2021 ACC and Competition News

[UgaBlows]

Wish granted

HahAha......frick duke and cutcliff

 

[slugboy]

I have these stats at hand, and people have been talking about where we're strong on offense or defense, so let's look at EPA (PPA) for some ACC teams. Glossary at https://collegefootballdata.com/glossary#ExpectedPoints, which is where I got the data from.

You want to be low or even negative on defense, and as high as possible on offense.

This is the Georgia Tech Expected Points Added (Predicted Points Added) for 2021. I highlighted our passing defense, because it's a "hooo-boy, somebody's going to either score points or move the ball a ton that way". It's stats, but it's the stats equivalent of "why would someone run the ball against us"?

	Offense	Defense
All	0.2	0.258
Rushing	0.13	0.058
Passing	0.296	0.532

Here's Clemson. On defense, they're "you should not run on us; passing is tough, but rushing is a mistake". On offense, overall they're terrible, but their passing game is a wreck.

	Offense	Defense
All	0.077	0.023
Rushing	0.105	-0.06
Passing	0.058	0.103

Here's Pitt. If you go to the original site, they're nice and green in all the squares. They pass the ball really well, and run the ball better than us. On defense, they're also nice and green except for pass defense.

	Offense	Defense
All	0.352	0.055
Rushing	0.195	-0.007
Passing	0.494	0.112

Duke's offense isn't terrible, it's just meh across the board. Their defense is much worse than ours. We can at least defend the run--they can't do that.

	Offense	Defense
All	0.177	0.383
Rushing	0.141	0.273
Passing	0.254	0.557

Louisville is balanced and all green on offense, and meh on defense. When I say "meh", it's not like us or Duke who are terrible, but it's not a difference maker.

	Offense	Defense
All	0.325	0.206
Rushing	0.268	0.225
Passing	0.4	0.191

Virginia is a wreck on defense. They're worse than us overall (but better on pass defense). They're all systems go on offense, though.

	Offense	Defense
All	0.334	0.295
Rushing	0.283	0.246
Passing	0.382	0.416

In a nutshell, if you're going to fix any gaping hole on our team, it's pass defense--pass rush, pass coverage, the whole thing.

 

[slugboy]

Fun timing--this just came out today on Run/Pass splits, and we're on it. We're in Kansas territory for passing defense, and we're middle of the pack on rushing defense. In the eye test, we don't look that good in rush defense, but we're so bad in pass defense that opponents are passing in run situations.
In pass defense, we're to the right or below the bottom dashed line--our passing defense numbers get even more inflated because it's our achilles' heel--teams pound on our weak pass defense. In rushing defense, we're above the top dashed line, meaning rush defense numbers look better because our opponents just go ahead and pound against our pass defense.
Clemson was a nice matchup for us--they can't pass, but we can't defend the pass. UVA and Pitt were gruesome because they could pass like crazy. It's amazing UNC wasn't a worse game for us.

 

[cthenrys]

I remember in 88, at one point we were top 10 in passing defense. Because I could have run for 5 a carry against the D that year ?

 

[bobongo]

I think the DL has played well against the run, but hasn't gotten much support from the linebackers and secondary. Of course, the DL hasn't done so well pressuring the QB so they haven't been much help against the pass, while the DB's & 'backers haven't helped the line stop the run.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

I think the DL has played well against the run, but hasn't gotten much support from the linebackers and secondary. Of course, the DL hasn't done so well pressuring the QB so they haven't been much help against the pass, while the DB's & 'backers haven't helped the line stop the run.

This kind of analysis in the 3rd year makes me aware all over again of how many things need to be fixed with this team. It’s not one or two areas, it’s most of our positions on offense and defense.

That’s why I get frustrated when people simply zero in on the offensive line. If it were just the offensive line a good coach might be able to scheme around our weaknesses. But we are truly losing as a team.

I promise to quit my negative bellyaching for now.

 

[CuseJacket]

 

[stech81]

I think the DL has played well against the run, but hasn't gotten much support from the linebackers and secondary. Of course, the DL hasn't done so well pressuring the QB so they haven't been much help against the pass, while the DB's & 'backers haven't helped the line stop the run.

We use DB's

 

[slugboy]

Pitt takes the Coastal crown:

 

[InsideLB]

Thinking Dan Mullen to NFL, if not possibly VT.