2023-24 Predictions

[orientalnc]

I have been wondering how much offense we might have this year.

Here are our players who have DI experience and their minutes and points from last season (2022-23). For Claude, I used his only full season stats at Morehead State. I think someone will have fewer minutes, as some of the freshmen will get minutes. If everyone matches their 2022-23 totals, we should be OK. I know these data will not be the same for each player, but it gives us a look at the skill level of our players based on DI performance. Claude is the wild card here. He averaged almost 10 ppg as a freshman at Mass, the 15.4 ppg last year at WCU. He will not be a stranger to DI basketball.

I think it will be very interesting to see who gets minutes early in the season. That will tell us how well they showed up this fall in practice.

Kelly 32 mpg 14.4 ppg @ GT
Terry 30 mpg 10.0 ppg @ GT
Coleman 31 mpg 9.5 ppg @ GT
Sturdivant 24 mpg 8.6 ppg @ GT
Abram 21 mpg 8.0 ppg @ Miss
Reeves 19 mpg 8.5 ppg @ UF
Claude 21 mpg 9.5 ppg @ Morehead (2019-20)
Dowuona 10 mpg 1.7 ppg @ NCSU
Gapare 12 mpg 3.4 ppg @ Mass

Totals 200 mpg 74.1 ppg

 

[Northeast Stinger]

And will this team be more than the sum of its parts

OR

will it be a team with lots of interchangeable parts that relies on who has the hot hand?

 

[orientalnc]

CBS Sports SEC preview has Miss State 7th and uga 13th

SEC expert picks 2023-24: Predictions, projected order of finish, overrated and underrated teams, key players

Tennessee edges Texas A&M as our pick to win the SEC in what looks like will be a wide-open race to win the conference title

www.cbssports.com

 

[AUFC]

CBS Sports SEC preview has Miss State 7th and uga 13th

SEC expert picks 2023-24: Predictions, projected order of finish, overrated and underrated teams, key players

Tennessee edges Texas A&M as our pick to win the SEC in what looks like will be a wide-open race to win the conference title

www.cbssports.com

Missy St is also 34 in the AP Poll. Gonna be a big night in McCamish.

 

[orientalnc]

If Kenpom is correct this will be a sad season for us. Fortunately, he has been off by a good bit on these "Beginning of season" rankings in the past.

2022 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings

 

[slugboy]

If Kenpom is correct this will be a sad season for us. Fortunately, he has been off by a good bit on these "Beginning of season" rankings in the past.

2022 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings

This isn’t quite his “methodology” but he explains his preseason ratings a little bit at https://open.substack.com/pub/kenpom/p/preseason-ratings-are-live?

His ratings are:

(last 5 seasons)(last three conference seasons)(returning production)(transfers & incoming freshmen)

We’re weak on the first three factors. We’re ok on the transfers—but their stats aren’t enough to move the needle that much. We have to hope that the coaching staff unlocks some potential that hasn’t shown up in the box scores so far.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

This isn’t quite his “methodology” but he explains his preseason ratings a little bit at https://open.substack.com/pub/kenpom/p/preseason-ratings-are-live?

His ratings are:

(last 5 seasons)(last three conference seasons)(returning production)(transfers & incoming freshmen)

We’re weak on the first three factors. We’re ok on the transfers—but their stats aren’t enough to move the needle that much. We have to hope that the coaching staff unlocks some potential that hasn’t shown up in the box scores so far.

Yeah, that’s quite fair.

I tend to suffer from irrational expectations when it comes to Tech. For me, it is the hope that several things are happening simultaneously -getting needed pieces to the puzzle through transfers, good coaching philosophy for the particular players we have retained and picked up, overall improvement in team chemistry, all leading to over-all total quality being greater than the sum of the parts. Nothing measurable or objective in this outlook.

So Tech being low rated is appropriate and maybe even a good thing until team can prove itself.

 

[slugboy]

Yeah, that’s quite fair.

I tend to suffer from irrational expectations when it comes to Tech. For me, it is the hope that several things are happening simultaneously -getting needed pieces to the puzzle through transfers, good coaching philosophy for the particular players we have retained and picked up, overall improvement in team chemistry, all leading to over-all total quality being greater than the sum of the parts. Nothing measurable or objective in this outlook.

So Tech being low rated is appropriate and maybe even a good thing until team can prove itself.

Haslametrics put their own forecast for GT out for 2023-24, and I guess you gotta say something:

Despite what their win percentage might indicate, Georgia Tech is a good team that can cause more than enough trouble for most opponents. They have a record of 0-0 and are ranked 81st overall (out of 362) in the latest Haslametrics ratings. Of the 15 schools in the ACC (average ranking 71.4), they're currently ranked as our #10 team in the conference.

 

[OG-T]

Haslametrics forecasts our reg season at 12-17. I’ll take the over on that.

 

[Connell62]

Haslametrics forecasts our reg season at 12-17. I’ll take the over on that.

OG - Love that ticket (avatar)... That would be one hellva story!

I'm with you.. I will take over 12 wins for the max.

 

[YlJacket]

Less than positive pre season projections don't surprise me given our past performance.
Mine is middle of the pack ACC bubble type team with some upside. That would make me happy - especially if you can see some talent in the newcomers/young uns.

 

[Jack]

Less than positive pre season projections don't surprise me given our past performance.
Mine is middle of the pack ACC bubble type team with some upside. That would make me happy - especially if you can see some talent in the newcomers/young uns.

My optimism is that we win some games we were not supposed to win.

 

[YlJacket]

My optimism is that we win some games we were not supposed to win.

By the preseason prognostications that would be almost all of them

 

[g0lftime]

The success of the team this season is just so unknown at this point. New coaches and so many player changes. Without any games to judge from, I am just going into the season with curiosity more than anything. There is lots of potential.

 

[orientalnc]

The success of the team this season is just so unknown at this point. New coaches and so many player changes. Without any games to judge from, I am just going into the season with curiosity more than anything. There is lots of potential.

So, we will have a serendipitous season and enjoy our trip to the tournament. Yay!

 

[orientalnc]

When players and coaches start talking about Freshman players having a big impact on the team it gets your attention. I have pretty much ignored the Freshmen when thinking about which players will get minutes this season. When you have 8-9 veteran players with plenty of ability you don't usually consider young guys making an impact unless they were 5* guys during high school. So, I am beginning to wonder about Ndongo. CDS wanted everyone to know how to pronounce his name and Kelly made a point to talk about him. Hmm...

 

[57jacket]

Kyle Sturdivant intent on being Georgia Tech’s leader

"As one of the veterans, this is our last go-around, so we want to go out the right way.”

www.ajc.com

 

[Northeast Stinger]

When players and coaches start talking about Freshman players having a big impact on the team it gets your attention. I have pretty much ignored the Freshmen when thinking about which players will get minutes this season. When you have 8-9 veteran players with plenty of ability you don't usually consider young guys making an impact unless they were 5* guys during high school. So, I am beginning to wonder about Ndongo. CDS wanted everyone to know how to pronounce his name and Kelly made a point to talk about him. Hmm...

Curiouser and curiouser for those of us going down the rabbit hole.

 

[lv20gt]

When players and coaches start talking about Freshman players having a big impact on the team it gets your attention. I have pretty much ignored the Freshmen when thinking about which players will get minutes this season. When you have 8-9 veteran players with plenty of ability you don't usually consider young guys making an impact unless they were 5* guys during high school. So, I am beginning to wonder about Ndongo. CDS wanted everyone to know how to pronounce his name and Kelly made a point to talk about him. Hmm...

It really shouldn't be that surprising. Our back court has lots of options but our front court is a 6-7 Claude who is unproven at the ACC level (good numbers last year at WCU though), and transfers Gapare and Dowuona that were less than impressive at their previous stops. Ndongo is our highest rated recruit and coming in a spot of our biggest need.

We have a good handful of veteran players, although I think it's stretching to say 8 or 9, but most of those are back court players who Ndongo isn't really going to be competing with.

 

[orientalnc]

It really shouldn't be that surprising. Our back court has lots of options but our front court is a 6-7 Claude who is unproven at the ACC level (good numbers last year at WCU though), and transfers Gapare and Dowuona that were less than impressive at their previous stops. Ndongo is our highest rated recruit and coming in a spot of our biggest need.

We have a good handful of veteran players, although I think it's stretching to say 8 or 9, but most of those are back court players who Ndongo isn't really going to be competing with.

I agree, but we're you expecting much from him this year?