Bill Connelly's 2017 GT Preview

[JacketFromUGA]

https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...ia-tech-football-2017-preview-schedule-roster

Bill's previews are some of the best around year in and year out.

 

[tkh74]

Thanks for the link! Enjoyed, and don't think I would have seen that on my own.

 

[Coloradojacket]

Great preview but it is like everyone else, they can't figure us out. Then again after my 48 years of following Tech it is like most years

 

[JacketFromUGA]

Great preview but it is like everyone else, they can't figure us out. Then again after my 48 years of following Tech it is like most years

even our board here can't figure us out

I do like this quote though "Tech has been an unprojectable team. The Jackets have done poorly when projected well and vice versa."

 

[jacketup]

His comment about the defense not improving during the 2016 season is incorrect. The yards per attempt was 5.7 for the season but 4.9 for the last three games. He cites to the last 6 games, but the UNC game skewed the results.

 

[awbuzz]

Notice the better record yielded a lower S&P ranking (assume this may be due to strength of schedule).

Assume the net of 12 games doesn't include a bowl game, yet a much better ranking.

"2016 record and S&P+ ranking: 9-4 (45th)

Projected 2017 record and S&P+ ranking: 7-5 (31st)"

 

[Longestday]

Awbuzz, I noticed that too. It is still hard to believe that a 9-4 record is a 45th rank in general. There must have been a lot of high wins and low wins and not much in the middle.

Schedule differences is Tenn versus Vandy (slight increase but Vandy did beat Tenn), Jax Versus Mercer (Increase), UCF versus GSU (tie), and WF versus BC (tie) which yields a slight schedule difficulty increase. Surely this is not enough to make the difference in S&P+ of 14 places with a 7-5 record. We would have to be an SEC team named LSU for that to happen.

Although GT will win 14 games... I see the possibility of a 7 to 11 win season.
Ranking in difficulty:

• Clemson, Miami (tough just because of GT's record against Miami), Georgia (Always a tough game)
• Pitt, VT, Tenn, UNC, Duke
• WF, Jax , UCF

 

[Cam]

I think we'll be alright. JT had an amazing breakout year his first year because of the experience surrounding him. He had a lot of room to grow as the season progressed and could count on his mistakes being covered by the seniors. Whoever ends up being the new QB is in the same situation. All these previews are playing up the new QB "issue" too much (in my opinion), but I think it's because outside our poor pass rush we don't have any real holes on our team. They need to talk about something. The only concern I have is if we haven't gelled as an offense by the opening date, which tends to take awhile to warm up. Worst case scenario is we lose, then just turn our focus to league play. More important to win the Coastal this year.

 

[a5ehren]

Notice the better record yielded a lower S&P ranking (assume this may be due to strength of schedule).

Assume the net of 12 games doesn't include a bowl game, yet a much better ranking.

"2016 record and S&P+ ranking: 9-4 (45th)

Projected 2017 record and S&P+ ranking: 7-5 (31st)"

Part of it is that S&P has the ACC getting better. If you look at the game-by-game projection, something like 9 games fall between 33 and 66 percent win chances for GT.

 

[alagold]

A very thorough and thoughtful analysis.Like the man said--"hard to project" with Tech
but you can expect--
we will beat someone badly that's not ready to play
we will lose to someone oddly because we went flat on DEF and probably offense
key injuries may tell the tale-ie: Mills, Mitchell, Braun,Jordan
if STs collapse ,good efforts still will be losses

 

[tech_wreck47]

With a bowl game included I see us at a minimum of 9 wins. It might sound a little high, but my reasoning is good. CPJ is straight forward. You can always tell if he's confident in a year or a little set back. This off season imo has screamed confidence. We know where we are at with the WR, A back, and B back positions. CPJ is not worried about QB, and has praised the OL (something that didn't happen in 2015, actually it's completely opposite). On D we know where we stand with our DB's. The DE position should be improved, LB and DT is still up in the air imo.

UT: W (I honestly don't think they have a chance).
Jax state: W
UCF: W
Pitt: W
UNC: W
Miami: Toss up
WF: W
Clemson: Toss up
Virginia: W
VT: Toss up
Duke: W
UGA: W (I just don't have it in me to claim it as a toss up)


Even though we are starting a new QB I believe we have a leg up on the other teams with new QBs because of our system.

 

[swampsting]

I can't say that I'm that frustrated with recruiting, per Bill Connelly. Maybe we've missed out on some 4 stars who went elsewhere (5 stars are almost always headed to a football factory, except for perhaps one whose heart was with us but opted elsewhere) but we've gotten pretty good mileage out of the recruits who stick around.

 

[305jacket]

Awbuzz, I noticed that too. It is still hard to believe that a 9-4 record is a 45th rank in general. There must have been a lot of high wins and low wins and not much in the middle.

Schedule differences is Tenn versus Vandy (slight increase but Vandy did beat Tenn), Jax Versus Mercer (Increase), UCF versus GSU (tie), and WF versus BC (tie) which yields a slight schedule difficulty increase. Surely this is not enough to make the difference in S&P+ of 14 places with a 7-5 record. We would have to be an SEC team named LSU for that to happen.

Although GT will win 14 games... I see the possibility of a 7 to 11 win season.
Ranking in difficulty:

• Clemson, Miami (tough just because of GT's record against Miami), Georgia (Always a tough game)
• Pitt, VT, Tenn, UNC, Duke
• WF, Jax , UCF

That is the best way to look at the schedule difference, just have to account for home/away. @UCF is probably harder than home vs GSU. Home vs WF is probably easier than a cross-Atlantic trip vs BC.

I think we need to win 1 of the top 3 games, 4 of the middle 5, and all 4 of the bottom 4 (You forgot to add UVA). That should be a very solid 9-3 season, and ideally gets us to Charlotte.

 

[takethepoints]

I'm with this guy: it's hard to predict what we'll look like this year. In general, however, I think this is 2008, part deux. The reason I say this is that I see Jordan developing sort of like Nesbitt did. They're very similar athletes, though Jordan can throw a trifle better and is perhaps a half-step faster. The real question is whether he'll have a game like Nesbitt's against BC that year. I watched that game and you could see Josh becoming a hard nose right there on the field. If Matthew develops that kind of "retreat, hell" attitude during the season we'll do just fine. I think he already has it myself, but we'll have to see.

 

[swampsting]

With a bowl game included I see us at a minimum of 9 wins. It might sound a little high, but my reasoning is good. CPJ is straight forward. You can always tell if he's confident in a year or a little set back. This off season imo has screamed confidence. We know where we are at with the WR, A back, and B back positions. CPJ is not worried about QB, and has praised the OL (something that didn't happen in 2015, actually it's completely opposite). On D we know where we stand with our DB's. The DE position should be improved, LB and DT is still up in the air imo.

UT: W (I honestly don't think they have a chance).
Jax state: W
UCF: W
Pitt: W
UNC: W
Miami: Toss up
WF: W
Clemson: Toss up
Virginia: W
VT: Toss up
Duke: W
UGA: W (I just don't have it in me to claim it as a toss up)


Even though we are starting a new QB I believe we have a leg up on the other teams with new QBs because of our system.

I think we beat Va. Tech. They have a new QB and No. 60 on defense, who killed us last year, is gone. I hope.
I think we beat UT. I just do.
I am not as optimistic about beating Miami in Miami (I think they're going to be pretty good, even with a new QB) and I am hedging toward losing at Clemson, who I think will be good again but maybe not as good as last year.
I like our chances against UCF, Pitt and especially against UNC. Duke will play us tough but I think we squeak that one. We just can't afford to step on our crank at UVa like we did two years ago.
And I really think the Mutts are overrated. For all their alleged talent on defense, someone take a look at those last two possessions in the last Saturday of November 2016. They looked helpless. I just wonder if it will be Eason or Fromm at QB come November at HGF/BDS. I think Georgia is headed for a bad season. No offensive line, nobody who really scares you at receiver and I think the defense has its holes.
If we can keep Mills healthy, look out on offense.
I didn't get a chance to talk to PJ this summer but just listening to him/reading his quotes, I think he really likes this team and our chances.

 

[Josh H]

Clemson: Toss up

I want some of whatever you're having to think Clemson is a toss up. They return seven players from their Top 10 defense. They have absolutely man-handled us on defense for the past 2 years. Even in 2014 when we won at Bobby Dodd, we had *two* pick six touchdowns when Watson went out.

Best case: Their offense regresses without all that NFL talent and we are able to block their monster DTs. Worst case: We get manhandled. Again.

They are the closest to a sure-loss that we have on the schedule.

 

[ilovetheoption]

I think we'll be alright. JT had an amazing breakout year his first year because of the experience surrounding him. He had a lot of room to grow as the season progressed and could count on his mistakes being covered by the seniors. Whoever ends up being the new QB is in the same situation. All these previews are playing up the new QB "issue" too much (in my opinion), but I think it's because outside our poor pass rush we don't have any real holes on our team. They need to talk about something. The only concern I have is if we haven't gelled as an offense by the opening date, which tends to take awhile to warm up. Worst case scenario is we lose, then just turn our focus to league play. More important to win the Coastal this year.

FWIW, I think one thing that's getting undervalued is that Jordan is more of a "take hits" kind of QB than JT, so playing them early in the season ALSO means that he's fresher than he will be later in the season, and we saw last year against VT that a fresh Jordan can be a punisher in the run game.

 

[wreckrod]

UT: Toss up. If we played them later, I'd say W, but we don't usually start hot.
Jax state: W
UCF: W
Pitt: Toss up. We should win this, but they have our number the last few years.
UNC: W
Miami: Probable loss. They have their entire 2 deep returning defensively. I'll be surprised if we don't get manhandled.
WF: W
Clemson: Probable loss. Venables has owned PJ lately. Clemson has defended us as well or better than anyone we play. I just don't see us moving the ball.
Virginia: W
VT: Toss up. Absolute dog fight of a game. It always is.
Duke: W
UGA: Toss up. Let's just be real.

If we split the toss ups, we go 8-4, which is a pretty "meh" result to me. If one of the 8 is against Ugag, then it's a good year but a bit underwhelming.

I just don't see us doing much better than this or much worse. I love Roof as a recruiter but I HATE him as a coordinator. The best defense to match our offense would be one that attacks attacks attacks.

Defense in general is a wild card. As is QB. Hopefully kicking and punting aren't total let downs.

 

[GTFLETCH]

It just all depends......I see it playing out two ways..
10-2

UT: W
Jax state: W
UCF: W
Pitt: W
UNC: W
Miami: Loss
WF: W
Clemson: Loss
Virginia: W
VT: W
Duke: W
UGA: W (We finally beat Georgia at Home)

However it could go like this also (The 7 win curse strikes back)
7-5

UT: Loss
Jax state: W
UCF: W
Pitt: W
UNC: W
Miami: Loss
WF: W
Clemson: Loss
Virginia: W
VT: Loss
Duke: W
UGA: Loss

 

[Sideways]

Awbuzz, I noticed that too. It is still hard to believe that a 9-4 record is a 45th rank in general. There must have been a lot of high wins and low wins and not much in the middle.

Schedule differences is Tenn versus Vandy (slight increase but Vandy did beat Tenn), Jax Versus Mercer (Increase), UCF versus GSU (tie), and WF versus BC (tie) which yields a slight schedule difficulty increase. Surely this is not enough to make the difference in S&P+ of 14 places with a 7-5 record. We would have to be an SEC team named LSU for that to happen.

Although GT will win 14 games... I see the possibility of a 7 to 11 win season.
Ranking in difficulty:

• Clemson, Miami (tough just because of GT's record against Miami), Georgia (Always a tough game)
• Pitt, VT, Tenn, UNC, Duke
• WF, Jax , UCF

If we could just win one of the top 3, and 4 of the middle 5, and all of the bottom 3 that would be a successful season in my opinion especially if the one at the top is UGA.