5 star guys versus 0 star guys

[OldJacketFan]

I see what you are saying now, I didn't get that from your first comment. But imo the guys rating players miss but they are right on just as much if not more than they are wrong. Prof is in the pudding, Alabama, Ohio state, Michigan, FSU, Clemson ect. And a lot of the times we see a guy that was a 2 or 3 star turn into a all star and we take that as the services being wrong, but at the time they could have been right and that kid might have hit a growth spurt, got stronger and better coaching ect but it still took them to their 3rd or 4th year to get to that all star level. I don't take that as the recruiting services being wrong. GT is a prime example, we get kids that take 3 and 4 years to get consistently good and end up being 4 or 5 star talent but at the time in highschool they were just that 2 or 3 star, difference is they trained hard, but most of all the coaching was way better.

In my opinion the factory schools are blessed with coaches who are very adept and have the support staff along with the reputation to attract the top talent. Those are, to a great extent, the no brainer kids. To me a recruiting guru doesn't have the time, knowledge or expertise to evaluate 16, 17 and 18 years olds with any degree of certainty except for the obvious no brainers. Ask @flea77 or @Coachbraun72 their opinion of the gurus from Scout, Rivals, 24/7 or eSECpn. I went through the process with my son, not to the same level as the Brauns or the Bryants but up to 1AA so I do have a background to have some idea of how it works. I enjoy the sites and what they put forth but as far a evaluating prospect I take MOST of what I see there with a huge grain of salt.

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

The star system isn't complete but it is certainly very flawed. I think most here can agree with this.

The difficulty lies in projecting a 17 year old down the road, when he will play against others his same size and speed. Has he reached his peak, will he grow, is he motivated, is he coachable, will he pay the price, etc? I have seen kids peak in the 8th and 9th grades.

 

[Whiskey_Clear]

Services are good at pointing out the obvious elite guys. Hard to argue that much despite the 5 star fail here or there. What they suck at is evaluating and ranking all the non elite guys. So they make for a good starting point in identifying the elite. Region all star selections are just as effective and hell....probably factor quite a bit into star computations. I'll take a coach eval from darn near any school over a service eval. The coaches don't publish and sell theirs though.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

What we're dealing with here is volume as much as anything else. At 'schools' like Alabama, 70% of their 4* and 5* players don't make it to the NFL. There is simply no way to play 60 players (80%+ of their recruits are 4* or higher). It doesn't mean those guys aren't good, they just aren't as good as the others on the team. You can't make the NFL if you don't ever play. The volume is what sets Alabama apart from someone like Miami, for example. Miami gets ~10 4* recruits each year. But they don't have the deep bench like Alabama. So when someone gets hurt or doesn't play well, they don't just swap players like a 'next served' number at a restaurant. So there is a trend with ratings that is generally accurate. But it is also highly skewed because of who sees the field. At other schools a lot of 3* players are who is on the field, and just the playing time experience for many of these talented guys is enough to enable them to grow their skills to make it to the next level.

 

[MWBATL]

I'm sure most of us already realize this, but the thing stars never measure (because they can't) is the young man's motivation and heart. That plays such a YUGE role in determining who winds up in the NFL (or NBA) and how well they develop there as well.

 

[danny daniel]

I'm sure most of us already realize this, but the thing stars never measure (because they can't) is the young man's motivation and heart. That plays such a YUGE role in determining who winds up in the NFL (or NBA) and how well they develop there as well.

Agree and another issue is physical maturity. My nephew was all everything in HS with plenty of heart and motivation, but he had a HS body until he was a Jr in college. He went from sitting the pine three years to All Conference his Sr year just due to growing into mansize. The talent was always there but it took the size and strength development to make him a 4 star performer at that next level.