RonJohn
Helluva Engineer
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OK, then your analysis was incoherent. In discussing the 4* and 5* talent, you established a ratio of 36 of 3000. In discussing the 3* and below, you just used raw numbers. As a result, your argument ends up being an emotional appeal rather than a rational one.
I was going by what they say the ratings mean. If they say that the 4* and 5* guys are the ones with potential to be great players and the others are not, then it is definitely fair to assess if the guys they say are the ones with potential are the ones that succeed. It is also fair to assess if the ones that they say don't have a chance do succeed. 21 of the Pro-Bowl players are guys who ESPN said "These players are overmatched versus the better players in the nation. Their weaknesses will be exposed against top competition, but have the ability to develop into solid contributors at the non-BCS FBS level and could be a quality fit for the FCS level of play." In other words, they have ZERO chance to make the NFL, much less be an all-star player at the NFL level. That is what ESPN said about those guys. It was unequivocally wrong.
Furthermore, you add to this emotional appeal by referring to "50 players who made the Pro-Bowl were predicted to 'potentially' possess BCS caliber ability or who 'are likely non-BCS conference caliber prospects.' The last quote seems to come from ESPN's discussion of 60-69 (2* I think), but the first quote misrepresents what ESPN says regarding 70-79 (3* I think) which puts the weight on being BCS caliber with the potential of being "quality starter or all conference" at the high end and non-BCS at the low end. In other words, you rhetorically lumped all 50 into the very low 3* and below
The full quote for 3* is "These players show flashes of dominance, but not on a consistent basis -- especially when matched up against the top players in the country. Players closer to a 79 rating possess BCS-caliber ability and the potential to be a quality starter or all-conference player. Players closer to a 70 rating are likely non-BCS conference caliber prospects." The quote comes directly from 3*, not from 60-69. ESPN says a 3* could "potentially" be a quality starter, or "are likely non-BCS caliber prospects." 3* not lower. That is directly from ESPN, not some misrepresentation on my part. I actually lumped all of the zero star and 2* players in ESPN's description of 3*.
Anyway, if we look at your 10 year numbers with my low estimate of 2000/year, then the 3* and below would be 17,000 guys. In other words, the 36 of 3000 4* and 5* on which you focused is 1.2% and the 50 of 17,000 is 0.3%. A 4*/5* player is more than 4 times more likely to be a pro-bowler than a 3* and below who played FBS football.
I am not looking at statistics. I am looking at what ESPN says their rankings do. A 5* is an immediate impact player as a freshman and highly likely to leave school early. 10 years would have about 250-300 of them. 12 made the Pro-Bowl. A 4* will be an All-American candidate and a real "difference-maker". 24 of 2700 or so made it to the Pro-Bowl. A 3* could either not have P5 talent or might end up being considered for all-conference. 7 guys who ESPN said would be quality fits for FCS made the Pro-Bowl. 14 guys who ESPN didn't even think deserved to be on FCS teams made the Pro-Bowl. Look at statistics all you want. If a guy who ESPN said doesn't even qualify to play for an FCS team is on the Pro-Bowl, they were absolutely wrong in their assessment.
Again, I'm not saying that the ratings systems are perfect or that they hit on every guy. I'm saying that across the board, generally speaking, they're not bad.
I don't think the ratings systems are "bad". However, they don't do what fans believe they do, and they do not do what the ratings services themselves say they do. When they first make predictions, fans go crazy over who signed with who and who had the highest rated class. When a highly regarded recruit doesn't work out, or when a lowly regarded recruit turns into a super star, the same fans ignore the errors.