, Marquet, Kentucky and Tennessee. That is an extremely difficult OOC set of opponents.

The extra 2 OOC games matter a lot as you can add either a good or bad team which has potential to improve your pre conference resume.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

How is it that the ACC has 4 teams in top 16 and most of the recent pages are bitching? We can ***** about anything.

This discussion mirrors baseball NCAAT seeding, I guess since they are also RPI driven to a large extent. Baseball has the benefit of 60+ games for a season and basketball about 40. The ranking system is known and smart coaching staffs schedule tougher OOC games, Even if you lose some of them, you still pick up a lot of points for playing them, especially away. And maybe get better playing better teams early on.

 

[MidtownJacket]

As the.. Ahem..

*WALKS TO MICROPHONE, TAPS IT ONCE, SHUFFLES PAPERS

CURRENT LEADER IN THE CLUBHOUSE of our bracket challenge*


I have some thoughts. We got shafted in seedings last year as the ACCT winner. Then NCState got the same this year.

I will continue to say, "check the unit to teams ratio" until it no longer applies. Then I will find another reason why the ACC is the best conference.

I take the point that the SEC builds their own conference momentum and we in the ACC seems to be happy to put eachother down to our mutual detriment.

 

[slugboy]

As the.. Ahem..

*WALKS TO MICROPHONE, TAPS IT ONCE, SHUFFLES PAPERS

CURRENT LEADER IN THE CLUBHOUSE of our bracket challenge*


I have some thoughts. We got shafted in seedings last year as the ACCT winner. Then NCState got the same this year.

I will continue to say, "check the unit to teams ratio" until it no longer applies. Then I will find another reason why the ACC is the best conference.

I take the point that the SEC builds their own conference momentum and we in the ACC seems to be happy to put eachother down to our mutual detriment.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Don’t bet on that. Certain fan bases intensely dislike others. One year after LSU beat Ole Miss by getting off 2 plays in the final 4 seconds ( in Baton Rouge, of course), Ole Miss fans put up a billboard on the interstate as you left Mississippi to enter Louisiana saying “ Now entering Louisiana, set your clocks back 4 seconds”.

Is that the same, though?

If LSU fans had put up a billboard that said we got beat because our conference doesn’t measure up to other conferences that would be more like what ACC and Tech fans do.

 

[GT33]

You mean like schedules and results? Would that be considered data?

You’re a GT Man. .517 vs .343 is a 51% difference, so yeah that’s schedules and results. Not go find cupcake U to run up your NET, these are NCAAT vs NCAAT results. Best on best, our’n beat your’n hands down, not even close. C’mon back with some more esecpn BS to entertain us. ACC is head and shoulders above the other conferences, year in year out. Been that way forever.

 

[GT33]

Hey Boss, I know profits are down but we’re talking sec profits. They’re worth more even though they’re worth less. Might work that way in government, academia and the media, but that crap don’t fly in business. Just ask Boeing how it feels when those chickens finally come home to roost. sec’s day is coming.

 

[GT33]

How is it that the ACC has 4 teams in top 16 and most of the recent pages are bitching? We can ***** about anything.

This discussion mirrors baseball NCAAT seeding, I guess since they are also RPI driven to a large extent. Baseball has the benefit of 60+ games for a season and basketball about 40. The ranking system is known and smart coaching staffs schedule tougher OOC games, Even if you lose some of them, you still pick up a lot of points for playing them, especially away. And maybe get better playing better teams early on.

A unit is worth about $350k. If the ACC got 3 fewer teams in than deserved and that would have resulted in 6 more units, the conference got screwed out of a little more than $2M. Do that for a decade and it's a $20M screw job for the ACC, $20M windfall for sec. The interest in games that would generate maybe robs the ACC of another $5M, then there's ticket sales and better recruiting that follws, etc. Wouldn't surprise me if the net impact is $50-75M, or about $5-6M in GT's pocket to deploy, just from basketball. It matters & we can't even get our own fanbase to rally behind our Institute. Now project that to our conference brethren, there's just as bad if not worse. Half the damn posters on here are apologizing because we didn't create the conditions to fork over more $$ to the damn sec so they could widen the gap further. Amazing. Bunch of ankle grabbers. We don't even get a freaking reacharound, we pick fights and argue about whether or not we even deserved a reacharound.

 

[Peacone36]

You’re a GT Man. .517 vs .343 is a 51% difference, so yeah that’s schedules and results. Not go find cupcake U to run up your NET, these are NCAAT vs NCAAT results. Best on best, our’n beat your’n hands down, not even close. C’mon back with some more esecpn BS to entertain us. ACC is head and shoulders above the other conferences, year in year out. Been that way forever.

Are you ****ing brain damaged? I have said multiple times that I am not a big fan of the NET but it is a nice sorting tool.

And no, it isnt. Its propped up by three schools (until recently) and occasionally Florida State or Syracuse making a run in the dance.