Bill Connelly's Georgia Tech Preview

[BurdellJacket]

Piss on him and yes uga, 8 wins next year. And if I was uga I wouldn't over look us.

Well I'll just 2nd, 3rd and 4th that @stech81 !!! Well done!

 

[gtwcf]

Dont get the hate for Virginia Tech, they are my personal favorite to win the coastal this year. They lost almost every important starter on defense heading into last year, and are now a much older team. ~18 total returning starters isn't something to scoff at, especially 11 that started at one point on defense.

They lost a lot of players to the portal, and had chemistry issues last year. They haven't gotten the same level of DB play there on defense basically since their DB coach left and they ran out of Fullers. This made their defense a lot more limited. Their QB is quite streaky.

I think we finish the cycle in the Coastal with UVa winning it this year, assuming Bryce Perkins stays healthy. Bronco will have them solid on D.

 

[YJMD]

This isn't an awful job. He's done it systematically and considered a great deal of things. There are things that can't be incorporated such as the drastic scheme changes, and there are things that are missed in the talent evaluation such as the transfers coming in. I do think, in general, his point about identity being important to success is a good one. I don't think it particularly applies to us. Building a brand is what Collins is all about, after all. But, on the offensive side, we certainly don't have a scheme that sets us apart, and we will play up tempo, but we're probably not going to try to set records with that. We'll run and pass in a variety of ways but I hope not out of obstinance on balance but in ways that reduce predictability and don't allow defenses to tailor schemes to take away our strengths.

However, I think the prediction he draws is also quite wrong. There is a luck factor that could have us going 4-8 but not really being as bad as our record (like the 2015 season), but by no means do I think we project there. I think that our team in the offseason has made more gains physically, in experience, and in talent where we needed than I've ever seen a football team make. I expect that to outpace whatever catching up we need to do for scheme changes. Probably puts us back into the territory we have been in over the last 5 years, so I'll say 6-6 regular season but upshot of competing for division crown and low likelihood but possibility of grueling losing season.

 

[Techster]

What I said - it completely ignores history. When CPJ was hired, it was going to be a transition year (oops). Same thing before. We've changed head coaches and offensive/defensive schemes SEVERAL times, not just once, over the last 25 years. And yet, we have 1 single year under 0.500 in ACC play in the last 25 years. Not 1 single other ACC school can say that.

I mean sure, we could win only 4 games. But based on the last 25 years, we have a 7x higher chance of winning the Coastal Division than of winning only 4 games.

Remember last year? Pre-season we were predicted to finish like 11th in the ACC. Same bull**** - we never finish there. And where did we finish? 4th. Happens every year. Idiots.

CPJ also inherited a defense that had an entire DL that was drafted. That DL was a highly ranked unit before CPJ even stepped on campus. All the DBs eventually were either drafted or spent multiple years in the NFL.

There were 2 future NFL OLs (Cord Howard, Andrew Gardner), a future 1st round WR, a 2 time all ACC RB (though argument can be made CPJ's system helped with that) that was drafted and played multiple years in the NFL.

Transition year, YES, but there was still high level talent.

CGC has, IMO, a very talented (but young) defensive backfield, but the front 7 is a huge question mark. Offensively, who would you consider on the caliber of Gardner and Howard on the OL? Dwyer at RB? Demaryius at WR?

I get that GT has often been overlooked, but with a talent level that doesn't match the 2008 team that CPJ had, and new coaches and systems on both sides, I can see where Connolly is coming from. Anyone being objective and fair can relate to what he's saying.

Now, as a GT fan, and knowing how the Coastal is ripe for the taking, if GT does not win at least 6 games I'd be disappointed.

That's why they play the games. We'll see.

 

[LibertyTurns]

I hope Vegas agrees with him and gives us an O/U of 4. If so, I’ll either be winning or losing a lot of money at season’s end.

Please post immediately if anyone sees and O/U at 4 or less. I’m wanting to buy a bunch of toys and could use the extra cash.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

CPJ also inherited a defense that had an entire DL that was drafted. That DL was a highly ranked unit before CPJ even stepped on campus. All the DBs eventually were either drafted or spent multiple years in the NFL.

There were 2 future NFL OLs (Cord Howard, Andrew Gardner), a future 1st round WR, a 2 time all ACC RB (though argument can be made CPJ's system helped with that) that was drafted and played multiple years in the NFL.

Transition year, YES, but there was still high level talent.

CGC has, IMO, a very talented (but young) defensive backfield, but the front 7 is a huge question mark. Offensively, who would you consider on the caliber of Gardner and Howard on the OL? Dwyer at RB? Demaryius at WR?

I get that GT has often been overlooked, but with a talent level that doesn't match the 2008 team that CPJ had, and new coaches and systems on both sides, I can see where Connolly is coming from. Anyone being objective and fair can relate to what he's saying.

Now, as a GT fan, and knowing how the Coastal is ripe for the taking, if GT does not win at least 6 games I'd be disappointed.

That's why they play the games. We'll see.

And yet isn't it amazing we weren't predicted to do well that year either. These predictions are always insane. Something tells me if we had a lot of talent, they'd still predict us to do poorly. Because they always do.

As a reminder, in 2008 we were picked to finish 4th...just in the Coastal that year. Something like 8th out of the then 12 teams. Of course, yawn, we went 9-3 in the regular season, and won the ACC the next year.

 

[knoxjacket]

CPJ also inherited a defense that had an entire DL that was drafted. That DL was a highly ranked unit before CPJ even stepped on campus. All the DBs eventually were either drafted or spent multiple years in the NFL.

There were 2 future NFL OLs (Cord Howard, Andrew Gardner), a future 1st round WR, a 2 time all ACC RB (though argument can be made CPJ's system helped with that) that was drafted and played multiple years in the NFL.

Transition year, YES, but there was still high level talent.

CGC has, IMO, a very talented (but young) defensive backfield, but the front 7 is a huge question mark. Offensively, who would you consider on the caliber of Gardner and Howard on the OL? Dwyer at RB? Demaryius at WR?

I get that GT has often been overlooked, but with a talent level that doesn't match the 2008 team that CPJ had, and new coaches and systems on both sides, I can see where Connolly is coming from. Anyone being objective and fair can relate to what he's saying.

Now, as a GT fan, and knowing how the Coastal is ripe for the taking, if GT does not win at least 6 games I'd be disappointed.

That's why they play the games. We'll see.

We also got to play two FCS teams that year.

 

[RamblinCharger]

I didn't think it was an outrageous prediction. I enjoyed the data presented. I think we are more like a 6-7 win team, but 4 is not out of the question.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I didn't think it was an outrageous prediction. I enjoyed the data presented. I think we are more like a 6-7 win team, but 4 is not out of the question.

Right, we could win only 4 games. We could also win 10. In the last 25 years, we've won 10 or more games 3x as often than we've won 4 or fewer games. We've won 9 or more games 7x as often as we've won 4 or fewer games. So why does everyone always predict the low end option?

 

[LibertyTurns]

32 percent chance of beating Temple? Lordy.

If I was CGC I’d post this on my wall. They must not think very much of him or his coaching staff to puke on our team like that. CGC must be smoking if he read that projection.

If we don’t steamroll Temple now, I won’t really know what to make of the character of our team and staff.

I’ll reaffirm my 8 win prediction. We’re running an easier offense with a better QB, the defense will be coached better. That’s good enough for 2-3 extra wins right there.

 

[smathis30]

They lost a lot of players to the portal, and had chemistry issues last year. They haven't gotten the same level of DB play there on defense basically since their DB coach left and they ran out of Fullers. This made their defense a lot more limited. Their QB is quite streaky.

I think we finish the cycle in the Coastal with UVa winning it this year, assuming Bryce Perkins stays healthy. Bronco will have them solid on D.

VT started 11 people for the first time on defense alone last year, more than literally every other team in the nation. Portal hit them on offense, not defense, and they still return over 50% of their starters, and the most returning production of literally everyone in the ACC. They got demolished by injuries last year, and should be better for that reason alone. They had 5 DBs out for multiple games, which was the bigger issue with chemistry. Playing with different people every week does that. UVA is obviously a favorite as well, but IMO VT also has the pieces in play to make a run. They arguably had the youngest and least experienced team last year, and can only get better, especially on defense.

 

[redmule]

CPJ also inherited a defense that had an entire DL that was drafted. That DL was a highly ranked unit before CPJ even stepped on campus. All the DBs eventually were either drafted or spent multiple years in the NFL.

There were 2 future NFL OLs (Cord Howard, Andrew Gardner), a future 1st round WR, a 2 time all ACC RB (though argument can be made CPJ's system helped with that) that was drafted and played multiple years in the NFL.

Transition year, YES, but there was still high level talent.

CGC has, IMO, a very talented (but young) defensive backfield, but the front 7 is a huge question mark. Offensively, who would you consider on the caliber of Gardner and Howard on the OL? Dwyer at RB? Demaryius at WR?

I get that GT has often been overlooked, but with a talent level that doesn't match the 2008 team that CPJ had, and new coaches and systems on both sides, I can see where Connolly is coming from. Anyone being objective and fair can relate to what he's saying.

Now, as a GT fan, and knowing how the Coastal is ripe for the taking, if GT does not win at least 6 games I'd be disappointed.

That's why they play the games. We'll see.

Gardner Webb must have had a ton of NFL talent that year, also.

 

[link3945]

Another idiot predicts our worst year in the last 25 years. Despite having been through several different coaches and offensive/defensive schemes before without having bad seasons, somehow this season will just be different. Despite all the historical data contradicting him, he just knows in his gut that he's right. Despite the fact people predict horse **** like this every year on us and they're wrong, he just knows in his gut that he's going to be right. Idiots.

He's not using his gut, he's using a formula that he's developed over a decade, and it tests very well against others. He does not care so much about our history, but he's looking at every single season by ANY FBS team since about 2007 when he started doing this. GT might be special, but we probably aren't, so we're probably going to look pretty similar to other teams that match our profile of returning production and talent coming in. That profile, against our schedule, projects us (and any team that looks like us) to go 4-8 on average.

 

[smokey_wasp]

If I was CGC I’d post this on my wall. They must not think very much of him or his coaching staff to puke on our team like that. CGC must be smoking if he read that projection.

If we don’t steamroll Temple now, I won’t really know what to make of the character of our team and staff.

I’ll reaffirm my 8 win prediction. We’re running an easier offense with a better QB, the defense will be coached better. That’s good enough for 2-3 extra wins right there.

If we are actual underdogs vs Temple, we will lose to Clemson by 125 points. lol

 

[85Escape]

I'm impressed with the physical gains we are seeing with the returners. I'm not a football genius, but I think stronger and bigger is almost always better as long as the speed holds. As to the Coastal, Duke has had our number during the last few years, but they just gave up a #6 pick at QB. I think we beat them. Virginia is definitely on the rise and we'll likely lose that this year. UNC is going to come back with Mack, but they'll be a mess this year I think. My prediction is that the Coastal will return to a GT vs Frenchmen vs Cheaters division over the next few years.

I'm sticking to my 6 win low-side (Citadel, Temple, Duke, UNC, Pitt, State) with 8 win up-side (+USF, +Miami) prediction for 2019. I'm an optimist, what can I say?

 

[33jacket]

I agree and disagree. We sucked 2 years ago because half of the team (exaggeration alert) was injured. We didn't suck 2 years ago, we didn't get to play a full schedule. We lost 3 games by a total of 6 points. We had more offense (by far in some cases) than half the teams we lost to, LOL. We were a 0.500 team with half our losses by 1 point. If he predicted a 6-6 season or something, I'd yawn and say he's probably on the right track. But he's not predicting 6 or 7 wins, he's predicting 4 wins. We haven't had 4 wins or less but once in 25 years.

But I personally can see 4 wins. I am saying 5 maybe 6. But one bounce the wrong way and 4.

We have a tough schedule too. So for me i can see it. Its not soooooo crazy. Now. If he said this after 2014 I would say he was crazy. Except he woulda been right

 

[Deleted member 2897]

He's not using his gut, he's using a formula that he's developed over a decade, and it tests very well against others. He does not care so much about our history, but he's looking at every single season by ANY FBS team since about 2007 when he started doing this. GT might be special, but we probably aren't, so we're probably going to look pretty similar to other teams that match our profile of returning production and talent coming in. That profile, against our schedule, projects us (and any team that looks like us) to go 4-8 on average.

They always have some excuse like that every year. And every year they’re wrong. Hopefully they keep their streak alive of ooking stupid. Although eventually the odds are they’ll be right once at some point.

 

[lv20gt]

Right, we could win only 4 games. We could also win 10. In the last 25 years, we've won 10 or more games 3x as often than we've won 4 or fewer games. We've won 9 or more games 7x as often as we've won 4 or fewer games. So why does everyone always predict the low end option?

Probability doesn't work the way you think it does. The fact that we have won 9 or more games 7x as often we've won 4 or fewer is irrelevant.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

A few other things:
1) The Coastal is not great.
2) Unlike most years where 2-3 teams get a Bye Week before playing us. This year there are 0.
3) Our attendance looks to take a step change this year based on ticket sales. Hopefully that hype positively impacts some games too.
4) We usually average 6-7 Noon games a year (which hurt attendance). So far we have none of those in the 3 games that have set times.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Probability doesn't work the way you think it does. The fact that we have won 9 or more games 7x as often we've won 4 or fewer is irrelevant.

Not really. If you’re going to predict an extreme outlier, you should have reasons why. Showing some math formula predictor that has never predicted correctly before doesn’t seem like a valid source of information. They’re not looking at the Coastal, the lack of Bye Weeks, and other things. If every year I make a prediction about GT I’m wrong, I might eventually slow down and rethink myself for a minute. We finished 4th last year in the ACC and we were predicted something like 11th in the preseason using a lot of these same arguments.