2021 Baseball Season

gtrower

gtrower

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FredJacket said:
@gtrower So... when assessing/comparing teams and how they faired against each other, do you only look at the outcome (win v loss) or does "how" it happened matter to you? The best example that is extreme is the BC v Auburn game last weekend where Auburn had a 9-1 lead going into T9. BC tied the game by scoring 8 runs (all 8 with 2 outs)...then went on to win in extra innings. Do you give Auburn any "credit" for being dominant over 26 outs OR do you give them extra "negative credit" for failing to close out the game OR is it the same as if BC had won a tight game? ...and what do you think the D1 ranking dudes do with stuff like that? I'm betting these examples are where the biases are most in play... a chance to rationalize anything.
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Id say this early maybe you look at that kind of thing b/c the sample size is still small. But by the end of the year I’d just be looking at series W/L. Auburn has a pitching depth problem and that’s reflected in that meltdown and series loss. Just my opinion.
 
GTNavyNuke

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gtrower said:
Id say this early maybe you look at that kind of thing b/c the sample size is still small. But by the end of the year I’d just be looking at series W/L. Auburn has a pitching depth problem and that’s reflected in that meltdown and series loss. Just my opinion.
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When coming up with seeding, early season wins / losses are discounted relative to end of season. I'd just look at W/L since there is no crying in baseball.

Most all teams have a pitching depth problem right now as coaches try and figure out who they can trust and who they can't.

But the loss after being up 9-1 with one out to go is instructional to all. Talk about a slow hook. Reminds me of another Auburn game. Karma is a ***** and this isn't the NCAA Tourney. They have a lot more karma coming.

As long as we go to Omaha and win, I don't care about the rankings. We control our destiny.
 

CINCYMETJACKET

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FredJacket said:
@gtrower So... when assessing/comparing teams and how they faired against each other, do you only look at the outcome (win v loss) or does "how" it happened matter to you? The best example that is extreme is the BC v Auburn game last weekend where Auburn had a 9-1 lead going into T9. BC tied the game by scoring 8 runs (all 8 with 2 outs)...then went on to win in extra innings. Do you give Auburn any "credit" for being dominant over 26 outs OR do you give them extra "negative credit" for failing to close out the game OR is it the same as if BC had won a tight game? ...and what do you think the D1 ranking dudes do with stuff like that? I'm betting these examples are where the biases are most in play... a chance to rationalize anything.
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gtrower said:
Id say this early maybe you look at that kind of thing b/c the sample size is still small. But by the end of the year I’d just be looking at series W/L. Auburn has a pitching depth problem and that’s reflected in that meltdown and series loss. Just my opinion.
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For projecting how things may play out in future games, I look at both. Although interpreting how a beatdown/meltdown like that can affect a team going forward is a crapshoot. The standings don't care how it happened, and in most cases the selection committees don't either. They'll see a 10-9 loss in extra innings and where it's played. Not how it happened.
 
FredJacket

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Parada 2nd in nation in BA.

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Baseball America has 5 SEC teams in the top 5, LOLOLOLOL.

We're still Top 10, but still ranked behind Louisville. 🤷‍♂️

The ACC has 8 teams ranked in the top 22. 😬 BA points out we are 5-1 against the top 25.

D1 dropped us 5 spots to #12. I can see that for sure. That's 1 week old though as they haven't updated theirs yet for this last week.
 

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MWBATL said:
I take it this means they don't consider Pitt to be Top 25????
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Yea I had to double and triple check this to make sure I wasn't doing the typical bwelbo fake news. But its in there. We're ranked 10th, it says 5-1 against the top 25, and yet there is Louisville at #7, Pitt at #14, and NC State is gone. Its likely that's old copy in the finer detail from weeks ago that someone never updated.
 
GTNavyNuke

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bwelbo said:
Yea I had to double and triple check this to make sure I wasn't doing the typical bwelbo fake news. But its in there. We're ranked 10th, it says 5-1 against the top 25, and yet there is Louisville at #7, Pitt at #14, and NC State is gone. Its likely that's old copy in the finer detail from weeks ago that someone never updated.
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Yeah people on the baseball board are a tough crowd. Not as tough as football or basketball where there are more firmly held opinions in the face of facts though.

Unrelated note. We win every series for the rest of the season and we'll be fine. Lose one or get swept and that is enough to get dropped a lot if the rest of the resume isn't strong enough. People generally like us this year more than our record could support. Strict mechanical rpi calculation has us at #40 right now. But as we've discussed, there are lots of problems with rpi (or any ranking system).

This shows we are 3-3 against quadrant 1 teams. http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2021/rpi-live
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GtBaseball3

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bwelbo said:
Baseball America has 5 SEC teams in the top 5, LOLOLOLOL.

We're still Top 10, but still ranked behind Louisville. 🤷‍♂️

The ACC has 8 teams ranked in the top 22. 😬 BA points out we are 5-1 against the top 25.

D1 dropped us 5 spots to #12. I can see that for sure. That's 1 week old though as they haven't updated theirs yet for this last week.
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That’s what happens when you play multiple series against terrible competition. They’re just padding their records so they can make the tournament.
 
GTNavyNuke

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Every one of the 7 ACC teams in action yesterday won. Very good for RPI. Gets the ACC rpi up to second behind the SEC. The rpi takes SoS into consideration. As the season goes on, the terrible teams played will drag down the rpi since you can lose rpi percentage even beating a team away. And the impact of those terrible teams getting a high rpi from being beaten by a better team will fade. Just wait.

Just win.

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gtrower

gtrower

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GTNavyNuke said:
Every one of the 7 ACC teams in action yesterday won. Very good for RPI. Gets the ACC rpi up to second behind the SEC. The rpi takes SoS into consideration. As the season goes on, the terrible teams played will drag down the rpi since you can lose rpi percentage even beating a team away. And the impact of those terrible teams getting a high rpi from being beaten by a better team will fade. Just wait.

Just win.

View attachment 10208
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Was channel surfing on ESPN yesterday and ended up on the Kentucky Butler game. Butler blew a 3 run lead in the B9. Bummer as that might’ve been enough to push the ACC over this week.
 
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