2021 ACC and Competition News

[roadkill]

Pretty sure we will be underdogs in all remaining games this year.

You're probably correct, but winning 2 of our remaining 4 ACC games is not too much of a stretch. With half a season's data, several predictive computer rankings have the 3 remaining Coastal teams on our schedule ranked in the same vicinity as us (midrange of FBS). Hoping the bye week allows us to heal up a bit so we will have more depth for these upcoming games. Again, we may be slight underdogs but we have a decent shot at ending the season 4-4 in the coastal which could put us in third place. Not exactly a lofty goal but a marked improvement over the last two years.

 

[slugboy]

Pretty sure we will be underdogs in all remaining games this year.

Starting the season, we were favored for NIU, KSU, and Duke. We are minor underdogs for the next four

 

[LongforDodd]

As of today, Sagarin has us rated <4 pts behind the rest of those on our ACC schedule. BC as the highest of the four.

 

[LargeFO]

D’Eric King is done for year. Miami game totally winnable.

 

[TruckStick]

if Miami rallies from here that will be impressive. I think they are cooked. Virginia and VT will be tough sledding.

 

[UgaBlows]

if Miami rallies from here that will be impressive. I think they are cooked. Virginia and VT will be tough sledding.

I’ve watched Uva a couple times, they ain’t nothing special, but up in Charlottesville is always tough for us whatever reason

 

[slugboy]

I’ve watched Uva a couple times, they ain’t nothing special, but up in Charlottesville is always tough for us whatever reason

UVA isn’t good, but they’re good at passing, and we’re poor at pass defense. It’s a bad matchup for us in that aspect of the game.

Here’s the UVA-Miami advanced stats. They got 4 sacks against Miami, which is a problem for use to solve in pass pro. Virginia’s pass defense looks pretty good. They look vulnerable to the rush.

https://gameonpaper.com/cfb/game/401282646

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

You're probably correct, but winning 2 of our remaining 4 ACC games is not too much of a stretch. With half a season's data, several predictive computer rankings have the 3 remaining Coastal teams on our schedule ranked in the same vicinity as us (midrange of FBS). Hoping the bye week allows us to heal up a bit so we will have more depth for these upcoming games. Again, we may be slight underdogs but we have a decent shot at ending the season 4-4 in the coastal which could put us in third place. Not exactly a lofty goal but a marked improvement over the last two years.

I mean, it's possible we could go 3-1 across our remaining ACC schedule and finish 6-6 for the year. (I still don't see us beating either ND or uga) Of the remaining games, Miami or BC are, IMO, the most likely remaining win as they have lost their starting QBs. Miami has also been wildly inconsistent all season. We are, IMO, a better team than UVA, but the game is in the cursed stadium, so we likely lose there.

 

[FlatsLander]

UVA isn’t good, but they’re good at passing, and we’re poor at pass defense. It’s a bad matchup for us in that aspect of the game.

Here’s the UVA-Miami advanced stats. They got 4 sacks against Miami, which is a problem for use to solve in pass pro. Virginia’s pass defense looks pretty good. They look vulnerable to the rush.

https://gameonpaper.com/cfb/game/401282646

How does the UVA OL look? If they're anything like UNC, that helps us out. I wonder since they're so bad at running the ball if we go 3-2-6 or something on defense haha.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

UVA isn’t good, but they’re good at passing, and we’re poor at pass defense. It’s a bad matchup for us in that aspect of the game.

Here’s the UVA-Miami advanced stats. They got 4 sacks against Miami, which is a problem for use to solve in pass pro. Virginia’s pass defense looks pretty good. They look vulnerable to the rush.

https://gameonpaper.com/cfb/game/401282646

According to football outsiders OLine stats, we are among the worst in the nation in giving up sacks.

2021 COLLEGE FOOTBALL OFFENSIVE LINE STATS | Football Outsiders

Updated through 1/11/22.

www.footballoutsiders.com

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

How does the UVA OL look? If they're anything like UNC, that helps us out. I wonder since they're so bad at running the ball if we go 3-2-6 or something on defense haha.

According to the same stats I referenced, they are pretty middle of the road except for passing downs. It's possible that a good QB is making a mediocre OL look better though...

2021 COLLEGE FOOTBALL OFFENSIVE LINE STATS | Football Outsiders

Updated through 1/11/22.

www.footballoutsiders.com

 

[RamblinRed]

Gibbs has been considerably better as a receiver and kick returner than as a RB this year - those 2 areas don't rely on the offensive line as much. Overall has he 77 carries for 279 yds (3.6 yd avg), with a long of 29 yds and a 46.5 ypg.

It's considerably worse against ACC competion. So far in the ACC has has 48 carries for 128 yds (2.66 yd avg), 32 ypg. Take out the UNC game, which is the only game GT has effectively run the ball against ACC defenses and it is 34 carries for 60 yds (1.76 yds avg) and 20 ypg.

IMO you have to start Simms as he is the only thing that gives us a chance rushing the ball against ACC defenses. Overall he is second behind Gibbs rushing but in ACC games he is way ahead of him.

Other than against UNC, which has a poor rushing D, GT's run game has largely been stoned by ACC defenses and most of the yardage is coming from Sims.

I worry about every ACC game, but I worry that UVA is sort of a bad matchup for us. Basically they are just going to sling the ball all over the field. Their OL is mediocre, but is pretty strong on passing downs. If we can't get to Armstrong then it is going to be a long day for the defense. if we don't get a better pash rush I worry that game is going to loom more like Pitt where a good throwing AB just bides his time and picks us apart. it's a game I feel like the offense is going to have to score in the 30's to have a good shot to win.

 

[roadkill]

I mean, it's possible we could go 3-1 across our remaining ACC schedule and finish 6-6 for the year. (I still don't see us beating either ND or uga) Of the remaining games, Miami or BC are, IMO, the most likely remaining win as they have lost their starting QBs. Miami has also been wildly inconsistent all season. We are, IMO, a better team than UVA, but the game is in the cursed stadium, so we likely lose there.

Agree with you on Miami and UVA, but not sure about BC. BC, even with a backup QB, is playing better than expected so far. At least we get them and VT at home.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Agree with you on Miami and UVA, but not sure about BC. BC, even with a backup QB, is playing better than expected so far. At least we get them and VT at home.

BC is a wild card to me. According to OFEI and DFEI we are neck and neck with each other, them being slightly better offensively and us being slightly better defensively. BC really hasn't beaten anyone yet, since Mizzou isn't particularly good, but will still be a tough out for most teams. With similar stat lines so far this season, I'd like to think the sheer difference in talent alone on our side could sway the matchup in our favor. We should still be the underdog, but should likely be only a slight dog in that game.

 

[CuseJacket]

Solid schadenfreude from the VT side

 

[iceeater1969]

“Should have lost?” Not sure what that means. When I saw how Tech willed itself to overcome every adversity to win that came I predicted they would go to a major bowl. Winning those kinds of games is what champions do.

In 2014 after they lost to Duke and a terrible unc team - i was really bummed.
Were u still confident??.
When I watched the slaughter of NCSt when we changed to giant OL blocking, we got season tickets. That team was loaded w sr skill talent.

Imo, in 2 years we will be ready to pay Collins or buy a new coach. Just not enough depth now to be ""good"" .

 

[g0lftime]

That 2014 comeback win against GSU had some of the same excitement of the Duke comeback Saturday. We lost to Duke in 2014 after we had a lead and the game was paused due to a thunderstorm. We came out flat after the delay and they came back to win. Always have to cover the TE against Duke.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

In 2014 after they lost to Duke and a terrible unc team - i was really bummed.
Were u still confident??.
When I watched the slaughter of NCSt when we changed to giant OL blocking, we got season tickets. That team was loaded w sr skill talent.

Imo, in 2 years we will be ready to pay Collins or buy a new coach. Just not enough depth now to be ""good"" .

Yes. I was confident for the entire 2014 season. I hated the losses but sometimes, even with the best preparation, you overlook teams or play down to teams. Tech played 8 teams with winning records in 2014 and 3 teams with 10 wins for the year. We had a really good team that with the right breaks (fewer injuries, including losing two of our best players) might have been in the national conversation.

 

[g0lftime]

UNC spoiled 1990 undefeated season with a tie after we ran all over the field on them and that loss to them in 2014 was tough to swallow. No defense in that one. I think the 1990 UNC team lost 9 or 10 games and our tie. Clay fumbled a punt inside our 10 which gave them an easy TD. That tie kept us from being undefeated.

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

I would dare say that our schedule is weaker than I thought during the preseason. Ugag And BC are stronger than I thought.