2022 Pitching

[GTNavyNuke]

BLUF: A bunch of guys on this year’s roster who would otherwise be eligible to return aren’t going to be on the probable 40 man roster next year. And looking ahead to 2023, the rosters should be back to the normal 35 man roster.

We’ve talked about pitching being our weak link this year. Even though I was wrong in assuming that quantity of pitchers (~23) this year would yield quality, I remain optimistic for 2022.

We have a bunch of great pitchers coming in the 2021 recruiting class (@eokerholm hit this at https://gtswarm.com/threads/ncaa-baseball-tournament.23221/reply?quote=803884 ) and hopefully getting Grenkoski pitching and Xander Stephens back from TJ!

First a recap of where we are historically in pitching (worst of the last decade) to understand where we are going.
2021 ERA 5.76 184th NCAA and 13th ACC – 23 pitchers on roster
2020 ERA not statistically comparable with shortened season
2019 ERA 4.46, 8th ACC. BC (Before Covid) – 17 pitchers on roster
2018 ERA 4.95 – 17 pitchers on roster
2017 ERA 5.36 - 18 pitchers on roster
2016 ERA 4.73 – 18 pitchers on roster
2015 ERA 4.83
2014 ERA 3.35 (14 pitchers on roster – Buck Farmer, Sam Clay, Josh Heddinger, Dusty Isaacs, Jonathon King, Cole Pitts, Jonathon Roberts, Joe Wiseman)
2013 ERA 4.35
2012 ERA 4.42

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Data. Yeah, it’s intricate but reality is. I looked at the following things in this order

• When eligible to be drafted. That is either 3 years playing time or 21 years old by end of draft commitment period.
• Years of eligibility remaining. Got hard since 2020 was a COVID pass year and has led to a large stockpiling of players. Also I assumed (correct me if I’m wrong), but a grad only has one year eligibility.
• Looking at the above and pitcher playing time this year, whether the pitcher *should* want to return.
• Whether a returning pitcher would return

Assumptions:

• With 40 person 2022 roster limit likely, the 5 person reduction will likely come from the pitching position where we have about 23 pitchers (not counting Wilhite or Grenkoski).
• So that leaves 18 pitching slots in 2022
• We have 7 2021 pitchers in this recruiting class. (Again https://gtswarm.com/threads/ncaa-baseball-tournament.23221/reply?quote=803884 for discussion of quality)
• I’m assuming that 1 either gets drafted and goes, is injured or decommits.
• Cody Carwile LHP
• Cam Clines RHP
• Carter Daniels RHP
• Aeden Finateri RHP
• Camron Hill LHP
• Logan McGuire RHP
• Christian Okerholm RHP
• So that leaves 6 for the 18 slots or only 12 remaining.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

• So we have 12 slots for existing pitchers and 23 existing pitchers.
  • First I take out 5 current pitchers who shouldn’t be counted to 12 slots.
  • Finley will be out from his recent TJ surgery and not on roster.
  • I think Brant is the only one drafted high enough to leave for draft reasons. There is a massive surplus of talent available for the draft since there were only 5 rounds last year and the high school supply continued while the college players were given a free year.
  • I’m not counting Grenkoski who hopefully will pitch but is on the roster for his bat and fielding.
• 
• Then I see 11 who are Most Likely to be on the roster next year.
  • I would use “Above The Line” but that concept doesn’t hold a lot of meaning for rosters which are true commitments.
  • A big wild card in here is the grads (Archer, Crawford, Chapman and Mannelly) and whether they want to stop playing baseball, try the minors without being drafted or transfer. (I think for baseball there is no time limit currently for transferring but starting in 2022, spring sport athletes must announce by July 1st for the next season.) I’m assuming they are gong to come back based on how they have played this year.
• 
• Finally, here are 8 guys for the last 1 slot if all the grads come back or 5 slots if none of the grads come back.
  

 

[GTNavyNuke]

And here's the total listing:

 

[CINCYMETJACKET]

BLUF: A bunch of guys on this year’s roster who would otherwise be eligible to return aren’t going to be on the probable 40 man roster next year. And looking ahead to 2023, the rosters should be back to the normal 35 man roster.

We’ve talked about pitching being our weak link this year. Even though I was wrong in assuming that quantity of pitchers (~23) this year would yield quality, I remain optimistic for 2022.

We have a bunch of great pitchers coming in the 2021 recruiting class (@eokerholm hit this at https://gtswarm.com/threads/ncaa-baseball-tournament.23221/reply?quote=803884 ) and hopefully getting Grenkoski pitching and Xander Stephens back from TJ!

First a recap of where we are historically in pitching (worst of the last decade) to understand where we are going.
2021 ERA 5.76 184th NCAA and 13th ACC – 23 pitchers on roster
2020 ERA not statistically comparable with shortened season
2019 ERA 4.46, 8th ACC. BC (Before Covid) – 17 pitchers on roster
2018 ERA 4.95 – 17 pitchers on roster
2017 ERA 5.36 - 18 pitchers on roster
2016 ERA 4.73 – 18 pitchers on roster
2015 ERA 4.83
2014 ERA 3.35 (14 pitchers on roster – Buck Farmer, Sam Clay, Josh Heddinger, Dusty Isaacs, Jonathon King, Cole Pitts, Jonathon Roberts, Joe Wiseman)
2013 ERA 4.35
2012 ERA 4.42

Nuke, I'd check your 2014 pitchers. Farmer was no longer on the roster, unless I'm mistaken. I'd include Devin Stanton, Ben Parr, Matthew Grimes, DeAndre Smelter (who was a better football receiver than he was a baseball pitcher @ Tech due to arm issues), Alex Cruz (who was dismissed from the team because of Marijuana, from what I've heard) but was a great bullpen arm for us, and Zac Ryan, who closed for us for a couple of years.

 

[ramblinwreckguru]

So....assuming we split the difference on grad students returning, which 5 pitchers do we cut?

 

[Buzzbomb]

Speaking of Sam Clay from 2014(Twins 4th round pick), he’s been doing well since rhe Nationals called him up. Three appearances vs. Braves, his off-speed pitches had good movement.

Yes, the third and final time Buck Farmer was drafted, was 2013. Signed w/Detroit.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Nuke, I'd check your 2014 pitchers. Farmer was no longer on the roster, unless I'm mistaken. I'd include Devin Stanton, Ben Parr, Matthew Grimes, DeAndre Smelter (who was a better football receiver than he was a baseball pitcher @ Tech due to arm issues), Alex Cruz (who was dismissed from the team because of Marijuana, from what I've heard) but was a great bullpen arm for us, and Zac Ryan, who closed for us for a couple of years.

Good catch, I was a year off and had the 2013 pitchers: http://web1.ncaa.org/stats/StatsSrv/careerteam

And here are the 2014 pitchers . I was trying to remember why we were so good that year ........ Sam Clay and Dusty and Ben Parr and Devin Stanton had good years with lots of IP.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

So....assuming we split the difference on grad students returning, which 5 pitchers do we cut?

Yup, that's the point I got to in a long round about way.

But first we have to see the draft and who wants to go even if undrafted. Also watch the transfer portal. But having 45 on the roster has distorted things.

Another point I tried to make is we have a lot of talent coming in the 2021 Class and hopefully Grenk and Xander will be back to pitching. Xander had TJ sometime in the late fall / winter. Usually guys come back 9-12 months or so later. And be back to former proficiency 6-9 months after that. So we *should* be better.

Hey, does anyone know about summer leagues and the extent to which they will be playing this summer?

 

[eokerholm]

I also heard Jenkins pitches as well.

Summer leagues are a go.
Report date is 6/13 for the Cape; Season starts 6/20.
(We know because Christian is rooming in Dalton Smith's room this summer for school; Cody is Tres' (also going to the Cape)).
The guys will be sharing an apartment with Luke who is drafting and prepping for it.

Here is the Cape's crazy schedule:

https://capecodbaseball.org.ismmedia.com/ISM3/std-content/repos/Top/2012website/archives/Current%20Year/schedule202157.pdf

Top 10 Leagues: Collegiate Summer Baseball Ratings 2019​

Summer League Rankings Here:

 

[GTNavyNuke]

D1 is still only showing three GT players in the transfer portal. (Marant, Strickland, Holland).

Next big event is MLB draft. An overall draft post at some point.

I think I got clarification on years eligibility for grad students. I had assumed they only had one year but was told by a former player he thinks it is 4 years total undergrad and grad. That only changes Crawford who has used 1 non-COVID year (2020) http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?ID=220335 and still has three years left.

I still think Hurter is the only pitcher who will get drafted high enough to get a decent bonus. And that is based on potential rather than performance in 2021. Others may choose to go with the $30K bonus or whatever. But no way I can guess that.

 

[GTJon]

D1 is still only showing three GT players in the transfer portal. (Marant, Strickland, Holland).

Next big event is MLB draft. An overall draft post at some point.

I think I got clarification on years eligibility for grad students. I had assumed they only had one year but was told by a former player he thinks it is 4 years total undergrad and grad. That only changes Crawford who has used 1 non-COVID year (2020) http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?ID=220335 and still has three years left.

I still think Hurter is the only pitcher who will get drafted high enough to get a decent bonus. And that is based on potential rather than performance in 2021. Others may choose to go with the $30K bonus or whatever. But no way I can guess that.

Crawford is confusing because he wasn't actually on the team his first 2 years on campus. Did that start his clock ticking since he was a college student? He's listed on RR.com as a RS sophomore this year. Says 2018 was Freshman year but did not compete. So per that website, he would only have 2 years of eligibility left. Regardless, is he even going to take those 2? With his Aerospace Engineering degree in hand, he may want to go ahead and hit the Real World. He was one of the players honored on Senior Day. Notably Hurter was not even though he has been on campus 4 years.

 

[eokerholm]

Hurter has been on campus 4 years but does he have the credits necessary to graduate. The players take 12 hrs/semester at GT, not like the 15 at UVA where you have to get out and graduate in 4 years. 4x15 hrs vs 5x12hrs = 60 credit hours needed for degree. That’s also an extra year of tuition.

So is senior game or honors for 4 year players or graduating players?

Luckily C has 15 credits and is getting 6 more this summer so he’ll be at 21. Just needs to grab an extra 3 hr class and he’ll have enough credits to graduate Jr year with a degree and draft or come back and attend graduate school (if he can get in) for one year if he chooses to use up the eligibility. Throw in a red shirt year and he’ll be able to graduate with a graduate degree in his “5 years of eligibility” at GT if he is able or needing to…

 

[GTJon]

Hurter has been on campus 4 years but does he have the credits necessary to graduate. The players take 12 hrs/semester at GT, not like the 15 at UVA where you have to get out and graduate in 4 years. 4x15 hrs vs 5x12hrs = 60 credit hours needed for degree. That’s also an extra year of tuition.

So is senior game or honors for 4 year players or graduating players?

Luckily C has 15 credits and is getting 6 more this summer so he’ll be at 21. Just needs to grab an extra 3 hr class and he’ll have enough credits to graduate Jr year with a degree and draft or come back and attend graduate school (if he can get in) for one year if he chooses to use up the eligibility. Throw in a red shirt year and he’ll be able to graduate with a graduate degree in his “5 years of eligibility” at GT if he is able or needing to…

I'm assuming this year the Senior Day recognitions went to those that had graduated. Typically you would expect it to be only the ones who are out of eligibility (but that would've technically only been Wilhite). What I don't know is if it conferred any indication on intentions to move on which would be a little surprising since Crawford and Mannelly were both in it and both are listed as RS sophomores on the website with 2 years of eligibility left.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Crawford is confusing because he wasn't actually on the team his first 2 years on campus. Did that start his clock ticking since he was a college student? He's listed on RR.com as a RS sophomore this year. Says 2018 was Freshman year but did not compete. So per that website, he would only have 2 years of eligibility left. Regardless, is he even going to take those 2? With his Aerospace Engineering degree in hand, he may want to go ahead and hit the Real World. He was one of the players honored on Senior Day. Notably Hurter was not even though he has been on campus 4 years.

Crawford has only played two years 2020 and 2021. Since 2020 was a pass for everyone due to COVID, he has only used one year of eligibility. Here's the record for when he played: http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?ID=220335

As my neighbor (who played for CNU believes it to be), a player gets 4 years eligibility regardless of undergrad or grad and eligibility is not related to time on campus. I think that is how BYU gets to having 27 year old linemen. But back to baseball, Sam is currently 21.4 years old as he was born in June 1999. So whether he wants to play more or do other things now that he has graduated is up to him.

Best wishes regardless!

 

[GTJon]

Crawford has only played two years 2020 and 2021. Since 2020 was a pass for everyone due to COVID, he has only used one year of eligibility. Here's the record for when he played: http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?ID=220335

As my neighbor (who played for CNU believes it to be), a player gets 4 years eligibility regardless of undergrad or grad and eligibility is not related to time on campus. I think that is how BYU gets to having 27 year old linemen. But back to baseball, Sam is currently 21.4 years old as he was born in June 1999. So whether he wants to play more or do other things now that he has graduated is up to him.

Best wishes regardless!

So I had to research this to get to the bottom of it. From the NCAA website:

Division I five-year clock: If you play at a Division I school, you have five-calendar years in which to play four seasons of competition. Your five-year clock starts when you enroll as a full-time student at any college.

Since Crawford enrolled in school for the 2018 season, that was his redshirt year, 2019 was his freshman year (even though not on team), 2020 didn't count, and he just finished his sophomore eligibility year. So that also answers the question, that unfortunately, even though I never played a college sport, I no longer have any eligibility since I started college 25 years ago.

I think the BYU issue involves the Mormon Mission and they are granted an exemption while on the mission. It's also why players who went straight to Minor League Baseball but come back after 6 years to college for the first time to play football are 25 year old freshmen.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

So I had to research this to get to the bottom of it. From the NCAA website:

Division I five-year clock: If you play at a Division I school, you have five-calendar years in which to play four seasons of competition. Your five-year clock starts when you enroll as a full-time student at any college.

Since Crawford enrolled in school for the 2018 season, that was his redshirt year, 2019 was his freshman year (even though not on team), 2020 didn't count, and he just finished his sophomore eligibility year. So that also answers the question, that unfortunately, even though I never played a college sport, I no longer have any eligibility since I started college 25 years ago.

I think the BYU issue involves the Mormon Mission and they are granted an exemption while on the mission. It's also why players who went straight to Minor League Baseball but come back after 6 years to college for the first time to play football are 25 year old freshmen.

Thanks. I was looking for that type of thing and couldn't find it. Probably since it was under the Transfer Terms section. Link is https://www.ncaa.org/student-athletes/current/transfer-terms ? Anyway, I'll use this when looking at the rest of the team. Any wonder it's hard for HS kids and parents to figure out what's going on. They have to rely on the colleges to not lead them astray.

There is a COVID year exemption so players can get up to six years. Don't know where that is written but in some game I was hearing about a smaller school having 2 six year seniors. So I'll assume that the "clock" was stopped in 2020.

So it looks like Sam has two years of eligibility left. 2018,2019 and 2021 part of 5 year. 2020 doesn't count. So two left.

And I agree on BYU and players coming to college after playing pro sports in another sport.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Andy Archer enters the Transfer Portal too. Good luck. He's a grad and hope he has a great future where ever.

All transfers so far:

 

[eokerholm]

 

[eokerholm]

Sorry wrong thread to post this