2021 Baseball Season

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

I don't know how reliable this is, but Reddit shows Tech ranked number 4 in the country now ---

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I don't know how reliable this is, but Reddit shows Tech ranked number 4 in the country now ---
View attachment 10062

As reliable as this: http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2021/rpi-live

We're #62 (on 3/9/21) based on rpi and only considering the games played this year.

After about 8 weeks the cream will rise. The SEC is going to do ok with rpi this year since they have have won the highest percentage ooc games, but those teams they beat haven't done as well as the teams the ACC has beaten. Thus the higher ACC conference ranking. The way this is spun is that the ACC is much deeper but the SEC has the top 5 teams in the land.

 

[gtrower]

As reliable as this: http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2021/rpi-live

We're #62 (on 3/9/21) based on rpi and only considering the games played this year.

View attachment 10063

After about 8 weeks the cream will rise. The SEC is going to do ok with rpi this year since they have have won the highest percentage ooc games, but those teams they beat haven't done as well as the teams the ACC has beaten. Thus the higher ACC conference ranking. The way this is spun is that the ACC is much deeper but the SEC has the top 5 teams in the land.
View attachment 10064

Itll be interesting to see the affect of the ACC playing 12 series while the SEC only plays 10. I’d think the ACC will end up finishing on top of the RPI because of that (might have even without it).

It’s interesting how the polls are shaping up though. Literally everybody is saying this is the deepest and most talented the ACC has ever been. And it shows in the OOC records and RPI. Meanwhile the SEC has some high profile OOC series losses (Ole Miss to UCF, UF to Miami, LSU to ORU, Auburn to BC. Has the ACC even lost an OOC series yet? I guess Clemson to USCe would count even though it was just 2.

Yet we still have 8 SEC teams ranked including the Top 5 and only 6 ACC teams ranked with the highest being us at 7. Some people like to brush this off as meaningless early polling. But it’s not meaningless. It shapes perception of conference hierarchies. SEC is basically guaranteed to keep 8 or 9 teams in the polls all year now because of those Top 5 (they’ll all just be “beating up on each other”). And that’s gonna translate to 4+ national seeds, 6+ regional hosts, and ~11 bids. For no reason other than media thinks they’re supposed to be good despite their early season play.

 

[GtBaseball3]

If you don’t think SEC bias exist you’re delusional!

LSU # 15: lost a series to a 4-7 oral Roberts and gave up 22 runs in game one. They also haven’t even FACED a ranked team yet! Btw, oral roberts had just lost a series to South Alabama lol

florida #7: 1-4 vs ranked teams and they are #7? Must be those amazing wins against Samford and Florida A&M

Tbh this is really going to hurt some ACC teams this post season, when sec teams are just padding their records.

 

[GtBaseball3]

Also, ole miss is ranked top 5 after losing a series at home to a UCF team that is 3-8.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Beat the SEC in regular season and beat them in post season and the bias will decrease. Till then IIWII.

Also, there is more follow and thus money for the SEC, so they will be treated better by the media who wants to maximize their eyeballs. I think we've had this discussion in football. In basket ball, the ACC is perceived as the best year in and year out and probably more follow of ACC basketball (NC mafia) than SEC.

I think early in the season, there is a grace period to some extent that will go away when those top 5 SEC teams lose series to other teams that aren't in the top 5. We lost to Ga State by God. NC State is 1-5. L'Ville is 1-2.

 

[GtBaseball3]

Beat the SEC in regular season and beat them in post season and the bias will decrease. Till then IIWII.

Also, there is more follow and thus money for the SEC, so they will be treated better by the media who wants to maximize their eyeballs. I think we've had this discussion in football. In basket ball, the ACC is perceived as the best year in and year out and probably more follow of ACC basketball (NC mafia) than SEC.

I think early in the season, there is a grace period to some extent that will go away when those top 5 SEC teams lose series to other teams that aren't in the top 5. We lost to Ga State by God. NC State is 1-5. L'Ville is 1-2.

Grace period? When they enter sec play losses won’t matter because of all the sec teams are littered across the top 25. It’s happened before and it will happen again.

Also, Georgia st also has a series win against #14 wvu and beat #2 Vanderbilt at home

 

[FredJacket]

Itll be interesting to see the affect of the ACC playing 12 series while the SEC only plays 10. I’d think the ACC will end up finishing on top of the RPI because of that (might have even without it).

It’s interesting how the polls are shaping up though. Literally everybody is saying this is the deepest and most talented the ACC has ever been. And it shows in the OOC records and RPI. Meanwhile the SEC has some high profile OOC series losses (Ole Miss to UCF, UF to Miami, LSU to ORU, Auburn to BC. Has the ACC even lost an OOC series yet? I guess Clemson to USCe would count even though it was just 2.

Yet we still have 8 SEC teams ranked including the Top 5 and only 6 ACC teams ranked with the highest being us at 7. Some people like to brush this off as meaningless early polling. But it’s not meaningless. It shapes perception of conference hierarchies. SEC is basically guaranteed to keep 8 or 9 teams in the polls all year now because of those Top 5 (they’ll all just be “beating up on each other”). And that’s gonna translate to 4+ national seeds, 6+ regional hosts, and ~11 bids. For no reason other than media thinks they’re supposed to be good despite their early season play.

I think you make some good points...nothing wrong with your 'analysis' there. Curious your thoughts on my perspective, though. What are you concerned about? A lack of respect/appropriate 'ranking' of the ACC v the SEC... in and of itself OR do you assume any disparity in SEC favor will hurt Ga Tech substantially. If Ga Tech (at this point..highest ranked ACC team) is relying on the ACC to be better than the SEC, then that means Ga Tech will have screwed up in the future somehow...and will be lying in the bed they made. Ga Tech controls it own fate now regardless of what the other 27 teams we're talking about do. Just win most of the remaining games and Ga Tech is a national seed. Its way too early...lots of baseball left; but we are off to an outstanding start and in driver's seat to be regular season ACC champs, Coastal champs... and a national seed. I hate to put it this way; but truly everything good is ours for the taking... or we've let someone else take it from us.

I don't care too much about the SEC v ACC... except if it really does hurt Ga Tech...and I think your point(s) in most years and for other ACC teams "may" have some validity. I mentioned in another post that I'm really curious how the committee will approach their deliberations. RPI is flawed and more so this year. Rankings are flawed for the biases you pointed out... and likewise, the committee surely has flaws as they bring biases too. We simply don't know how to quantify all that... and I can't think of any remedy.

I'm good with both conferences being ELITE. When a 14-team conferences get 9-11 teams in the postseason, that means it is an elite conference and we're really splitting hairs over which conference is 'better' at that point. Ga Tech plays (in non-covid times) at least 5 games per season v SEC opponents. Again... take care of your business. CIRCLE those games v UGA (2 games) and Auburn (1 game).. this season. While you're at it, circle Ga State.. we need to get that loss back as best we can. Further... be Ga State FANS! They play a lot of SEC teams... in fact, one tonight (Florida)... a Ga State win helps Ga Tech!

Something fun to follow... can we beat (have at least one win over) every team on our schedule? Mathematically, that is quite possible right now. If we do that, we'll have a pretty nice RPI.

I would argue any biases are program/team related more than conference related. In addition to all the biases pointed out already... There's a Louisville bias. They are still in top 10 after going 1-3 last week. There's a Ga Tech bias... moved up 5 spots after a .500 week (2-2).

 

[gtrower]

Sounds like I just might be more of a conference fan than you are - which is fine I have no problem with somebody cheering for Tech and caring less about the rest of the conference. I was raised an ACC fan long before I decided to go to Tech so still want the rest of the conference to do well (secondary to Tech of course).

I think where it could come back to be an issue is at the cutoffs for seeds/hosts. For instance if UL/Miami/Tech all finish with around 28 ACC wins without much separation in the resumés are they going to give the ACC three National Seeds? How are we gonna compare the top ACC teams and top SEC teams? When the SEC has a stranglehold on the Top 4/5.

Disagree with the “UL and GT biases.” It’s more of a weekend bias. Midweek losses aren’t generally a big deal. Weekend series are considered to measuring stick for teams. So UL lost a road series to #12 and dropped 5 spots (several teams behind them also fell which helped them). Tech won a home series against #5 and moved up 5 spots (ahead of those same teams that lost). That’s not really a bias. It’s a net of 0 ranking slots lost.

Pretty sure the ACC had more ranked teams in the preseason than we have right now. After having the best OOC resumé in the country thus far. That’s weird to me.

 

[Buzzbomb]

Two of this weekend’s games have been added to the ACC Network, Friday at 7 p.m. and Saturday on at 6 p.m. The Sunday 1 p.m. remains on the ACC Network Extra/+ feed.

 

[JacketOff]

Sounds like I just might be more of a conference fan than you are - which is fine I have no problem with somebody cheering for Tech and caring less about the rest of the conference. I was raised an ACC fan long before I decided to go to Tech so still want the rest of the conference to do well (secondary to Tech of course).

I think where it could come back to be an issue is at the cutoffs for seeds/hosts. For instance if UL/Miami/Tech all finish with around 28 ACC wins without much separation in the resumés are they going to give the ACC three National Seeds? How are we gonna compare the top ACC teams and top SEC teams? When the SEC has a stranglehold on the Top 4/5.

Disagree with the “UL and GT biases.” It’s more of a weekend bias. Midweek losses aren’t generally a big deal. Weekend series are considered to measuring stick for teams. So UL lost a road series to #12 and dropped 5 spots (several teams behind them also fell which helped them). Tech won a home series against #5 and moved up 5 spots (ahead of those same teams that lost). That’s not really a bias. It’s a net of 0 ranking slots lost.

Pretty sure the ACC had more ranked teams in the preseason than we have right now. After having the best OOC resumé in the country thus far. That’s weird to me.

The selection committee doesn’t really look at rankings when seeding teams for the tournament. They do a good job of looking at the whole picture. If anything you could say that they try to seed regional hosts based on who they would match up with in the Supers. Tech was never ranked higher than 7th in 2019, but ended up as the #3 national seed. When questioned about it, the committee member stated that winning 9 of 10 ACC series and having a strong RPI warranted a high ranking. What was sus about the seed though is that UNC was #14, and had Tech won the regional would’ve created an ACC Championship rematch in the Supers. 5 of the 8 Super Regional matchups were set up to be intra conference had both regional hosts won. The baseball committee has always had a reputation for bypassing rankings and other metrics, and just attempting to create the most interesting matchups.

 

[gtrower]

Listened to the D1B and BA podcasts. Both had frustratingly different takes on the ACC.

D1B: SEC will get more NCAAT bids because the ACC is too deep and will beat up on each other. While the SEC has some doormats (Mizzou / Kentucky) to beat up on. They are literally saying the SEC will get more bids because the ACC is too good. interesting take to say the least.

They didn’t mention Tech until the last few minutes as a “team crush.” Love our bats and excused our pitching b/c of UL’s pedigree. Still high on Hurter and Crawford. Think they mention Parada every podcast at this point. Mentioned something about starting to think it’s the “same old Tech” ghosts crumbling in the spotlight after Friday but team showed a new grit to comeback sat/sun. Credited CJR and CDB


BA: Loves the ACC. They have all 14 teams ranked in their Top 50. Absurd. Commented how crazy deep the entire conference is. Also spent a good 3-4 minutes talking about the Tech/UL series. Said we’re the favorites for the conference at this point with a comfortable 5-1 record. Commented that we could go .500 the rest of the way in conference play and still breeze into the NCAAT. (honestly 20-16 might still flirt with hosting territory in the ACC).

But I think we’d all be a little disappointed with that at this point. Think 24 ACC wins is the goal and anything above that is a National Seed lock.

 

[FredJacket]

 

[FredJacket]

Listened to the D1B and BA podcasts. Both had frustratingly different takes on the ACC.

D1B: SEC will get more NCAAT bids because the ACC is too deep and will beat up on each other. While the SEC has some doormats (Mizzou / Kentucky) to beat up on. They are literally saying the SEC will get more bids because the ACC is too good. interesting take to say the least.

They didn’t mention Tech until the last few minutes as a “team crush.” Love our bats and excused our pitching b/c of UL’s pedigree. Still high on Hurter and Crawford. Think they mention Parada every podcast at this point. Mentioned something about starting to think it’s the “same old Tech” ghosts crumbling in the spotlight after Friday but team showed a new grit to comeback sat/sun. Credited CJR and CDB


BA: Loves the ACC. They have all 14 teams ranked in their Top 50. Absurd. Commented how crazy deep the entire conference is. Also spent a good 3-4 minutes talking about the Tech/UL series. Said we’re the favorites for the conference at this point with a comfortable 5-1 record. Commented that we could go .500 the rest of the way in conference play and still breeze into the NCAAT. (honestly 20-16 might still flirt with hosting territory in the ACC).

But I think we’d all be a little disappointed with that at this point. Think 24 ACC wins is the goal and anything above that is a National Seed lock.

This is a pretty good debate/discussion. Define "deep"? It's early... but the ACC seems to have no "doormats"... but how many elite teams? Early returns are no more than 2 (Ga Tech & Louisville). So deep has to be pretty subjective.

In the end... I think this will pretty much work itself out. Will be fun to follow.

Don't get me wrong... I once thought I was doing the "ACC fan" thing ... so I sort of get it. I just found over time I could rarely pull for the likes of Miami, VT, UNC... regardless of who they were playing. Likewise, I find it easy to pull for Vandy, UT, A&M.

 

[gtrower]

This is a pretty good debate/discussion. Define "deep"? It's early... but the ACC seems to have no "doormats"... but how many elite teams? Early returns are no more than 2 (Ga Tech & Louisville). So deep has to be pretty subjective.

In the end... I think this will pretty much work itself out. Will be fun to follow.

Don't get me wrong... I once thought I was doing the "ACC fan" thing ... so I sort of get it. I just found over time I could rarely pull for the likes of Miami, VT, UNC... regardless of who they were playing. Likewise, I find it easy to pull for Vandy, UT, A&M.

I think you have to include Miami in that discussion right now. They have the best series win of anybody in the country on their resumé @Florida (arguably over UCF/Ole Miss). And have played a ridiculously tough schedule to open the season compared to everybody else.

If you go off resumés and ignore preseason assumptions then I don’t see separation between the top of the SEC and the ACC. Certainly bolstered by the fact that Miami (3-3 ACC) already knocked off the SEC favorite.

 

[FredJacket]

I think you have to include Miami in that discussion right now. They have the best series win of anybody in the country on their resumé @Florida (arguably over UCF/Ole Miss). And have played a ridiculously tough schedule to open the season compared to everybody else.

If you go off resumés and ignore preseason assumptions then I don’t see separation between the top of the SEC and the ACC. Certainly bolstered by the fact that Miami (3-3 ACC) already knocked off the SEC favorite.

Good point. Yes. I agree.

 

[MWBATL]

Unless I am mistaken (always possible, as my wife often reminds me..), the two series between SEC teams and ACC teams have thus far both been won by....ACC teams (Miami over Florida and BC over Auburn, both on the road)

 

[gtrower]

Unless I am mistaken (always possible, as my wife often reminds me..), the two series between SEC teams and ACC teams have thus far both been won by....ACC teams (Miami over Florida and BC over Auburn, both on the road)

USCe beat Clemson twice with walk offs. Not a three game series but technically evens up the overall records to 4-4. I’d say the ACC still has the edge though given Florida is the favorite to win the SEC. hopefully our midweek pitching depth tightens up before we start playing uga.

 

[MWBATL]

USCe beat Clemson twice with walk offs. Not a three game series but technically evens up the overall records to 4-4. I’d say the ACC still has the edge though given Florida is the favorite to win the SEC. hopefully our midweek pitching depth tightens up before we start playing uga.

Ah, you're right. I had forgotten about Clemson and USCe. Thanks for the correction.....we still lead in series wins though, 2-1. That's my spin and I'm sticking to it!

 

[FredJacket]

@gtrower So... when assessing/comparing teams and how they faired against each other, do you only look at the outcome (win v loss) or does "how" it happened matter to you? The best example that is extreme is the BC v Auburn game last weekend where Auburn had a 9-1 lead going into T9. BC tied the game by scoring 8 runs (all 8 with 2 outs)...then went on to win in extra innings. Do you give Auburn any "credit" for being dominant over 26 outs OR do you give them extra "negative credit" for failing to close out the game OR is it the same as if BC had won a tight game? ...and what do you think the D1 ranking dudes do with stuff like that? I'm betting these examples are where the biases are most in play... a chance to rationalize anything.