A Thread to Rehash GT HC Comparisons

[MGTfan]

I think we are probably going to get wheels blown off by ND at this point. They are significantly better than us. However, our next 4 opponents after them are not. Not saying we should win all 4, but we should be able to compete. I’m much more interested in seeing how we finish out this season against those last 4 than how we play against ND. If we can be competitive in those last 4 games, regardless of outcome, Ill feel a lot better heading into next season.

 

[Vespidae]

You just gave us the new slogan: "He's Likable".

Here's a slice of reality. In the period 2011-2019, here's the average winning percentage for each team in ACC Coastal:

GT is not exactly lighting it up. We were an average team in an average division. No one in Coastal averages 8 wins a year.

 

[Vespidae]

Let me state that I am still hoping that CGC will take us to the proverbial next level. He certainly brings a lot of good things to the program: relentless recruiting, great marketing for today's players, obviously giving it a great effort in relation to time and exposure for our school. Their is a lot to like about the guy ! AND, I am not ready to give up on him yet. He is only in year 2 with a huge rebuild.
However, the problems I am seeing are on the trajectory of the rebuild. On offense we show glimpses of promise, but if an opposing team surprises us with their defensive play, we typically don't get it figured out until halftime. The defense has me really concerned. We have relatively experienced players still making freshman mistakes, IMO. Confusion, poor eye disciplne,poor tackling, etc. CGC is touted as a defensive genius, and I think he may be. But, he is the top guy now. He has a lot more on his plate.
For those of you not familiar with "The Peter Principle" it is simply stated as everyone will get promoted to the level of their incompetence. We have seen many examples of this in college football:

10 worst Power Five football head coach hires of past decade

Finding the right coach isn't easy.

247sports.com

I am literally ptaying that we have not made this mistake. I am not getting any younger and I want to see us get back in the national discussion, in a GOOD way. But we need to see some improvement this year. Maybe not even wins, but just better, cleaner, playing with evidence of preparation and disciplne. IF we get demolished by ND, I worry the wheels may start coming off.
Any comments ?

re GT, no legitimate coach wanted to come in and have to deal with the retooling of the team from the TO to a more typical system. I think Geoff will do it, but I also think his ceiling is 7-8 wins a year. He'll lose to Clemson and UGA every year and probably 2-3 others.

That said, I think he will get talent coming to GT. I also think it's the next coach who will benefit the most. The biggest fear for Geoff I have is that he turns off the fanbase, particularly those who buy season tix. I know we are not the audience for his schtick, but ... they do contribute the money and in the end, money matters.

 

[MacJacket]

I think we are probably going to get wheels blown off by ND at this point. They are significantly better than us. However, our next 4 opponents after them are not. Not saying we should win all 4, but we should be able to compete. I’m much more interested in seeing how we finish out this season against those last 4 than how we play against ND. If we can be competitive in those last 4 games, regardless of outcome, Ill feel a lot better heading into next season.

After clearing my head yesterday, I came to the same conclusion. We should be able to compete with Duke, NC State, Pitt, and UVA to start building towards next year.

 

[Sheboygan]

After clearing my head yesterday, I came to the same conclusion. We should be able to compete with Duke, NC State, Pitt, and UVA to start building towards next year.

That would be a positive trajectory. BUT, didn't we think we could be competitive with BC, too ?

 

[Sheboygan]

Maybe next year we can get a schedule similar to this:
FSU
BYE
UCF
BYE
SU
BYE
LU
BYE
CLEM
BYE
BC
BYE
ND
BYE................

 

[MacJacket]

That would be a positive trajectory. BUT, didn't we think we could be competitive with BC, too ?

Absolutely. I should have put a strong emphasis on the word "should". We are simply not good enough to dig ourselves into such deep holes if we expect to be competitive.

 

[whitegoldsphinx]

An addendum:

Obviously, the point that I left unsaid but probably shouldn't have is that a FURTHER option is that Collins will be banging out top 20 classes in the near future, and he's just getting rolling on recruiting, and once he's had 3 years of building relationships with kids he's going to start closing the deal on some EYE OPENING, like top 10 classes, and then it's Katy bar the door as stuff starts to steamroll, and 15 years from now, we're alll talking about "I can't believe anybody ever fell for the GT can't recruit BS" and "in hindsight, it was obvious how attractive a winning program, in the heart of the capital of the South, coupled with a degree that REALLY means something in the real world was, and it's just sort of weird that nobody figured out how to pitch GT correctly until collins came along" as you celebrate GT's 3rd NT in the past 7 years.

Better than any sexual fantasy i've ever had.

 

[year_of_the_swarm]

I really don't get what makes you guys think the option wasn't working. In it's last season at Georgia Tech, the team scored 63 points, 66 points, 49 points, 38 points, 41 points, 30 points... In half the games played it averaged 48 points per game. In the other half, it averaged 17 points per game. And in my opinion, things were only going to get better the next season. I am sorry, but you can't average damn near 50 points a game in half your games and make some claim that the offense doesn't work.

And look at Army THIS YEAR.... under Monken. They play mostly bad teams, but you have to remember, Army is probably the hardest job in college football. Even when Army plays a low-level school, they are at a talent disadvantage. 42, 37, 55, 28, 49, 10, and 14... Averaging 34 per game. Sure, they lost to Cincy by 14 points. Cincy is a top 10 football team. Also, Army is on its 4th string QB.. The defensive coordinator who is doing a great job at Army this year, WAS GEORGIA TECHS COORDINATOR! Would still be if they hired Monken.

In the original post I mentioned the depth chart that was coming... Do any of you guys have any doubt that Tobias Oliver would have been a 1,500 yard QB? He had nearly 900 yards and 12 touchdowns as a backup.

The other point I will make is regarding recruiting... Recruiting was fine. In his last 3 classes he signed:

Parker Braun, Kenny Cooper, Jahaziel Lee, Jalen Camp, Steve Dolphus, Dedrick Mills, Kaleb Oliver, Tariq Carpenter, Jordan Mason, Jerry Howard, Tre Swilling, Bruce-Jordan Swilling, Connor Hansen, Pressley Harvin, Adonicas Sanders, Juanyeh Thomas, Charlie Thomas, Zach Quinney, Wesley Wells, Tobias Oliver, etc.

Juanyeh Thomas was a freshman all-american... Parker Braun was an All-American... Pressley Harvin has been All-ACC multiple times... Tobias Oliver was going to be a 3 year starter at QB... They had plenty of AB's and BB's... Receivers were really good for our system.

In the 3-4 alignment that Nate Woody had in 2018 the linebackers were:

Charlie Thomas (freshman)
Quez Jackson (freshman)
David Curry (junior)
Tariq Carpenter (sophomore)

The corners were both Freshman as well (Tre Swilling)

That was a REALLY young defensive team that they could build and improve on... and they were 33rd in total defense nationally. Does anyone honestly believe they would drop to depths of college football just 1 and 2 years later?

This years team is 85th in total defense. The 2019 defense was the 2nd worst in the ACC, and had a really crap national ranking as well.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Let me state that I am still hoping that CGC will take us to the proverbial next level. He certainly brings a lot of good things to the program: relentless recruiting, great marketing for today's players, obviously giving it a great effort in relation to time and exposure for our school. Their is a lot to like about the guy ! AND, I am not ready to give up on him yet. He is only in year 2 with a huge rebuild.
However, the problems I am seeing are on the trajectory of the rebuild. On offense we show glimpses of promise, but if an opposing team surprises us with their defensive play, we typically don't get it figured out until halftime. The defense has me really concerned. We have relatively experienced players still making freshman mistakes, IMO. Confusion, poor eye disciplne,poor tackling, etc. CGC is touted as a defensive genius, and I think he may be. But, he is the top guy now. He has a lot more on his plate.
For those of you not familiar with "The Peter Principle" it is simply stated as everyone will get promoted to the level of their incompetence. We have seen many examples of this in college football:

10 worst Power Five football head coach hires of past decade

Finding the right coach isn't easy.

247sports.com

I am literally ptaying that we have not made this mistake. I am not getting any younger and I want to see us get back in the national discussion, in a GOOD way. But we need to see some improvement this year. Maybe not even wins, but just better, cleaner, playing with evidence of preparation and disciplne. IF we get demolished by ND, I worry the wheels may start coming off.
Any comments ?

Well Notre Dame just beat Pittsburgh 45-3, so I’m not sure that will be a useful measuring stick.

 

[ibeattetris]

The 2020 data isn’t out, but I’d expect Tech to be somewhere in the top 40 or so of teams that have played more than 1 game so far

The data is out for 2020, but not including BC yet. The data usually updates on Wednesday (so will include all the B1G games as well).

Coming in to BC offense was ranked 80 while including teams with no games. https://www.bcftoys.com/2020-fei/
I guess if you remove the PAC and B1G we'd be somewhere in the 50/60 range.

SP+ uses play by play data instead of drive by drive data. It has us currently ranked 60th in offense. This includes the BC game, and the PAC teams are on the list.

College football SP+ rankings after Week 8: How the Big Ten's return shakes things up

The Big Ten, led by No. 1 team Ohio State, has finally taken the field. What did a wild first weekend mean for the SP+ rankings?

www.espn.com

 

[4shotB]

I really don't get what makes you guys think the option wasn't working. In it's last season at Georgia Tech, the team scored 63 points, 66 points, 49 points, 38 points, 41 points, 30 points... In half the games played it averaged 48 points per game. In the other half, it averaged 17 points per game. And in my opinion, things were only going to get better the next season. I am sorry, but you can't average damn near 50 points a game in half your games and make some claim that the offense doesn't work.

OK, you have made a compelling case. Let's agree that it was working. What do you want us to do with data? Switch back to that system? Bring in a coach who runs that system. While I appreciate what you have done and love the articulation and enthusiasm, it it looking in the rearview mirror. At this point, so what if it was the best offense in the entire nation? Maybe it's just fun to discuss??

 

[ibeattetris]

OK, you have made a compelling case. Let's agree that it was working. What do you want us to do with data? Switch back to that system? Bring in a coach who runs that system. While I appreciate what you have done and love the articulation and enthusiasm, it it looking in the rearview mirror. At this point, so what if it was the best offense in the entire nation? Maybe it's just fun to discuss??

I agree with you. I guess the same questions apply to the people who keep trying to say it didn’t work

 

[4shotB]

I agree with you. I guess the same questions apply to the people who keep trying to say it didn’t work

I agree. The definition of insanity (modified for the internet) is repeating the same things ad infinitum in the hopes of changing someone else's opinion. I applaud the stamina in a weird sort of way but find it puzzling. At least the poster I responded to took the time to collect and organize his data in a thoughtful and rational manner.

 

[Pointer]

Nm

 

[takethepoints]

CPJ was an experiment. Even he said that.

Can the TO work in D1 today? No. Kids today come into a program wanting to max their social media. That is not happening at Tech under the TO.

I don’t think Tech has any illusion of being NC again. I think they will be very happy being a legit 8-4. And that’s why Geoff is here.

On the contrary, I think the spread option will work at any level. I say this because it is a system offense; if you have the pieces, it works. And the pieces don't have to be like the pieces used in shotgun spread offenses. If Pauls' time told us anything that was it.

The real problem he had was getting a DC who would a) turn out to know what he was doing and b) stay at Tech. He had two DCs that worked out - Kelly and Woody - but in both cases their time was limited. I found this a bit strange diuring his time here since he started as a DC himself; it isn't as if he didn't know what to do on that side of the ball. I understood better when Stansbury came in and we got a better picture of how the program had been starved for resources for so long.

Well, we took care of that and now we'll have to see if Collins and co. can benefit from it. Not much evidence of that so far, but it's early days. Maybe next year.

 

[smokey_wasp]

I really don't get what makes you guys think the option wasn't working. In it's last season at Georgia Tech, the team scored 63 points, 66 points, 49 points, 38 points, 41 points, 30 points... In half the games played it averaged 48 points per game. In the other half, it averaged 17 points per game. And in my opinion, things were only going to get better the next season. I am sorry, but you can't average damn near 50 points a game in half your games and make some claim that the offense doesn't work.

And look at Army THIS YEAR.... under Monken. They play mostly bad teams, but you have to remember, Army is probably the hardest job in college football. Even when Army plays a low-level school, they are at a talent disadvantage. 42, 37, 55, 28, 49, 10, and 14... Averaging 34 per game. Sure, they lost to Cincy by 14 points. Cincy is a top 10 football team. Also, Army is on its 4th string QB.. The defensive coordinator who is doing a great job at Army this year, WAS GEORGIA TECHS COORDINATOR! Would still be if they hired Monken.

In the original post I mentioned the depth chart that was coming... Do any of you guys have any doubt that Tobias Oliver would have been a 1,500 yard QB? He had nearly 900 yards and 12 touchdowns as a backup.

The other point I will make is regarding recruiting... Recruiting was fine. In his last 3 classes he signed:

Parker Braun, Kenny Cooper, Jahaziel Lee, Jalen Camp, Steve Dolphus, Dedrick Mills, Kaleb Oliver, Tariq Carpenter, Jordan Mason, Jerry Howard, Tre Swilling, Bruce-Jordan Swilling, Connor Hansen, Pressley Harvin, Adonicas Sanders, Juanyeh Thomas, Charlie Thomas, Zach Quinney, Wesley Wells, Tobias Oliver, etc.

Juanyeh Thomas was a freshman all-american... Parker Braun was an All-American... Pressley Harvin has been All-ACC multiple times... Tobias Oliver was going to be a 3 year starter at QB... They had plenty of AB's and BB's... Receivers were really good for our system.

In the 3-4 alignment that Nate Woody had in 2018 the linebackers were:

Charlie Thomas (freshman)
Quez Jackson (freshman)
David Curry (junior)
Tariq Carpenter (sophomore)

The corners were both Freshman as well (Tre Swilling)

That was a REALLY young defensive team that they could build and improve on... and they were 33rd in total defense nationally. Does anyone honestly believe they would drop to depths of college football just 1 and 2 years later?

This years team is 85th in total defense. The 2019 defense was the 2nd worst in the ACC, and had a really crap national ranking as well.

Wait. Lemme get this straight. The fact that we averaged 48 points in half our games means there was no problem, but the fact that we averaged 17 in the other half of our games means....nothing? This is called cherry picking. Sure, we scored 66 on a Louisville team that had given up on its head coach. But we were essentially shut out for 2 halves if you combine the Duke and Pitt games (Yes. Mighty Duke and Pitt, not just Clemson/UGA).

The rest of your post is speculation. Nobody knows how things would have turned out. Even if you were right, what difference, at this point, does it make? It ain't coming back and you're just gonna be miserable as a fan if that's your endgame here.

 

[GTRX7]

Here's a slice of reality. In the period 2011-2019, here's the average winning percentage for each team in ACC Coastal:

View attachment 9362

GT is not exactly lighting it up. We were an average team in an average division. No one in Coastal averages 8 wins a year.

To be fair, as a Tech fan, I don't anticipate we are going to be top-5 year in and year out. For me, what is more important than the decade "averages" is whether we were able to remain at least competitive every year (~.500), and did we have 3-4 years per decade where we were able to stand out/make real noise in the ACC/beat UGA/go to a power bowl, etc. If CGC can get to that level, I will be pretty satisfied. Above that, and I will be thrilled..

 

[takethepoints]

Here's a slice of reality. In the period 2011-2019, here's the average winning percentage for each team in ACC Coastal:

View attachment 9362

GT is not exactly lighting it up. We were an average team in an average division. No one in Coastal averages 8 wins a year.

Here's another. Tech won the Coastal in 2008 (tie), 2009, 2012, and 2014. We were second or tied for second in 2018, 2013, and 2011. Sooooo … for 7 of his 10 years at Tech Paul's teams either won the Coastal outright (4 times) or placed second (3 times). Makes things look a bit different, doesn't it? In those 7 years the Coastal was always contested between VT and Tech. It got sorta boring, actually.

Winning percentages don't tell you everything. And, btw, yours is wrong because you included 2019. Using 2011 - 2018 (you know, when Paul was coaching) Tech's winning percentage was 55%. Not fantastic, but not bad.

If Collins can get to these kinds of results (especially something like 2014), I'll be happy enough. But others here? Well …

 

[TheJuiceIsLoose]

Johnson's offense was still effective. It was just no longer effective enough to counter the problems we had on defense. It reached the point where we basically had to keep teams from scoring over 28 to win, and that is not really what you want when you build your entire program for a decade around one side of the ball. It's also not a winning formula when you haven't been able to field a good defense in pretty much the entire tenure.

Monken is a good coach and may or may not have had success here. But it would have been a bad career decision for him to do so. People ignored, and probably have now forgotten, that we lost a ton of production going into last year. We were something like 11th lowest in returning production, and that was coming off a 4 year stretch that saw two post season misses and a mediocre 7-6 team. He'd be walking into a polarized fanbase, seen as a continuation of the previous staff that had struggled toward the end, and would be inheriting a team losing a ton of production. Monken is better off not walking into that situation.Recruits

In CPJ's last year, when we lost to Dook, I'm talking bout Dook (Allen Iverson's voice), we had 5 or 6 4th down & 1 yd to go and Dook stopped us on all of them

I'm sure it was at least 4, but it might have been as many a 6 times we were stopped on 4th down

Those fond memories of the Option under CPJ just don't line up with the reality of what it truly was by the time he retired, and to make things worse, Recruits no longer cared about GT FB or CPJ

CPJ burning clock and milking the Game so that each Team only had 7-8 possessions doesn't mean we were closer to Clemson as a Program, it just means that we were guaranteed to lose and the score merely looked better than 73-7

Weaknesses on both LoS's makes it difficult for any Coordinator to call a solid game

For those folks blaming "coaching", that's the equivalent of trying to "coach" a Pitcher to get a fastball by Mike Trout or Mookie Betts, you have to have a high level of Talent for "coaching" to even enter the equation

As far a player discipline, I have no idea why we are so undisciplined and make so many Mental mistakes