Very good analysis! I loved last night because K sold his principals regarding one and dones awhile back for his own personal glory. Im not going to go rehash all they hypocrisy and sanctimonis crap that leaks out of that pit of Satan known as Cameron, but it was glorious to watch. That loss will eat at him forever. If you look at the UNC and Duke programs over the 41 years that K has been at Duke , UNC has matched them in every category but ACC titles, so you could argue K still didn't build the dominant program in the state. It would have been interesting if K had stuck to his principals the way Gary Williams did and compare the results.
Well Williams went out going 8 straight years not advancing past the first weekend of the NCAAT and missing the NCAAT entirely half those years.
I would consider the switch to a one and done model to start in the 2013 year with Jabari Parker who I think they viewed as the first for sure one and done that had come there.
In those 9 years, Duke went to the NCAAT 7/8 times, had one championship, one other final four, two other elite eights. Finished T-2 in conference the year there was no NCAAT.
I know which I consider to be the better result.
Anyways, I don't think K wanted one and dones. I think he wanted top talent, and he wanted top talent long before one and dones became the norm. I think he knew the risks of having so much inexperience and you can point to times it showed, but there wasn't the option to get the top talent and get them to stay 3-4 years like there was before. We found that out first hand. I wouldn't say he sold his principals but rather adapted to the changing landscape. It's not like one and dones are morally wrong. They just come with downsides that a lot of coaches don't like. Kind of how Pastner preaches get old stay old, but he would have taken Jabari Smith instantly if he wanted to come here.
What K did was probably the surest way to guarantee year over year high levels of success, because he could reliably, as much as anyone can at least, replace the pieces year over year which is the downside of one and dones. And while one and dones have drawbacks, there any number of examples of non one and done players leaving early that brought those same downsides. I think ideally he'd go back to having guys like Reddick and Sheldon Williams staying 4 years, but in the landscape that college basketball has become I don't think you can rely on that.