Bowl Streak Naysayers

Augusta_Jacket

Helluva Engineer
Messages
4,126
Location
Augusta, Georgia
Going to work now to enjoy some interactions with VT fans. And with UVa fans who are also very happy!

The games will come to us soon enough! NCState is the only highly probable win. Clemson and UGAg the only highly probably losses. Clemson may be closer since we are at home....... the rest will be dog fights where all we have to do is score more points than they do (tic).

I know that Cutcliffe has done an outstanding job at Dook, but I just can't put them into the toss-up category yet. I keep trying to talk myself into it, but I just can't. :)
 

forensicbuzz

Helluva Engineer
Messages
4,093
Location
North Shore, Chicago
Until Duke starts to even up the lop-sidedness of the recent series, I can't get too excited about them. Can they beat us, absolutely, and they might this year. But like UGA probably looks at us, until they do, they don't get the respect they probably deserve.

All this being said, there's not a team on our schedule we can't beat. There's also no gimme game left on our schedule. Some will be tougher than others, but I expect we'll struggle with some that we thought would be easier and excel against others that we anticipated more difficulty with.
 

takethepoints

Helluva Engineer
Messages
4,656
Yep. Just like Navy, still. Maybe the D will jell and we'll have a better chance overall. That's what it'll take, imho; the O will continue to improve unless something truly unforeseen happens. But, of course, our chances for a real good season improved considerably last Saturday.
 

Techster

Helluva Engineer
Messages
13,618
Don't forget, we wen't 6-0 to start 2011...then ended 2-5. Crazier things have happened.

Call me greedy...but just making a bowl isn't good enough for this program anymore. Practically half the teams on this level goes to a bowl game so it's not quite the accomplishment is use to be.

If the football gods said "You can go 7-5 this year, and 8-4 next year or you can go 5-7 this year and 11-2 next year and win the ACC" I'd take the latter scenario every time. Of course, that's not how it works.

I expect us to win the ACC this year and next year! :)
 

DTGT

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
530
When / if the Atomic site comes back up, you could calculate the probabilities. I did that last year for the ACC CG ......... but only once we got close.

But assuming a 50% chance to win every game, we have a .4% chance to win every game and a .4% chance to lose every game (.5^8).

So to not make a bowl, we'd have to lose every game (.4%) or win just one (3.2%) which is a 3.6% likelihood.

Since I assumed the odds of every game at 50% (I am lazy), the odds of winning one particular game and losing all the others is .4% too. 3.6=8*.4% + .4%.
http://www.atomicfootball.com/archive/teams/tm_9.html
 

Wrecking Ball

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
694
We always seem to have the right combination of moxie, talent, coaching, and head-scratching luck (good or bad) to go to a bowl. It would take drastic circumstances for me to think the streak's in danger. From here, a 4-0 start (and I did not think we'd be 4-0) it's almost impossible to honestly believe we won't win 2 more.
 

Boomergump

Helluva Engineer
Featured Member
Messages
3,260
We could easily lose to any one of them......but unless something goes horribly wrong....I do not see us losing to ALL three of them. ;)
I don't think I worded my response well to convey my thoughts. Substitute "any of the three" for "all three" and you will have what I meant. Sorry.
 

Wrecking Ball

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
694
I don't think I worded my response well to convey my thoughts. Substitute "any of the three" for "all three" and you will have what I meant. Sorry.

Boomer, this team feels like the 2011 team now, only with a certified gamebreaker at QB. I think we will see a renewed and energetic team in 2 weeks; I also think we will see at several points this season 1) a 150 yard game by Laskey 2) a 200 yard rushing game by Thomas 3) a 200 yard throwing game by Thomas as teams decide how to take their poison.
 

AE 87

Helluva Engineer
Messages
12,979
Boomer, this team feels like the 2011 team now, only with a certified gamebreaker at QB. I think we will see a renewed and energetic team in 2 weeks; I also think we will see at several points this season 1) a 150 yard game by Laskey 2) a 200 yard rushing game by Thomas 3) a 200 yard throwing game by Thomas as teams decide how to take their poison.

Interesting. It doesn't feel like 2011 to me at all. In 2011, we opened with comparably opposition for the first 3 games (WCU, MTSU, and KS) but averaged ~60 pts/game. We scored on the first play of each of those games. Those first few games were never in doubt. I was silly happy with how well we were playing. This year, I'm optimistic but not as confidently optimistic as I was then.
 

UgaBlows

Helluva Engineer
Messages
4,262
But I also have to say I've watched Virginia in portions of 2 games now and they're big, fast and physical on defense. Tenuta has them playing good football and I think they'll give us a much tougher game than some on here apparently believe.

Cpj>Tenuta......i feel pretty good that Johnson can consistently call paper against Tenuta's rock
 
Top