Bill Connelly's Georgia Tech Preview

[Bogey]

Bill Curry was offered a lot of money by Alabama and he thought he could accomplish things at Alabama that he wouldn't be able to at Georgia Tech. I think Bobby Dodd encouraged him to take the Alabama head coaching job.

I lived in north west Alabama in the late sixties and knew well the hate that Alabama fans had for everything Tech and it's fans, and vice versa. When Curry signed on at the University of Alabama in Tuscaloosa, I knew he would NEVER be accepted by Tide nation. I suspect he knew that too since he played during the Chick Graning incident and the Dodd/Bryant feud. He probably did it for the money.

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[Heisman's Ghost]

https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...ia-tech-football-2019-preview-schedule-roster

Very low expectations generated from his S&P+ formula. Only explicitly favored in the Citadel game (yikes) but I don't think there's any way for his formula to capture all Da Juice this team has. And I always like being projected to do poorly going into the season. I feel like that's when Tech plays the best.

Well, he does not seem to think much of our returning talent does he? I see this season a bit differently. Like the author I see us as a prohibitive favorite in only one game and a prohibitive underdog in two. Unlike the author, I see us as being pretty competitive in all of the rest of the games. The Chinese have a saying for this: "A journey of ten thousand miles begins with one step" Let the journey begin and we will see how it shakes out.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

Now having said that, this time next year when we're heading into the 2020 season (where we play 10 games against teams that were ranked last year), if they said "The schedule is too damn tough" and predict 4 or 5 wins, I would give them a thumbs up for at least pointing out something rational that is materially different than the past. But a lot of the ACC is a quasi-dumpster fire with player turnover - its not like Duke, Pitt, UNC, Virginia, or Virginia Tech are in a very stable, unbeatable position.

It is going to get "tougher" before it gets any easier.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

Our history with Head Coach changes is inconclusive, at best:
Curry -> Ross --- 5-5-1 -> 2-9 (I wasn't alive, don't know what happened)
Ross -> Lewis --- 8-5 -> 5-6 (Bill Lewis was a bad coach, and they lost a lot of talent)
Lewis -> O'Leary --- 1-10 -> 6-5 (Bill Lewis was a very bad coach)
O'Leary -> Chan --- 8-5 -> 7-6 (Chan Gailey Equilibrium)
Chan -> CPJ --- 7-6 -> 9-4 (Dwyer + Nesbitt + maybe our best defensive talent since Ross + a better Coach)
CPJ -> Collins --- 7-6 -> ??? (Losing a ton of starters...beyond that, who knows)

Curry's seniors did not like Coach Ross and it was a matter of a change in culture that resulted in that transition's problems which were considerable. Bobby Ross, George O'Leary, and Paul Johnson are the three best coaches at Tech in over a half century. They did about as well as could be expected with the limitations they had to deal with. It would be difficult to pick one of the three as the best but Coach Ross was the only one to win a national championship so maybe he was the best. As far as difficulty in transitioning, Coach Curry had, in my estimation, the most difficult challenge of any of them. Awful facilities, terrible recruiting, poor image state wide, inadequate academic support, very little talent or depth, just a bad situation all the way around but he was a Tech Man and knew what he was getting into and managed to revive a program that many thought was just about finished. His motto was taken from Churchill: "Never, Never, Never, Quit!" His jackets took that to heart.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

Wish I thought I could say he's wrong. I think he is, but he's also made a very solid case. The main problem with that case is that it is based on some suppositions that probably aren't true.

The main problems I see with his offensive outlook are at WR and OL. True, we don't have many WRs coming back who have caught a lot of balls recently. And we almost never did under Paul because we didn't throw much. But, if Patenaude's reaction is any indication, we have good WRs already and we'll have more coming in. I expect Camp and Sanders (provided he avoids injury) to have great years and Brown and Cottrell could as well. The speed and hands are there and, if that doesn't work, there always brute strength. I also don't have any real fears about the OL. Key seems to think we are still "a work in progress", but he also seems to think the talent is there. I think he's right; if you can learn to block in the spread option, the shotgun blocking schemes are nothing. Then all it takes is more work in the weight room and a willingness to carry more of a gut. Not a problem, imho. Oh, and I don't think QB will be an issue.

On D, unfortunately, I think he's right, especially after Brandon's death. Our one saving grace there is that Coach is as much a D specialist as Paul was an offensive one. I think we'll be a trifle thin up front, but we could be ok, if not great.

And all that said, I don't really have a clue about how good we'll be next year.

"...I don't really have a clue about how good we'll be next year" Don't feel bad neither does anyone else.

 

[ncjacket79]

Well, he does not seem to think much of our returning talent does he? I see this season a bit differently. Like the author I see us as a prohibitive favorite in only one game and a prohibitive underdog in two. Unlike the author, I see us as being pretty competitive in all of the rest of the games. The Chinese have a saying for this: "A journey of ten thousand miles begins with one step" Let the journey begin and we will see how it shakes out.

Why would he? The honest assessment would be that most of them haven’t done anything, particularly what they will be called to do in the new schemes. We are going off faith, he and other national writers are going off of “what have you done “. The answer to that is not much. I’m hopeful

 

[GT14]

“Psychics” use two tricks when making predictions: (1) be very vague such that it will almost certainly happen: “You’ll meet an interesting man.” And (2) if they get too specific, heavily hedge the prediction so they can C their A when if it doesn’t happen: “It’s a bit hazy, but I think the man will be important to your future. He might be your future husband, but I can’t be entirely certain. The universe is sending me mixed signals.” Often psychics use new, poorly understood “technology” to make their predictions: crystal balls, palm reading, tarot cards, proprietary computer models, etc.

It’s a scam as old as time.

If you believe he's akin to a psychic why bother reading the article? And if you didn't read the article, why bother commenting? He's got what some people (myself included) think is a cool formula, and is pretty self aware of and candid with its shortcomings. It's fun.

We are going to perform the same whether he predicts we win 0 games, 12 games, or any number in between. But hey it's the off-season, and some (myself included) think these things are neat. Others can think they're dumb and that's fine.

 

[Novajacket]

He has an interesting formula, but in my opinion he didn’t make the right adjustments. Mainly he has the Defensive S&P going from 100 to 102. I think the new staff at Temple was in the 40’s and 30’s. I feel they can improve us to at least 80’s. I agree with Offensive S&P going from 40 to 57. So that little change would have us win a couple more games to put us at 6 wins.

 

[iceeater1969]

He has an interesting formula, but in my opinion he didn’t make the right adjustments. Mainly he has the Defensive S&P going from 100 to 102. I think the new staff at Temple was in the 40’s and 30’s. I feel they can improve us to at least 80’s. I agree with Offensive S&P going from 40 to 57. So that little change would have us win a couple more games to put us at 6 wins.

Thanks for going beyond the "Imo, i say it low" and using your reasoning as dictated by numbers.

Looking forward to the season and more posts.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

Why would he? The honest assessment would be that most of them haven’t done anything, particularly what they will be called to do in the new schemes. We are going off faith, he and other national writers are going off of “what have you done “. The answer to that is not much. I’m hopeful

Seems to be a reasonable assumption but that is precisely the same conclusion most observers would have drawn from Coach Johnson's first spring practice admittedly with a more talented crew on defense.

 

[ncjacket79]

Seems to be a reasonable assumption but that is precisely the same conclusion most observers would have drawn from Coach Johnson's first spring practice admittedly with a more talented crew on defense.

Agree. But that more talented free on defense was a huge advantage. We simply don’t know what we have at this point, especially with our performance the last few years

 

[forensicbuzz]

I’ll be drinking Woodford on Weekends this Fall no matter where we end up between 0-12 and 15-0.

I have 135 bottles of bourbon, and I have to say, Woodford is not amongst them. I do not care for Woodford Reserve or Angel's Envy. There are so many better options. Hell, JW Dant and Early Times Bottled-in-Bond are better options.

 

[forensicbuzz]

Until we lose a game, I think we will go 14-0 next year. After that first lost, I'm still thinking 13-1.

 

[stech81]

Until we lose a game, I think we will go 14-0 next year. After that first lost, I'm still thinking 13-1.

you did mean 15-0

 

[forensicbuzz]

you did mean 15-0

right. I forgot we have to play in the ACC Championship. They won't just give it to us for beating Clemson to open the season.

 

[gtphd]

If you believe he's akin to a psychic why bother reading the article? And if you didn't read the article, why bother commenting? He's got what some people (myself included) think is a cool formula, and is pretty self aware of and candid with its shortcomings. It's fun.

There's nothing wrong with a psychic, as long as you recognize what it is: a bit of fun.

As far as accuracy goes, I'll use the Arbitrage Theory from the Finance Literature on this one: if his formula was any good, he wouldn't need to work and wouldn't give it away for free.

 

[85Escape]

I have 135 bottles of bourbon...

With bourbon still in them?

 

[forensicbuzz]

With bourbon still in them?

yup

 

[THWG16]

I don’t think we’ll be that bad , but even if we struggle I’m still very optimistic for the future

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

Agree. But that more talented free on defense was a huge advantage. We simply don’t know what we have at this point, especially with our performance the last few years

Yep. Many a time the last few years I found myself thinking: "Morgan, Darryl Richards, Vance Walker and the rest of that gang would not tolerate this crap of people moving at will against our defense." But if you don't recruit, defense is the first place it shows up. We just did not have the players. I finished watching the Miami and Virginia games from last year and marveled that we won both of them. They had better players on both sides of the ball but our guys played lights out and Coach Johnson did his thing. Our kickers were outstanding also in those two games. The look on Mark R. face was telling. He knew it was the end of the road I think. Imagine he was on top of the world a couple of years ago with a 10 game win streak to open the season and then lost the last three. Opened last year as the number 8 team in the county lost to LSU and then had Duke just flat out wore them out. Came into BDS hoping to right the ship and got bush wacked. It can get away from you just that quick.