a question for you GT hoops fans

[RamblinRed]

since my wife is out of town, I am watching my first BB game tonight in forever. Assuming we hold on, we will be .500 in the league! and yet, .500 more or less overall. What is going on here????. We have had some really good teams over the years, teams that went dancing, who were .500 (or less) in the ACC. Has the league declined? We were injured early? Is that a team that is a late bloomer? Was our OOC schedule brutal? I am intrigued and appreciate your insights. I'll hang up and listen.

in short the answer is yes to all of the above.
This year is the weakest the league has been in quite some time, but that doesn't mean its easy, almost the opposite. Unlike most of the power leagues this season, there aren't any easy victories. The #15 team right now is UNC at 5-13. #14 is Pitt at 6-13, Then Wake and Miami are both 6-12. Compare that to some of the other conferences. in the Big East you have 2-14 DePaul and 4-12 St. John's. in the Big 10 you have Nebraska and Northwestern both at 2-16 (and 7 wins overall). Big 12 has Kansas St at 2-14 and 9 wins overall. SEC has a 1-15 Vandy. Even the 'weaker' teams in the ACC aren't weak enough to give the middle tier teams easy wins.

We were missing players early. In particular, Jose Alvarado missed from the 2nd game of the season until the Hawaii trip. He is the best basketball player on the team. Jordan Usher was not eligible until after Dec 18th. Mike Devoe, the 2nd best player of the team, missed 3 games in Jan. That doesn't excuse some of the losses. But thinking losing Jose would have no negative effect on team performance is silly.

Pastner's team has definitely gotten better as the season has progressed and players have had more time to practice and play with each other. But it also helps that the ACC schedule was frontloaded so more of the tougher games were early on.

The OOC was not 'brutal', but it was the most difficult one GT has had in a very long time. At KenPom its OOC SOS is currently ranked #55. That may not sound like much, but realize that is the 7th toughest OOC SOS by a Power 6 conference team and the 2nd most difficult in the ACC behind UNC's. Most of the toughest are low and mid major programs who travel all over to play power 6 programs.

The other issue is this team until later in the season pretty much lost all the close games. If its current KenPom rating held it would be the highest of Pastner's tenure and the 3rd highest in the last 12 years (Behind Gregory's NIT team and Hewitt's last NCAA team).

Next year will be the last chance imo for Pastner to prove himself at GT. On paper he should return 7 of his 8 primary rotation players. in Conference play Jose and Mike both avg 35 mpg. Moses avg 32, James 31, Jordan 27. Off the bench Bubba avg 26, Cole and Moore 11. Only James is a Sr.
If he suffers no attrition among his rotation players we return 7 and then add in Sjolund who redshirted this season as well as 3 FR, Saba Gigiberia (7ft center), Jordan Meka (6'8 PF/C), Tristan Maxwell (6'2 shooting guard). While Gigberia is the highest rated of the newcomers my personal belief is that Maxwell is going to have the largest impact next season of the FR. He is the son of former NBA player Vernon 'Mad Max' Maxwell and while like Jose and Mike he is not a plus athlete, he is a crafty basketball player, especially on offense where he has been a really strong scorer at all 3 levels in HS. We've seen alot of 3-guard play later this season with Jose, Bubba and Mike. I think we are going to see even more next season with those 3 and Maxwell.

The other piece for next season is recruiting. Pastner will have at least 4 scholarships to give out. Who ultimately takes them? How highly regarded are they? The answer to those questions as well as if the team can get into the NCAA next season will likely determine whether Pastner gets a season 6.
IMO this year's team needed to show it is at least bubblee quality. I think late in the season we are starting to see that, but they lost too much early for it to matter. Next year it has to be an NCAA team, period. Otherwise imo it will be time to move on.

 

[MWBATL]

in short the answer is yes to all of the above.
This year is the weakest the league has been in quite some time, but that doesn't mean its easy, almost the opposite. Unlike most of the power leagues this season, there aren't any easy victories. The #15 team right now is UNC at 5-13. #14 is Pitt at 6-13, Then Wake and Miami are both 6-12. Compare that to some of the other conferences. in the Big East you have 2-14 DePaul and 4-12 St. John's. in the Big 10 you have Nebraska and Northwestern both at 2-16 (and 7 wins overall). Big 12 has Kansas St at 2-14 and 9 wins overall. SEC has a 1-15 Vandy. Even the 'weaker' teams in the ACC aren't weak enough to give the middle tier teams easy wins.

We were missing players early. In particular, Jose Alvarado missed from the 2nd game of the season until the Hawaii trip. He is the best basketball player on the team. Jordan Usher was not eligible until after Dec 18th. Mike Devoe, the 2nd best player of the team, missed 3 games in Jan. That doesn't excuse some of the losses. But thinking losing Jose would have no negative effect on team performance is silly.

Pastner's team has definitely gotten better as the season has progressed and players have had more time to practice and play with each other. But it also helps that the ACC schedule was frontloaded so more of the tougher games were early on.

The OOC was not 'brutal', but it was the most difficult one GT has had in a very long time. At KenPom its OOC SOS is currently ranked #55. That may not sound like much, but realize that is the 7th toughest OOC SOS by a Power 6 conference team and the 2nd most difficult in the ACC behind UNC's. Most of the toughest are low and mid major programs who travel all over to play power 6 programs.

The other issue is this team until later in the season pretty much lost all the close games. If its current KenPom rating held it would be the highest of Pastner's tenure and the 3rd highest in the last 12 years (Behind Gregory's NIT team and Hewitt's last NCAA team).

Next year will be the last chance imo for Pastner to prove himself at GT. On paper he should return 7 of his 8 primary rotation players. in Conference play Jose and Mike both avg 35 mpg. Moses avg 32, James 31, Jordan 27. Off the bench Bubba avg 26, Cole and Moore 11. Only James is a Sr.
If he suffers no attrition among his rotation players we return 7 and then add in Sjolund who redshirted this season as well as 3 FR, Saba Gigiberia (7ft center), Jordan Meka (6'8 PF/C), Tristan Maxwell (6'2 shooting guard). While Gigberia is the highest rated of the newcomers my personal belief is that Maxwell is going to have the largest impact next season of the FR. He is the son of former NBA player Vernon 'Mad Max' Maxwell and while like Jose and Mike he is not a plus athlete, he is a crafty basketball player, especially on offense where he has been a really strong scorer at all 3 levels in HS. We've seen alot of 3-guard play later this season with Jose, Bubba and Mike. I think we are going to see even more next season with those 3 and Maxwell.

The other piece for next season is recruiting. Pastner will have at least 4 scholarships to give out. Who ultimately takes them? How highly regarded are they? The answer to those questions as well as if the team can get into the NCAA next season will likely determine whether Pastner gets a season 6.
IMO this year's team needed to show it is at least bubblee quality. I think late in the season we are starting to see that, but they lost too much early for it to matter. Next year it has to be an NCAA team, period. Otherwise imo it will be time to move on.

@RamblinRed , are you as concerned about losing guys to the transfer portal as many of us seem to be?

 

[slugboy]

So, let me see if I can sum up the subtext:
1. We’re 9-9 in conference, and it’s been a long time since we were .500 or better in conference, but
2. We’re 15-14 overall, and you’d expect us to have a better overall record if we did so well in conference

So, what caused this?
TL;DR version: Slow start, taking too long to find ourselves, slightly down ACC, never completely finding ourselves, missing some players along the way, and needing to have one or two more contributors.

1. The ACC is down a little bit, I think somewhat in the middle. Wins against UNC and NCST and upsetting the number 11 team aren’t wins we could usually count on. We’ve done well in conference, and it’s not all the ACC being down. UNC is down, though. Miami isn’t as good as they’ve been in the past. Maybe if we’d only played an ACC schedule we’d be on the tournament bubble, but we also played out of conference and didn’t make as much hay there as we needed to.
2. Our pre-conference record wasn’t nearly as good as we needed it to be. Some was having players out like Alvarado, and not getting Usher eligible as soon as we would have liked hurt. Some of it is struggling to find an offensive system that works for the team; we didn’t end the season playing the same offense we started the season with. Some of it is lacking instinctive teamwork—that level of teamwork where players know where each other are going to cut and move and box out so you know where to pass and where you can find an open shot. Even towards the end of the season, we’ve had miscommunications between players. Some of it is a lack of available and harmonious bench depth. Players have gotten tired and run out of gas.
3. We got better as the season went along, but not “better enough”, so our record picked up but not enough to get on the bubble.
4. We started slow.
5. If we can pull out the last two games as wins, we still need two or three more wins than that. Arkansas, Syracuse x2, UGA, and some others are games we really needed to have a shot at the postseason. Having 18 wins before the ACC tournament (not counting Morehouse) and a couple of wins in the ACC tournament would have us looking good. Best we can do right now is get to 16 wins (not counting Morehouse). As a P5 team, you need to be one of the top 50-ish teams in the country to make the tournament because of some of the automatic qualifiers, and we’re not there right now.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[AE 87]

Down year in the ACC?

Every other team is better than UNC!

Seriously, though, Roy Williams is why you piss me off when you say recruiting is part of "coaching." Put that guy at a school that doesn't recruit itself, and he'd be unheard of.

 

[lauraee]

Thanks for the replies everyone. I don't know who is graduating or coming in as a FR but do y'all see this as being a tourney team next year?

That's only possible if we don't have to serve our post season ban. Not likely the ncaa will agree to overturn that ruling.

 

[RamblinRed]

@RamblinRed , are you as concerned about losing guys to the transfer portal as many of us seem to be?

I'll be more surprised if no one is in the portal than if someone is in the portal. There is an average of over 700 transfers per year in Div 1 basketball, that is an average of over 2 per team. I think you almost have to assume that you are going to have at least 1 player transfer out every year. You just hope it isn't a primary player.

Just have to wait and see. I have no info that anyone is actively looking to transfer out right now.

 

[YlJacket]

To tell you the truth I am surprised Sjolund didn't stay in the portal. We'll see if anyone else tests the waters.

What I am not totally sure of is how secure their ship is while they are in the portal. Does putting your name in the portal mean the school can cancel your ship for the next year automatically or does the player keep his ship for the next year while he shops around?

 

[BeeRBee]

To tell you the truth I am surprised Sjolund didn't stay in the portal. We'll see if anyone else tests the waters.

What I am not totally sure of is how secure their ship is while they are in the portal. Does putting your name in the portal mean the school can cancel your ship for the next year automatically or does the player keep his ship for the next year while he shops around?

https://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/di-saac-notification-transfer.pdf

The current school can reduce or cancel financial aid beginning the next semester. I hadn’t thought about it, but the current school is the one who enters the name in the portal so they have to be notified first.

 

[YlJacket]

Interesting - bet there is some gaming going on and a lot of entering the portal at the start of the semester as opposed to the end of the semester.
Also interesting that the school is not obligated to take you back. That will generate some tough discussions.

 

[Jmonty71]

The ACC is not of the same caliber that it has been in the past. There is a lot of variables to add to that. First has to be the fluid changes withing NCAA Basketball. The one and done rule, makes it where teams can be great one year and not so good, the next. I think the ACC is good and compared to other conferences' mid-level teams, we would win a lot of head to head games. However; for GT to make a bid for the big dance, we'd have to win the ACC championship. I think even a good run, would only solidify an entry to the NIT. I think there will be a good many ACC teams in the NIT, this year. Too many mid-major schools with better records.

 

[MWBATL]

To be honest, I don't think college basketball as a whole is as good as it wa sin the past. But the ACC has dropped a bit more than other P5 conferences this year, imho.