ACC 2019-2020

[slugboy]

Because our incoming class is in a weird position with one incoming freshman, I’ll look at the Box Plus Minus and Points/40 minutes to see where we are vs last year.

Feel free to LOL—I don’t take this as serious analysis.

If you want to skip the rest, the TL;DR skip the stats opinion is
1. we’ll be a lot better outside
2. I’m not sure that we’ve got the front court to stand up to the UNC’s and the Duke’s and the FSU’s unless Wright and Cole get a lot more powerful there. They’re both as big as Banks
3. We either need someone to slash to the basket again or get magically good from outside. Maybe Moore?

Now, here’s me thinking out loud with stats...

We have Asanti Price coming in as a Freshman. Because I don’t have any idea what to do with AAU or High School stats, I’m going to treat him as a 0 points per 40 minutes player and a N/A for BPM. I’m doing the same for Didenko.

(If one of his parents is reading this, no slight intended, I just don’t know what to do with his stats so I’m being lazy)

(I’ll put one citation link at the bottom, but they’re all from the same site)

For the rest, I’ll start with points per 40 minutes.

Here are the points (and starts and minutes) we’re losing off of this year’s team:

Player               G GS  MP  PTS
Brandon Alston      26  5 459 15.9
Abdoulaye Gueye     30 13 533 14.9
Sylvester Ogbonda   10  0  65 11.1
Curtis Haywood II   29 19 630 10.3
Evan Jester          2  0   3  0.0
Avi Schafer          2  0   3  0.0

So, we lost a significant starter in Haywood, Gueye straddled the bench/starter line, and Alston was a first one off the bench player.

When I add up the points (which is silly, but I’m going to anyway), I see 52.2 points per 40 minutes.

Since the team averaged 65.3 points per game, you should be shaking your heads at this kind of analysis and saying “those guys aren’t roughly 80% of our points”. And you’d be right.

Let’s look at the points (per 40 minutes) that stayed:

Player               G GS   MP  PTS
Jose Alvarado       31 30 1060 14.6
Moses Wright        30 21  555 14.5
James Banks III     31 26  931 14.0
Evan Cole           18  3  222 13.3
Kristian Sjolund    21  4  200 12.6
Michael Devoe       32 23 1031 12.0
Khalid Moore        31 10  508 10.2
Shembari Phillips   20  6  221  7.4
Shaheed Medlock      3  0    2  0.0
Malachi Rice         2  0    2  0.0

You see a lot more of our starters back in Alvarado, Banks, Devoe, and Wright, and some serious contributors in Cole and Moore, and a (hopefully) up and coming player in Sjolund.

When I add these points up, I get 98.6 points per 40 minutes. If that’s in Fahrenheit, it’s a healthy body temperature, and in basketball it’s a score I haven’t seen from our boys in “I don’t know when”. At this point, we’ve hit full LOL on this, but I’ll keep going.

So, we’ve got 52.2 pts/40min leaving and 98.6 pts/40min staying. While the math is silly, saying that we’re losing about 1/3rd of our points doesn’t seem silly. It seems about right. What are we swapping it out for?

Jordan Usher. 2 starts. 14 points/40 minutes
Bubba Parham 32 starts. 25.3 points/40 minutes. (Briefly “WOW”)

So, that’s 39.3 points/40 minutes.

Two players adding back most of what we lost from six departing players, and Usher was really not used much by USC.

I kind of see Usher taking over where Curt left, and Parham taking Alston’s spot (but as a starter?). Then the questions come out:
1. Who takes over the Gueye second big man role? Does anyone?
2. What happens with Sjolund and Devoe? (Devoe was already getting more starts than Haywood).
3. What kinds of offenses and defenses are we running? This roster looks a lot different, and can play more 3 point/outside play. Do we put a Alvarado + Parham + Devoe + Sjolund + Usher combo on the floor?
4. Where does the improvement come from?

I’ll start with the last. I can’t say how much the freshmen improved, but I can look at other players.

Parham improved from 19.6 to 25.3 points moving from a Freshman to being a Sophomore. Usher added about a point per 40 minutes.

Alvarado improved about 7/10ths of a point. His BPM didn’t change at all.

Moses Wright improved 5.7 points/40 minutes year over year, and by 3.2 points of BPM.

Evan Cole improved 4 points per 40 minutes and went from -0.4 BPM to 0.2 BPM. For a struggling year, he showed some improvement.

So, there’s maybe a glimmer of hope that Reveno does some work with some of the Juniors and maybe Khalid Moore to fill the gap from Gueye graduating. I think at least one of them will bulk up and step up their game this year. Possibly more than one.

The others I’m thinking might jump up are Sjolund and Devoe. Sjolund’s Offensive Plus/Minus was -1.8, and overall BPM was -2.8. If he can move that to about 0, it’s a big improvement. Devoe is already a 2.7 BPM, and I can see him pick that up.

The other points blend together. If Moore/Wright/Cole show big improvements under Reveno, then I’d see more traditional/less “positionless” basketball (unless they get really agile).

If the big improvements come from Devoe/Sjolund and Parham and Usher are great from outside, then maybe we are more positionless and more 4 out/1 in or more.

I’m leaning more towards outside play, because I think Parham will draw so much defense that Devoe and Usher and other players will be more open than they have in the past.

I’d really like that figured out by the first game. Last year, we got to conference play, and we hadn’t worked out our offensive identity yet (or barely had).

We’ve also got to figure out how we’ll dominate the Pitt/BC/Clemson contingent of the ACC, be even or better against the FSU/Miami middle, and steal a game or two from the top tier teams. Getting around 500 in conference play is the thing that should get us to the NCAAs, or at least postseason.


Stats Provided by CBB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 5/30/2019.




Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[YlJacket]

LOL - well you said I could go there
Not sure how many players we get to play 40 min. When they play 5 min it is hard to extrapolate to 40.
We do need someone or some group of players to really up their scoring - most likely DeVoe. Parham and Usher are the wild cards.
We have enough 4 star talent and experienced 3 star talent to be a bubble team. The underlying point you are making that guys have to step up will determine whether we get there or not.

 

[73CAV]

I am not going to post my own right now and try to outdo Red, but we actually agree in many areas. I will lend a few thoughts.

The ACC has a clear bottom 5 of : VT, BC, Clemson, Wake, Pitt right now. The only one of those I can see spacing themselves from the rest is Pitt who rcvd some bad news yesterday that the other Champagnie brother will not be attending Pitt and has committed to St. Johns.

It is still early but I have that next tier being: Syracuse, GT, Miami, FSU.

Then NC State, Virginia Notre Dame.- I still like Virginia. Especially now that Diakite is back. I thought that Hauser was goign to be eligible but was incorrect on that. Nevertheless, I think limiting posessions and grinding out wins will still lead to a good season for them. If you look back on the London Perrantes year (Kyle Guys freshman season) they were able to win while not being very good offensively. If there is one guy that can scheme his way to wins its Bennett.

Top Tier: Louisville, UNC, Duke. In that order. I like Louisville to win the ACC next year right now. 6 of their top 7 scorers returning with a top 5 recruiting class. Size, shooting, talent, leadership, coaching, star power rebounding, rim protection, versatility, they have it all. Much of the reason that I chose UNC last year.

Couple breakout guys from me: Jalen Carey (Syracuse), Hunter Tyson(Clemson), Dane Goodwin (ND), Devin Vassell (FSU) and our own Moses Wright. Tyson is the biggest stretch here but I really like his size and he can really stroke it. Simms should move into that mid range 4 IMHO, hes too inefficient from deep, Tyson should slide into that swingman role.

Freshman to watch aside from the obvious: Isaiah Wong (Miami), Kareem Coulibaly (Pitt), Casey Morsell (UVA): Wong and his freshman mate Harlond Beverly are really nice building blocks for Miamis future back court. Both are around 6'3-6'4. Really nice players. Coulibaly is a big burly kid who is taking over a four spot that Malik Ellison was asked to play last year for a lot of minutes but that just wasnt his game. At the very least Kareem is an upgrade over Chukwuku. Morsell could be the difference maker for UVA right now. If he can make shots that is going to alleviate some of the pressure on a guys like Kody Stattman or Braxton Key who arent great shooters. Someone Reds list left out who also left UVA was Marco Anthony, who a lot of Virginia fans thought had a bright future. If Virginia is going to be a factor this year they need something out of Morsell.

Just one small correction for the Virginia comments: Kody Stattmann may be the best returning shooter on the squad. His range is exceptional. However, he is still just 18 and needs some physical maturity to play Bennett's defense. He will be one of the more interesting question marks entering the fall. Also, RS frosh Francisco Caffaro figures to make an impact. He's 7', spent his last year of high school at the Australian NBA Academy, and was the starter for the Argentine U19 AAU team at last summer's games in Toronto. He was 1st team All Tournament, IIRC It remains to be seen if he can be as physical as Jack Salt, but the potential is there, and he has a much better touch around the basket.

 

[Peacone36]

Just one small correction for the Virginia comments: Kody Stattmann may be the best returning shooter on the squad. His range is exceptional. However, he is still just 18 and needs some physical maturity to play Bennett's defense. He will be one of the more interesting question marks entering the fall. Also, RS frosh Francisco Caffaro figures to make an impact. He's 7', spent his last year of high school at the Australian NBA Academy, and was the starter for the Argentine U19 AAU team at last summer's games in Toronto. He was 1st team All Tournament, IIRC It remains to be seen if he can be as physical as Jack Salt, but the potential is there, and he has a much better touch around the basket.

Yeah I haven’t seen him shoot a ton, I know he had that rep but i didn’t see him hit many during the few minutes he played. He’s an interesting player, not sure if his impact.

 

[73CAV]

Yeah I haven’t seen him shoot a ton, I know he had that rep but i didn’t see him hit many during the few minutes he played. He’s an interesting player, not sure if his impact.

Yep. As the season progressed, the only PT he got was in the sloppy minutes of endgame situations. Not much on which to judge. I am unsure of his impact, too. He has good size (6'7"), decent quicks, but he was under 190 lbs. and struggled defensively.

 

[AUFC]

Worst case we need to be a bubble team this year, if all players get their waivers to play (which is likely) and we stay healthy. Pastner would have to do a pretty bad job this year for us to not be a tourney team( which is not likely).

The proven talent on this team looks really similar to teams we've had the past 8 or so years. I'm not sold on Moses and Sjolund yet and I'm definitely not sold on Moore. We haven't seen Usher and Parham in Yellow Jacket jerseys yet so I'm not ready to commit to them, but of course if they can both be double digit scorers (if Parham even gets to play this year, that is), I do think we have a decent chance of sneaking into the First 4. Moses was obviously great those last few weeks of the season -- what changed in his game overnight? I thought he looked like he had no business in an ACC game for a better part of the year last year.

Just been seeing a lot of folks acting like we're a lock in this forum the past couple months.

 

[Connell62]

Until we know what is going on with Parham it is really hard to slot us.
I also hope that DeVoe becomes the breakout player for us. We desperately need a lead dog scorer.

Maybe I’m wrong, but Devoe never really projected as a lead dog scorer. He’s more of a floor general/QB type that can shoot/score. Agree that we do need him to keep developing but I think lead dog scorer will be Jose and/or Usher

 

[RamblinCharger]

Because our incoming class is in a weird position with one incoming freshman, I’ll look at the Box Plus Minus and Points/40 minutes to see where we are vs last year.

Feel free to LOL—I don’t take this as serious analysis.

If you want to skip the rest, the TL;DR skip the stats opinion is
1. we’ll be a lot better outside
2. I’m not sure that we’ve got the front court to stand up to the UNC’s and the Duke’s and the FSU’s unless Wright and Cole get a lot more powerful there. They’re both as big as Banks
3. We either need someone to slash to the basket again or get magically good from outside. Maybe Moore?

Now, here’s me thinking out loud with stats...

We have Asanti Price coming in as a Freshman. Because I don’t have any idea what to do with AAU or High School stats, I’m going to treat him as a 0 points per 40 minutes player and a N/A for BPM. I’m doing the same for Didenko.

(If one of his parents is reading this, no slight intended, I just don’t know what to do with his stats so I’m being lazy)

(I’ll put one citation link at the bottom, but they’re all from the same site)

For the rest, I’ll start with points per 40 minutes.

Here are the points (and starts and minutes) we’re losing off of this year’s team:

Player               G GS  MP  PTS
Brandon Alston      26  5 459 15.9
Abdoulaye Gueye     30 13 533 14.9
Sylvester Ogbonda   10  0  65 11.1
Curtis Haywood II   29 19 630 10.3
Evan Jester          2  0   3  0.0
Avi Schafer          2  0   3  0.0

So, we lost a significant starter in Haywood, Gueye straddled the bench/starter line, and Alston was a first one off the bench player.

When I add up the points (which is silly, but I’m going to anyway), I see 52.2 points per 40 minutes.

Since the team averaged 65.3 points per game, you should be shaking your heads at this kind of analysis and saying “those guys aren’t roughly 80% of our points”. And you’d be right.

Let’s look at the points (per 40 minutes) that stayed:

Player               G GS   MP  PTS
Jose Alvarado       31 30 1060 14.6
Moses Wright        30 21  555 14.5
James Banks III     31 26  931 14.0
Evan Cole           18  3  222 13.3
Kristian Sjolund    21  4  200 12.6
Michael Devoe       32 23 1031 12.0
Khalid Moore        31 10  508 10.2
Shembari Phillips   20  6  221  7.4
Shaheed Medlock      3  0    2  0.0
Malachi Rice         2  0    2  0.0

You see a lot more of our starters back in Alvarado, Banks, Devoe, and Wright, and some serious contributors in Cole and Moore, and a (hopefully) up and coming player in Sjolund.

When I add these points up, I get 98.6 points per 40 minutes. If that’s in Fahrenheit, it’s a healthy body temperature, and in basketball it’s a score I haven’t seen from our boys in “I don’t know when”. At this point, we’ve hit full LOL on this, but I’ll keep going.

So, we’ve got 52.2 pts/40min leaving and 98.6 pts/40min staying. While the math is silly, saying that we’re losing about 1/3rd of our points doesn’t seem silly. It seems about right. What are we swapping it out for?

Jordan Usher. 2 starts. 14 points/40 minutes
Bubba Parham 32 starts. 25.3 points/40 minutes. (Briefly “WOW”)

So, that’s 39.3 points/40 minutes.

Two players adding back most of what we lost from six departing players, and Usher was really not used much by USC.

I kind of see Usher taking over where Curt left, and Parham taking Alston’s spot (but as a starter?). Then the questions come out:
1. Who takes over the Gueye second big man role? Does anyone?
2. What happens with Sjolund and Devoe? (Devoe was already getting more starts than Haywood).
3. What kinds of offenses and defenses are we running? This roster looks a lot different, and can play more 3 point/outside play. Do we put a Alvarado + Parham + Devoe + Sjolund + Usher combo on the floor?
4. Where does the improvement come from?

I’ll start with the last. I can’t say how much the freshmen improved, but I can look at other players.

Parham improved from 19.6 to 25.3 points moving from a Freshman to being a Sophomore. Usher added about a point per 40 minutes.

Alvarado improved about 7/10ths of a point. His BPM didn’t change at all.

Moses Wright improved 5.7 points/40 minutes year over year, and by 3.2 points of BPM.

Evan Cole improved 4 points per 40 minutes and went from -0.4 BPM to 0.2 BPM. For a struggling year, he showed some improvement.

So, there’s maybe a glimmer of hope that Reveno does some work with some of the Juniors and maybe Khalid Moore to fill the gap from Gueye graduating. I think at least one of them will bulk up and step up their game this year. Possibly more than one.

The others I’m thinking might jump up are Sjolund and Devoe. Sjolund’s Offensive Plus/Minus was -1.8, and overall BPM was -2.8. If he can move that to about 0, it’s a big improvement. Devoe is already a 2.7 BPM, and I can see him pick that up.

The other points blend together. If Moore/Wright/Cole show big improvements under Reveno, then I’d see more traditional/less “positionless” basketball (unless they get really agile).

If the big improvements come from Devoe/Sjolund and Parham and Usher are great from outside, then maybe we are more positionless and more 4 out/1 in or more.

I’m leaning more towards outside play, because I think Parham will draw so much defense that Devoe and Usher and other players will be more open than they have in the past.

I’d really like that figured out by the first game. Last year, we got to conference play, and we hadn’t worked out our offensive identity yet (or barely had).

We’ve also got to figure out how we’ll dominate the Pitt/BC/Clemson contingent of the ACC, be even or better against the FSU/Miami middle, and steal a game or two from the top tier teams. Getting around 500 in conference play is the thing that should get us to the NCAAs, or at least postseason.


Stats Provided by CBB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 5/30/2019.




Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Although this seemed a little ridiculous for statistical purposes (ie using 40 minutes isn’t realistic) I really enjoyed reading it haha. You mentioned improvement, but with a get old stay old mentality, you have to see significant improvement from your players. I hope we see significant improvement from all of our returning guys. Devoe, Moore, and Moses are the guys I think could take a big jump.

 

[mstranahan]

Just been seeing a lot of folks acting like we're a lock in this forum the past couple months.

Once Luther Vandross sings and the transfers decide where they’re going, we hit a lull in the summer. Not much to talk about except speculating on the coming season. Most years, people fall into two camps, “we should finish pretty high in conference and make the tourney” or “we suck and should fire the coach”.

Without seeing the team on the court together, it’s really difficult to know what we will see, who will struggle, who will emerge, how the come together, etc. Lots of us want to channel our inner Vitale and project success or failure 5 months before the start of practice.

I don’t agree with either extreme in terms of our outlook but enjoy seeing people care about the program enough to weigh in

 

[Peacone36]

The last guy I am trying to channel is Vitale but I see why you’d name him

 

[RamblinRed]

One update.
I forgot to include Charlotte transfer Adrien White to newcomers for Wake. The 6'3 guard was Charlotte's second leading scorer as a Jr at 15 ppg, 4.8 rpg and shot 32.3% from three.
He sat out at Wake last year and has 1 yr to play.

 

[RamblinRed]

One update.
I forgot to include Charlotte transfer Adrien White to newcomers for Wake. The 6'3 guard was Charlotte's second leading scorer as a Jr at 15 ppg, 4.8 rpg and shot 32.3% from three.
He sat out at Wake last year and has 1 yr to play.

Sort of ironic that alot of the guards at Charlotte under Price left after he was fired and they all seem to be finding their way to the ACC. White at Wake, Ryan Murphy to Pitt after a stop at New Mexico JC, Curran Scott at Clemson by way of Tulsa.

 

[YlJacket]

Maybe I’m wrong, but Devoe never really projected as a lead dog scorer. He’s more of a floor general/QB type that can shoot/score. Agree that we do need him to keep developing but I think lead dog scorer will be Jose and/or Usher

FWIW I see a lot more floor general type play in Jose and my recollection is he came with an old school PG rep coming in. DeVoe has a really smooth handle but came in with the rep of a 3pt shooter in HS with the opportunities coming from playing off Barrett. We saw flashes of that shooting but he really didn't show the explosion or movement to get that shot routinely or take advantage of teams overplaying him to take away the 3. I am hoping it was residual effects of the foot plus needing a year to get strong/explosive enough to be able to get to the rim when teams overplay him.

He avgd 10 PPG in conference last season. Jose avgd 12. I think DeVoe needs to get to 15/16 PPG in conference and not have any of the 4 point games he had last year. That means he has to get to 3 three point goals per game from 3 and add another basket off the drive - and become more consistent. That isn't a 20 PPG guy so maybe lead dog scorer might be an overstatement but we have to have someone we know is good for 15 or so every game. Not necessarily a Kye Bowman but a Kyle Guy type.

I expect we will see both DeVoe and Jose as the lead guard next year and if you really want to solidify a bubble status likely they both need to be in the 15 PPG range. I just think DeVoe's shooting gives him a better chance to be the lead scorer and make other teams have to game plan their defense for him. Usher to me is a wild card but my perception is more an energy guy / midrange guy than a true scorer. But I fully admit I haven't watched that much of him.

 

[GT_EE78]

I think you're right. I expect DeVoe to breakout and be the teams leading scorer. 15 ppg is enough if 4 or 5 others chip in around 10+ ppg.
I don't get the excitement for bubbleness. for CJP's longevity i thinks it's NCAAT or bust. I mean even if you win the "losers bracket" what are gonna do? have everyone come out chanting "We're number 69, We're 69!!"

 

[RamblinRed]

A couple of thoughts. (all groupings in alphabetical order)
it looks pretty clear to me that the likely top 3 in some order will be Duke, L'ville and UNC.

The 4 and 5 spots imo are most likely to be filled out by a combination of FSU, NCST and UVA,

Then you have a group of GT, Miami, ND, Syracuse

Finally you have what looks like a bottom five of BC, Clemson, Pitt, VT, and Wake

I try to look at teams both in terms of what they are losing and what they are gaining as well as where they are starting from (ie. how they finished last season).

I expect both Miami and ND to move up into the middle tier. But both have bigger jumps to get there than GT, so i'm not convinced either/both will finish ahead of GT, especially ND.
ND was at the bottom of the conference last year (3-15)- loses its 4th best player and gains 2 players who come back from injury who should both be starters. Pflueger could really help their offense as he is a really good passer. I think they could finish behind GT (assuming Parham gets a waiver) because they have farther to climb. I will say i think you could pull those middle 4 out of a jar in any order and it will be realistic.

Pitt is one I am not quite as high on now than I was a month ago. I think losing JWF is a bigger deal than people realize. 2nd leading scorer, 2nd leading rebounder and only consistent 3-pt threat. Without him it may be harder for Johnson and McGowens to get into the lane as teams are likely to sag off them until at least one of them proves to be an improved 3-pt shooter. Murphy is supposed to help with that, but he only played 13 games last season before injury and shot 28% from 3 in those games (after shooting 40% from three as a FR at Charlotte - he also missed some games at Charlotte with an injury). Chukwuka likely being out for the season hurts as well as he avg almost as many minutes last season as Terrell Brown and I don't think Brown is ready to play 30 mpg in the ACC. With Capel striking out on his big man targets this year that likely means having to play Coulibaly out of position at C and Toney out of position at PF a fair bit of the time. They could finish as high as 11th, but it wouldn't surprise me if they struggle and stay closer to 13th.

With Johnson coming back i'm pretty high on NCST. Like GT they return alot of experience. They are still a little weak up front but given they finished 8th last season moving up to 6th or 5th wouldn't shock me. If Bates can play up to his ranking a little bit it would help. Johnson sort of stirs the drink for that team.
Interestingly, some of the NCST fans are a little concerned that Keatts has had issues with signing HS kids and keeping them at NCST. Most of his roster players have come through transfers.
His HS signess include
2017 Lavar Batts - transferred out after 1 season
2017 Braxton Beverly - technically he is a transfer as he had enrolled at Ohio St and then transferred when Matta resigned and was able to get a waiver.
2018 Jericole Hellems - rising So, backup as a FR.
2018 Manny Bates - redshirted as a Fr
2018 Ian Steere - left without ever playing a game.
2019 Dereon Seaborn - reportedly not qualified yet
2019 Jalen Lecque - chose to skip school and go to the NBA.
if Seaborn does get qualified and you count Beverly as a HS player rather than a transfer that is only 4 players from HS recruiting on the roster. In a worst case scenario it could be 2 - if Seaborn fails to qualify and you want to count Beverly as a transfer.

 

[RamblinRed]

I think you're right. I expect DeVoe to breakout and be the teams leading scorer. 15 ppg is enough if 4 or 5 others chip in around 10+ ppg.
I don't get the excitement for bubbleness. for CJP's longevity i thinks it's NCAAT or bust. I mean even if you win the "losers bracket" what are gonna do? have everyone come out chanting "We're number 69, We're 69!!"

Bubbleness shows movement in the right direction and suggests the model may work. It's not like people are going to be throwing parades - it just means things are getting better.

 

[YlJacket]

I think you're right. I expect DeVoe to breakout and be the teams leading scorer. 15 ppg is enough if 4 or 5 others chip in around 10+ ppg.
I don't get the excitement for bubbleness. for CJP's longevity i thinks it's NCAAT or bust. I mean even if you win the "losers bracket" what are gonna do? have everyone come out chanting "We're number 69, We're 69!!"

69 sounds pretty good to me - but I am a much broader thinker than just basketball

 

[Peacone36]

A couple of thoughts. (all groupings in alphabetical order)
it looks pretty clear to me that the likely top 3 in some order will be Duke, L'ville and UNC.

The 4 and 5 spots imo are most likely to be filled out by a combination of FSU, NCST and UVA,

Then you have a group of GT, Miami, ND, Syracuse

Finally you have what looks like a bottom five of BC, Clemson, Pitt, VT, and Wake

I try to look at teams both in terms of what they are losing and what they are gaining as well as where they are starting from (ie. how they finished last season).

I expect both Miami and ND to move up into the middle tier. But both have bigger jumps to get there than GT, so i'm not convinced either/both will finish ahead of GT, especially ND.
ND was at the bottom of the conference last year (3-15)- loses its 4th best player and gains 2 players who come back from injury who should both be starters. Pflueger could really help their offense as he is a really good passer. I think they could finish behind GT (assuming Parham gets a waiver) because they have farther to climb. I will say i think you could pull those middle 4 out of a jar in any order and it will be realistic.

Pitt is one I am not quite as high on now than I was a month ago. I think losing JWF is a bigger deal than people realize. 2nd leading scorer, 2nd leading rebounder and only consistent 3-pt threat. Without him it may be harder for Johnson and McGowens to get into the lane as teams are likely to sag off them until at least one of them proves to be an improved 3-pt shooter. Murphy is supposed to help with that, but he only played 13 games last season before injury and shot 28% from 3 in those games (after shooting 40% from three as a FR at Charlotte - he also missed some games at Charlotte with an injury). Chukwuka likely being out for the season hurts as well as he avg almost as many minutes last season as Terrell Brown and I don't think Brown is ready to play 30 mpg in the ACC. With Capel striking out on his big man targets this year that likely means having to play Coulibaly out of position at C and Toney out of position at PF a fair bit of the time. They could finish as high as 11th, but it wouldn't surprise me if they struggle and stay closer to 13th.

With Johnson coming back i'm pretty high on NCST. Like GT they return alot of experience. They are still a little weak up front but given they finished 8th last season moving up to 6th or 5th wouldn't shock me. If Bates can play up to his ranking a little bit it would help. Johnson sort of stirs the drink for that team.
Interestingly, some of the NCST fans are a little concerned that Keatts has had issues with signing HS kids and keeping them at NCST. Most of his roster players have come through transfers.
His HS signess include
2017 Lavar Batts - transferred out after 1 season
2017 Braxton Beverly - technically he is a transfer as he had enrolled at Ohio St and then transferred when Matta resigned and was able to get a waiver.
2018 Jericole Hellems - rising So, backup as a FR.
2018 Manny Bates - redshirted as a Fr
2018 Ian Steere - left without ever playing a game.
2019 Dereon Seaborn - reportedly not qualified yet
2019 Jalen Lecque - chose to skip school and go to the NBA.
if Seaborn does get qualified and you count Beverly as a HS player rather than a transfer that is only 4 players from HS recruiting on the roster. In a worst case scenario it could be 2 - if Seaborn fails to qualify and you want to count Beverly as a transfer.

Dead on correct about JWF. He was huge last year.

 

[RamblinRed]

"I’d really like that figured out by the first game. Last year, we got to conference play, and we hadn’t worked out our offensive identity yet (or barely had). "

The above is an important statement by Slugboy. It's something I'm hoping our summer trip will help with. since basically everyone we would expect to be a significant contributor will be on the trip we should be able to get some of the rotations and the like figured out earlier.

Also, given the expansion to 20 conference games and having early conference games it is going to be more important to get your rotations and style of play figured out more quickly in future years.

It is sort of unlucky that we open the season on the road against an ACC opponent that we will be fighting for a spot with and they also return alot of their team.

I also agree we really need to find a way to beat up on those bottom 5 teams. We play 7 games against my likely bottom 5 - home and away against Pitt, and Clemson. Home against VT, away against Wake and BC. it sure would be nice to win like 6 of those. That would mean winning at least 2 of the 3 road games and not messing up any of the 3 home game.

Finally, given that we likely open the season at NCST and then home against UGA (2 teams that will be expected to make the tourney next year) - having both Usher and Parham available from game 1 would be a huge help. Getting UGA early may help as they will have alot of FR they have to get into the rotation and used to playing college basketball.

 

[GT_EE78]

Bubbleness shows movement in the right direction and suggests the model may work. It's not like people are going to be throwing parades - it just means things are getting better.

Given our recent history ,incremental improvement is probably the best we can realistically expect(can always hope for more and just live with the ensueing frustrations). But still, i'd like to have heard the Louiville fan reactions if Coach Mack had said " We can get to the tourney in my fifth year and i think i wanna make it in year 4"