Analytics post mortem

[inknerd]

Post week 1 QBRs (not opponent adjusted) from https://www.espn.com/college-football/qbr/_/group/1

Kyle McCord put up numbers against Ohio

RK	NAME	QBR	PAA	PLAYS	EPA	PASS	RUN	SACK	PEN	RAW
1	Cam Ward MIA	95.7	12.2	40	11.1	8.3	2.1	-0.2	1.0	96.0
2	Tyler Shough LOU	83.3	6.8	25	5.1	5.3	0.0	-0.2	0.0	94.5
3	Kyle McCord SYR	82.1	8.4	45	9.3	10.6	-0.5	-0.7	-0.1	87.4
4	Anthony Colandrea UVA	77.8	8.6	36	6.0	5.9	1.2	-1.2	0.0	92.3
5	DJ Uiagalelei FSU	77.7	4.9	35	6.6	7.2	-0.2	-0.7	0.3	81.1
6	Haynes King GT	76.5	6.9	69	8.7	8.7	0.4	0.0	-0.5	73.9
7	Hank Bachmeier WAKE	64.0	5.7	33	5.1	5.4	0.6	-0.7	-0.2	85.9
8	Preston Stone SMU	60.2	4.4	50	5.7	4.6	1.5	0.0	-0.2	71.4
9	Fernando Mendoza CAL	59.3	3.9	25	4.6	4.8	0.5	-0.6	-0.1	83.3
10	Kyron Drones VT	58.1	0.8	52	3.0	5.4	-1.0	-1.2	-0.3	53.8
11	Eli Holstein PITT	54.6	5.0	47	5.7	6.3	1.1	-1.6	-0.1	75.3
12	Grayson McCall NCSU	48.8	5.4	47	7.6	8.2	-0.1	-0.7	0.2	76.6
13	Cade Klubnik CLEM	40.8	-4.9	37	-2.1	-0.1	-1.3	-0.7	0.0	20.2
14	Max Johnson UNC	37.0	-2.6	28	-1.2	-2.9	2.2	-1.0	0.5	27.6
15	Maalik Murphy DUKE	34.2	2.3	42	3.2	3.1	0.0	0.0	0.1	64.0
16	Ashton Daniels STAN	12.5	-11.5	54	-8.3	-4.2	-2.1	-2.9	0.9	9.8

DJU over King and Klubnik over Murphy... I'll have a double of whatever they're drinking.

 

[GT33]

DJU over King and Klubnik over Murphy... I'll have a double of whatever they're drinking.

They factored in tonight's results. No way the ACC is letting fsu lose 2 in a row. Sucks to be BC because they're gonna get completely hosed all night.

 

[roadkill]

Post week 1 QBRs (not opponent adjusted)** from https://www.espn.com/college-football/qbr/_/group/1

Kyle McCord put up numbers against Ohio

RK	NAME	QBR	PAA	PLAYS	EPA	PASS	RUN	SACK	PEN	RAW
1	Cam Ward MIA	95.7	12.2	40	11.1	8.3	2.1	-0.2	1.0	96.0
2	Tyler Shough LOU	83.3	6.8	25	5.1	5.3	0.0	-0.2	0.0	94.5
3	Kyle McCord SYR	82.1	8.4	45	9.3	10.6	-0.5	-0.7	-0.1	87.4
4	Anthony Colandrea UVA	77.8	8.6	36	6.0	5.9	1.2	-1.2	0.0	92.3
5	DJ Uiagalelei FSU	77.7	4.9	35	6.6	7.2	-0.2	-0.7	0.3	81.1
6	Haynes King GT	76.5	6.9	69	8.7	8.7	0.4	0.0	-0.5	73.9
7	Hank Bachmeier WAKE	64.0	5.7	33	5.1	5.4	0.6	-0.7	-0.2	85.9
8	Preston Stone SMU	60.2	4.4	50	5.7	4.6	1.5	0.0	-0.2	71.4
9	Fernando Mendoza CAL	59.3	3.9	25	4.6	4.8	0.5	-0.6	-0.1	83.3
10	Kyron Drones VT	58.1	0.8	52	3.0	5.4	-1.0	-1.2	-0.3	53.8
11	Eli Holstein PITT	54.6	5.0	47	5.7	6.3	1.1	-1.6	-0.1	75.3
12	Grayson McCall NCSU	48.8	5.4	47	7.6	8.2	-0.1	-0.7	0.2	76.6
13	Cade Klubnik CLEM	40.8	-4.9	37	-2.1	-0.1	-1.3	-0.7	0.0	20.2
14	Max Johnson UNC	37.0	-2.6	28	-1.2	-2.9	2.2	-1.0	0.5	27.6
15	Maalik Murphy DUKE	34.2	2.3	42	3.2	3.1	0.0	0.0	0.1	64.0
16	Ashton Daniels STAN	12.5	-11.5	54	-8.3	-4.2	-2.1	-2.9	0.9	9.8

** (edit) doh! It is opponent adjusted

Kinda hard to get a good bead on Strength of Opponent Defenses only one game in, wouldn't you think? All that to say I'm taking adjusted QBR with a grain of salt.

 

[slugboy]

Kinda hard to get a good bead on Strength of Opponent Defenses only one game in, wouldn't you think? All that to say I'm taking adjusted QBR with a grain of salt.

Yeah, that’s based mostly on last year’s defenses.

Funny thing is, Ohio’s defense was a lot higher ranked than our defense last season.

Here’s the bias-free Colley matrix after week 0–we’re #1!!!

Colley's Bias Free College Football Rankings

(Come back after 5 weeks for that one, too)

 

[roadkill]

Yeah, that’s based mostly on last year’s defenses.

Funny thing is, Ohio’s defense was a lot higher ranked than our defense last season.

Here’s the bias-free Colley matrix after week 0–we’re #1!!!

Colley's Bias Free College Football Rankings

(Come back after 5 weeks for that one, too)

Haha, I recently checked Colley's and saw that. Started to post the link but saw it doesn't have week 1 games factored in.

 

[slugboy]

 

[305jacket]

Tight margin on GAST is worrisome.
However it’s nice that Syracuse is right next to us.

 

[roadkill]

Takeaways:
- UNC should have lost, and would have if the Minn. kicker could make chip-shot field goals.
- Clem played uga closer than the final score indicates. (surprising, but I only saw a little bit of their game).
- VT was lucky to make it to overtime.
- The discrepancy between our net success rate margin and the final score is likely due to our successful goal-line stands.

 

[slugboy]

Takeaways:
- UNC should have lost, and would have if the Minn. kicker could make chip-shot field goals.
- Clem played uga closer than the final score indicates. (surprising, but I only saw a little bit of their game).
- VT was lucky to make it to overtime.
- The discrepancy between our net success rate margin and the final score is likely due to our successful goal-line stands.

Yup.

It’s based on net success rate. Letting the other team repeatedly drive to the 1 yard line usually loses you a lot of games.

I’m both happy we were tough in the red zone and would rather they never saw the red zone.

UGA had a lot of big plays (and we had a few).

Miami was a big beatdown of an SEC team.

 

[slugboy]

Here it is in EPA (how many points you were expected to score, based on what you did). It’s a little better

 

[roadkill]

Here it is in EPA (how many points you were expected to score, based on what you did). It’s a little better

Thanks. This one appears more aligned with game outcomes, although UNC still deserved a loss.

 

[LongforDodd]

DJU over King and Klubnik over Murphy... I'll have a double of whatever they're drinking.

I heard on TV that Cam Ward was a lightly recruited HS Sr. We'll never know but he seems like the kind of kid that PJ would have recruited here.

 

[CuseJacket]

 

[ibeattetris]

This isn't some crazy stat, but I do want to call out how much dislike the new clock changes.
Average total number of drives in GT games
2020: 24.7
2021: 22.2
2022: 22.9
2023: 22.3
2024: 16.3

We are on average having the ball 3 times less per game than the previous 4 years.

 

[Root4GT]

This isn't some crazy stat, but I do want to call out how much dislike the new clock changes.
Average total number of drives in GT games
2020: 24.7
2021: 22.2
2022: 22.9
2023: 22.3
2024: 16.3

We are on average having the ball 3 times less per game than the previous 4 years.

That should work to our advantage

 

[roadkill]

This isn't some crazy stat, but I do want to call out how much dislike the new clock changes.
Average total number of drives in GT games
2020: 24.7
2021: 22.2
2022: 22.9
2023: 22.3
2024: 16.3

We are on average having the ball 3 times less per game than the previous 4 years.

To be fair, I'd throw out the TFG data. Too many 3-and-outs and turnovers to skew the data.
2023 vs. 2024 is interesting. I've heard Key say he wanted to shorten the game and reduce an opponent's opportunities to score as a strategy. Need more game data for 2024 to draw firm conclusions.

 

[TechPhi97]

HK in upper right

You know what's really interesting about this chart? The positions of King and McCord were almost exactly the same as the Offense/Defense chart (GT and Syracuse).

 

[roadkill]

Here it is in EPA (how many points you were expected to score, based on what you did). It’s a little better

Based on the chart, I'd say the answer is no.

 

[roadkill]

nm

 

[slugboy]

Based on these EPA/play charts, we lost because a) we weren't able to rein in Syracuse's passing game (duh), and b) we didn't get enough plays on offense to counter them.
Kind of counterintuitive that our rushing EPA was good.

View attachment 16825View attachment 16830

That’s why Key brought up offensive inconsistency. We gave Syracuse ownership of the game. Our offensive numbers were overall good, but we gave Syracuse control of the first three quarters

Is that for the season, or just last weekend?