Bill Connelly's 2017 GT Preview

[AE 87]

It just all depends......I see it playing out two ways..
10-2

UT: W
Jax state: W
UCF: W
Pitt: W
UNC: W
Miami: Loss
WF: W
Clemson: Loss
Virginia: W
VT: W
Duke: W
UGA: W (We finally beat Georgia at Home)

However it could go like this also (The 7 win curse strikes back)
7-5

UT: Loss
Jax state: W
UCF: W
Pitt: W
UNC: W
Miami: Loss
WF: W
Clemson: Loss
Virginia: W
VT: Loss
Duke: W
UGA: Loss

Wrong. No way it plays out two ways.

 

[swampsting]

Pitt: Toss up. We should win this, but they have our number the last few years.

They've won back to back games but that was on a last second long range FG and then on a tipped ball for a TD and when we couldn't get a yard on fourth down. We got a slew of fumbles three years ago but we also ran for a mile against them.
Something else I like about Jordan, other than his toughness and his better than expected athletic ability, is the way he takes command. Go back to the VT game and watch him go up and down the line, making sure everybody had the call and was going in the right direction. I think he can be every bit the leader JT was.

I'm OK with our defensive scheme, especially since we don't have a dominating D line. We started tackling better too and Corey Griffin made a ton of plays. We'll miss Gamble and PJ but Corey was huge down the stretch last year. We may take more chances defensively with the secondary we have back. If we can stay away from the injury bug and at least break even with turnovers, I think this will be a good year.

 

[wreckrod]

They've won back to back games but that was on a last second long range FG and then on a tipped ball for a TD and when we couldn't get a yard on fourth down. We got a slew of fumbles three years ago but we also ran for a mile against them.
Something else I like about Jordan, other than his toughness and his better than expected athletic ability, is the way he takes command. Go back to the VT game and watch him go up and down the line, making sure everybody had the call and was going in the right direction. I think he can be every bit the leader JT was.

I'm OK with our defensive scheme, especially since we don't have a dominating D line. We started tackling better too and Corey Griffin made a ton of plays

A dominating D line would be great for anyone's defense. I just would rather see us attack. Be the hammer, not the nail.

 

[Whiskey_Clear]

Miami won't manhandle us. They have a good D but not Clemson good. Their O isn't scary. We played our 2nd worst game last year against them. I don't think we play poorly against them again this year. Toss up game.

 

[g0lftime]

We need to stay healthy on OL and DL. Need to get backup QB game experience real fast. MJ keepers make him vulnerable. JT seemed to know how to go down to avoid injury.

 

[tech_wreck47]

Miami won't manhandle us. They have a good D but not Clemson good. Their O isn't scary. We played our 2nd worst game last year against them. I don't think we play poorly against them again this year. Toss up game.

Agree 100 percent. We actually moved the ball on them. Around 400 yards. Our issue was the back to back fumbles that resulted in TD's. From that point on we were having to play catch up. It's not like they manhandled us.

 

[slugboy]

Awbuzz, I noticed that too. It is still hard to believe that a 9-4 record is a 45th rank in general. There must have been a lot of high wins and low wins and not much in the middle.

Schedule differences is Tenn versus Vandy (slight increase but Vandy did beat Tenn), Jax Versus Mercer (Increase), UCF versus GSU (tie), and WF versus BC (tie) which yields a slight schedule difficulty increase. Surely this is not enough to make the difference in S&P+ of 14 places with a 7-5 record. We would have to be an SEC team named LSU for that to happen.

Although GT will win 14 games... I see the possibility of a 7 to 11 win season.
Ranking in difficulty:

• Clemson, Miami (tough just because of GT's record against Miami), Georgia (Always a tough game)
• Pitt, VT, Tenn, UNC, Duke
• WF, Jax , UCF

Some of that 45th is barely winning against BC, Duke, and UGA, losing to Clemson by 19, Miami by 14, Pittsburgh by 7, and North Carolina by 28. Those four losses skew things, and our big scores were over Mercer, Vandy, and UVa. We didn't rack up as many S&P points as we could have. Barely winning salvaged a good record, but didn't bump our S&P that much.

Team: Georgia Tech
Rec. "9-4"
2ndO Wins (Diff) 7.4 (-1.6)
S&P+ (Percentile) 66.30%
S&P+ (Margin) 5.8
Rk 45
Off. S&P+ 33
Rk 44
Def. S&P+ 28.3
Rk 57
ST S&P+ 1.1
Rk 22

 

[gtwcf]

Agree 100 percent. We actually moved the ball on them. Around 400 yards. Our issue was the back to back fumbles that resulted in TD's. From that point on we were having to play catch up. It's not like they manhandled us.

When they passed, they moved up and down the field. They didn't move the ball when they ran it. They passed when it was a single score game, and ran when they were up by 2 scores. Mark Richt called a conservative game like he usually does, and got more aggressive when he needed to. Game wasn't really that close. Would have been more competitive without the 2 scoop and scores, but when they chose to, they did well.

But they also won't have Kaaya to help them, but Richt is a decent QB coach. To me, the Miami game will likely be dictated by how they do vs FSU. Likely loss if they beat FSU, likely win if they lose...

 

[tech_wreck47]

When they passed, they moved up and down the field. They didn't move the ball when they ran it. They passed when it was a single score game, and ran when they were up by 2 scores. Mark Richt called a conservative game like he usually does, and got more aggressive when he needed to. Game wasn't really that close. Would have been more competitive without the 2 scoop and scores, but when they chose to, they did well.

But they also won't have Kaaya to help them, but Richt is a decent QB coach. To me, the Miami game will likely be dictated by how they do vs FSU. Likely loss if they beat FSU, likely win if they lose...

Are you saying we didn't run the ball well? We averaged almost 5 yards per carry. I'll take that all day long. It was a way closer game than it looked Iike, remember we were only down a TD in the third and then then D gave up a 4 play 75 yard TD. If it wasn't for the 2 fumble 6's we would have probably been in the lead in the third.

 

[slugboy]

Just did some simple math--our average margin of victory (w/o Kentucky and Mercer) was 1.72 points. It's in the positive territory, but not massive. I didn't factor in strength of schedule or anything else. 45th seems reasonable.

 

[gtwcf]

Miami didn't run the ball well. They seemed to try to run the clock out in the second half. Whenever we got close in score, they'd start throwing again to get it not close.

I've said Richt would have won the UGA game last year. He knows to bide his time when he's got a big enough lead....

 

[GTech63]

Our Achilles heel is Pass D. I hope we have a couple of freshmen, or surprise step up vets on D this year. Hopefully that give us a pass rush so we can have slow down and limit opposition points.

 

[deeeznutz]

Agree 100 percent. We actually moved the ball on them. Around 400 yards. Our issue was the back to back fumbles that resulted in TD's. From that point on we were having to play catch up. It's not like they manhandled us.

Fully agree, those back to back defensive TDs were back breaking for us and gave them a boost. Where previously they were getting rolled over by our O and we had them on their heels defensively, they were able to completely change the way they attacked after that and the game was very different from that point on. I still say we win that game without the fumbles.

 

[JacketFromUGA]

Here's his ACC wrap up article after he went through every team.

https://www.sbnation.com/2017/7/28/16046374/acc-football-2017-power-rankings-florida-state-clemson

 

[takethepoints]

I'm not sure where all this hype for Miami is coming from, especially against us. Take a look at the box score for last year:

http://www.ramblinwreck.com/sports/m-footbl/stats/2016-2017/gt100116.html

Yep. 22 first downs. 361 yards total offense. It was probably our best game against a quality opponent in 2016, offensively. We lost because of two drop-and-scoop TDs by their D on successive possessions. Otherwise, we go into the 4th tied 21 up. This year there's every chance that we'll do at least as well or, probably, better. And we'll probably win, even though it's down there.

They weren't all that special last year and they won't be this year either.

 

[takethepoints]

And one other thing: I think the D will get better this year. Why?

I've said it before. We have Ron Rodgers at one LB (Mitchell). All we need to do is find Keith Brooking to go with him and we'll be a lot better on D, especially against the run. I think he reports this fall: Jordan-Swilling. He gives us a turn of speed at LB that we haven't seen since K-Michael Hall. True, he's a frosh and we have other candidates who will get the first shot. One of those might end up winning and keeping the job.

But I bet they won't. And that our LB play will improve considerably with Mitchell able to leave the TEs to BJ-S. We'll see.

 

[Longestday]

Ok... Miami needs to replace a QB and neither current QB is getting any press or hype from their own fans/media. In fact, one was a last minute get when they had a 4 star QB bail (I do keep in mind we had a few diamonds in the rough found this way). They also have to replace the DB and 2 of them are transfers that they hope turn out to be starters.

The front 7 on defense look to be good and the QB will have experience around him. But the question at QB and the all new DBs should put some breaks on the hype.

Its hard not to follow the press band wagon, but I am starting to think of jumping off with this information. Don't get me wrong, it will be a tough day down in Miami. But, I am not ready to crown them coastal winners just yet.

CRS

 

[tech_wreck47]

And one other thing: I think the D will get better this year. Why?

I've said it before. We have Ron Rodgers at one LB (Mitchell). All we need to do is find Keith Brooking to go with him and we'll be a lot better on D, especially against the run. I think he reports this fall: Jordan-Swilling. He gives us a turn of speed at LB that we haven't seen since K-Michael Hall. True, he's a frosh and we have other candidates who will get the first shot. One of those might end up winning and keeping the job.

But I bet they won't. And that our LB play will improve considerably with Mitchell able to leave the TEs to BJ-S. We'll see.

Mitchell has a long way to go if you think he's like Rodgers. And idk if Bruce is faster than other LB's we have recently had, PJ Davis was pretty fast.

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

With a bowl game included I see us at a minimum of 9 wins. It might sound a little high, but my reasoning is good. CPJ is straight forward. You can always tell if he's confident in a year or a little set back. This off season imo has screamed confidence. We know where we are at with the WR, A back, and B back positions. CPJ is not worried about QB, and has praised the OL (something that didn't happen in 2015, actually it's completely opposite). On D we know where we stand with our DB's. The DE position should be improved, LB and DT is still up in the air imo.

UT: W (I honestly don't think they have a chance).
Jax state: W
UCF: W
Pitt: W
UNC: W
Miami: Toss up
WF: W
Clemson: Toss up
Virginia: W
VT: Toss up
Duke: W
UGA: W (I just don't have it in me to claim it as a toss up)


Even though we are starting a new QB I believe we have a leg up on the other teams with new QBs because of our system.

I'll have what you're drinking.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

MJ keepers make him vulnerable.

No worse than a RB carry. A pocket qb is more vulnerable imo.