2019 FEI and PPD Data

GTNavyNuke

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Happy game day! Sorry for the late post. I usually do these during a lunch break, but work this week has been out of line.

We go up another two places in overall. Our offense made significant jump week over week. I would love to see that trend continue. Defense continues its downward skid.
The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) is a college football rating system based on opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, representing the per possession scoring advantage a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. Unadjusted possession efficiency (PE) is calculated as a function of offensive, defensive, and special teams game splits. Schedule strength is represented by each team's average per possession opponent adjustment (OA). Opponent-adjusted offense ratings (OFEI), opponent-adjusted defense ratings (DFEI), and opponent-adjusted special teams ratings (SFEI) are calculated in a similar manner as overall FEI ratings.
View attachment 7228

Offense:
OFEI Offense Ratings (OFEI) represent the per possession scoring advantage a team's offense would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average defense. Unadjusted offensive possession efficiency (OPE) is calculated as a function of offensive game splits. Schedule strength is represented by each team's average per possession offensive opponent adjustment (OOA). Touchdown rate (OTD) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a touchdown. First Down rate (OFD) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a touchdown or at least one first down. Available Yards percentage (OAY) is the total yards earned by the offense divided by the total yards available to be earned based on starting field position. Explosive Drive rate (OED) is the percentage of offensive drives that average at least ten yards per play. Busted Drive rate (OBD) is the percentage of offensive drives that earn zero or negative yards. Turnover rate (OTO) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a fumble or interception.
View attachment 7229
We increased our touch down rate while lowering our turnover rate. Pretty good key to success there (y) OTO was the offensive stat I asked to improve this week and the offense listened. This was definitely our best offensive performance of the year, and I look forward to more weeks of continued success. Four of our ten drives were still three and outs (or less since one interception on second play of a drive). I don't expect this offense to score points on drives starting inside our 5, but we have to get better at getting a first down or two in those situations.

Defense:
DFEI Defense Ratings (DFEI) represent the per possession scoring advantage a team's defense would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average offense. Unadjusted defensive possession efficiency (DPE) is calculated as a function of defensive game splits. Schedule strength is represented by each team's average per possession defensive opponent adjustment (DOA). Touchdown rate (DTD) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that result in a touchdown. First Down rate (DFD) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that result in a touchdown or at least one first down. Available Yards percentage (DAY) is the total yards surrendered by the defense divided by the total yards available to be earned based on starting field position. Explosive Drive rate (DED) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that average at least ten yards per play. Busted Drive rate (DBD) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that earn zero or negative yards. Turnover rate (DTO) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that result in a fumble or interception.
View attachment 7231
Defense continues to slide. Early games against weak opponents has shown that the defense is still a work in progress. Pretty much every stat here is worse than last week.

Teams are ranked in the table below by net points scored per drive (NPD), the difference between points scored per offensive drive (OPD) and points allowed per opponent offensive drive (DPD). Points per drive from long starting field position for the offense (OLD) and opponent offenses (DLD) are calculated on possessions that begin inside the offense's own 20-yard line. Points per drive from middle starting field position for the offense (OMD) and opponent offenses (DMD) are calculated on possessions that begin from the offense's own 20-yard line to its own 40-yard line. Points per drive from short starting field position for the offense (OSD) and opponent offenses (DSD) are calculated on possessions that begin less than 60 yards from the end zone.
109 Georgia Tech
Net point score per drive: -1.02 (109)

Offense
PPD: 1.40 (122)
PPD (long field position): 0.14 (129)
PPD (medium): 1.64 (94)
PPD (short): 2.73 (104)

Defense
PPD: 2.42 (80)
PPD (long): 1.61 (66)
PPD (medium): 2.02 (66)
PPD (short) 3.87 (89)

Long drives continue to be the bane of our offense and short drives continue to be a thorn for the defense. In another thread I mentioned that if we gave UVA way too many short field last week, but even with that, had we held them to our average DSD on the season, we are tied going into the final drive. I hate that I keep harping on this, but the defense has got to be better at holding teams to fgs in drives of 60 yards or less.[/QUOTE]

I think a punt fair catch on the 2 is a turnover with our offense. Led to a short field courtesy of ST.

Hopefully we fair catch all KOs or let them go OOB. And no punt fair catches inside the 10. I expect VT to be well coached on ST and tempt us with high KOs to about the 7. We usually haven't returned to the 25 and often get a penalty to back us up even more. UVa was nice and KO'd into the end zone.
 

ibeattetris

Helluva Engineer
Messages
3,604
Happy game day! Sorry for the late post. I usually do these during a lunch break, but work this week has been out of line.

We go up another two places in overall. Our offense made significant jump week over week. I would love to see that trend continue. Defense continues its downward skid.
The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) is a college football rating system based on opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, representing the per possession scoring advantage a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. Unadjusted possession efficiency (PE) is calculated as a function of offensive, defensive, and special teams game splits. Schedule strength is represented by each team's average per possession opponent adjustment (OA). Opponent-adjusted offense ratings (OFEI), opponent-adjusted defense ratings (DFEI), and opponent-adjusted special teams ratings (SFEI) are calculated in a similar manner as overall FEI ratings.
View attachment 7228

Offense:
OFEI Offense Ratings (OFEI) represent the per possession scoring advantage a team's offense would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average defense. Unadjusted offensive possession efficiency (OPE) is calculated as a function of offensive game splits. Schedule strength is represented by each team's average per possession offensive opponent adjustment (OOA). Touchdown rate (OTD) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a touchdown. First Down rate (OFD) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a touchdown or at least one first down. Available Yards percentage (OAY) is the total yards earned by the offense divided by the total yards available to be earned based on starting field position. Explosive Drive rate (OED) is the percentage of offensive drives that average at least ten yards per play. Busted Drive rate (OBD) is the percentage of offensive drives that earn zero or negative yards. Turnover rate (OTO) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a fumble or interception.
View attachment 7229
We increased our touch down rate while lowering our turnover rate. Pretty good key to success there (y) OTO was the offensive stat I asked to improve this week and the offense listened. This was definitely our best offensive performance of the year, and I look forward to more weeks of continued success. Four of our ten drives were still three and outs (or less since one interception on second play of a drive). I don't expect this offense to score points on drives starting inside our 5, but we have to get better at getting a first down or two in those situations.

Defense:
DFEI Defense Ratings (DFEI) represent the per possession scoring advantage a team's defense would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average offense. Unadjusted defensive possession efficiency (DPE) is calculated as a function of defensive game splits. Schedule strength is represented by each team's average per possession defensive opponent adjustment (DOA). Touchdown rate (DTD) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that result in a touchdown. First Down rate (DFD) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that result in a touchdown or at least one first down. Available Yards percentage (DAY) is the total yards surrendered by the defense divided by the total yards available to be earned based on starting field position. Explosive Drive rate (DED) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that average at least ten yards per play. Busted Drive rate (DBD) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that earn zero or negative yards. Turnover rate (DTO) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that result in a fumble or interception.
View attachment 7231
Defense continues to slide. Early games against weak opponents has shown that the defense is still a work in progress. Pretty much every stat here is worse than last week.

Teams are ranked in the table below by net points scored per drive (NPD), the difference between points scored per offensive drive (OPD) and points allowed per opponent offensive drive (DPD). Points per drive from long starting field position for the offense (OLD) and opponent offenses (DLD) are calculated on possessions that begin inside the offense's own 20-yard line. Points per drive from middle starting field position for the offense (OMD) and opponent offenses (DMD) are calculated on possessions that begin from the offense's own 20-yard line to its own 40-yard line. Points per drive from short starting field position for the offense (OSD) and opponent offenses (DSD) are calculated on possessions that begin less than 60 yards from the end zone.
109 Georgia Tech
Net point score per drive: -1.02 (109)

Offense
PPD: 1.40 (122)
PPD (long field position): 0.14 (129)
PPD (medium): 1.64 (94)
PPD (short): 2.73 (104)

Defense
PPD: 2.42 (80)
PPD (long): 1.61 (66)
PPD (medium): 2.02 (66)
PPD (short) 3.87 (89)
Short week so I wanted to make sure I got this out before the game. The data doesn't look good. I wish we could snap our fingers and see results, but it's going to be a process.
The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) is a college football rating system based on opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, representing the per possession scoring advantage a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. Unadjusted possession efficiency (PE) is calculated as a function of offensive, defensive, and special teams game splits. Schedule strength is represented by each team's average per possession opponent adjustment (OA). Opponent-adjusted offense ratings (OFEI), opponent-adjusted defense ratings (DFEI), and opponent-adjusted special teams ratings (SFEI) are calculated in a similar manner as overall FEI ratings.
fei_11_19_2019.png

We fall 13 spots. Hard to find fault there. Defense only falls a few places, but the offense drops substantially.

Offense:
OFEI Offense Ratings (OFEI) represent the per possession scoring advantage a team's offense would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average defense. Unadjusted offensive possession efficiency (OPE) is calculated as a function of offensive game splits. Schedule strength is represented by each team's average per possession offensive opponent adjustment (OOA). Touchdown rate (OTD) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a touchdown. First Down rate (OFD) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a touchdown or at least one first down. Available Yards percentage (OAY) is the total yards earned by the offense divided by the total yards available to be earned based on starting field position. Explosive Drive rate (OED) is the percentage of offensive drives that average at least ten yards per play. Busted Drive rate (OBD) is the percentage of offensive drives that earn zero or negative yards. Turnover rate (OTO) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a fumble or interception.
ofei_11_19_2019.png

e30.jpg


Defense:
DFEI Defense Ratings (DFEI) represent the per possession scoring advantage a team's defense would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average offense. Unadjusted defensive possession efficiency (DPE) is calculated as a function of defensive game splits. Schedule strength is represented by each team's average per possession defensive opponent adjustment (DOA). Touchdown rate (DTD) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that result in a touchdown. First Down rate (DFD) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that result in a touchdown or at least one first down. Available Yards percentage (DAY) is the total yards surrendered by the defense divided by the total yards available to be earned based on starting field position. Explosive Drive rate (DED) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that average at least ten yards per play. Busted Drive rate (DBD) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that earn zero or negative yards. Turnover rate (DTO) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that result in a fumble or interception.
dfei_11_19_2019.png

I expected a bigger fall for the defense on game day, but after cooling off and thinking about it, it wasn't completely terrible. It seems like the main reason we did not fall farther is that our strength of schedule increased despite the drop in overall production. I honestly tried to look into defensive performance to get a silver lining. I am going to provide the spread sheet as is.
gt_vs_vt_defense.png


115 Georgia Tech
Net point score per drive: -1.28(115)

Offense
PPD: 1.26(124)
PPD (long field position): 0.12 (129)
PPD (medium): 1.48 (103)
PPD (short): 2.73 (108)

Defense
PPD: 2.54 (86)
PPD (long): 1.61 (65)
PPD (medium): 2.23 (77)
PPD (short) 3.81 (85)
 
Last edited:

Cam

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,591
Location
Atlanta, Georgia
Thought I'd put down some stats from our friends over at Football Outsiders. They do ratings of offensive and defensive lines over there, but they don't report an overall ranking so I tried to use averages of the 9 individual stats. Using this method, Georgia Tech's offensive line this season is ranked approximately 107th overall, 101st in run blocking stats, and 86th in pass blocking stats. Interestingly, we're one spot ahead of Virginia Tech overall. Also, Miami has the 126th OL out of 130 teams. Overall, the OLs we've played have been pretty poor, as only Clemson (ranked #1), Georgia (13), USF (35), and Duke (55) have a OL in the top half of the NCAA.

For defensive line, we have the 112th ranked DL overall, 99th in rush defense stats, and 109th in pass defense stats. Here's the killer, all of the teams we've played have a top 60 DL and 8 of those are in the top 30: Clemson (2), Miami (5), Pitt (10), Temple (18), Virginia Tech (21), Georgia (26), Duke (29), Virginia (30), UNC (47), USF (56), and NC State (57). Thought this was pretty interesting.
 

ibeattetris

Helluva Engineer
Messages
3,604
Thought I'd put down some stats from our friends over at Football Outsiders. They do ratings of offensive and defensive lines over there, but they don't report an overall ranking so I tried to use averages of the 9 individual stats. Using this method, Georgia Tech's offensive line this season is ranked approximately 107th overall, 101st in run blocking stats, and 86th in pass blocking stats. Interestingly, we're one spot ahead of Virginia Tech overall. Also, Miami has the 126th OL out of 130 teams. Overall, the OLs we've played have been pretty poor, as only Clemson (ranked #1), Georgia (13), USF (35), and Duke (55) have a OL in the top half of the NCAA.

For defensive line, we have the 112th ranked DL overall, 99th in rush defense stats, and 109th in pass defense stats. Here's the killer, all of the teams we've played have a top 60 DL and 8 of those are in the top 30: Clemson (2), Miami (5), Pitt (10), Temple (18), Virginia Tech (21), Georgia (26), Duke (29), Virginia (30), UNC (47), USF (56), and NC State (57). Thought this was pretty interesting.
I knew they did this for the NFL, I didn’t know they had it for NCAA. Thanks for sharing.

Sadly, with how much attrition we’ve had at our lines, none of the averaged stats you provided shock me. The coaches were in an uphill battle to begin with, and injuries didn’t make their lives better.

I’m also not too surprised with the rankings either. We have had a pretty soft schedule for opposing offenses. Our defensive SOS is pretty nuts (at least until NC State).
 

COJacket

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
794
Location
Colorado Springs, CO
I knew they did this for the NFL, I didn’t know they had it for NCAA. Thanks for sharing.

Sadly, with how much attrition we’ve had at our lines, none of the averaged stats you provided shock me. The coaches were in an uphill battle to begin with, and injuries didn’t make their lives better.

I’m also not too surprised with the rankings either. We have had a pretty soft schedule for opposing offenses. Our defensive SOS is pretty nuts (at least until NC State).
This thread is why I love this site. You can’t argue w facts just their interpretation of them. Thanks providing the data! What is our overall SOS going into the uga game?
 

ibeattetris

Helluva Engineer
Messages
3,604
This thread is why I love this site. You can’t argue w facts just their interpretation of them. Thanks providing the data! What is our overall SOS going into the uga game?
It does look like FEI finally updated. I’ll try to do the full summary later.
Total SOS: 38
Opposing Def SOS: 9
Opposing Off SOS: 86

Edit to say. I’m bummed Bill Connely works for espn now. SP was removed from Football outsiders for this year and I don’t know where to get the full data set for it. He only posts the overall off/def/sp teams now on espn article that I can find.
 

ibeattetris

Helluva Engineer
Messages
3,604
Short week so I wanted to make sure I got this out before the game. The data doesn't look good. I wish we could snap our fingers and see results, but it's going to be a process.
The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) is a college football rating system based on opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, representing the per possession scoring advantage a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. Unadjusted possession efficiency (PE) is calculated as a function of offensive, defensive, and special teams game splits. Schedule strength is represented by each team's average per possession opponent adjustment (OA). Opponent-adjusted offense ratings (OFEI), opponent-adjusted defense ratings (DFEI), and opponent-adjusted special teams ratings (SFEI) are calculated in a similar manner as overall FEI ratings.
View attachment 7272
We fall 13 spots. Hard to find fault there. Defense only falls a few places, but the offense drops substantially.

Offense:
OFEI Offense Ratings (OFEI) represent the per possession scoring advantage a team's offense would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average defense. Unadjusted offensive possession efficiency (OPE) is calculated as a function of offensive game splits. Schedule strength is represented by each team's average per possession offensive opponent adjustment (OOA). Touchdown rate (OTD) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a touchdown. First Down rate (OFD) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a touchdown or at least one first down. Available Yards percentage (OAY) is the total yards earned by the offense divided by the total yards available to be earned based on starting field position. Explosive Drive rate (OED) is the percentage of offensive drives that average at least ten yards per play. Busted Drive rate (OBD) is the percentage of offensive drives that earn zero or negative yards. Turnover rate (OTO) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a fumble or interception.
View attachment 7273
e30.jpg


Defense:
DFEI Defense Ratings (DFEI) represent the per possession scoring advantage a team's defense would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average offense. Unadjusted defensive possession efficiency (DPE) is calculated as a function of defensive game splits. Schedule strength is represented by each team's average per possession defensive opponent adjustment (DOA). Touchdown rate (DTD) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that result in a touchdown. First Down rate (DFD) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that result in a touchdown or at least one first down. Available Yards percentage (DAY) is the total yards surrendered by the defense divided by the total yards available to be earned based on starting field position. Explosive Drive rate (DED) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that average at least ten yards per play. Busted Drive rate (DBD) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that earn zero or negative yards. Turnover rate (DTO) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that result in a fumble or interception.
View attachment 7274
I expected a bigger fall for the defense on game day, but after cooling off and thinking about it, it wasn't completely terrible. It seems like the main reason we did not fall farther is that our strength of schedule increased despite the drop in overall production. I honestly tried to look into defensive performance to get a silver lining. I am going to provide the spread sheet as is.
View attachment 7275

115 Georgia Tech
Net point score per drive: -1.28(115)

Offense
PPD: 1.26(124)
PPD (long field position): 0.12 (129)
PPD (medium): 1.48 (103)
PPD (short): 2.73 (108)

Defense
PPD: 2.54 (86)
PPD (long): 1.61 (65)
PPD (medium): 2.23 (77)
PPD (short) 3.81 (85)
Happy hate week. Want to begin this with a good "To Hell With georgia" and a solid "piss on 'em" before I get started.
The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) is a college football rating system based on opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, representing the per possession scoring advantage a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. Unadjusted possession efficiency (PE) is calculated as a function of offensive, defensive, and special teams game splits. Schedule strength is represented by each team's average per possession opponent adjustment (OA). Opponent-adjusted offense ratings (OFEI), opponent-adjusted defense ratings (DFEI), and opponent-adjusted special teams ratings (SFEI) are calculated in a similar manner as overall FEI ratings.
Screen Shot 2019-11-26 at 10.52.01 PM.png


For those keeping track at home, yes we lost a rank despite the win. We got worse in overall SOS adjusted while only marginally improving in non SOS adjusted. Essentially, FEI is not giving us much credit for beating NC State who is rank 110 FEI. OFEI improves (not surprising considering how bad VT affected us), DFEI continues its free fall, and SFEI remains about the same.

OFEI Offense Ratings (OFEI) represent the per possession scoring advantage a team's offense would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average defense. Unadjusted offensive possession efficiency (OPE) is calculated as a function of offensive game splits. Schedule strength is represented by each team's average per possession offensive opponent adjustment (OOA). Touchdown rate (OTD) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a touchdown. First Down rate (OFD) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a touchdown or at least one first down. Available Yards percentage (OAY) is the total yards earned by the offense divided by the total yards available to be earned based on starting field position. Explosive Drive rate (OED) is the percentage of offensive drives that average at least ten yards per play. Busted Drive rate (OBD) is the percentage of offensive drives that earn zero or negative yards. Turnover rate (OTO) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a fumble or interception.
Screen Shot 2019-11-26 at 11.00.12 PM.png


Decent improvement by the O. Even with NC State being a poor opponent we improved our OFEI a decent amount for this time in the season (they took our SOS from 4 to 9!). There is nothing new really to talk about here that I haven't mentioned in previous weeks. Our OTO (turnover rate) continues to be the most disappointing stat for me.

DFEI Defense Ratings (DFEI) represent the per possession scoring advantage a team's defense would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average offense. Unadjusted defensive possession efficiency (DPE) is calculated as a function of defensive game splits. Schedule strength is represented by each team's average per possession defensive opponent adjustment (DOA). Touchdown rate (DTD) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that result in a touchdown. First Down rate (DFD) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that result in a touchdown or at least one first down. Available Yards percentage (DAY) is the total yards surrendered by the defense divided by the total yards available to be earned based on starting field position. Explosive Drive rate (DED) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that average at least ten yards per play. Busted Drive rate (DBD) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that earn zero or negative yards. Turnover rate (DTO) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that result in a fumble or interception.
Screen Shot 2019-11-26 at 11.08.37 PM.png


I'm going to just chalk it up to depth and injuries on the DL at this point. This is definitely what frustrates me most about this team. CGC was a good DC in the past, and I look forward to better defenses for us in the future.

114 Georgia Tech
Net point score per drive: -1.17 (114)

Offense
PPD: 1.40 (119)
PPD (long field position): 0.11 (129)
PPD (medium): 1.56 (102)
PPD (short): 3.38 (74)

Defense
PPD: 2.57 (89)
PPD (long): 1.60 (61)
PPD (medium): 2.36 (83)
PPD (short) 3.81 (85)

Pretty interesting game from a PPD standpoint. We *skyrocket* in the PPD (short) category for offense, while defense faced no short drives. That alone is probably the key factor for the game. Another special teams win in my opinion. Consistently good punts and a muffed punt recovery that led to seven were enough to keep us ahead.
 

slugboy

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
11,491
Not FEI (it’s SP+), but nice visualizations:

@cfbNate: [emoji884]Week 14 SP+ #dataviz thread[emoji884]

Full rankings from @ESPN_BillC: https://www.espn.com/college-footba...+-rankings-week-13-let-get-ready-rivalry-week

Black dot = overall SP+ rating

Green bar = difference between expected pts scored (Off Rating) and expected pts allowed (Def Rating)

Red bar = When you allow more pts than you score
Here’s our side (allowing more points than we score :( )
630a81404cd18590255fbea89bb8c35d.jpg


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 

gtstinger776

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
565
Happy hate week. Want to begin this with a good "To Hell With georgia" and a solid "piss on 'em" before I get started.
The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) is a college football rating system based on opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, representing the per possession scoring advantage a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. Unadjusted possession efficiency (PE) is calculated as a function of offensive, defensive, and special teams game splits. Schedule strength is represented by each team's average per possession opponent adjustment (OA). Opponent-adjusted offense ratings (OFEI), opponent-adjusted defense ratings (DFEI), and opponent-adjusted special teams ratings (SFEI) are calculated in a similar manner as overall FEI ratings.
View attachment 7332

For those keeping track at home, yes we lost a rank despite the win. We got worse in overall SOS adjusted while only marginally improving in non SOS adjusted. Essentially, FEI is not giving us much credit for beating NC State who is rank 110 FEI. OFEI improves (not surprising considering how bad VT affected us), DFEI continues its free fall, and SFEI remains about the same.

OFEI Offense Ratings (OFEI) represent the per possession scoring advantage a team's offense would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average defense. Unadjusted offensive possession efficiency (OPE) is calculated as a function of offensive game splits. Schedule strength is represented by each team's average per possession offensive opponent adjustment (OOA). Touchdown rate (OTD) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a touchdown. First Down rate (OFD) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a touchdown or at least one first down. Available Yards percentage (OAY) is the total yards earned by the offense divided by the total yards available to be earned based on starting field position. Explosive Drive rate (OED) is the percentage of offensive drives that average at least ten yards per play. Busted Drive rate (OBD) is the percentage of offensive drives that earn zero or negative yards. Turnover rate (OTO) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a fumble or interception.
View attachment 7333

Decent improvement by the O. Even with NC State being a poor opponent we improved our OFEI a decent amount for this time in the season (they took our SOS from 4 to 9!). There is nothing new really to talk about here that I haven't mentioned in previous weeks. Our OTO (turnover rate) continues to be the most disappointing stat for me.

DFEI Defense Ratings (DFEI) represent the per possession scoring advantage a team's defense would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average offense. Unadjusted defensive possession efficiency (DPE) is calculated as a function of defensive game splits. Schedule strength is represented by each team's average per possession defensive opponent adjustment (DOA). Touchdown rate (DTD) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that result in a touchdown. First Down rate (DFD) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that result in a touchdown or at least one first down. Available Yards percentage (DAY) is the total yards surrendered by the defense divided by the total yards available to be earned based on starting field position. Explosive Drive rate (DED) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that average at least ten yards per play. Busted Drive rate (DBD) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that earn zero or negative yards. Turnover rate (DTO) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that result in a fumble or interception.
View attachment 7334

I'm going to just chalk it up to depth and injuries on the DL at this point. This is definitely what frustrates me most about this team. CGC was a good DC in the past, and I look forward to better defenses for us in the future.

114 Georgia Tech
Net point score per drive: -1.17 (114)

Offense
PPD: 1.40 (119)
PPD (long field position): 0.11 (129)
PPD (medium): 1.56 (102)
PPD (short): 3.38 (74)

Defense
PPD: 2.57 (89)
PPD (long): 1.60 (61)
PPD (medium): 2.36 (83)
PPD (short) 3.81 (85)

Pretty interesting game from a PPD standpoint. We *skyrocket* in the PPD (short) category for offense, while defense faced no short drives. That alone is probably the key factor for the game. Another special teams win in my opinion. Consistently good punts and a muffed punt recovery that led to seven were enough to keep us ahead.
Are these stats cumulative? I’m surprised we’re ranked so poorly on a “per drive” basis on defense. Eye ball test suggests we’re better on defense than previous years, but the stats don’t. I was assuming it was because our def is on the field way more.
 

ibeattetris

Helluva Engineer
Messages
3,604
Are these stats cumulative? I’m surprised we’re ranked so poorly on a “per drive” basis on defense. Eye ball test suggests we’re better on defense than previous years, but the stats don’t. I was assuming it was because our def is on the field way more.
The data here is for the season.

Defense is giving up 2.57 points per drive which is rank 87.

It would take some time, but if you are really interested I can get the PPD for each game, BCFToys just makes it really easy to get season data.
 

gtstinger776

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
565
The data here is for the season.

Defense is giving up 2.57 points per drive which is rank 87.

It would take some time, but if you are really interested I can get the PPD for each game, BCFToys just makes it really easy to get season data.
No that’s ok. I’m just curious to see the YoY trend (or maybe a 5 year trend). An 87 ranking is not measurably better than what we had under Johnson’s DCs. As I said, the def looks better than it did under roof / woody. Better run fits, better coverage. It definitely wears down as the game progresses, but that’s a symptom of playing 35-40 minutes per game - as was the case in our win against NCSU last week.
 

ibeattetris

Helluva Engineer
Messages
3,604
No that’s ok. I’m just curious to see the YoY trend (or maybe a 5 year trend). An 87 ranking is not measurably better than what we had under Johnson’s DCs. As I said, the def looks better than it did under roof / woody. Better run fits, better coverage. It definitely wears down as the game progresses, but that’s a symptom of playing 35-40 minutes per game - as was the case in our win against NCSU last week.
I've been trying not to directly compare this year from previous years to keep the discussion more on the stats then on the usual coaching discussions that happen in other threads. So far everyone has been on their best behavior :). For defense PPD in the previous five seasons

2014: 2.45 (94)
2015: 2.29 (78)
2016: 2.26 (69)
2017: 2.2 (70)
2018: 2.9 (116)

If we hold on to 2.57 after the uga game, it'll be the third highest since 2007. We might end up worse than 2012, but I think 2018 is untouchable. Last year's defense was truly abysmal.

None of these numbers take SOS into account, so I am not sure how they all compare against each other. Considering our FEI SOS for opposing offenses is rank 86, this year hasn't been a good look.
 

slugboy

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
11,491
No that’s ok. I’m just curious to see the YoY trend (or maybe a 5 year trend). An 87 ranking is not measurably better than what we had under Johnson’s DCs. As I said, the def looks better than it did under roof / woody. Better run fits, better coverage. It definitely wears down as the game progresses, but that’s a symptom of playing 35-40 minutes per game - as was the case in our win against NCSU last week.

I think I did a chart last year of FEI defense. The stats aren’t hard to pull or chart. We were ranked 107 last year. 2017, we were ranked 55 (good year for Roof). Offhand, I’d say 87 is average or maybe above average for the last 5ish years, but nothing to aspire to.


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gtstinger776

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
565
I think I did a chart last year of FEI defense. The stats aren’t hard to pull or chart. We were ranked 107 last year. 2017, we were ranked 55 (good year for Roof). Offhand, I’d say 87 is average or maybe above average for the last 5ish years, but nothing to aspire to.


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Exactly. But we lost a lot of defensive starters from LY’s defense. We had a relatively young defensive unit this year (and entire team for that matter). I would also argue that we were even less prepared to replace BA. The pass rush still sucks, but we’re better at run fits and man coverage.
 

takethepoints

Helluva Engineer
Messages
6,096
I've been trying not to directly compare this year from previous years to keep the discussion more on the stats then on the usual coaching discussions that happen in other threads. So far everyone has been on their best behavior :). For defense PPD in the previous five seasons

2014: 2.45 (94)
2015: 2.29 (78)
2016: 2.26 (69)
2017: 2.2 (70)
2018: 2.9 (116)

If we hold on to 2.57 after the uga game, it'll be the third highest since 2007. We might end up worse than 2012, but I think 2018 is untouchable. Last year's defense was truly abysmal.

None of these numbers take SOS into account, so I am not sure how they all compare against each other. Considering our FEI SOS for opposing offenses is rank 86, this year hasn't been a good look.
I'm betting this is true. Are the rankings adjusted for SoS? The reason I ask is two-fold: a) I'm too lazy to go to the original site and figure it out and b) we played a lot of right decent teams last year. Inquiring minds want to know!

Update: Given that we are in our third straight year with a new D and DC, I'm surprised we're doing as well as we are. The lack of stability on D is crippling.
 

ibeattetris

Helluva Engineer
Messages
3,604
I'm betting this is true. Are the rankings adjusted for SoS? The reason I ask is two-fold: a) I'm too lazy to go to the original site and figure it out and b) we played a lot of right decent teams last year. Inquiring minds want to know!

Update: Given that we are in our third straight year with a new D and DC, I'm surprised we're doing as well as we are. The lack of stability on D is crippling.
The stats listed in the post you responded too are the raw point per drive numbers.

Anything sos adjusted would be in our overall FEI stats (DFEI here). This screen shot shows our DFEI for the previous 5 seasons.
Screen Shot 2019-11-27 at 6.41.47 PM.png

Screen Shot 2019-11-27 at 6.40.26 PM.png


DFEI = SOS adjusted
DPE = non adjusted
DOA = SOS

2018 was just a poor year all around for the defense.
 
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