2021 ACC and Competition News

[CuseJacket]

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

I thought they still had that woman. Look out Manny.

 

[TruckStick]

Black Monday? More like Turnover Tuesday

 

[dmurdock]

Virginia Tech has fired Fuente.

Here's an article from the Athletic (paid): https://theathletic.com/news/justin...58XLOHP0yl/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983.
Here's another article (free): https://www.al.com/sports/2021/11/virginia-tech-fires-football-coach-justin-fuente.html

 

[slugboy]

I’m on a tablet right now, so I don’t have as much edit freedom as I would on a laptop, but I saw F+ offense vs defense stats today, and I wondered where we would land (not well, I’d think)

I ran a simpler PPA (Predicted Points Added, same as EPA) chart. The horizontal is offense, and you want to be as far to the right on that as possible (every play is big time). The vertical is defensive PPA, and it’s the opposite—you want to give up as little as possible.
UVA is about the worst on defense, and about the best on offense. Clemson is the reverse, and that puts them in the middle—interesting games, and a middling bowl.
This year is not something for Tony Elliot (Clemson’s OC) to put on his resume; it might be a reason for him to update his resume, though.
Wake is as bad on defense as we are, but their offense is great, and that puts them in contention.
We’re nearly the bottom of the conference, but Duke is at the bottom in a class by themselves.
So, with an efficient offense, we’re bowling. We’re an average offense, but we’re feast or famine. We need to either feast a lot more or cut out the famines. With an above average defense, we’re bowling. We’re a terrible defense—not just statistically, but by the eye test too.
We’re close to VT and Miami, not that they’re anything to brag about. One of their coaches got fired, and the other one might.
Pitt is the class of the conference this year, but Wake and UVA play well enough on offense to upset them, and NCST is the same on defense.

 

[slugboy]

FEI numbers (from bcftoys.com) should give a better idea than the chart above. Wake and NCST step up in this view:

Conference	Team	Rec	FEI	OFEI	Rk	DFEI	Rk2
ACC	Notre Dame	9-1	0.74	0.65	29	0.79	10
ACC	Wake Forest	8-1	0.71	1.32	4	0.06	59
ACC	NC State	6-3	0.55	0.31	50	0.79	11
ACC	Pittsburgh	7-2	0.45	0.49	40	0.39	30
ACC	Louisville	4-5	0.37	0.5	38	0.26	44
ACC	Clemson	6-3	0.34	-0.3	91	0.97	7
ACC	Florida State	4-5	0.3	0.43	44	0.28	41
ACC	North Carolina	5-5	0.28	0.77	22	-0.23	83
ACC	Virginia	5-4	0.2	1.06	8	-0.64	106
ACC	Miami	4-5	0.18	0.22	59	0.18	51
ACC	Virginia Tech	4-5	0.17	-0.03	72	0.13	54
ACC	Syracuse	4-5	0.1	0.15	64	0.07	58
ACC	Boston College	5-4	-0.08	-0.25	85	-0.02	63
ACC	Georgia Tech	2-7	-0.17	-0.04	75	-0.6	105
ACC	Duke	2-7	-0.65	-0.88	120	-0.48	97

 

[TruckStick]

FEI numbers (from bcftoys.com) should give a better idea than the chart above. Wake and NCST step up in this view:

Conference	Team	Rec	FEI	OFEI	Rk	DFEI	Rk2
ACC	Notre Dame	9-1	0.74	0.65	29	0.79	10
ACC	Wake Forest	8-1	0.71	1.32	4	0.06	59
ACC	NC State	6-3	0.55	0.31	50	0.79	11
ACC	Pittsburgh	7-2	0.45	0.49	40	0.39	30
ACC	Louisville	4-5	0.37	0.5	38	0.26	44
ACC	Clemson	6-3	0.34	-0.3	91	0.97	7
ACC	Florida State	4-5	0.3	0.43	44	0.28	41
ACC	North Carolina	5-5	0.28	0.77	22	-0.23	83
ACC	Virginia	5-4	0.2	1.06	8	-0.64	106
ACC	Miami	4-5	0.18	0.22	59	0.18	51
ACC	Virginia Tech	4-5	0.17	-0.03	72	0.13	54
ACC	Syracuse	4-5	0.1	0.15	64	0.07	58
ACC	Boston College	5-4	-0.08	-0.25	85	-0.02	63
ACC	Georgia Tech	2-7	-0.17	-0.04	75	-0.6	105
ACC	Duke	2-7	-0.65	-0.88	120	-0.48	97

Don’t care how you slice it. CDP’s offense isn’t explosive or great. His decision making is questionable all the time after the script runs out.

 

[UgaBlows]

Don’t care how you slice it. CDP’s offense isn’t explosive or great. His decision making is questionable all the time after the script runs out.

The only thing explosive about it is Gibbs

 

[CuseJacket]

Don’t care how you slice it. CDP’s offense isn’t explosive or great.

I sliced some data on explosive plays:

• Georgia Tech is #32 in college football in plays of 20+ yards. Tied with Georgia.
• GT is #25 in plays of 50+ yards. Tied with Wake Forest, among other teams.
• 60+ yards? Move us on up to #18.
• 70+ yards!? Move us on up to #7.

Link: http://www.cfbstats.com/2021/leader/national/team/offense/split01/category30/sort05.html

His decision making is questionable all the time after the script runs out.

There's a lot of data you could have chosen to use to back up your comments, because we have many flaws on offense. Choosing to go straight opinion probably isn't going to influence anyone, but maybe the point was just to vent. "Questionable all the time" is another way to lose anyone who might otherwise engage. He is not questionable all the time, unless you are committed in the belief that he should be questioned every play call including those that produced touchdowns.

Not a rule that you post differently, just sharing my thoughts.

 

[slugboy]

We’ve played 3 of the top 10 NFL QB prospects this year, and two of them are probably first rounders

 

[ibeattetris]

I sliced some data on explosive plays:

• Georgia Tech is #32 in college football in plays of 20+ yards. Tied with Georgia.
• GT is #25 in plays of 50+ yards. Tied with Wake Forest, among other teams.
• 60+ yards? Move us on up to #18.
• 70+ yards!? Move us on up to #7.

Link: http://www.cfbstats.com/2021/leader/national/team/offense/split01/category30/sort05.html



There's a lot of data you could have chosen to use to back up your comments, because we have many flaws on offense. Choosing to go straight opinion probably isn't going to influence anyone, but maybe the point was just to vent. "Questionable all the time" is another way to lose anyone who might otherwise engage. He is not questionable all the time, unless you are committed in the belief that he should be questioned every play call including those that produced touchdowns.

Not a rule that you post differently, just sharing my thoughts.

Yeah, if anything, we are explosive at the expense of having almost no consistency. It's actually impressive to be rated so poorly on offense with how explosive we can be.

 

[TruckStick]

Fair enough. My gauge is the eye test. We aren’t striking fear in any defense unless Gibbs gets free. We are wildly inconsistent and the plan seems random at times.

I guess randomness into a few explosive plays here and there will get you wins?

 

[TromboneJacket]

Yeah, if anything, we are explosive at the expense of having almost no consistency. It's actually impressive to be rated so poorly on offense with how explosive we can be.

But when you think about it, explosiveness shouldn’t have a negative impact on consistency unless your QB is ignoring open short routes in favor of risky long throws. Maybe that’s happening a bit, but I think the biggest cause of our lack of consistency seems to be the OL. Of course, other positions could always stand to get better.

 

[GTpdm]

I guess randomness into a few explosive plays here and there will get you wins?

Apparently, only three.

I’d rather have fewer explosive plays and more moving-the-chains plays, myself.

 

[Skeptic]

I’m on a tablet right now, so I don’t have as much edit freedom as I would on a laptop, but I saw F+ offense vs defense stats today, and I wondered where we would land (not well, I’d think)

I ran a simpler PPA (Predicted Points Added, same as EPA) chart. The horizontal is offense, and you want to be as far to the right on that as possible (every play is big time). The vertical is defensive PPA, and it’s the opposite—you want to give up as little as possible.
UVA is about the worst on defense, and about the best on offense. Clemson is the reverse, and that puts them in the middle—interesting games, and a middling bowl.
This year is not something for Tony Elliot (Clemson’s OC) to put on his resume; it might be a reason for him to update his resume, though.
Wake is as bad on defense as we are, but their offense is great, and that puts them in contention.
We’re nearly the bottom of the conference, but Duke is at the bottom in a class by themselves.
So, with an efficient offense, we’re bowling. We’re an average offense, but we’re feast or famine. We need to either feast a lot more or cut out the famines. With an above average defense, we’re bowling. We’re a terrible defense—not just statistically, but by the eye test too.
We’re close to VT and Miami, not that they’re anything to brag about. One of their coaches got fired, and the other one might.
Pitt is the class of the conference this year, but Wake and UVA play well enough on offense to upset them, and NCST is the same on defense.
View attachment 11602

You are right about 2021 and Elliott's resume. Mostly. The flip side is that it is very difficult for an OC to operate without an offensive line and a frankly dreadful quarterback,. who is the Rex Barney of college football. I think he will get more credit in the rear view mirror.

 

[Lee]

Apparently, only three.

I’d rather have fewer explosive plays and more moving-the-chains plays, myself.

If we had a good OL we could do that. We could do both.

 

[ibeattetris]

But when you think about it, explosiveness shouldn’t have a negative impact on consistency unless your QB is ignoring open short routes in favor of risky long throws. Maybe that’s happening a bit, but I think the biggest cause of our lack of consistency seems to be the OL. Of course, other positions could always stand to get better.

I think my word choice led to it sounding like I was insinuating our explosiveness was the cause of our lack of consistency. I wasn’t meaning to imply that.

 

[slugboy]

Duke is the team you play when you need to make a highlight reel

 

[Northeast Stinger]

No words.

 

[CuseJacket]

Apparently, only three.

I’d rather have fewer explosive plays and more moving-the-chains plays, myself.

Wish granted