BC by the numbers

[Ibeeballin]

2020 Football Cumulative Statistics - Boston College Athletics

The official 2020 Football cumulative statistics for the Boston College Eagles

bceagles.com

Based on the numbers, this is a gm between 2 pretty even teams. Clemson wrecked our team statistics, but BC have some very interesting stats and alludes to what we have to stop to win.

This is not your dads BC team. BC uncharacteristically avg just 2.1. That is mind boggling imo. I’m not sure if that is a product of the defense they have played or we are over inflating their OL. Along those same lines, they have giving up 18 sacks in 5 games which is a substantial amount. 2.1 rush avg plus that amount of sacks correlate to having a QB that will stay in the pocket and hold onto the ball.

On the flip side, BC is converting 3rd downs at almost 48% clip which is really good and been our defense Achilles heel. If my GT math assumption is correct, they are converting a good check of 3rd and mediums and longs. We need Dominick & Clayton to create havoc.

The numbers suggest we should see Gibbs coming out party. BC gives 4.7 yds per rush 177yds/gm. Will be interesting seeing how CDP call this game

 

[slugboy]

Here are some individual numbers. Jurkovec is their QB, and bordering on a good QB rating. (Sims is at a 120 passer rating, even after Clemson)

To be honest, I've watched them a couple of times, and their offensive line stands out more to me than any individual offensive player.

		Pass
Rk	Player	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
1	Phil Jurkovec	127	203	62.6	1526	7.5	7.6	10	4	138.0

[thead] [/thead]

Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 10/20/2020.

Outside of Jurkovec, looks like Bailey, Flowers, and Long are the guys to keep an eye on for their offense:

		Rush				Rece				Scri
Rk	Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Rec	Yds	Avg	TD	Plays	Yds	Avg	TD
1	David Bailey	58	189	3.3	1	7	60	8.6	1	65	249	3.8	2
2	Phil Jurkovec	46	15	0.3	3					46	15	0.3	3
3	Pat Garwo III	23	83	3.6	0	6	30	5.0	0	29	113	3.9	0
4	Travis Levy	21	49	2.3	0	16	94	5.9	0	37	143	3.9	0
5	Zay Flowers	5	-3	-0.6	0	28	462	16.5	4	33	459	13.9	4
6	Hunter Long					35	416	11.9	3	35	416	11.9	3
7	Jaelen Gill					16	182	11.4	1	16	182	11.4	1
8	CJ Lewis					9	161	17.9	1	9	161	17.9	1
9	Jehlani Galloway					6	73	12.2	0	6	73	12.2	0
10	Spencer Witter					3	39	13.0	0	3	39	13.0	0
11	Ethon Williams					1	9	9.0	0	1	9	9.0	0

[thead] [/thead]

Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 10/20/2020.

 

[ibeattetris]

If my GT math assumption is correct, they are converting a good check of 3rd and mediums and longs. We need Dominick & Clayton to create havoc.

Made this to show BC conversion rate based on distance. Note, 11 is all plays 11+

 

[Deleted member 2897]

BCs QB will probably pass for 300+ against us - they haven’t been able to run yet. Their QB can also run. When they’re inside the 10 you have to watch for that.

They got FIVE turnovers from Duke, yet only scored 26. Not having a running game has kept them from finishing drives - they don’t have a single game yet where they’ve had more than 4 drives longer than 50 yards. Most games they only have 2 or 3 drives. If we don’t give them a short field, the bend but don’t break defense can work against a team like BC.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Made this to show BC conversion rate based on distance. Note, 11 is all plays 11+

View attachment 9297

Wow - 3rd and 4 or less they’re like 80% conversion.

 

[LibertyTurns]

I think this is a psycho game. If I was BC I’d be thinking these guys are pissed coming in.

GT by 2 TDs. I really think it would be a TD and a FG but we can’t kick so we convert 4th down instead, get another TD and miraculously are perfect on XPs.

 

[ibeattetris]

Wow - 3rd and 4 or less they’re like 80% conversion.

81.25% currently.

Also, I forgot to note. ESPN does not have the play by play data for the BC/Duke game, so it isn't included. I meant to mention that, but forgot and it's too late to edit.

 

[Ibeeballin]

3rd & 7 at 100% lol

 

[lv20gt]

It really is amazing how similar these teams are in many ways. GT has the significant edge in TD% in the redzone by about 14%. However, BC has the overall scoring % advantage thanks to FGs. Overall both teams have roughly the same expected points per red zone attempt. Overall, GT is worse in giving away the ball but better at taking it away. GT is better moving the ball in ypp by about half a yard and BC is better defensively by about the same margin. GT is averaging about one more 20+ yard play a game compared to BC but BC is better on not giving up big plays (although still bad). Penalties are about even.

One thing that gives me hope is that BC is really bad with giving up sacks. They've given up 18 in 5 games which is 4th worst in the country. Meanwhile we are pretty good at not giving up sacks at 6 total in 5 games. BC has a slight lead in sacks, 2 in 5 games.

All in all I see a fairly even matchup which will likely be come down to which team can avoid the things that prevent scoring opportunities. For us that is TOs and missed FGs. For them it is sacks and having to settle for FGAs in the redzone too often. I'm hoping that we can rely on the running game more this week and limit the pressure that Sims has to deal with. I think overall we get the win based on us having a better running game and being slightly better against the run.

 

[ibeattetris]

3rd & 7 at 100% lol

3 for 3 with two passes and a rush. Certainly not a lot of occurrences, but I thought I must have done something wrong when I saw it at first. I wish ESPN had the Duke game to have more drives and smooth these out a bit.

 

[slugboy]

3rd & 7 at 100% lol

Need to keep them to 3rd and 6 or 3rd and 8.

 

[whitegoldsphinx]

In the limited time I have watched BC this year, I thought their receiver, Flowers, was really good.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

We will get sacks. BC gives them up but is not bad at protections. They just give up so many because they pass so much - their QB averages over 40 pass attempts a game. So probably 50 called pass plays, but pressure lead to some scrambles and sacks where he tucked the ball down and tried to escape. They throw a ton.

But this is not a Trevor Lawrence throw on a dime 30-50 yards kind of QB. This is a game we should be pressing up on the line of scrimmage with a lot of Cover 1 type of coverages. This is exactly the type of team you gamble on defensive chaos with because of all the quick short routes.

 

[g0lftime]

Our coverages on 3rd and long have not been stellar so far this year. We need to step it up a notch.

 

[RyanS12]

We win 31-24. Calling it a lock right now!

 

[ibeattetris]

 

[Pointer]

3rd & 7 at 100% lol

An offense built for 3rd and long lol

 

[HurricaneJacket]

View attachment 9299

Should this be read as higher numbers are bad for our defense?

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

Here are some individual numbers. Jurkovec is their QB, and bordering on a good QB rating. (Sims is at a 120 passer rating, even after Clemson)

To be honest, I've watched them a couple of times, and their offensive line stands out more to me than any individual offensive player.

		Pass
Rk	Player	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
1	Phil Jurkovec	127	203	62.6	1526	7.5	7.6	10	4	138.0

[thead] [/thead]


Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 10/20/2020.

Outside of Jurkovec, looks like Bailey, Flowers, and Long are the guys to keep an eye on for their offense:

		Rush				Rece				Scri
Rk	Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Rec	Yds	Avg	TD	Plays	Yds	Avg	TD
1	David Bailey	58	189	3.3	1	7	60	8.6	1	65	249	3.8	2
2	Phil Jurkovec	46	15	0.3	3					46	15	0.3	3
3	Pat Garwo III	23	83	3.6	0	6	30	5.0	0	29	113	3.9	0
4	Travis Levy	21	49	2.3	0	16	94	5.9	0	37	143	3.9	0
5	Zay Flowers	5	-3	-0.6	0	28	462	16.5	4	33	459	13.9	4
6	Hunter Long					35	416	11.9	3	35	416	11.9	3
7	Jaelen Gill					16	182	11.4	1	16	182	11.4	1
8	CJ Lewis					9	161	17.9	1	9	161	17.9	1
9	Jehlani Galloway					6	73	12.2	0	6	73	12.2	0
10	Spencer Witter					3	39	13.0	0	3	39	13.0	0
11	Ethon Williams					1	9	9.0	0	1	9	9.0	0

[thead] [/thead]


Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 10/20/2020.

Flowers can scoot. Long is a big and versatile tight end that they move around a good bit. He catches a lot of passes for first downs. In the two games I watched their running "attack" was next to nonexistent but Bailey is a short stocky kind of guy that will put his head down and get the tough yards. The only thing that stood out to my untrained eye was that they seem to throw deep more than a lot of teams do and the quarterback is slow but will take a hit to complete the pass. He stands tall in the pocket for sure. Can we get pressure on him consistently will decide this game. IMHO

 

[ibeattetris]

Should this be read as higher numbers are bad for our defense?

Yes.