Any updates on NSD?

[RamblinRed]

If you look at is rationally, everything we are seeing in recruiting says we are recruiting in the middle of the pack in the ACC.
Johnson's tweet is helpful. Another data point is 247sports where the avg player rating for GT's overall ranking (46 - which includes both HS and transfers) is 42nd overall.
The two items to keep in mind are this.
First there are only 65 teams in P5 (plus a handful of others that should likely be included as competitors), so a 32nd or 42nd rating in average stars is just middle of the pack.
More importantly, if your avg is 3.2 or 86.52 and another school is 3.18 or 86.47 or 3.23 or 86.61- is it really reasonable to say you have out recruited them. I just don't see recruiting as being that scientific. I believe it is more realistic to look at it in ranges.

Looking at this year's recruiting. There are 4 ACC schools that clearly are seen as having significantly out recruited the others Clemson, FSU, Miami and UNC. Their overall ranking and avg ratings are much higher than all the others. Then there are 7 schools that I would argue have all basically recruited in the same range and have roughly equivalent talent coming in. Finally there are 3 others that lagged this year (though the avg for those 3 are closer to the middle 7 than the middle 7 are to the top 4).

At the end of the day I don't believe GT is going to win ACC division titles by 'out talenting' its opponents. It is going to win division titles by outperforming them in player development and game day prep/coaching. GT has enough raw talent to be a .500 team, it doesn't have enough talent to be more than that without being better in other areas.

On paper the incoming class (including HS players and transfers) is solid - nothing more, nothing less.
I'm hoping that our young players from the last couple of classes start to play out this year. If GT is to improve that is likely where it comes from. I think GT is likely to see a net negative this season from the portal - the proven production leaving is greater than the proven production coming in (no one coming in has the proven production of Gibbs, Ivey or Adonicas Sanders).

 

[tmhunter52]

Pitchforks and torches at the Edge Center.

Seriously, I hope we do win 8 next year, but Collins and company should not be extended unless he duplicates the feat in 2023.

Is there such a thing as a month-to-month contract for a head coach?

 

[augustabuzz]

If you look at is rationally, everything we are seeing in recruiting says we are recruiting in the middle of the pack in the ACC.
Johnson's tweet is helpful. Another data point is 247sports where the avg player rating for GT's overall ranking (46 - which includes both HS and transfers) is 42nd overall.
The two items to keep in mind are this.
First there are only 65 teams in P5 (plus a handful of others that should likely be included as competitors), so a 32nd or 42nd rating in average stars is just middle of the pack.
More importantly, if your avg is 3.2 or 86.52 and another school is 3.18 or 86.47 or 3.23 or 86.61- is it really reasonable to say you have out recruited them. I just don't see recruiting as being that scientific. I believe it is more realistic to look at it in ranges.

Looking at this year's recruiting. There are 4 ACC schools that clearly are seen as having significantly out recruited the others Clemson, FSU, Miami and UNC. Their overall ranking and avg ratings are much higher than all the others. Then there are 7 schools that I would argue have all basically recruited in the same range and have roughly equivalent talent coming in. Finally there are 3 others that lagged this year (though the avg for those 3 are closer to the middle 7 than the middle 7 are to the top 4).

At the end of the day I don't believe GT is going to win ACC division titles by 'out talenting' its opponents. It is going to win division titles by outperforming them in player development and game day prep/coaching. GT has enough raw talent to be a .500 team, it doesn't have enough talent to be more than that without being better in other areas.

On paper the incoming class (including HS players and transfers) is solid - nothing more, nothing less.
I'm hoping that our young players from the last couple of classes start to play out this year. If GT is to improve that is likely where it comes from. I think GT is likely to see a net negative this season from the portal - the proven production leaving is greater than the proven production coming in (no one coming in has the proven production of Gibbs, Ivey or Adonicas Sanders).

Wasn't this the reason for firing Chan and hiring Paul?

 

[Fatmike91]

Wasn't this the reason for firing Chan and hiring Paul?

No. Chan recruited. He couldn't field a consistent offense. We fired him because he only won 7 games most years...

/

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

No. Chan recruited. He couldn't field a consistent offense. We fired him because he only won 7 games most years...

/

Chan wasn't particularly good at recruiting. His class rankings (Rivals), from 2002-2007, were 62, 50, 56, 62, 57, and 18. We can argue that he was improving based off the 2007 class and the fact that the 2008 class was, IIRC, ranked in the high 30/low 40 range when he was fired, but to say he was a recruiter is misremembering history.

What Chan was particularly good at was finding and developing talent. He recruited more 2*s than CPJ but turned a lot of them into solid players.

 

[augustabuzz]

No. Chan recruited. He couldn't field a consistent offense. We fired him because he only won 7 games most years...

/

His firing prevented Tech from having back to back great recruiting classes. They ran him off when he got his QB. Most of the time, his offense was protecting his defense.

 

[takethepoints]

Looking at this year's recruiting. There are 4 ACC schools that clearly are seen as having significantly out recruited the others Clemson, FSU, Miami and UNC. Their overall ranking and avg ratings are much higher than all the others. Then there are 7 schools that I would argue have all basically recruited in the same range and have roughly equivalent talent coming in. Finally there are 3 others that lagged this year (though the avg for those 3 are closer to the middle 7 than the middle 7 are to the top 4).

At the end of the day I don't believe GT is going to win ACC division titles by 'out talenting' its opponents. It is going to win division titles by outperforming them in player development and game day prep/coaching. GT has enough raw talent to be a .500 team, it doesn't have enough talent to be more than that without being better in other areas.

1) Let's look at one of the three laggers, shall we? That would be Wake Forest. Their national rankings (247) from 2017 to 2020 and their season results:

2017 69 8 - 5
2018 64 7 - 6
2019 59 8 - 5
2020 59 Pass
Consistently last in the ACC, of course. And in 2021 they went 11 - 3, won the Atlantic, and won their bowl game (that shouldn't have been played, btw).

2) Yes, as the data above proves conclusively. Wake has consistently been out recruited by every team in the ACC and has just as consistently licked most of the teams in the conference. Coaching matters. It's what makes recruiting work. Tech ignored this and now has to crawl and claw out of the hole that resulted. I hope we can do that next season, but evidence on the ground that we can with our present staff is mighty thin.

 

[augustabuzz]

1) Let's look at one of the three laggers, shall we? That would be Wake Forest. Their national rankings (247) from 2017 to 2020 and their season results:

2017 69 8 - 5
2018 64 7 - 6
2019 59 8 - 5
2020 59 Pass
Consistently last in the ACC, of course. And in 2021 they went 11 - 3, won the Atlantic, and won their bowl game (that shouldn't have been played, btw).

2) Yes, as the data above proves conclusively. Wake has consistently been out recruited by every team in the ACC and has just as consistently licked most of the teams in the conference. Coaching matters. It's what makes recruiting work. Tech ignored this and now has to crawl and claw out of the hole that resulted. I hope we can do that next season, but evidence on the ground that we can with our present staff is mighty thin.

Who did they play OOC and cross division?

 

[takethepoints]

Who did they play OOC and cross division?

Yes, they do schedule for wins. Something we need to start doing at Tech tout suite. But they did beat all their ACC opponents except UNC, Clemson, and, in the championship game, Pitt. But … they don't play Ugag every year.

 

[iceeater1969]

As u say
It's not how good you are.
Its how fast you get better.

But it dosen't hurt to start with good players

What I thought the plan was to for sure get a staff that can recruit like Miami, unc .

Then if they can't coach up the better players we change staff with better players.
I am pretty pleased w this batch of recruits and transfers. If we had kept the wr recruit Donnor ( went to Nebraska) , we would have had a small (16 ) recruit class that had the highest average rating ever. This class has average like a Miami. 2 4 star dt, 1 4 star qb, 1 4 st ol.


Do this again and treat them right so they arent portal poached and we are a place where a quality coach would take the job.

This year collins needs to coach um up and during the games. I hope someday I can forgive collins for not doing the change sooner. If we have to say good bye, at least we have some good depth for a good x o type head coach.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

Talent on roster is still increasing when you factor in average star rating of new recruits + incoming transfers. Too many of yall are hung up on the transfers coming in having proved nothing at their previous school. Many of these kids transferring were backing up multi year or NFL caliber starters. Just like many of the young kids on our current roster, we have no idea what they're capable of. Last year we saw a D with Yeh/Carpenter/Swilling who collectively have played alot of snaps severely underperform in the secondary. To be frank, I'm really excited to see what the young unproven players can bring to the table going into the 2022 season. It cant be much worse than last year by many statistics. This doom and gloom crap everyone is spewing is just getting OLD at this point. You all must be alot of fun to hang around. I'm choosing optimism over pessimism. Go Jackets!

I am thinking like you are. We will be better just because it’s statistically impossible to be worse. And those players from last year played very poorly. I usually watch games live and then watch a replay later in the week. It’s hard to blame Collins or any coach when those players just get beat by another player game after game. As for the doom and gloom stuff, I don’t see it like you. I don’t think speaking honestly about what we all have witnessed the past 36 months is doom and gloom. If you invited me over to eat and every time for 36 months you burned the hot dogs and hamburgers you can expect what your guests will be talking about at the next one. All this can end if our coach wins some games.

 

[RonJohn]

Hmmmmm. I can remember making the same point about some of Paul's classes. You can guess what the reaction usually was.

Oth, I do think this is a batter way to evaluate where a recruiting class actually stands. If you don't have spots available, you can't recruit lights out. The overall rankings are a combo of stars and numbers.

I am not a fan of the "class rankings" and haven't been for a very long time. Even just the average stars ranking is nowhere near accurate in my opinion. Once you get below the top 30-40 recruits, the ratings are nowhere near precise. Once you get below the top couple of hundred recruits, it is all a crap shoot. Is the top 3* really that much worse than the bottom 4*? One raises the average stars and the other drops it.

The commercial websites make money by getting people excited about the rankings. Those lists are only useful as entertainment.

It is interesting to me that people who argued before that the team ranking number is important no matter how many recruits are counted are now saying that it must be taken into account, and people who argued that the number or recruits should be taken into account are now lambasting the final number disregarding how the number is calculated. Many (if not most) people look for numbers to justify their beliefs, or justification of their beliefs instead of deciding on measurements and using them consistently.

After all is said and done, the team rankings derived for entertainment websites will not win or lose a single game. What is important is that the team fill the spots that are needed with good athletes, develops those athletes, and coaches those athletes. If GT does all of those things, they will win games, no matter what the entertainment websites publish. If GT does not do all of those things, they will not win games, no matter what the entertainment websites publish.

 

[takethepoints]

I couldn't agree more and I've made the same remarks more then once here. It's a common flaw of all evaluation systems; it's easy to spot the stars, it's hard to rate everyone else. This was one of the reasons I always felt the old saws about Paul "not being able to recruit" or "not being interested in recruiting" or being "too lazy ot recruit" were so completely wrong. He knew what he wanted and went after the kids who could get into Tech and stick and who could deliver it. He got some great players that nobody else would touch because of that. And he missed some players he really wanted - Fournette and Chubb come to mind - because they didn't want to be part of a system offense. But that had nothing to do with recruiting rankings. We never had a really great class with Paul, but the offense rolled almost every year. D was the problem, despite uniformly higher recruiting rankings on that side of the ball.

I'm reminded of an anecdote about Shaw. He was on stage getting a standing ovation after one of his plays and someone in the audience shouted, "Rubbish!" Shaw looked down and said, "I quite agree, but (pointing to the audience) who are we among so many?" Saying that recruiting rankings are not even approximately valid doesn't stop people from using them or criticizing coaches who "fail" at recruiting according to them. So you have to choose the best measure among a variety of poor ones. Average stars per class is about the best that can be made out of a dog's breakfast.

But the proof of the pudding is on the field. And there both recruiting and coaching matter.

 

[ramblingman]

In today's transfer world NSD is still important, but it's significance is reduced.