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A look ahead for all ACC teams for next season. I’ll update this as waiver decisions and any late recruiting decisions are made. All data is based on ACC Games only and the rankings are from my efficiency/game metrics that I track every year.
Boston College (5-13, T11)
Key losses
JR G Bowman - 18.0 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 4.4 apg, 1.3 spg, 40% Three, #7
SR SG Chatman – 13.4 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 2.0 apg, 36.3% Three, #45
Key Returnees
Jr F Popovic – 14.8 ppg, 6.9 rpg, #28
So F Mitchell – 4.1 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 1.6 bpg, #46
Fr G Tabbs – 11.3 ppg, 2.7 rpg – played 3 games before season ending injury, #56
Jr G Hamilton – 6.2 ppg, 2.4 rpg, #84
Fr F Hamilton – 5.3 ppg, 3.1 rpg, #95
Key Newcomers
PF Felder 3*
SG Heath 3*
SG Rishwain 3*
SF Williams 3*
Boston College has decided to retain Jim Christian for another season. With Kyle Bowman declaring for the NBA it is hard to picture this team being anything but a bottom 2-3 team in the conference. While they only lost 2 players – it happens to be their starting backcourt and those 2 accounted for 46% of their points, 51% of their assists and 70% of their made threes. That is just a lot of production to replace. They get Wynston Tabbs back from injury, which will help the backcourt, and have a good, by BC standards, recruiting class, but there really isn’t enough here to win with any consistency. Hard to imagine where enough scoring is going to come from outside of Popovic. Hopefully rising SO Hamilton can become more consistent and live up to his 4* billing. They are hoping that incoming freshmen F Calver Felder (3*, #222) and G Jay Heath (3*, #223) can provide some immediate help. This team finished T11 last season and that is the ceiling for them. They could easily slip back to 13th or 14th.
Clemson (9-9, T8)
Key Losses
SR SG Reed - 19.1 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 2.7 apg, 40% Three, #3
SR C Thomas - 12.9 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 2.6 bpg, #20
SR PG Mitchell - 10.1 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 2.9 apg, 34% Three, #48
SR PF Skara - 5.9 ppg, 3.6 rpg, #75
Key Returnees
So F Simms – 6.9 ppg, 4.6 rpg, #71
So G Trapp – 5.2 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 34% Three, #88
Key Newcomers
G Hunter – 4*, Top 125
G Dawes – 4*, Top 125
Transfer – F/C Baehre (from UNC-Asheville, 7.4 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 37% Career Three)
Grad Transfer – G Scott (from Tulsa, 8.9 ppg, 39.4% Three)
Transfer – F Moore (from Texas Tech)
Transfer – G Honor (from Fordham, 15.3 ppg, 3.0 apg, 33% Three)
Clemson is looking at a major rebuild next season. Replacing 2 Top 20 ACC players for any school is not easy, for Clemson it will be almost impossible, especially when they lose two other starters and their primary big man backup. Its top returning player will be starting CF Simms who avg 6.9 ppg. It also got bad news last week as transfer big Johnathan Baehre tore his ACL. He was expected to be at least a rotation player if not a starter. Clemson has a solid recruiting class led by Top 125 recruits Hunter and Dawes but simply doesn’t have the talent or experience to replace what is leaving and it lacks any bigs with experience. Inside play in particular could be very difficult. Clemson hit the transfer market hard this offseason to help rebuild. Grad transfer Scott is a likely starter at SG. He started his career with Mark Price at Charlotte and then transferred to Tulsa. He avg 9 ppg and shot almost 40% from three last season. They are hoping Khavon Moore will be able to get a waiver to play this season as he moves back closer to home. He’s a former Top 50 recruit but broke his leg his Sr year of HS and has only played 2 min since then. They also brought in Nick Honor from Fordham who had a big Fr year - RoY. They will try to get a waiver for him as well, but that is less likely than Moore. Honor is a scoring PG who avg 15.3 ppg and 3.0 assts and shot 33% from three. They are going to have to rely on FR and SO like Hunter, Jemison and Newman who barely saw the floor last year to play major roles. Clemson finished T8 last season and made the NIT. It should be in the bottom tier this season and just being .500 would be a good goal. Anywhere from 13th to 11th would be the likely range.
Duke (14-4, 3)
Key losses
FR F Williamson 22.6 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 2.2 apg, 1.8 bpg, 2.1 spg, #1
FR F Barrett 23.6 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 4.4 apg, #2
FR F Reddish 14.7 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.4 apg, 1.5 spg, #30
Jr C Bolden – 6.4 ppg, 5.2 rpg, #57
Key Returnees
Fr PG Jones – 8.4 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 4.9 apg, 3.5:1 A:TO, #22
Jr F DeLaurier – 2.7 pp, 2.6 rpg, #97
So Wing O’Connell – 4.8 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 40% three, #100
Jr F White – 3.4 ppg, 4.4 rpg, #102
Key Newcomers
C Carey – 5*, Top 5
F Hurt – 5*, Top 10
SF Moore – 5*, Top 25
SG Stanley – 4*, Top 35
After losing its three primary scorers Duke had a big spring to reload. Williamson and Barrett had 2 of the highest eff/game metrics I have tracked in the ACC. First, Tre Jones staying for his soph year really helps. They also added stretch 4 Hurt and SG Stanley to their fall hall to have the #2 recruiting class. Coach K will rebuild again but with a different type of team. They should have a dominating interior presence in Carey, but with the additions of Hurt, and Stanley they add outside shooting they lacked last year. Back-up big man Bolden is leaving the program but getting DeLaurier back gives them some experienced back-up play. This team is dangerous partly because it has more experience returning than in previous years. Duke should remain one of the top 3 teams in the ACC this season and could be the pre-season favorate.
Florida State (13-5, 4)
Key losses
So F Kabengele – 14.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 1.7 bpg, 38% Three, #19
SR Wing Mann 10.3 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 2.8 apg, 44% threes, #24
SR C Koumadje 6.2 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1.6 bpg, #73
SR G Nichols 5.5 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 1.9 apg, #79
SR PF Cofer 7.4 ppg, 4.1 rpg, #92
SR G Savoy 5.4 ppg, #107
Key Returnees
Jr G Forrest – 5.4 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 3.9 apg, #53
So G Walker – 7.9 ppg, 1.9 rpg, #68
Fr Wing Gray – 3.3 ppg, 2.5 rpg, #108
Key Newcomers
SF Williams – 5*, Top 25
C Koprivica – 4*, Top 100
JUCO G Jack
JUCO G Evans
SF Nwokeji – 3*
Transfer – F Osborne (from Rice, 9 ppg, 6.5 rpg)
Grad Transfer – C Olejniczak (from Ole Miss, 5.3 ppg, 3.0 rpg)
FSU is largely likely stay right where there are next season. While they lose a large number of players they have recruited well for years and have a lot of Top 100 underclassmen and bring in a large FR class that includes 5-star SF Patrick Williams and 4-star center Balsa Koprivica. They also add former Rice FR Malik Osbourne who sat out last season. He avg 9 ppg, 6.5 rpg as a FR at Rice. They also added grad transfer 7’ Olejniczk from Ole Miss for additional depth. He avg 5.3 ppg, 3.0 rpg for Ole Miss. They have a number of players that redshirted last season because they were so deep. I expect them to continue to stay in the Top tier this season.
Georgia Tech (6-12, 10)
Key Losses
SR PF Gueye 8.1 ppg, 3.9 rpg, #66
So SG Haywood 3.7 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 2.0 apg, 1.3 spg, #96
Key Returnees
So PG Alvarado – 12.5 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 3.6 apg, 1.85:1 A:TO, 32% Three, #18
Jr C Banks – 11.4 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 2.6 bpg, #31
Fr G Devoe – 10.4 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 2.8 apg, 44% Three, #44
So F Wright – 6.1 ppg, 3.6 rpg, #93
Fr Wing Moore – 3.2 ppg, #104
Fr F Sjolund – 4.3 ppg, 36% Three, #121
Key Newcomers
Transfer – wing Usher (from USC, 8.6 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 37% Career Three)
Transfer – G Parham (from VMI, 21.4 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 3.5 apg, 39.7% Three)
Georgia Tech is a team I would expect to make a jump into the middle third of the conference from its 10th place finish. They had 2 SR and only one played a lot in ACC play and GT returns all 5 starters from its last 2 weeks of the season. While it currently has no impact FR coming in it has a former 4-star forward Usher transferring from USC and he avg 8.6 ppg and 3.7 rpg before transferring as a So and has made 37% of his threes at USC. They also have small, shooting PG Parham transferring from VMI who avg 21.4 ppg and shot 40% from three. Usher is seeking a waiver to play immediately, otherwise he will be available Dec 9. Parham is seeking a hardship waiver to play immediately. Parham was one of the best scorers and 3-pt shooters in college basketball last season. If Parham gets his waiver I could see this team anywhere from 6th to 8th. Without Parham it could be closer to 9th or 10th.
Boston College (5-13, T11)
Key losses
JR G Bowman - 18.0 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 4.4 apg, 1.3 spg, 40% Three, #7
SR SG Chatman – 13.4 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 2.0 apg, 36.3% Three, #45
Key Returnees
Jr F Popovic – 14.8 ppg, 6.9 rpg, #28
So F Mitchell – 4.1 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 1.6 bpg, #46
Fr G Tabbs – 11.3 ppg, 2.7 rpg – played 3 games before season ending injury, #56
Jr G Hamilton – 6.2 ppg, 2.4 rpg, #84
Fr F Hamilton – 5.3 ppg, 3.1 rpg, #95
Key Newcomers
PF Felder 3*
SG Heath 3*
SG Rishwain 3*
SF Williams 3*
Boston College has decided to retain Jim Christian for another season. With Kyle Bowman declaring for the NBA it is hard to picture this team being anything but a bottom 2-3 team in the conference. While they only lost 2 players – it happens to be their starting backcourt and those 2 accounted for 46% of their points, 51% of their assists and 70% of their made threes. That is just a lot of production to replace. They get Wynston Tabbs back from injury, which will help the backcourt, and have a good, by BC standards, recruiting class, but there really isn’t enough here to win with any consistency. Hard to imagine where enough scoring is going to come from outside of Popovic. Hopefully rising SO Hamilton can become more consistent and live up to his 4* billing. They are hoping that incoming freshmen F Calver Felder (3*, #222) and G Jay Heath (3*, #223) can provide some immediate help. This team finished T11 last season and that is the ceiling for them. They could easily slip back to 13th or 14th.
Clemson (9-9, T8)
Key Losses
SR SG Reed - 19.1 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 2.7 apg, 40% Three, #3
SR C Thomas - 12.9 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 2.6 bpg, #20
SR PG Mitchell - 10.1 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 2.9 apg, 34% Three, #48
SR PF Skara - 5.9 ppg, 3.6 rpg, #75
Key Returnees
So F Simms – 6.9 ppg, 4.6 rpg, #71
So G Trapp – 5.2 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 34% Three, #88
Key Newcomers
G Hunter – 4*, Top 125
G Dawes – 4*, Top 125
Transfer – F/C Baehre (from UNC-Asheville, 7.4 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 37% Career Three)
Grad Transfer – G Scott (from Tulsa, 8.9 ppg, 39.4% Three)
Transfer – F Moore (from Texas Tech)
Transfer – G Honor (from Fordham, 15.3 ppg, 3.0 apg, 33% Three)
Clemson is looking at a major rebuild next season. Replacing 2 Top 20 ACC players for any school is not easy, for Clemson it will be almost impossible, especially when they lose two other starters and their primary big man backup. Its top returning player will be starting CF Simms who avg 6.9 ppg. It also got bad news last week as transfer big Johnathan Baehre tore his ACL. He was expected to be at least a rotation player if not a starter. Clemson has a solid recruiting class led by Top 125 recruits Hunter and Dawes but simply doesn’t have the talent or experience to replace what is leaving and it lacks any bigs with experience. Inside play in particular could be very difficult. Clemson hit the transfer market hard this offseason to help rebuild. Grad transfer Scott is a likely starter at SG. He started his career with Mark Price at Charlotte and then transferred to Tulsa. He avg 9 ppg and shot almost 40% from three last season. They are hoping Khavon Moore will be able to get a waiver to play this season as he moves back closer to home. He’s a former Top 50 recruit but broke his leg his Sr year of HS and has only played 2 min since then. They also brought in Nick Honor from Fordham who had a big Fr year - RoY. They will try to get a waiver for him as well, but that is less likely than Moore. Honor is a scoring PG who avg 15.3 ppg and 3.0 assts and shot 33% from three. They are going to have to rely on FR and SO like Hunter, Jemison and Newman who barely saw the floor last year to play major roles. Clemson finished T8 last season and made the NIT. It should be in the bottom tier this season and just being .500 would be a good goal. Anywhere from 13th to 11th would be the likely range.
Duke (14-4, 3)
Key losses
FR F Williamson 22.6 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 2.2 apg, 1.8 bpg, 2.1 spg, #1
FR F Barrett 23.6 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 4.4 apg, #2
FR F Reddish 14.7 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.4 apg, 1.5 spg, #30
Jr C Bolden – 6.4 ppg, 5.2 rpg, #57
Key Returnees
Fr PG Jones – 8.4 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 4.9 apg, 3.5:1 A:TO, #22
Jr F DeLaurier – 2.7 pp, 2.6 rpg, #97
So Wing O’Connell – 4.8 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 40% three, #100
Jr F White – 3.4 ppg, 4.4 rpg, #102
Key Newcomers
C Carey – 5*, Top 5
F Hurt – 5*, Top 10
SF Moore – 5*, Top 25
SG Stanley – 4*, Top 35
After losing its three primary scorers Duke had a big spring to reload. Williamson and Barrett had 2 of the highest eff/game metrics I have tracked in the ACC. First, Tre Jones staying for his soph year really helps. They also added stretch 4 Hurt and SG Stanley to their fall hall to have the #2 recruiting class. Coach K will rebuild again but with a different type of team. They should have a dominating interior presence in Carey, but with the additions of Hurt, and Stanley they add outside shooting they lacked last year. Back-up big man Bolden is leaving the program but getting DeLaurier back gives them some experienced back-up play. This team is dangerous partly because it has more experience returning than in previous years. Duke should remain one of the top 3 teams in the ACC this season and could be the pre-season favorate.
Florida State (13-5, 4)
Key losses
So F Kabengele – 14.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 1.7 bpg, 38% Three, #19
SR Wing Mann 10.3 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 2.8 apg, 44% threes, #24
SR C Koumadje 6.2 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1.6 bpg, #73
SR G Nichols 5.5 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 1.9 apg, #79
SR PF Cofer 7.4 ppg, 4.1 rpg, #92
SR G Savoy 5.4 ppg, #107
Key Returnees
Jr G Forrest – 5.4 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 3.9 apg, #53
So G Walker – 7.9 ppg, 1.9 rpg, #68
Fr Wing Gray – 3.3 ppg, 2.5 rpg, #108
Key Newcomers
SF Williams – 5*, Top 25
C Koprivica – 4*, Top 100
JUCO G Jack
JUCO G Evans
SF Nwokeji – 3*
Transfer – F Osborne (from Rice, 9 ppg, 6.5 rpg)
Grad Transfer – C Olejniczak (from Ole Miss, 5.3 ppg, 3.0 rpg)
FSU is largely likely stay right where there are next season. While they lose a large number of players they have recruited well for years and have a lot of Top 100 underclassmen and bring in a large FR class that includes 5-star SF Patrick Williams and 4-star center Balsa Koprivica. They also add former Rice FR Malik Osbourne who sat out last season. He avg 9 ppg, 6.5 rpg as a FR at Rice. They also added grad transfer 7’ Olejniczk from Ole Miss for additional depth. He avg 5.3 ppg, 3.0 rpg for Ole Miss. They have a number of players that redshirted last season because they were so deep. I expect them to continue to stay in the Top tier this season.
Georgia Tech (6-12, 10)
Key Losses
SR PF Gueye 8.1 ppg, 3.9 rpg, #66
So SG Haywood 3.7 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 2.0 apg, 1.3 spg, #96
Key Returnees
So PG Alvarado – 12.5 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 3.6 apg, 1.85:1 A:TO, 32% Three, #18
Jr C Banks – 11.4 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 2.6 bpg, #31
Fr G Devoe – 10.4 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 2.8 apg, 44% Three, #44
So F Wright – 6.1 ppg, 3.6 rpg, #93
Fr Wing Moore – 3.2 ppg, #104
Fr F Sjolund – 4.3 ppg, 36% Three, #121
Key Newcomers
Transfer – wing Usher (from USC, 8.6 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 37% Career Three)
Transfer – G Parham (from VMI, 21.4 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 3.5 apg, 39.7% Three)
Georgia Tech is a team I would expect to make a jump into the middle third of the conference from its 10th place finish. They had 2 SR and only one played a lot in ACC play and GT returns all 5 starters from its last 2 weeks of the season. While it currently has no impact FR coming in it has a former 4-star forward Usher transferring from USC and he avg 8.6 ppg and 3.7 rpg before transferring as a So and has made 37% of his threes at USC. They also have small, shooting PG Parham transferring from VMI who avg 21.4 ppg and shot 40% from three. Usher is seeking a waiver to play immediately, otherwise he will be available Dec 9. Parham is seeking a hardship waiver to play immediately. Parham was one of the best scorers and 3-pt shooters in college basketball last season. If Parham gets his waiver I could see this team anywhere from 6th to 8th. Without Parham it could be closer to 9th or 10th.
