2022 Pitching

CINCYMETJACKET

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Pitchers play defense too... some of them play it poorly. Honestly, my observation is very few play defense really well. In 2021, our pitchers accounted for 14 of the team's 72 errors (19%). 3B was the only position accounting for more errors (18) on the season. Pitchers who can't field their position fall in same category for me as basketball players that cannot make free throws. Put in the work... get better at it. The dividend is only going to help you and the team succeed. Maybe those issues (when they arise) are on the coaches. I don't know.

There is some irony (statistically speaking) that a pitcher's error(s) have a positive impact on their own (or the pitcher they just relieved) ERA.

Scenario... 2 outs and Pitcher A walks the bases loaded. Pitcher B is brought in to shut the door. Ground ball to 1B... 1B tosses to pitcher covering and he fumbles it (E1). Safe at 1st. 2 runs score. No earned runs charged to either pitcher A or B no matter how many are scored in the inning. (I think I'm right about that)

"Statistics are used much like a drunk uses a lamppost: for support, not illumination." -Vin Scully

@GTNavyNuke ...I doubt any of the above relates at all to your question or your analysis. 😃
I'm curious how many of those are throwing errors versus fielding errors. One of, if not my last competitive game ever as a pitcher (in our local little league), I struck out the side in the first. Drove in a run B1 with a SAC fly to give us a 1-0 lead (and I was not a good hitter...). Top 2, man on first (maybe one on second as well), a good friend of mine lays down a bunt. Don't recall how many outs there were, but I threw it down the first base line for an error. The flood gates opened after that. Not sure I lasted through the inning. A simple throw, not made. Was a big game too. Top two teams in the league, late in the season. The coach called my house to tell me he wanted me pitching in that game. Didn't get the job done.

And yes, you are correct about that ERA wise. Even if it's pitcher A that bobbles the ball for an E1!
 

randerto

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Thanks to the mods for moving the question of starting pitching to this thread. I've posted pitching stuff elsewhere too so no judgement here.

Anyway, Grissom and Maxwell started the two fall games. So after those two, it's all up to how well fall ball went and how they look coming out of the shutdown. For weekend starters, Bartnicki, Roedig, Siegel and Smith are good guesses for returners for the last weekend and mid-week spot. Then some Fr but I doubt they'll be able to go too far.

I was listening to a D1 pod cast two nights ago. The only mention of GT in it was of Maxwell. Said he might be effective but only had two pitches - fastball and slider. I think he will start since that is what happened in the fall. But unless he gets his control in order, which he didn't this last summer (6.17 in 11.2 IP in Cape Cod) I don't know he should start. I like him coming in as a reliever given his limited pitches. Better hitters can adjust to him the more they see him.
My only real wish is that we try out a lot of guys and see who is best in actual games early in the season. Then go with who's doing the best. NC State and UVa do that more than we do. We seem to keep our starters in longer early in the season which does build up their endurance but limits others opportunities. We now have so much more quality pitching depth than we have had for a long long time so maybe that will happen.

Anyway, here are the pitchers we have before the final roster cut to 40 players. I like checking out their stats in the far right column.
Agreed - I see many projecting Maxwell as a starter, but I just don't see that happening by the time ACC play begins based on past performance. Also agreed it appears the staff will experiment with him as a starter early in the season. He's got closer written all over him. He can be MLB-level effective and help save a lot of W's for us this season if he figures out how to more consistently control his top two pitches.
 

GTNavyNuke

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Expect more of this! Let's go Jackets!!!

Hopefully this is his year. Was rolling in 2020 but had a rough spot in 2021. With 2 years left, let's hope for killer numbers from him ..... and for us.

He has always had a f u attitude when he takes the mound. Sounds like he is leaner and meaner. Love it.

1642769727141.png
 

GTNavyNuke

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I put this over in 2022 Season posts but it is sort of pitching. I think pitching is greatly helped by a good defense behind the pitcher. But I couldn't show that really. So maybe just another unfounded bias I have.

I've been trying to figure out how important defense is relative to pitching. We all have anecdotes about defense losing games but how many games are influenced by defense. But is there some numerical OQE that can be developed?

My attempt was to look at last years NCAA D1 baseball data for all teams. I calculated the unearned runs per game (=total runs less earned runs) and then compared it to ERA. What I see is that the average team gives up on the order of 85% of their runs as earned and 15% as unearned. So defense is important, but maybe 1/5th of what pitching is. And offense is the other ingredient for winning games, but that is a separate discussion.

For all 286 D1 teams last year:
1643404192664.png


And more importantly for the ACC where we play most of our games. I put in the labels for the outliers and in the chart sorted by total runs per game.
1643404154786.png


Attachments​

 

GTNavyNuke

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I love the math and the charts, but definitely not the results for GT.

Got to dramatically improve on that!

Thanks, Nuke.

At work I was running some advanced concept math for two different projects. I got confused and substituted one project's monthly dataset for another and couldn't figure out why the results were so screwy for a few hours. Told a co-worker and he said, "Keep the numbers if they are better."

Long way of saying the numbers are what the numbers are. We'll be lethal if we get our ERA down to 4.2.

But we start off the season against the team which scored the most runs per game (10.2) last year in D1 baseball. So see what we have pitching wise right out the gate.
 

FredJacket

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I love the math and the charts, but definitely not the results for GT.

Got to dramatically improve on that!

Thanks, Nuke.
What's the problem with the results?

I consider this the great question of fandom.

Do you want to be relevant EVERY year?
[CDH era... I believe we have been nearly every one]

...or do you want to be something greater(?) than that? & define the greater than.

That you think should have / could have happened.... given the very real chance it could have plummeted to Va Tech or Wake Forest or Clemson or type results.
 

senoiajacket

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Is there any indication(s) that Roedig can return to his 2019 form (or better)? I’ve seen some predictions that he is expected to be a weekend starter. Is this based on improved (over 2021 regular season) summer ball stats?
 

GTNavyNuke

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Is there any indication(s) that Roedig can return to his 2019 form (or better)? I’ve seen some predictions that he is expected to be a weekend starter. Is this based on improved (over 2021 regular season) summer ball stats?

This was from D1 Baseball Fall Report . But they didn't mention Cort in the 21 ranking discussion, so maybe it is misplaced hope. But I really like him from 2019 and the attitude I saw.

1643805111964.png
 

senoiajacket

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He was crazy good in the fall and in way better form, so yes. He's a BEAST and HE'S BACK!!
Man, this is great news and has me smiling while I sit here. I am in agreement with GTNavyNuke. I loved what I saw from him in 2019 and look forward to seeing more and better Cort this year ...... 97 is sounding really good! Pounding the strike zone is sounding even better!
 

eokerholm

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Yep #28 is Logan. Christian is #29.
Anderson is a beast!
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You can take the boy out of TX...but..... Love the TX Flag on Christian's glove. Heard Logan copied it. He was born there but raised in GA.
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He and some others missed Media/Picture day with the Flu in Dec. He was happy he got to use his new glove in the pictures.
 
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