2023-24 Predictions

[RamblinCharger]

I'm in wait and see mode. I think Pastner did pretty well some years without a lot of talent, which is on him and his staff for lack of recruiting. We have more talent now, but I'm not sure how much more. It is definitely a deeper team, but who knows if we have any elite players outside of Kelly. We are probably middle of the pack talent wise in the ACC I would think. I think having a winning record and making the NIT would be a great first year, getting 20 wins or more would be a fantastic year. We need more elite talent and I think CDS can get that talent, which is something I don't think our previous two coaches could do, so that is a huge plus.

 

[MtnWasp]

I'm in wait and see mode.

This.

Based on what can we make predictions? Out of 13 scholarship spots from last year's team, we return 4 guys. The roster has incurred a massive turnover. And a new staff is led by a coach who was last an NBA assistant. How will we play? I am full of questions with absolutely no opinions.

The one BIG question we all are eager to learn about any new coach: can he optimize the production of the talent he has?

I'll cut and paste some more specific questions from another thread:

1. How will the returning players produce under the new staff? The team was actually playing well at the end of last season (7-3 in the last ten games, all in the ACC). A lot of that was due to Franklin's spirited play in the middle, but the returning players also were playing well. Kelly found his second wind and was scoring (19.75ppg in the last eight games, his lowest point total being 12 points in those eight games), Lance Terry averaged 13.45ppg in his last 11 games, Sturdivant averaged 12.58 ppg in the last 12 games, and Coleman averaged 9.9 ppg in the last ten games and was finally starting to dig-in defensively and at least try to hit the boards.

2. Can Dowuona be an impact defender playing starter's minutes? Maybe the single biggest achilles heel of the last two teams was post defense. Pastner went all-in with Rodney Howard and Howard wasn't even good enough to play part time minutes. Can the transfer provide adequate rim protection? Can Claude & Dowuona rebound adequately? I'll edit to add that given CDS's quotes from today, does it look like Ndongo is ready to compete for time at the 5 or is he strictly a 4?

3. Can transfers Reeves and Claude score? Claude has the mindset to score in the paint. Can he do it in the ACC? Reeves has the tools but never put them together enough to be a full time starter at UF. Can the new staff find a way to realize his potential?

4. How good is Amare Abram? Is he ready to be a reliable double digit scorer in year two or does he need more seasoning?

4. Are any of the Freshmen (and Gapare) ready enough to show us anything in year one? They can help likely help on the boards, but then an we score when they are in?

Between veterans Kelly, Terry, Sturdivant and Claude, I think we just may have enough scoring. Claude is key because we need at least a threat in the paint. If any of Abram, Coleman or Reeves are ready to punch through to provide a counter-punch to Kelly, then that will really help. Then the pivotal issue will be post defense and rebounding. When we have the guys who can score on the court, can we defend and rebound?

I'll edit to add based on coache's first press conference quotes: if the four players he identified as key: Kelly, Abram, Terry and Ndongo: could that be 4 of the starting 5? Abram at the point, Terry at the 2, Kelly at the 3 and Ndongo at the 4 or 5? Who would be the other starter?

 

[D-man44]

 

[yjfan]

im predicting 31-0

 

[orientalnc]

1. How will the returning players produce under the new staff? The team was actually playing well at the end of last season (7-3 in the last ten games, all in the ACC). A lot of that was due to Franklin's spirited play in the middle, but the returning players also were playing well. Kelly found his second wind and was scoring (19.75ppg in the last eight games, his lowest point total being 12 points in those eight games), Lance Terry averaged 13.45ppg in his last 11 games, Sturdivant averaged 12.58 ppg in the last 12 games, and Coleman averaged 9.9 ppg in the last ten games and was finally starting to dig-in defensively and at least try to hit the boards.

While I do not think these guys will be better performers under CDS than under Pastner, I don't believe it's fair to assume they will be worse. Let's hope they are learning to be D1 basketball players.

2. Can Dowuona be an impact defender playing starter's minutes? Maybe the single biggest achilles heel of the last two teams was post defense. Pastner went all-in with Rodney Howard and Howard wasn't even good enough to play part time minutes. Can the transfer provide adequate rim protection? Can Claude & Dowuona rebound adequately? I'll edit to add that given CDS's quotes from today, does it look like Ndongo is ready to compete for time at the 5 or is he strictly a 4?

This assumes Dowuona is the answer at the 5. I am not sure that's the case. It could be that this spot on the court will be by committee. I might be OK with that if the other four spots are solid. Whatever CDS said about Ndongo, he is a freshman. College hoops is physically very different than high school.

3. Can transfers Reeves and Claude score? Claude has the mindset to score in the paint. Can he do it in the ACC? Reeves has the tools but never put them together enough to be a full time starter at UF. Can the new staff find a way to realize his potential?

Great points. I agree. I am more optimistic than pessimistic, but these are still a huge questions.

I think it's too early to worry about starters. Assuming your four are correct, the fifth could be any one of a number of players and we would still be OK. I still rely on CDS's comments earlier that he wants to play four out and is OK with two PGs on the floor together. We may have to just wait & see.

 

[jbix80]

Per KQ X

 

[AUFC]

One thing to note: that schedule above is missing our game against Penn State for Holiday Hoopsgiving at State Farm Arena on December 17.

 

[jbix80]

One thing to note: that schedule above is missing our game against Penn State for Holiday Hoopsgiving at State Farm Arena on December 17.

You are correct. So is the one Tech put out on Twitter (X) above as well. Weird.

 

[orientalnc]

You are correct. So is the one Tech put out on Twitter (X) above as well. Weird.

The Hoopsgiving schedule online does not have that game. Clearly a mistake somewhere.

 

[AUFC]

The Hoopsgiving schedule online does not have that game. Clearly a mistake somewhere.

https://holidayhoopsgiving.com/college-pre-sale/ this still shows us/Penn State and USF/Loyola-Chicago on December 17th. Appears to be an open date on the State Farm Arena website and the Ticketmaster link is unavailable unlike the December 9th set of games.

 

[orientalnc]

https://holidayhoopsgiving.com/college-pre-sale/ this still shows us/Penn State and USF/Loyola-Chicago on December 17th. Appears to be an open date on the State Farm Arena website and the Ticketmaster link is unavailable unlike the December 9th set of games.

Thanks, I missed that game.

 

[MWBATL]

Matchups matter more now than ever in College BB. The game has evolved where the traditional big man that plays within 5 feet of the basket is dying in American basketball. Just look at the NBA and try and find one Big Man that is elite. The last 5 NBA MVPs are all big men who were not Americans. The play away from the basket bigman has worked it's way thru college and HS.

I freely admit to NOT being a basketball guru. BUT, didn't the US team that just failed to medal get criticized precisely because their opponents had legit big centers, and the USA did not? That would seem to suggest that the traditional big man in the middle is still the best way to go, no?

 

[lv20gt]

I think we start slow which SHOULD BE EXPECTED because of all the new faces. It will take a bit of time for this team to put it all together but like last season I think we start picking up some W's midway through conference play. I think we win about 17-18 games and possibly make the NIT.

I don't completely agree. Yes, we have new faces but most teams will so it will be a more even playing field than if the same thing happened in the past. Also most of the ball handling a team running should be handled by a back court that has a lot of experience (2 5th year senior guards and 2 junior wings who have all played at least 1 year together). So while it may take some time for the new players to adjust, the returning core in the back court should be able prevent to slow of a start.

 

[Ramble1885]

PREDICTION
Georgia Southern: W (1-0)
Howard: W (2-0)
UMass Lowell: W (3-0)
at Cincinnati: L (3-1)
Mississippi State: L (3-2)
Duke: L (3-3, 0-1)
at Georgia: W (4-3)
Alabama A&M: W (5-3)
vs UMass: W (6-3)
vs Portland/Hawaii: W (7-3)
at Florida State: L (7-4, 0-2)
Boston College: W (8-4, 1-2)
Notre Dame: W (9-4, 2-2)
at Duke: L (9-5, 2-3)
at Clemson: L (9-6, 2-4)
Virginia: L (9-7, 2-5)
Pittsburgh: W (10-7, 3-5)
at Virginia Tech: W (11-7, 4-5)
North Carolina: L (11-8, 4-6)
at NC State: L (11-9, 4-7)
Wake Forest: W (12-9, 5-7)
at Louisville: W (13-9, 6-7)
at Notre Dame: W (14-9, 7-7)
Syracuse: W (15-9, 8-7)
Clemson: L (15-10, 8-8)
at Miami: L (15-11, 8-9)
Florida State: W (16-11, 9-9)
at Wake Forest: L (16-12, 9-10)
at Virginia: L (16-13, 9-11)

 

[Northeast Stinger]

PREDICTION
Georgia Southern: W (1-0)
Howard: W (2-0)
UMass Lowell: W (3-0)
at Cincinnati: L (3-1)
Mississippi State: L (3-2)
Duke: L (3-3, 0-1)
at Georgia: W (4-3)
Alabama A&M: W (5-3)
vs UMass: W (6-3)
vs Portland/Hawaii: W (7-3)
at Florida State: L (7-4, 0-2)
Boston College: W (8-4, 1-2)
Notre Dame: W (9-4, 2-2)
at Duke: L (9-5, 2-3)
at Clemson: L (9-6, 2-4)
Virginia: L (9-7, 2-5)
Pittsburgh: W (10-7, 3-5)
at Virginia Tech: W (11-7, 4-5)
North Carolina: L (11-8, 4-6)
at NC State: L (11-9, 4-7)
Wake Forest: W (12-9, 5-7)
at Louisville: W (13-9, 6-7)
at Notre Dame: W (14-9, 7-7)
Syracuse: W (15-9, 8-7)
Clemson: L (15-10, 8-8)
at Miami: L (15-11, 8-9)
Florida State: W (16-11, 9-9)
at Wake Forest: L (16-12, 9-10)
at Virginia: L (16-13, 9-11)

Well done. Of course, it won’t play out exactly like that, they never do, but that is a very clear eyed and “objective” handicap of the season.

 

[RamblinCharger]

PREDICTION
Georgia Southern: W (1-0)
Howard: W (2-0)
UMass Lowell: W (3-0)
at Cincinnati: L (3-1)
Mississippi State: L (3-2)
Duke: L (3-3, 0-1)
at Georgia: W (4-3)
Alabama A&M: W (5-3)
vs UMass: W (6-3)
vs Portland/Hawaii: W (7-3)
at Florida State: L (7-4, 0-2)
Boston College: W (8-4, 1-2)
Notre Dame: W (9-4, 2-2)
at Duke: L (9-5, 2-3)
at Clemson: L (9-6, 2-4)
Virginia: L (9-7, 2-5)
Pittsburgh: W (10-7, 3-5)
at Virginia Tech: W (11-7, 4-5)
North Carolina: L (11-8, 4-6)
at NC State: L (11-9, 4-7)
Wake Forest: W (12-9, 5-7)
at Louisville: W (13-9, 6-7)
at Notre Dame: W (14-9, 7-7)
Syracuse: W (15-9, 8-7)
Clemson: L (15-10, 8-8)
at Miami: L (15-11, 8-9)
Florida State: W (16-11, 9-9)
at Wake Forest: L (16-12, 9-10)
at Virginia: L (16-13, 9-11)

I was looking through the schedule earlier and came to a similar conclusion. If we can get 1-2 more wins than this I think that would be a successful first season.

 

[AUFC]

I freely admit to NOT being a basketball guru. BUT, didn't the US team that just failed to medal get criticized precisely because their opponents had legit big centers, and the USA did not? That would seem to suggest that the traditional big man in the middle is still the best way to go, no?

Basketball is an interesting sport because all the leagues are stylistically different. Scoring in international basketball is different from NBA is different from NCAAM is different from NCAAW, etc. No style is more right or wrong. In NCAAM which plays pretty slowly, you definitely can still win with a traditional big. The last 2 players of the year were traditional post players. I'd hesitate to say traditional post men are a dying breed in college hoops but the idea of a big who can shoot the 3 ball and create his own shot off the dribble is definitely becoming more popular at the same time. A guy like Zach Edey stands no chance in the NBA.

I've heard rumors of the shot clock dropping to 24 seconds which would almost definitely change the way NCAAM would play (for the worse IMO, but that's a point of contention).

 

[orientalnc]

PREDICTION
Georgia Southern: W (1-0)
Howard: W (2-0)
UMass Lowell: W (3-0)
at Cincinnati: L (3-1) If we think we are an NIT team this year, we need to win this game. The Bearcats are projected no better than the lower half of the B12
Mississippi State: L (3-2) This could be a win at home.
Duke: L (3-3, 0-1)
at Georgia: W (4-3)
Alabama A&M: W (5-3)
vs UMass: W (6-3)
vs Portland/Hawaii: W (7-3)
at Florida State: L (7-4, 0-2) This is where the team needs to be coming together. A win on the road would be huge.
Boston College: W (8-4, 1-2)
Notre Dame: W (9-4, 2-2)
at Duke: L (9-5, 2-3)
at Clemson: L (9-6, 2-4)
Virginia: L (9-7, 2-5)
Pittsburgh: W (10-7, 3-5)
at Virginia Tech: W (11-7, 4-5)
North Carolina: L (11-8, 4-6)
at NC State: L (11-9, 4-7)
Wake Forest: W (12-9, 5-7)
at Louisville: W (13-9, 6-7)
at Notre Dame: W (14-9, 7-7)
Syracuse: W (15-9, 8-7)
Clemson: L (15-10, 8-8)
at Miami: L (15-11, 8-9)
Florida State: W (16-11, 9-9)
at Wake Forest: L (16-12, 9-10) I think we will be a post season team by this point and win this game.
at Virginia: L (16-13, 9-11)

The Penn State game is missing on the ramblinwreck.com schedule. Assuming we play that game, it's a win.

I like your picks, with the possible exceptions noted above.

 

[D-man44]

someone agrees with me!

 

[AUFC]

Just booked my Cincy flights and accommodations. Anybody doing any away days? Also has anybody ever succeeded in getting away ticket allotment from GTAA for basketball or is it reserved for family and megadonors?