ACC 2019-2020

RamblinRed

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A look ahead for all ACC teams for next season. I’ll update this as waiver decisions and any late recruiting decisions are made. All data is based on ACC Games only and the rankings are from my efficiency/game metrics that I track every year.

Boston College (5-13, T11)
Key losses
JR G Bowman - 18.0 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 4.4 apg, 1.3 spg, 40% Three, #7
SR SG Chatman – 13.4 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 2.0 apg, 36.3% Three, #45

Key Returnees
Jr F Popovic – 14.8 ppg, 6.9 rpg, #28
So F Mitchell – 4.1 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 1.6 bpg, #46
Fr G Tabbs – 11.3 ppg, 2.7 rpg – played 3 games before season ending injury, #56
Jr G Hamilton – 6.2 ppg, 2.4 rpg, #84
Fr F Hamilton – 5.3 ppg, 3.1 rpg, #95

Key Newcomers
PF Felder 3*
SG Heath 3*
SG Rishwain 3*
SF Williams 3*

Boston College has decided to retain Jim Christian for another season. With Kyle Bowman declaring for the NBA it is hard to picture this team being anything but a bottom 2-3 team in the conference. While they only lost 2 players – it happens to be their starting backcourt and those 2 accounted for 46% of their points, 51% of their assists and 70% of their made threes. That is just a lot of production to replace. They get Wynston Tabbs back from injury, which will help the backcourt, and have a good, by BC standards, recruiting class, but there really isn’t enough here to win with any consistency. Hard to imagine where enough scoring is going to come from outside of Popovic. Hopefully rising SO Hamilton can become more consistent and live up to his 4* billing. They are hoping that incoming freshmen F Calver Felder (3*, #222) and G Jay Heath (3*, #223) can provide some immediate help. This team finished T11 last season and that is the ceiling for them. They could easily slip back to 13th or 14th.


Clemson (9-9, T8)
Key Losses
SR SG Reed - 19.1 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 2.7 apg, 40% Three, #3
SR C Thomas - 12.9 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 2.6 bpg, #20
SR PG Mitchell - 10.1 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 2.9 apg, 34% Three, #48
SR PF Skara - 5.9 ppg, 3.6 rpg, #75

Key Returnees
So F Simms – 6.9 ppg, 4.6 rpg, #71
So G Trapp – 5.2 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 34% Three, #88

Key Newcomers
G Hunter – 4*, Top 125
G Dawes – 4*, Top 125
Transfer – F/C Baehre (from UNC-Asheville, 7.4 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 37% Career Three)
Grad Transfer – G Scott (from Tulsa, 8.9 ppg, 39.4% Three)
Transfer – F Moore (from Texas Tech)
Transfer – G Honor (from Fordham, 15.3 ppg, 3.0 apg, 33% Three)

Clemson is looking at a major rebuild next season. Replacing 2 Top 20 ACC players for any school is not easy, for Clemson it will be almost impossible, especially when they lose two other starters and their primary big man backup. Its top returning player will be starting CF Simms who avg 6.9 ppg. It also got bad news last week as transfer big Johnathan Baehre tore his ACL. He was expected to be at least a rotation player if not a starter. Clemson has a solid recruiting class led by Top 125 recruits Hunter and Dawes but simply doesn’t have the talent or experience to replace what is leaving and it lacks any bigs with experience. Inside play in particular could be very difficult. Clemson hit the transfer market hard this offseason to help rebuild. Grad transfer Scott is a likely starter at SG. He started his career with Mark Price at Charlotte and then transferred to Tulsa. He avg 9 ppg and shot almost 40% from three last season. They are hoping Khavon Moore will be able to get a waiver to play this season as he moves back closer to home. He’s a former Top 50 recruit but broke his leg his Sr year of HS and has only played 2 min since then. They also brought in Nick Honor from Fordham who had a big Fr year - RoY. They will try to get a waiver for him as well, but that is less likely than Moore. Honor is a scoring PG who avg 15.3 ppg and 3.0 assts and shot 33% from three. They are going to have to rely on FR and SO like Hunter, Jemison and Newman who barely saw the floor last year to play major roles. Clemson finished T8 last season and made the NIT. It should be in the bottom tier this season and just being .500 would be a good goal. Anywhere from 13th to 11th would be the likely range.


Duke (14-4, 3)
Key losses
FR F Williamson 22.6 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 2.2 apg, 1.8 bpg, 2.1 spg, #1
FR F Barrett 23.6 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 4.4 apg, #2
FR F Reddish 14.7 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.4 apg, 1.5 spg, #30
Jr C Bolden – 6.4 ppg, 5.2 rpg, #57

Key Returnees
Fr PG Jones – 8.4 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 4.9 apg, 3.5:1 A:TO, #22
Jr F DeLaurier – 2.7 pp, 2.6 rpg, #97
So Wing O’Connell – 4.8 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 40% three, #100
Jr F White – 3.4 ppg, 4.4 rpg, #102

Key Newcomers
C Carey – 5*, Top 5
F Hurt – 5*, Top 10
SF Moore – 5*, Top 25
SG Stanley – 4*, Top 35

After losing its three primary scorers Duke had a big spring to reload. Williamson and Barrett had 2 of the highest eff/game metrics I have tracked in the ACC. First, Tre Jones staying for his soph year really helps. They also added stretch 4 Hurt and SG Stanley to their fall hall to have the #2 recruiting class. Coach K will rebuild again but with a different type of team. They should have a dominating interior presence in Carey, but with the additions of Hurt, and Stanley they add outside shooting they lacked last year. Back-up big man Bolden is leaving the program but getting DeLaurier back gives them some experienced back-up play. This team is dangerous partly because it has more experience returning than in previous years. Duke should remain one of the top 3 teams in the ACC this season and could be the pre-season favorate.


Florida State (13-5, 4)
Key losses
So F Kabengele – 14.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 1.7 bpg, 38% Three, #19
SR Wing Mann 10.3 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 2.8 apg, 44% threes, #24
SR C Koumadje 6.2 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1.6 bpg, #73
SR G Nichols 5.5 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 1.9 apg, #79
SR PF Cofer 7.4 ppg, 4.1 rpg, #92
SR G Savoy 5.4 ppg, #107

Key Returnees
Jr G Forrest – 5.4 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 3.9 apg, #53
So G Walker – 7.9 ppg, 1.9 rpg, #68
Fr Wing Gray – 3.3 ppg, 2.5 rpg, #108

Key Newcomers
SF Williams – 5*, Top 25
C Koprivica – 4*, Top 100
JUCO G Jack
JUCO G Evans
SF Nwokeji – 3*
Transfer – F Osborne (from Rice, 9 ppg, 6.5 rpg)
Grad Transfer – C Olejniczak (from Ole Miss, 5.3 ppg, 3.0 rpg)


FSU is largely likely stay right where there are next season. While they lose a large number of players they have recruited well for years and have a lot of Top 100 underclassmen and bring in a large FR class that includes 5-star SF Patrick Williams and 4-star center Balsa Koprivica. They also add former Rice FR Malik Osbourne who sat out last season. He avg 9 ppg, 6.5 rpg as a FR at Rice. They also added grad transfer 7’ Olejniczk from Ole Miss for additional depth. He avg 5.3 ppg, 3.0 rpg for Ole Miss. They have a number of players that redshirted last season because they were so deep. I expect them to continue to stay in the Top tier this season.


Georgia Tech (6-12, 10)
Key Losses
SR PF Gueye 8.1 ppg, 3.9 rpg, #66
So SG Haywood 3.7 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 2.0 apg, 1.3 spg, #96

Key Returnees
So PG Alvarado – 12.5 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 3.6 apg, 1.85:1 A:TO, 32% Three, #18
Jr C Banks – 11.4 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 2.6 bpg, #31
Fr G Devoe – 10.4 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 2.8 apg, 44% Three, #44
So F Wright – 6.1 ppg, 3.6 rpg, #93
Fr Wing Moore – 3.2 ppg, #104
Fr F Sjolund – 4.3 ppg, 36% Three, #121

Key Newcomers
Transfer – wing Usher (from USC, 8.6 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 37% Career Three)
Transfer – G Parham (from VMI, 21.4 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 3.5 apg, 39.7% Three)

Georgia Tech is a team I would expect to make a jump into the middle third of the conference from its 10th place finish. They had 2 SR and only one played a lot in ACC play and GT returns all 5 starters from its last 2 weeks of the season. While it currently has no impact FR coming in it has a former 4-star forward Usher transferring from USC and he avg 8.6 ppg and 3.7 rpg before transferring as a So and has made 37% of his threes at USC. They also have small, shooting PG Parham transferring from VMI who avg 21.4 ppg and shot 40% from three. Usher is seeking a waiver to play immediately, otherwise he will be available Dec 9. Parham is seeking a hardship waiver to play immediately. Parham was one of the best scorers and 3-pt shooters in college basketball last season. If Parham gets his waiver I could see this team anywhere from 6th to 8th. Without Parham it could be closer to 9th or 10th.
 

RamblinRed

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Louisville (10-8, T6)
Key Losses
GR G Cunningham 10.5 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 6.0 apg, #13

Key Returnees
SO F Nwora 16.9 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 36% Three, #25
Jr F Sutton 11.1 ppg, 7.6 rpg, #33
R-Jr F/C Enoch 9.4 ppg, 5.3 rpg, #61
SO C Williams 8.7 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 1.0 bpg, #64
Jr G McMahon 7 ppg, 38.6% Three, #76

Key Newcomers
SF Williamson, 5*, Top 20
C Igiehon 4*, Top 50
CG Johnson 4*, Top 100
SG Nickleberry 4*, Top 100
PF Withers 4*, Top 125
Grad Transfer – PG Kimble (from St. Joseph’s, 15.6 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 2.8 apg, 32% Career Three)

If there is any team I could see jumping into the top tier in the ACC Louisville is that team. They have 1 key loss in grad transfer Cunningham, but bring back pretty much everyone else and add a Top 10 recruiting class that includes 5 Top 100 players, including one borderline 5-star and one of the most sought after grad transfers in Kimble. It is easy to imagine this squad finishing in the top 3 next year. This team should be one of the top 3 the ACC and is a threat to finish first.


Miami (5-13, T11)
Key Losses
SR Wing Lawrence 12.2 rpg, 6.5 rpg, 3.1 apg, 36% Three, #27
SR F Izundu 10.5 ppg, 8.2 rpg, #32
GR G Johnson 11.2 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 2.5 apg, #36
Fr G Mack 2.6 ppg, #125

Key Returnees
So G Lykes 15.9 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.9 apg, 1.2 spg, 30% Three, #17
Jr G/F Vaseljevic 10.4 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 31% Three, #59
So F Waardenburg 5.1ppg, 3.4 rpg, 45% Three, #74

Key Newcomers
CG Beverly 4*, Top 50
CG Wong 4*, Top 75
PF Walker 3*
Transfer – G McGusty (from OK, 8 ppg, 34% career Three)
Grad Transfer – PF Stone (from FL, 6.1 ppg, 3.9 rpg, career 39.4% Three)
Transfer – C Brooks (from Cincy, 8.1 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 1.5 bpg)

Miami was hit hard by injuries and Huell being named ineligible this past season. Even so it loses 3 of its 5 starters from last year’s team and 4 of its 7 rotation players – as 7th man Mack decided to transfer after the season. Miami had a strong spring recruiting period to help reload the roster. OK guard transfer Kam McGusty – 8 ppg as soph to add as well as hoping to have former 4* So F Denk Gak back from the knee injury he suffered last year and center Rodney Miller coming off a redshirt. Miami brings in 3 solid FR with the big pickup of Top 50 Beverly in the Spring and hopes to get a waiver for Cincy transfer Brooks – has one yr of eligibility remaining. They also bring in FL big man Keith Stone as a grad transfer. If Brooks gets his waiver this team could be a lot better than last year. Without him it should still be improved, though not as much. I think this team could finish anywhere from 6th through 10th. Should also note that Larranaga turns 70 this year, it will be interesting to see how much longer he coaches.


NC State (9-9, T8)
Key losses
SR G Dorn 12.8 ppg, 7.2 rpg, #39
GR F Walker 3.9 ppg, 4.3 rpg, #82
GR G Lockett 4.3 ppg, 3.0 rpg, #87

Key Returnees
Jr PG Johnson 11.1 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 4.3 apg, 1.3 spg, 36% Three, #26
Jr G Bryce 12 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.0 apg, 36.6% Three, #37
So F/C Funderburk 9.3 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.2 bpg, #41
So G Beverly 10.7 ppg, 2.7 apg, 1.1 spg, 36% Three, #49
So G Daniels 9.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 32% Three, #62
Fr F Hellems 4.2 ppg, 2.4 rpg, #109
So PG Harris 1.9 ppg, #113

Key Newcomers
SG Seaborn 3*, Top 125
JUCO SF Taylor
Grad Transfer – F Andree (from Leheigh, 12.9 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 41.5% Career Three)
Grad Transfer – C Dixon (from UMKC, 7.5 ppg, 3.6 rpg)

Keatts has done a pretty nice job his first 2 seasons and will return most of the important pieces to this past year’s squad that just missed the NCAA (likely due to the loss to GT). The program is definitely being built in the image Keatts wants with mostly athlete wing and guard types. This team did lose KY transfer Killeya-Jones without him ever playing a game. Top 40 recruit LEN Lecque decided to go straight to the NBA rather than attend college. This team is still likely to have some issues inside, though they are hoping R-FR Manny Bates can help out there. Andree is a prototypical stretch 4 while Dixon should provide some depth at C. Getting Johnson back for his SR year was huge for this program. They will also look for former 4* SF Hellems to step up his game as a SO. This team returns a lot of experience from a middle of the pack program. Note that their one remaining HS recruit – Seaborn has reportedly not yet qualified for college. I could see this team finishing as high as 5th or it could end up right where it was this season – around 8th.


North Carolina (16-2, T1)
Key losses
SR F Johnson 17.2 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 2.8 apg, 1.2 spg, 46% Three, #5
FR G White 18.1 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 4.2 apg, 1.1 spg, 38.5% Three, #6
SR F Maye 14.9 ppg, 10.9 rpg, 2.8 apg, #16
SR Wing Williams 9.1 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 3.0 apg, 33% Three, #42
FR F Little 8.6 ppg, 4.7 rpg, #55

Key Returnees
So PF Brooks 7.6 ppg, 5.8 rpg, #51
Jr SG Robinson 3 ppg, 1.6 apg, 45% Three, #98
Fr F Black 1.9 ppg, #117

Key Newcomers
PG Anthony 5*, Top 5
C Bacot 5*, Top 25
CG Harris 4*, Top 75
Grad Transfer – SG Keeling (from Charleston Southern, 18.7 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 2.8 apg, 38% Three)
Grad Transfer – SF Pierce (from William & Mary, 14.9 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 34.5% Career Three)

UNC had a big spring period to reload their program. First they got a commit from the top PG in the country in Anthony, then picked up CG Harris who decommitted from VT after the coaching change and then added two highly sought after grad transfers in Keeling and Pierce. They did lose rising Sr Seventh Woods who could not seem to find a place in the rotation. Anthony should start at PG and Bacot at C – allowing Brooks to move back to his more natural PF spot. Robinson likely has the inside track to one of the wing spots. Harris and Keeling likely fight it out for the last starting spot. Pierce provides a stretch CF type. This team will likely not be a strong as last year’s squad but it should still finish in the top 3 in the ACC.


Notre Dame (3-15, T14)
Key losses
So G Harvey 10.2 ppg, 3.9 rpg, #69

Key Returnees
Jr C Mooney 15 ppg, 12.6 rpg, 33% Three, #14
Jr G Gibbs 12.9 ppg, 3.2 apg, 1.4 spg, 30% Three, #23
Fr G Hubb 9.1 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 4.5 apg, 29% Three, #38
Fr F Laszewski 7.1 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 30% Three, #81
Fr G Goodwin 5.2 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 38% Three, #85
So F Durham 3.5 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 1.5 bpg, #99
Jr F Djogo 3.3 ppg, 3.2 rpg, #103

Key Newcomers
None

Notre Dame was another team beset by the injury bug this year as it lost Sr wing Pfluerger (8 ppg, 3 rpg, 35% Three) and FR G Carmody (3.7 ppg) to season ending injuries. Notre Dame did not have any seniors in its rotation and it showed as Brey’s preferred ‘get old, stay old” program was forced to play very young. Notre Dame took an offseason hit with starter Harvey deciding to transfer. He was the 4th best player on the team and hurts their ability to rebound quickly with Pflueger and Carmody back. ND does not have any new recruits coming in and rather is going to rely on the young players growing up and getting 2 important pieces back. They should be better than last year and could just sneak into the middle tier. I’m thinking around 9th – 11th for them.
 

RamblinRed

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Pittsburgh (3-15, T14)
Key losses
SR F Wilson-Frame 12.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 38% Three, #52
GR G N’Dir 6.1 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 1.9 apg, #67
Jr G Ellison 3.9 ppg, 3.5 rpg, #112

Key Returnees
Fr G Johnson 15.2 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 4.2 apg, 1.3 spg, 31% Three, #10
Fr G McGowens 11 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.8 apg, 1.8 spg, 32% Three, #40
So C Brown 6.1 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.8 bpg, #77
Fr F Toney 5.9 ppg, 5.5 rpg, #86
Jr F/C Chukwuka 3.1 ppg, 2.1 rpg, #101

Key Newcomers
SF Drumgoole 4*, Top 125
SF Champagnie 3*
PF Coulibaly 3*
JUCO – SG Murphy (from New Mexico JC, 18.5 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 28% Three)

Pitt got off to a promising start in the ACC before reality set in and they lost 14 in a row until a season ending win against ND and an opening ACC Tourney day win over BC. Wilson-Frame will be missed more than people think as he was the 2nd leading scorer and rebounder on the team and had almost 50% of their made threes in ACC games, but the backcourt of Johson and McGowens is a nice start. Once it got to ACC play Pitt struggled inside and also struggled with 3-pt shooting as only Wilson-Frame shot over 33%. Coach Capel will continue to rebuild in season 2. He was shut out in the fall signing period, but has commits from 3 players in the spring – including 2 Top 150 types (one reclassifying from 2020). Can he have lightning strike twice in the spring period? Backup big Chukwuka is out until at least January with a hip injury and might redshirt just making their inside situation worse. They brought in SG Murphy – who started his career at Charlotte before transferring to New Mexico JC to help with outside shooting. He only shot 28% from three last season and only played 13 games due to injury but shot 40% from three as a FR at Charlotte. Due to the lack of size rising So Toney is likely to have to play out of position at PF again. I see incremental improvement for this team but 11th is probably the ceiling and it wouldn’t be shocking if they finished around 13th, especially if the 3-pt shooting isn’t there.


Syracuse (10-8, T6)
Key losses
SR PG Howard 8.9 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 2.6 apg, 1,2 spg, 35.4% Three, #54
SR C Chukwu 4.4 ppg, 5,4 rpg, 1.7 bpg, #70
JR Wing Battle 16.7 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 3.1 apg, 1.1 spg, 31% Three, #12
SO F Brissett 11.7 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 1.7 apg, #35

Key Returnees
Jr G/F Hughes 12.4 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 1.1 spg, 36% Three, #50
So F Dolezaj 4.7 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 1.8 apg, 1.5 spg, 33% Three, #60
Fr G Boeheim 7.6 ppg, 40.7% Threes, #78
So C Sidibe 1.2 ppg, 2.1 rpg, #130
Fr G Carey 1.1 ppg, #139

Key Newcomers
SG Goodine 4*, Top 100
CF Guerrier 4*, Top 125
C Edwards 3*
CG Girard 3*
C Bol Ajak 3*

Syracuse was in the upper part of the middle of the league this year and I sort of feel like they are likely to stay somewhere within the middle third for the next 3 seasons before Boeheim likely retires (after Buddy graduates). They lose 4 rotation players, including 3 of their top 4 scorers and their primary center. They have a nice 5 man recruiting class led by Top 100 SG Goodine and Top 125 CF Guerrier. It also includes NY sharp shooter Joe Girard and likely long term defensive big Ajak and developing big Edwards. They also have to be hoping that after a forgettable FR year that former Top 75 recruit G Carey starts to play to his ranking as a Soph. This team should be a better 3-pt shooting squad than last year, but it’s inside scoring is suspect and it is likely to be not as strong defensively with weaker backside protection and a slightly smaller squad. Best case scenario is around last year’s 6th place finish and if the pieces don’t come together it could finish as low as 10th.


Virginia (16-2, T1)
Key losses
JR PG Jerome 13.0 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 6.1 apg, 1.0 spg, 45% threes, #8
R-SO F Hunter 15.6 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 2.1 apg, 50% threes, #15
Jr G Guy 15.3 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 2.1 apg, 45% Threes, #29
SR C Salt 3.3 ppg, 3.4 rpg, #106

Key Returnees
Jr F Diakite 7.6 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 2.1 bpg, #63
Jr F Key 6.3 ppg, 5.6 rpg, #65
Fr PG Clark 3.4 ppg, 2.1 apg, 37% Threes, #90
So F Huff 5.4 pg, 2.6 rpg #91

Key Newcomers
SG Morsell 4*, Top 50
C Shedrick 4*, Top 75
SF McKoy 3*
JUCO SG Woldetensae

Virginia will have to rebuild for the first time since Coach Bennett got the program going. Virginia hasn’t finished below 12th in the final KenPom rankings in 6 years – that is likely to change next year. But getting Diakite back will help make next year a little better than it would have been if the entire Jr class had left. Bennett has 2 skilled 4-star FR coming in next year in big man Shedrick and SG Morrell. Woldetensae was a JUCO AA who is known for his shooting. There are also a number of young players that have been redshirted that will be asked to take a bigger role. Virginia will fall back next season but still has a shot at being an NCAA club. If all goes well I think it could finish as high as 5th, if things don’t come together it might fall down to 8th.


Virginia Tech (12-6, 5)
Key Losses
R-JR F Blackshear Jr 15.5 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 2.6 apg, 39% threes, #4
SO Wing Alexander-Walker 15.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 3.9 apg, 1.6 spg, 34% threes, #9
SR G Robinson 13.3 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 4.2 apg, 1.2 spg, 44% threes, #11
SR G Hill 13.6 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 31% threes, #43
Grad F Outlaw 9.3 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 43% threes, #58

Key Returnees
So PG Bede 3.3 ppg, 2.7 apg, 1.4 spg, 26% Threes, #80
Fr G Wilkins 3.8 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 45% Threes, #111
So F Horne 2.1 ppg, 1.6 rpg, #129

Key Newcomers
PG Cone 4*, Top 100
PG Cattoor 3*
Grad Transfer – F Johnson (from AL St, 4.3 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 37% Career FT – yes not threes, FT)

Coach Williams has built a very good program in Blacksburg but is off to Texas A&M and is being replaced by Wofford HC Mike Young – one of the better mid-major coaches. Young has been at Wofford for almost 30 years and has never coached in a power conference. With all the departures this has become a complete rebuild project. Alexander-Walker broke out as a Soph and is leaving for the draft. VT effectively loses its top 5 players and doesn’t return a player who avg even 4 ppg, nor anyone over 6’7. Getting cone to reclassify from 2020 was a big win for VT, but a 5’9 scoring PG guard can only help so much. The tallest returning player is 6’7 Nolley. The biggest returning post player is 6’5 Horne who played 126 min in ACC action. Bede is the only player who has significant ACC experience and he was the 6th best player on the team last year. Johnson was brought in just to give this team any height it can get. Cattoor followed Young from Wofford. This team lack both talent and experience and more than 2-3 ACC wins would be an incredible coaching job by Young. 15th is likely for this team, maybe it outperforms and gets to 14th.


Wake Forest (4-14, 13)
Key losses
FR F Hoard 11.6 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 1.6 apg, #34
GR F Smart 2.3 ppg, 3.3 rpg, #127

Key Returnees
Jr G Childress 13.6 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.8 apg, 1.4 spg, 33% Threes, #21
So F Brown 12.1 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 29% Threes, #49
So C Sarr 5.9 ppg, 5.8 rpg, #72
Fr G Wright 7.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 34% Threes, #83
Gr G Johnson 5.4 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 37.5% Threes, #89
Fr G/F Mucius 5.2 ppg, 3.4 rpg, #94

Key Newcomers
SF Massoud 3*, Top 150
PG Neath 3*
PF Ingraham 3*
PF Oguama 3*

Wake decided to bring back Danny Manning, much to the consternation of Deacon fans. It is rumored he has a guaranteed contract that runs into 8 figures. Wake only lost 2 players – but Hoard was the most talented and 2nd best player on the team and Smart didn’t provide much in terms of stats but ate some minutes at PF. This team is weak inside with the only experienced big being Sarr – who is not a particularly strong big man. They have an ok recruiting class coming in, but no one expected to be impact players. They really need Brown and Wright to continue to improve. There is some talent on this team with 3 former 4 star players. I don’t expect much change in fortunes for this team. It could move up slightly – high as 11th – with some teams like BC and VT likely to fall below them, but they could also see teams like ND and Pitt move in front of them. Anywhere from 14th to 11th is the likely range.
 

Peacone36

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I am not going to post my own right now and try to outdo Red, but we actually agree in many areas. I will lend a few thoughts.

The ACC has a clear bottom 5 of : VT, BC, Clemson, Wake, Pitt right now. The only one of those I can see spacing themselves from the rest is Pitt who rcvd some bad news yesterday that the other Champagnie brother will not be attending Pitt and has committed to St. Johns.

It is still early but I have that next tier being: Syracuse, GT, Miami, FSU.

Then NC State, Virginia Notre Dame.- I still like Virginia. Especially now that Diakite is back. I thought that Hauser was goign to be eligible but was incorrect on that. Nevertheless, I think limiting posessions and grinding out wins will still lead to a good season for them. If you look back on the London Perrantes year (Kyle Guys freshman season) they were able to win while not being very good offensively. If there is one guy that can scheme his way to wins its Bennett.

Top Tier: Louisville, UNC, Duke. In that order. I like Louisville to win the ACC next year right now. 6 of their top 7 scorers returning with a top 5 recruiting class. Size, shooting, talent, leadership, coaching, star power rebounding, rim protection, versatility, they have it all. Much of the reason that I chose UNC last year.

Couple breakout guys from me: Jalen Carey (Syracuse), Hunter Tyson(Clemson), Dane Goodwin (ND), Devin Vassell (FSU) and our own Moses Wright. Tyson is the biggest stretch here but I really like his size and he can really stroke it. Simms should move into that mid range 4 IMHO, hes too inefficient from deep, Tyson should slide into that swingman role.

Freshman to watch aside from the obvious: Isaiah Wong (Miami), Kareem Coulibaly (Pitt), Casey Morsell (UVA): Wong and his freshman mate Harlond Beverly are really nice building blocks for Miamis future back court. Both are around 6'3-6'4. Really nice players. Coulibaly is a big burly kid who is taking over a four spot that Malik Ellison was asked to play last year for a lot of minutes but that just wasnt his game. At the very least Kareem is an upgrade over Chukwuku. Morsell could be the difference maker for UVA right now. If he can make shots that is going to alleviate some of the pressure on a guys like Kody Stattman or Braxton Key who arent great shooters. Someone Reds list left out who also left UVA was Marco Anthony, who a lot of Virginia fans thought had a bright future. If Virginia is going to be a factor this year they need something out of Morsell.
 

joehamiltonfan14

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
445
So we may potentially be better and everyone with the exception of Louisville, UNC, FSU, Duke and Cuse will be worse? Could be good for us. Need that waiver for Parnham
 

Peacone36

Helluva Engineer
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Location
Maine
So we may potentially be better and everyone with the exception of Louisville, UNC, FSU, Duke and Cuse will be worse? Could be good for us. Need that waiver for Parnham

Those tiers were in inverse order. I would put Louisville, UNC, Duke, Notre Dame, State, Virginia ahead of us. After that.....it will more than likely be a crapshoot. I do really like Miami more than most though. Id put them above us. Id probably put FSU a slot ahead of us.

So id have us 9th.
 

YlJacket

Helluva Engineer
Messages
3,167
Those tiers were in inverse order. I would put Louisville, UNC, Duke, Notre Dame, State, Virginia ahead of us. After that.....it will more than likely be a crapshoot. I do really like Miami more than most though. Id put them above us. Id probably put FSU a slot ahead of us.

So id have us 9th.

Until we know what is going on with Parham it is really hard to slot us.
I also hope that DeVoe becomes the breakout player for us. We desperately need a lead dog scorer.
 

RamblinCharger

Helluva Engineer
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Alabama
Thanks Red! That was a great read. I agree with your analysis. I don't think we can slot GT yet without knowing about Parham, but I'll slot us assuming we're getting him. We know the top 3 of Louisville, Duke, and UNC will be better, and I don't see why Virginia or FSU would all of a sudden drop out of the top 4-5 teams, but outside of that group we should be able to hang with anyone in the league. I would have the league set up like so (no order)

Top tier:
- Louisville
- UNC
- Duke

2nd tier
- UVA
- FSU

3rd tier:
- Syracuse
- ND
- GT
- Miami
- NCST

4th tier:
- VT
- Wake
- Clemson
- BC
- Pitt

Like Red mentioned, if GT gets Parham eligible immediately, I think we can finish 6th-8th, and be a tourney team.
 

Peacone36

Helluva Engineer
Messages
10,332
Location
Maine
Thanks Red! That was a great read. I agree with your analysis. I don't think we can slot GT yet without knowing about Parham, but I'll slot us assuming we're getting him. We know the top 3 of Louisville, Duke, and UNC will be better, and I don't see why Virginia or FSU would all of a sudden drop out of the top 4-5 teams, but outside of that group we should be able to hang with anyone in the league. I would have the league set up like so (no order)

Top tier:
- Louisville
- UNC
- Duke

2nd tier
- UVA
- FSU

3rd tier:
- Syracuse
- ND
- GT
- Miami
- NCST

4th tier:
- VT
- Wake
- Clemson
- BC
- Pitt

Like Red mentioned, if GT gets Parham eligible immediately, I think we can finish 6th-8th, and be a tourney team.

Even with Parham (and Usher, who right now isn’t eligible until Jan.) I think 6th is realllly ambitious. 8-9 is best case for me with a welcome back prize trip to sunny Dayton.
 

RamblinCharger

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,484
Location
Alabama
Even with Parham (and Usher, who right now isn’t eligible until Jan.) I think 6th is realllly ambitious. 8-9 is best case for me with a welcome back prize trip to sunny Dayton.
Maybe so, 6th last year finished tied with 7 at 10-8. We have 20 games this year, so assume 12-8 or 11-9 to finish in that range. I think we could get to 10 or maybe 11 wins. 12 does seem like a stretch, so we may finish more like 8th. Not crapping the bed in the non-conference will determine our post season fate. Can't afford to lose more than 3 games. Really need to win all but 2 in the non-conference and then go 10-10 or 11-9 in ACC play to leave us on the bubble.
 

MiracleWhips

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
583
Worst case we need to be a bubble team this year, if all players get their waivers to play (which is likely) and we stay healthy. Pastner would have to do a pretty bad job this year for us to not be a tourney team( which is not likely).
 
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