2020 MLB Draft

[GTNavyNuke]

OK, attached is my guess for our players being drafted high enough to leave. I put the basis in the details of the attached. Leaving due to draft:
Hughes, Webb, Waddell, Guldberg

Here's what I thought about:

• How many years our players have left after COVID-19 extra year.
• How they performed in the limited season and summer ball as well as whether they have been previously drafted or Perfect Game rankings.
• MLB draft in June 2020 has only limited reduction in demand / payout. By June, the situation with COVID-19 will be more defined. I don't think we are going to see a MLB season with many fans in the stands through the October World Series. I think testing will be good enough that everyone on the field will be tested and certified before playing. This is going to reduce the income for MLB. TV royalties have already been granted and that is the majority of income I believe (people who know MLB are welcome to add to my hopeful "facts"). So only a limited hit on MLB income. If MLB isn't playing by June, I reserve the right to change my free guess.
• Who is coming in next year. I'd guess like others, and without knowing their situation, that Parada and DeLeo won't but Grissom and others will. Again, the robustness of the MLB draft will affect their situation. If there is a very low payout this year, it would make a lot of sense for Parade and DeLeo to come to GT and get drafted in three years. Especially as a catcher and OF who are unlikely to get hurt.

Possibly leaving due to lack of playing time next year:
Rigby, Brace, Mannelly, Taylor

Feel free to comment or disagree. We don't have much else to do Again, details attached.

Here's just the summary reason for each draft eligible player:

• Jonathan Hughes Proven talent, back in form.
• Jackson Webb Close call, with only next year will probably take any offer. Great fielder but that doesn't pay bills
• Andy Archer With 4.2 ERA in 10.2 IP after injury, doubt good enough offer.
• Paxton Rigby Too much competition to come back
• Luke Waddell Solid hitter & team captain for a reason
• Jake Brace Only 2.0 IP. A lot of competition next year.
• Michael Guldberg Solid hitter.
• Cameron Turley As second catcher will leave if Parada comes to GT.
• Baron Radcliff Low batting average but great power. Could stay another year to improve $
• Joseph Mannelly Didn't play, a lot of competition next year
• Colin Hall Stay to improve next year draft. In a batting slump and didn't do summer ball with injury.
• Hugh Chapman Developed this year and with extra year worth staying.
• Jamie Taylor As third catcher will probably leave.
• Austin Wilhite While interesting pitcher, hasn't proven himself once there is a scouting report.
• Brant Hurter Close call, but with two years probably comes back. Will draft high next year.

 

[THWG]

OK, attached is my guess for our players being drafted high enough to leave. I put the basis in the details of the attached. Leaving due to draft:
Hughes, Webb, Waddell, Guldberg

Here's what I thought about:

• How many years our players have left after COVID-19 extra year.
• How they performed in the limited season and summer ball as well as whether they have been previously drafted or Perfect Game rankings.
• MLB draft in June 2020 has only limited reduction in demand / payout. By June, the situation with COVID-19 will be more defined. I don't think we are going to see a MLB season with many fans in the stands through the October World Series. I think testing will be good enough that everyone on the field will be tested and certified before playing. This is going to reduce the income for MLB. TV royalties have already been granted and that is the majority of income I believe (people who know MLB are welcome to add to my hopeful "facts"). So only a limited hit on MLB income. If MLB isn't playing by June, I reserve the right to change my free guess.
• Who is coming in next year. I'd guess like others, and without knowing their situation, that Parada and DeLeo won't but Grissom and others will. Again, the robustness of the MLB draft will affect their situation. If there is a very low payout this year, it would make a lot of sense for Parade and DeLeo to come to GT and get drafted in three years. Especially as a catcher and OF who are unlikely to get hurt.

Possibly leaving due to lack of playing time next year:
Rigby, Brace, Mannelly, Taylor

Feel free to comment or disagree. We don't have much else to do Again, details attached.

Here's just the summary reason for each draft eligible player:

• Jonathan Hughes Proven talent, back in form.
• Jackson Webb Close call, with only next year will probably take any offer. Great fielder but that doesn't pay bills
• Andy Archer With 4.2 ERA in 10.2 IP after injury, doubt good enough offer.
• Paxton Rigby Too much competition to come back
• Luke Waddell Solid hitter & team captain for a reason
• Jake Brace Only 2.0 IP. A lot of competition next year.
• Michael Guldberg Solid hitter.
• Cameron Turley As second catcher will leave if Parada comes to GT.
• Baron Radcliff Low batting average but great power. Could stay another year to improve $
• Joseph Mannelly Didn't play, a lot of competition next year
• Colin Hall Stay to improve next year draft. In a batting slump and didn't do summer ball with injury.
• Hugh Chapman Developed this year and with extra year worth staying.
• Jamie Taylor As third catcher will probably leave.
• Austin Wilhite While interesting pitcher, hasn't proven himself once there is a scouting report.
• Brant Hurter Close call, but with two years probably comes back. Will draft high next year.

Mannelly was still recovering from Tommy John this year. I kind of expected to see him middle of the year, but I don't remember him being on the roster at all.

 

[YellowJacketFan2018]

OK, attached is my guess for our players being drafted high enough to leave. I put the basis in the details of the attached. Leaving due to draft:
Hughes, Webb, Waddell, Guldberg

Here's what I thought about:

• How many years our players have left after COVID-19 extra year.
• How they performed in the limited season and summer ball as well as whether they have been previously drafted or Perfect Game rankings.
• MLB draft in June 2020 has only limited reduction in demand / payout. By June, the situation with COVID-19 will be more defined. I don't think we are going to see a MLB season with many fans in the stands through the October World Series. I think testing will be good enough that everyone on the field will be tested and certified before playing. This is going to reduce the income for MLB. TV royalties have already been granted and that is the majority of income I believe (people who know MLB are welcome to add to my hopeful "facts"). So only a limited hit on MLB income. If MLB isn't playing by June, I reserve the right to change my free guess.
• Who is coming in next year. I'd guess like others, and without knowing their situation, that Parada and DeLeo won't but Grissom and others will. Again, the robustness of the MLB draft will affect their situation. If there is a very low payout this year, it would make a lot of sense for Parade and DeLeo to come to GT and get drafted in three years. Especially as a catcher and OF who are unlikely to get hurt.

Possibly leaving due to lack of playing time next year:
Rigby, Brace, Mannelly, Taylor

Feel free to comment or disagree. We don't have much else to do Again, details attached.

Here's just the summary reason for each draft eligible player:

• Jonathan Hughes Proven talent, back in form.
• Jackson Webb Close call, with only next year will probably take any offer. Great fielder but that doesn't pay bills
• Andy Archer With 4.2 ERA in 10.2 IP after injury, doubt good enough offer.
• Paxton Rigby Too much competition to come back
• Luke Waddell Solid hitter & team captain for a reason
• Jake Brace Only 2.0 IP. A lot of competition next year.
• Michael Guldberg Solid hitter.
• Cameron Turley As second catcher will leave if Parada comes to GT.
• Baron Radcliff Low batting average but great power. Could stay another year to improve $
• Joseph Mannelly Didn't play, a lot of competition next year
• Colin Hall Stay to improve next year draft. In a batting slump and didn't do summer ball with injury.
• Hugh Chapman Developed this year and with extra year worth staying.
• Jamie Taylor As third catcher will probably leave.
• Austin Wilhite While interesting pitcher, hasn't proven himself once there is a scouting report.
• Brant Hurter Close call, but with two years probably comes back. Will draft high next year.

There are rumors going around that MLB may try to save money and not even hold a MLB Draft this year

 

[GTNavyNuke]

There are rumors going around that MLB may try to save money and not even hold a MLB Draft this year

Rumors. If there is no draft, players can sign undrafted. Unless that practice is changed too.

The only way I see no draft is if MLB has cancelled the season by June. I doubt / hope not. But if that happens, we have much bigger problems.

 

[JacketOff]

The only things “wrong” with this list is assuming guys will leave based on lack of playing time. College baseball isn’t like college football or basketball. Scholarships are extremely limited, and teams very rarely have spots for guys to transfer in unless they factor in for some JuCo guys. Since Brace, Turley, and Taylor won’t be grad transfers, there’s very little reason for them to leave. Since there’s no guarantee of a scholarship available for them at many places, their best bet is definitely to stay at GT, make some memories, and get their degree.

I said in the other thread I believe Austin and Nick Wilhite are a package deal for the ‘21 season. Either both of them are back, or neither of them are.

Mentioned above but Mannelly was still recovering from his TJ. He was probably only a week or 2 from being back at the time the season was cancelled. He’ll definitely be back next year, and probably one of the biggest bullpen pieces. DBo really like JoMan. Upper 80s low 90s fastball with a really good 12-6 breaking ball from the left side. Was also showing the ability to throw strikes consistently in his rehab side sessions.

Webb and Rigby are highly doubtful to come back. Webb will be graduated and 23 years old. Rigby hasn’t seen much playing time over his career, and really has no incentive to play another season.

Like you mentioned Nuke, how the draft actually sets up will determine many other variables. Whether the draft is cut down, moved back, or cancelled all together will have a lot to say who comes back. I don’t have any idea how teams would try to sign guys as UFA with literally everyone in that pool. A lot of questions left unanswered still.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

......
Like you mentioned Nuke, how the draft actually sets up will determine many other variables. Whether the draft is cut down, moved back, or cancelled all together will have a lot to say who comes back. I don’t have any idea how teams would try to sign guys as UFA with literally everyone in that pool. A lot of questions left unanswered still.

Thanks for the comments about those who may come back.

One other thing I realized is the minor league part is really important to what happens to the MLB. Minor leagues are run on a shoestring budget from what I've heard and not getting fans in the stands for minor league games could prevent the minor league season. It'll be a question of which scenario loses less money.

Might make sense for all the teams to agree to no ascensions (new players) to the minors for a year. So no draft and no undrafted. These are different times and I keep hoping to wake up from this nightmare.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

The only things “wrong” with this list is assuming guys will leave based on lack of playing time. College baseball isn’t like college football or basketball. Scholarships are extremely limited, and teams very rarely have spots for guys to transfer in unless they factor in for some JuCo guys. Since Brace, Turley, and Taylor won’t be grad transfers, there’s very little reason for them to leave. Since there’s no guarantee of a scholarship available for them at many places, their best bet is definitely to stay at GT, make some memories, and get their degree.
.......

When I said leave or gone, I meant from the team. Not gone from GT. I would expect/hope a lot of players get their degree regardless of whether they are on the team or not. Most of these guys who don't play don't have scholarships and it would be tough to see them doing all the work on the team without an expectation of playing or getting a draft shot.

I may just not understand. I was certainly wrong about Mannelly since I think he'll stay based on what you and others said.

The other thing about not having a draft for a year is that we would almost certainly have Parada and DeLeo come to GT for development and playing time (and Grissom even though I guess he comes either way).

That situation would apply to other elite programs who have signed top 100 players. Miami (6), UNC (3), UVa (3) to GT (2). Of course, Vandy (6), Florida (6) and Arkansas (6) continue to roll. Imagine trying to get playing time at Vandy!!

 

[eokerholm]

TxTech took 22.
Luckily we only grabbed 13....

 

[eokerholm]

https://www.gwinnettdailypost.com/s...cle_a51674e2-6c71-11ea-81d8-5f75ed8e2e58.html

 

[ball4life66]

 

[eokerholm]

No draft really screws up stuff....

Now lets hope they just give Seniors a relief or no one.....

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I'll wait to reproject our draft till we know more. So many scenarios. My bottom line is that given the draft and eligibility, what is going to limit a lot of players coming back to play on the team is the prospect (or lack thereof) of playing time.

 

[eokerholm]

5 rounds in as late as July

https://d1baseball.com/columns/mlb-draft-announcement-gives-college-baseball-some-clarity/

 

[FredJacket]

Long article. You'll to read it for context on the parts I quoted about how college D1 folks may be impacted below.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/new-deal-saves-2020-mlb-draft-but-hurts-incoming-talent/

This will likely force a significant number of high school prospects to go to college. Some will opt to head to junior colleges to re-enter next year’s draft, while others will keep to their NCAA Division I commitments to enter the 2023 draft (and in some cases 2022 if they are old enough to qualify). But those incoming freshmen will face crowded rosters. Many draftable juniors will also likely be left out of the draft in this arrangement. This agreement will make the NCAA’s decision whether to extend eligibility even more important.

The NCAA has yet to decide whether it will extend an extra year of eligibility for all D-I spring-sport athletes, just seniors or none at all. If the NCAA decides to extend eligibility for no D-I spring-sport athletes or only seniors, it would leave undrafted juniors with a pair of poor choices. In a normal year, a college junior picked between the sixth and 15th rounds could expect to normally sign for between $125,000 and $250,000.

Assuming the draft is five rounds In 2020, if a college junior goes undrafted, he can either sign for a maximum of $20,000 or return to school, knowing his negotiating leverage will be limited the following year as a senior sign. Depending on the NCAA’s decision on eligibility, college juniors would also have to risk returning and competing for bonuses next year with a much larger pool of senior players on top of competing for playing time with an extremely talented incoming freshman class.

 

[YellowJacketFan2018]

Long article. You'll to read it for context on the parts I quoted about how college D1 folks may be impacted below.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/new-deal-saves-2020-mlb-draft-but-hurts-incoming-talent/

This will likely force a significant number of high school prospects to go to college. Some will opt to head to junior colleges to re-enter next year’s draft, while others will keep to their NCAA Division I commitments to enter the 2023 draft (and in some cases 2022 if they are old enough to qualify). But those incoming freshmen will face crowded rosters. Many draftable juniors will also likely be left out of the draft in this arrangement. This agreement will make the NCAA’s decision whether to extend eligibility even more important.

The NCAA has yet to decide whether it will extend an extra year of eligibility for all D-I spring-sport athletes, just seniors or none at all. If the NCAA decides to extend eligibility for no D-I spring-sport athletes or only seniors, it would leave undrafted juniors with a pair of poor choices. In a normal year, a college junior picked between the sixth and 15th rounds could expect to normally sign for between $125,000 and $250,000.

Assuming the draft is five rounds In 2020, if a college junior goes undrafted, he can either sign for a maximum of $20,000 or return to school, knowing his negotiating leverage will be limited the following year as a senior sign. Depending on the NCAA’s decision on eligibility, college juniors would also have to risk returning and competing for bonuses next year with a much larger pool of senior players on top of competing for playing time with an extremely talented incoming freshman class.

It sounds like there will be an upsurge of talent in college baseball

 

[JacketOff]

It sounds like there will be an upsurge of talent in college baseball

Which is true. But it’s going to end up costing probably hundreds of very talented players upwards of $100,000+ after next year’s class. MLB has found a way to screw juniors out of their signing bonuses just like they have seniors for decades. If they don’t step up next year and sign seniors for their rightful value after they screw them as juniors in this year’s draft, it’s going to be bad.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Which is true. But it’s going to end up costing probably hundreds of very talented players upwards of $100,000+ after next year’s class. MLB has found a way to screw juniors out of their signing bonuses just like they have seniors for decades. If they don’t step up next year and sign seniors for their rightful value after they screw them as juniors in this year’s draft, it’s going to be bad.

Everyone is screwed. The MLB business model for the next few years may be broken badly.

On D1 Baseball they had a podcast yesterday and were speculating that the NCAA wouldn't make an eligibility ruling on Monday. But wait till June. Time will tell.

If I were in their place, I'd wait as long as possible as only time will bring more clarity. The massive fear for the NCAA having lost March Madness is losing college football in the fall. Talk about a hit to their business model. What the NCAA does for spring sports could be a precedent for fall sports.

We just don't know what will happen, or more accurately, I sure as hell don't. Wuhan China is going to end their lockdown on April 8th, 2 -1/2 months after starting the lockdown. And that was a real lock down. (Great analysis at this site which will lead to my song of the day: https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc200326/ )

 

[YellowJacketFan2018]

Everyone is screwed. The MLB business model for the next few years may be broken badly.

On D1 Baseball they had a podcast yesterday and were speculating that the NCAA wouldn't make an eligibility ruling on Monday. But wait till June. Time will tell.

If I were in their place, I'd wait as long as possible as only time will bring more clarity. The massive fear for the NCAA having lost March Madness is losing college football in the fall. Talk about a hit to their business model. What the NCAA does for spring sports could be a precedent for fall sports.

We just don't know what will happen, or more accurately, I sure as hell don't. Wuhan China is going to end their lockdown on April 8th, 2 -1/2 months after starting the lockdown. And that was a real lock down. (Great analysis at this site which will lead to my song of the day: https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc200326/ )

I saw a story online that the Chinese were worried that a second wave of Coronavirus would start up sometime soon

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I saw a story online that the Chinese were worried that a second wave of Coronavirus would start up sometime soon

I don't think this is the post to focus on SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) (even though I have). But I'm not going over to the political crap on the other posts where everyone is displaying their views. But yes, reading https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc200326/ later waves are expected until 62% (or whatever the real number is) have had the disease. NYC may get under control but then Phoenix or Atlanta or where ever may become a hot spot.

Back to baseball, I think it's hard to know what is going to happen with the 1) MLB draft, 2) NCAA eligibility, 3) financial viability of MLB, 4) whatever else.

We live in interesting times. The most interesting since WWII probably. It's only been three weekends of GT baseball we have missed but it seems like eons ago.

 

[YellowJacketFan2018]

I don't think this is the post to focus on SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) (even though I have). But I'm not going over to the political crap on the other posts where everyone is displaying their views. But yes, reading https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc200326/ later waves are expected until 62% (or whatever the real number is) have had the disease. NYC may get under control but then Phoenix or Atlanta or where ever may become a hot spot.

Back to baseball, I think it's hard to know what is going to happen with the 1) MLB draft, 2) NCAA eligibility, 3) financial viability of MLB, 4) whatever else.

We live in interesting times. The most interesting since WWII probably. It's only been three weekends of GT baseball we have missed but it seems like eons ago.

Y'all can delete that post if you want