22-23 Basketball Season- 9 Games in

[SecretAgentBuzz]

So, where do we stand after nine games? What do we know about our team? There is a long way to go in the season, but since we are about to start ACC play, I thought it might be a good time to do a deep dive into our team so far:

The most important statistic: 6 wins, 3 losses.
Losses: Iowa (RPI-20), Marquette (58), Utah (67)
Wins: UGA (153), N Alabama (252), Northeastern (266), N Illinois (314), GSt (320), Clayton St. (--)

GT current RPI: 88

Some key team statistics and (rank):
Effective FG%: 46.1 (rank-300!)
Opp Effective FG % 46.0 (59)
3 point %: 28.9 (320)
Opp Three Point %: 28.3 (38)
Opp FT %: 60.6 (9!)--this is our all-important free throw defense, a key to part of our winning strategy.
Opp Off Rebounds/Gm: 11.5/gm (348!)
Blocks/game: 4.6 (49)
TO/play: 12.8% (12)

Projected Record: Assuming we play at this same level throughout the season, our projected record is 16-15.

Player stats:
Highest offensive rating: Javon Franklin--135.9
Highest defensive rating: Javon Franklin--91.8 (lower is better)
Highest Effective FG%: Rodney Howard--58.1%
Players with Positive Offensive Box +/- : 4 (Franklin, Smith, Kelly, and Coleman)
Players with Positive Defensive Box +/- : 6 (Franklin, Smith, Howard, Moore, Terry, Sturdivant)
Players with Positive Overall Box +/- : 3 (Franklin:10.4, Smith: 6.7, Miles Kelly: 1.0)
-By the way, this is one of my favorite stats to look at, because it takes a lot into account and spits out a player's positive or negative contribution, almost like a WAR (WINS ABOVE REPLACEMENT) stat. In 20-21, we had 6 guys with positive ratings and last year, we only had two and a half (Saba was positive, but didn't really play much).

Team MVP so far: Javon Franklin. He was a really important piece, and he plays bigger than he is. He has been effective on both offense and defense. You could also make an argument for Kelly, since he single-handedly won us two games in the clutch.

Team LVP so far: Kyle Sturdivant. I hesitated to include this, but his game has not been good so far this season. With the number of minutes he has gotten, he has produces a B+/- of negative 3.3. I know he can play better, and I am rooting for him to turn it around.

OK, that is all I got. Discuss amongst yourselves.

Sources:
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/georgia-tech/2023.html
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/rankings/rpi/
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/georgia-tech-yellow-jackets/

 

[AUFC]

Your projected record puts us a smidge below .500 in ACC play which I think we all would have taken at the beginning of the season considering everybody projected us last. It signals a bright future if we can build around the Sophomore core the next 2 seasons and assist them with some more pieces. Plus we’re still waiting to see what jumps FPB, Martynov, Maxwell, and Meka make.

I’m hopeful Blue is immediate impact and we can see some more success in the transfer portal and I see a potential Tournament team the next 2 years. I don’t think sneaking an 11 or 12 seed is out of the question for this year yet either - the offense has gotten noticeably better as the rotations get actual game time together. If we continue to generate more and more open looks, you’ll see that team 3pt % rise and guys like Deebo/Terry play up to their potential. I really have liked Rodney’s progression the last 2 games too but Pastner must not like having him and Franklin on the floor at the same time.

 

[slugboy]

Where did you get the Box Plus/Minus? I only get four in the positive range, and Bagatskis has only played 7 minutes

Rk	Player	G	GS	MP	OWS	DWS	WS	WS/40		OBPM	DBPM	BPM
1	Freds Bagatskis	3	0	7	0.0	0.0	0.0	.194		16.6	2.8	19.4
2	Javon Franklin	9	5	229	0.9	0.6	1.4	.248		5.6	4.8	10.4
3	Deivon Smith	9	9	237	0.3	0.6	0.9	.150		3.3	3.4	6.7
4	Miles Kelly	9	4	264	0.5	0.4	0.9	.134		1.7	-0.7	1.0
5	Rodney Howard	8	4	101	0.3	0.2	0.4	.177		-1.3	0.7	-0.6
6	Dallan Coleman	9	9	267	0.5	0.3	0.8	.117		0.1	-0.8	-0.6
7	Jalon Moore	9	4	211	0.3	0.5	0.7	.142		-1.4	0.6	-0.7
8	Lance Terry	9	5	217	0.3	0.3	0.6	.119		-2.5	0.7	-1.8
9	Kyle Sturdivant	9	5	159	0.0	0.3	0.2	.062		-3.4	0.1	-3.3
10	Tristan Maxwell	7	0	85	-0.1	0.1	0.0	-.015		-7.0	-0.8	-7.8
11	Cyril Martynov	3	0	6	0.0	0.0	0.0	-.046		-6.0	-6.8	-12.7
12	Jordan Meka	3	0	9	0.0	0.0	0.0	-.092		-9.0	-8.0	-16.9
13	Brayden Daniels	3	0	3	0.0	0.0	0.0	-.060		-28.0	-1.3	-29.4
14	Coleman Boyd	3	0	3	-0.1	0.0	-0.1	-.753		-20.7	-9.7	-30.4
15	Jermontae Hill	3	0	3	0.0	0.0	0.0	-.299		-35.6	-2.7	-38.3

Provided by CBB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 12/9/2022.

Did you mean Win Shares?

Rk	Player	G	GS	MP	OWS	DWS	WS	WS/40		OBPM	DBPM	BPM
1	Javon Franklin	9	5	229	0.9	0.6	1.4	.248		5.6	4.8	10.4
2	Miles Kelly	9	4	264	0.5	0.4	0.9	.134		1.7	-0.7	1.0
3	Deivon Smith	9	9	237	0.3	0.6	0.9	.150		3.3	3.4	6.7
4	Dallan Coleman	9	9	267	0.5	0.3	0.8	.117		0.1	-0.8	-0.6
5	Jalon Moore	9	4	211	0.3	0.5	0.7	.142		-1.4	0.6	-0.7
6	Lance Terry	9	5	217	0.3	0.3	0.6	.119		-2.5	0.7	-1.8
7	Rodney Howard	8	4	101	0.3	0.2	0.4	.177		-1.3	0.7	-0.6
8	Kyle Sturdivant	9	5	159	0.0	0.3	0.2	.062		-3.4	0.1	-3.3
9	Freds Bagatskis	3	0	7	0.0	0.0	0.0	.194		16.6	2.8	19.4
10	Brayden Daniels	3	0	3	0.0	0.0	0.0	-.060		-28.0	-1.3	-29.4
11	Jermontae Hill	3	0	3	0.0	0.0	0.0	-.299		-35.6	-2.7	-38.3
12	Cyril Martynov	3	0	6	0.0	0.0	0.0	-.046		-6.0	-6.8	-12.7
13	Tristan Maxwell	7	0	85	-0.1	0.1	0.0	-.015		-7.0	-0.8	-7.8
14	Jordan Meka	3	0	9	0.0	0.0	0.0	-.092		-9.0	-8.0	-16.9
15	Coleman Boyd	3	0	3	-0.1	0.0	-0.1	-.753		-20.7	-9.7	-30.4

Provided by CBB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 12/9/2022.

 

[Techwood Relict]

Box Plus/Minus, Win Shares, it's all good

 

[SecretAgentBuzz]

Where did you get the Box Plus/Minus? I only get four in the positive range, and Bagatskis has only played 7 minutes

Rk	Player	G	GS	MP	OWS	DWS	WS	WS/40		OBPM	DBPM	BPM
1	Freds Bagatskis	3	0	7	0.0	0.0	0.0	.194		16.6	2.8	19.4
2	Javon Franklin	9	5	229	0.9	0.6	1.4	.248		5.6	4.8	10.4
3	Deivon Smith	9	9	237	0.3	0.6	0.9	.150		3.3	3.4	6.7
4	Miles Kelly	9	4	264	0.5	0.4	0.9	.134		1.7	-0.7	1.0
5	Rodney Howard	8	4	101	0.3	0.2	0.4	.177		-1.3	0.7	-0.6
6	Dallan Coleman	9	9	267	0.5	0.3	0.8	.117		0.1	-0.8	-0.6
7	Jalon Moore	9	4	211	0.3	0.5	0.7	.142		-1.4	0.6	-0.7
8	Lance Terry	9	5	217	0.3	0.3	0.6	.119		-2.5	0.7	-1.8
9	Kyle Sturdivant	9	5	159	0.0	0.3	0.2	.062		-3.4	0.1	-3.3
10	Tristan Maxwell	7	0	85	-0.1	0.1	0.0	-.015		-7.0	-0.8	-7.8
11	Cyril Martynov	3	0	6	0.0	0.0	0.0	-.046		-6.0	-6.8	-12.7
12	Jordan Meka	3	0	9	0.0	0.0	0.0	-.092		-9.0	-8.0	-16.9
13	Brayden Daniels	3	0	3	0.0	0.0	0.0	-.060		-28.0	-1.3	-29.4
14	Coleman Boyd	3	0	3	-0.1	0.0	-0.1	-.753		-20.7	-9.7	-30.4
15	Jermontae Hill	3	0	3	0.0	0.0	0.0	-.299		-35.6	-2.7	-38.3

Provided by CBB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 12/9/2022.

Did you mean Win Shares?

Rk	Player	G	GS	MP	OWS	DWS	WS	WS/40		OBPM	DBPM	BPM
1	Javon Franklin	9	5	229	0.9	0.6	1.4	.248		5.6	4.8	10.4
2	Miles Kelly	9	4	264	0.5	0.4	0.9	.134		1.7	-0.7	1.0
3	Deivon Smith	9	9	237	0.3	0.6	0.9	.150		3.3	3.4	6.7
4	Dallan Coleman	9	9	267	0.5	0.3	0.8	.117		0.1	-0.8	-0.6
5	Jalon Moore	9	4	211	0.3	0.5	0.7	.142		-1.4	0.6	-0.7
6	Lance Terry	9	5	217	0.3	0.3	0.6	.119		-2.5	0.7	-1.8
7	Rodney Howard	8	4	101	0.3	0.2	0.4	.177		-1.3	0.7	-0.6
8	Kyle Sturdivant	9	5	159	0.0	0.3	0.2	.062		-3.4	0.1	-3.3
9	Freds Bagatskis	3	0	7	0.0	0.0	0.0	.194		16.6	2.8	19.4
10	Brayden Daniels	3	0	3	0.0	0.0	0.0	-.060		-28.0	-1.3	-29.4
11	Jermontae Hill	3	0	3	0.0	0.0	0.0	-.299		-35.6	-2.7	-38.3
12	Cyril Martynov	3	0	6	0.0	0.0	0.0	-.046		-6.0	-6.8	-12.7
13	Tristan Maxwell	7	0	85	-0.1	0.1	0.0	-.015		-7.0	-0.8	-7.8
14	Jordan Meka	3	0	9	0.0	0.0	0.0	-.092		-9.0	-8.0	-16.9
15	Coleman Boyd	3	0	3	-0.1	0.0	-0.1	-.753		-20.7	-9.7	-30.4

Provided by CBB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 12/9/2022.

I got it from the sports reference site but it’s in your table, too—all the way to the right (BPM). I didn’t count Bagatskis since he has had so few minutes.

 

[slugboy]

I got it from the sports reference site but it’s in your table, too—all the way to the right (BPM). I didn’t count Bagatskis since he has had so few minutes.

I misread what you meant. You'd split the 4 positive offensive players, the six positive defensive players, and the three overall. I just focused on overall.

We obviously need to play Bagatskis more

 

[gdamian]

Your projected record puts us a smidge below .500 in ACC play which I think we all would have taken at the beginning of the season considering everybody projected us last. It signals a bright future if we can build around the Sophomore core the next 2 seasons and assist them with some more pieces. Plus we’re still waiting to see what jumps FPB, Martynov, Maxwell, and Meka make.

I’m hopeful Blue is immediate impact and we can see some more success in the transfer portal and I see a potential Tournament team the next 2 years. I don’t think sneaking an 11 or 12 seed is out of the question for this year yet either - the offense has gotten noticeably better as the rotations get actual game time together. If we continue to generate more and more open looks, you’ll see that team 3pt % rise and guys like Deebo/Terry play up to their potential. I really have liked Rodney’s progression the last 2 games too but Pastner must not like having him and Franklin on the floor at the same time.

To make the tourney this year, team shooting would have to rise and Rodney would have to make a big jump up

 

[AUFC]

To make the tourney this year, team shooting would have to rise and Rodney would have to make a big jump up

Agree. No bad losses so far though. Beat Alabama State and Florida Tech, go roughly 13-7 in ACC and we’re probably on the bubble. Easier said than done. We have as kind of an ACC schedule as we’re ever going to get though, for better or worse. A lot of Q1 opportunities on the road against teams floating around bottom of the 1-75 NET ranking.

 

[SecretAgentBuzz]

Pastner keeps talking about how we are a good shooting team...but the numbers certainly haven't showed it. If we can move that effective FG% up to a respectable number, we have a chance to make something of this season. If it is more of the same...mediocrity is really where we are headed. Of course, we always have our free throw defense to fall back on.

 

[wreckrod]

Pastner keeps talking about how we are a good shooting team...but the numbers certainly haven't showed it. If we can move that effective FG% up to a respectable number, we have a chance to make something of this season. If it is more of the same...mediocrity is really where we are headed. Of course, we always have our free throw defense to fall back on.

We look like a terrible shooting team from mid range and further, but close in driving to the hoop there’ve been a surprising number of guys who have been able to score.

Maybe it’s against mediocre/bad teams but especially against Ugag I was really surprised how often there were really pretty layups and tough contested inside shots that still went in. Maybe this is what Pastner is talking about?

 

[gte447f]

We look like a terrible shooting team from mid range and further, but close in driving to the hoop there’ve been a surprising number of guys who have been able to score.

Maybe it’s against mediocre/bad teams but especially against Ugag I was really surprised how often there were really pretty layups and tough contested inside shots that still went in. Maybe this is what Pastner is talking about?

No, Pastner thinks this team can actually shoot. We haven’t seen it so far. The missing piece is obviously Deebo Coleman. We have to get better shooting and more scoring out of him to see a good shooting team. We know he can shoot, so I’m not sure what is going on with him lately. His defense also needs to improve, but that may not be realistic. He may not ever be a good on ball defender. I have been pleasantly surprised by our scoring in the paint, but we need other outside shooters besides Kelly.

 

[forensicbuzz]

My opinion: shooting is not going to be our problem. We're a team of consistently good shooters. That will come; I'm confident it will. I'm concerned about rebounding. We suck on the offensive glass and give up way too many Off Reb. to our opponents. Some of those rebounds are hustle rebounds. Need to do better, and I'm not sure we will.

 

[Root4GT]

My opinion: shooting is not going to be our problem. We're a team of consistently good shooters. That will come; I'm confident it will. I'm concerned about rebounding. We suck on the offensive glass and give up way too many Off Reb. to our opponents. Some of those rebounds are hustle rebounds. Need to do better, and I'm not sure we will.

Curious as to what you basis fis or believing we are a good shooting team? We are 1/3rd of the way thru the season and have been a poor shooting team against lesser competition to date. I hope you are correct but there is no evidence I have seen to date for me to reach the same conclusion.

 

[SecretAgentBuzz]

My opinion: shooting is not going to be our problem. We're a team of consistently good shooters. That will come; I'm confident it will. I'm concerned about rebounding. We suck on the offensive glass and give up way too many Off Reb. to our opponents. Some of those rebounds are hustle rebounds. Need to do better, and I'm not sure we will.

When you say we "suck on the offensive glass," do you mean we suck at defensive rebounding? If so, yes, you are correct (see numbers above). Ironically, though, we have been pretty good ourselves on the offensive glass, with 10.6 ORbs per game (good for #66 in college basketball).

 

[lv20gt]

I think we have good shooters on the team. I think as a team we do very little to generate good looks so a lot of our looks are longer shots, contested shots, etc that lead to lower percentage. For some reason our offense seems designed to generate tough shots at the rim for our wings and guards and does almost nothing to try and generate outside looks.

 

[forensicbuzz]

Curious as to what you basis fis or believing we are a good shooting team? We are 1/3rd of the way thru the season and have been a poor shooting team against lesser competition to date. I hope you are correct but there is no evidence I have seen to date for me to reach the same conclusion.

Historically all of the backcourt players on this team have been good shooters.

 

[forensicbuzz]

When you say we "suck on the offensive glass," do you mean we suck at defensive rebounding? If so, yes, you are correct (see numbers above). Ironically, though, we have been pretty good ourselves on the offensive glass, with 10.6 ORbs per game (good for #66 in college basketball).

How many of our offensive possessions are 1 and done? When Franklin is in there, he scraps and sometimes gets 2-3 off. reb. on the same possession. I see way too many 1-and-done possessions for my liking. That being said, I haven't seen numbers, so that opinion could be swayed. It's my feel, especially when we've played the three teams that beat us.

 

[lv20gt]

How many of our offensive possessions are 1 and done? When Franklin is in there, he scraps and sometimes gets 2-3 off. reb. on the same possession. I see way too many 1-and-done possessions for my liking. That being said, I haven't seen numbers, so that opinion could be swayed. It's my feel, especially when we've played the three teams that beat us.

Our OReb % is good for 88th in the country which considering we're largely playing four guards/wings and a PF the majority of the time is about as good as you can expect

 

[g0lftime]

My opinion: shooting is not going to be our problem. We're a team of consistently good shooters. That will come; I'm confident it will. I'm concerned about rebounding. We suck on the offensive glass and give up way too many Off Reb. to our opponents. Some of those rebounds are hustle rebounds. Need to do better, and I'm not sure we will.

Tougher to rebound in a zone defense. Running a high post offense with your tallest player out front makes offensive rebounding even tougher. There just isn't any real quickness being shown on offense so far. The kids are working hard on defense. Our O sets are not so good.

 

[Root4GT]

Not much history. Coleman was good last year. Smith was bad. Sturdivant was meh and Kelly was good for a few games.

We really struggle getting good looks and simply are a bad defensive team.