2018 is the door unlocked?

Longestday

Longestday

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Keys to the season:

#1
Turnover, turnovers, many favorable turnovers! The season will follow as historically shown that a winning season and a great season can be found in turnover margin. My estimate is that Woody>Roof in turnover style of defense....


2017 had a -5 turnover margin and at 101 rank in margin. We had a low to reasonable amount of turnovers given away, but we had very few turnovers gained.

Yes these stats tell you much about the seasons:
Year / Turnover Margin
2017 -5
2016 4
2015 -7
2014 11
2013 -4
2012 4
2011 2
2010 -6
2009 8
2008 2


#2
Completion percent >48 for a good season and =>52% for a great season. Don’t get me wrong. Running is our bread and butter. But we need to connect passes when we do pass at least 50% of the time.... either that or we need a QB that will take back his own turnovers (Nesbitt’s 08 and 09 are outliers). I wonder what the 3rd down conversion rate is when GT misses on a pass?

Year / Turnover Margin
2017 37.1%
2016 53.4%
2015 41.7%
2014 51.3%
2013 45.6%
2012 56.4%
2011 49.3%
2010 37.1% /41.0%
2009 46.3%
2008 43.9%


#3
Rain rain go away... don’t come on Saturday (or one particular Friday or one particular Thursday). I know we won against UNC in the rain in 2013. I was there... I think rain is bad for the angles we take and how much our team slips on the field. I would water the heck and lay new sod right before playing CPJ. Delete this in an hour or Miami may do this...


Things to chew your nails over

Nail biter number 1
Kick off, extra point, and field goals push close losses to close wins. Will we see improvement in this area. Will we have to defend the run back or will we have touch backs.

Nail biter number 2
Thank goodness we have a stable of returning proven DB. Wait, we have a stable of young talented DB wanting to make their mark. At least they had less years to learn back peddling 10 yards before the snap.

Nail biter number 3
Can we get pressure on the QB or will we go from bend but don't break to broke off. Sack the city, pillage their belongings, and take home all their booty.
 
GT_05

GT_05

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Longestday said:
Keys to the season:

#1
Turnover, turnovers, many favorable turnovers! The season will follow as historically shown that a winning season and a great season can be found in turnover margin. My estimate is that Woody>Roof in turnover style of defense....


2017 had a -5 turnover margin and at 101 rank in margin. We had a low to reasonable amount of turnovers given away, but we had very few turnovers gained.

Yes these stats tell you much about the seasons:
Year / Turnover Margin
2017 -5
2016 4
2015 -7
2014 11
2013 -4
2012 4
2011 2
2010 -6
2009 8
2008 2


#2
Completion percent >48 for a good season and =>52% for a great season. Don’t get me wrong. Running is our bread and butter. But we need to connect passes when we do pass at least 50% of the time.... either that or we need a QB that will take back his own turnovers (Nesbitt’s 08 and 09 are outliers). I wonder what the 3rd down conversion rate is when GT misses on a pass?

Year / Turnover Margin
2017 37.1%
2016 53.4%
2015 41.7%
2014 51.3%
2013 45.6%
2012 56.4%
2011 49.3%
2010 37.1% /41.0%
2009 46.3%
2008 43.9%


#3
Rain rain go away... don’t come on Saturday (or one particular Friday or one particular Thursday). I know we won against UNC in the rain in 2013. I was there... I think rain is bad for the angles we take and how much our team slips on the field. I would water the heck and lay new sod right before playing CPJ. Delete this in an hour or Miami may do this...


Things to chew your nails over

Nail biter number 1
Kick off, extra point, and field goals push close losses to close wins. Will we see improvement in this area. Will we have to defend the run back or will we have touch backs.

Nail biter number 2
Thank goodness we have a stable of returning proven DB. Wait, we have a stable of young talented DB wanting to make their mark. At least they had less years to learn back peddling 10 yards before the snap.

Nail biter number 3
Can we get pressure on the QB or will we go from bend but don't break to broke off. Sack the city, pillage their belongings, and take home all their booty.
Click to expand...

Brilliant post. [emoji106]. Under #2, is that data for the 3rd down conversion rate instead of turnover margin? To your point about passing, having the ability to pass makes the runs easier. The Ds last year didn’t respect the pass and focused on taking away the run and were largely successful. I think this was CPJ’s third lowest rushing totals at GT and the lowest passing yards while at GT.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cf...2017&school_id=georgia-tech&order_by=rush_yds

https://www.sports-reference.com/cf...2017&school_id=georgia-tech&order_by=pass_yds





Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
AE 87

AE 87

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Longestday said:
Keys to the season:

#1
Turnover, turnovers, many favorable turnovers! The season will follow as historically shown that a winning season and a great season can be found in turnover margin. My estimate is that Woody>Roof in turnover style of defense....


2017 had a -5 turnover margin and at 101 rank in margin. We had a low to reasonable amount of turnovers given away, but we had very few turnovers gained.

Yes these stats tell you much about the seasons:
Year / Turnover Margin
2017 -5
2016 4
2015 -7
2014 11
2013 -4
2012 4
2011 2
2010 -6
2009 8
2008 2


#2
Completion percent >48 for a good season and =>52% for a great season. Don’t get me wrong. Running is our bread and butter. But we need to connect passes when we do pass at least 50% of the time.... either that or we need a QB that will take back his own turnovers (Nesbitt’s 08 and 09 are outliers). I wonder what the 3rd down conversion rate is when GT misses on a pass?

Year / Turnover Margin
2017 37.1%
2016 53.4%
2015 41.7%
2014 51.3%
2013 45.6%
2012 56.4%
2011 49.3%
2010 37.1% /41.0%
2009 46.3%
2008 43.9%


#3
Rain rain go away... don’t come on Saturday (or one particular Friday or one particular Thursday). I know we won against UNC in the rain in 2013. I was there... I think rain is bad for the angles we take and how much our team slips on the field. I would water the heck and lay new sod right before playing CPJ. Delete this in an hour or Miami may do this...


Things to chew your nails over

Nail biter number 1
Kick off, extra point, and field goals push close losses to close wins. Will we see improvement in this area. Will we have to defend the run back or will we have touch backs.

Nail biter number 2
Thank goodness we have a stable of returning proven DB. Wait, we have a stable of young talented DB wanting to make their mark. At least they had less years to learn back peddling 10 yards before the snap.

Nail biter number 3
Can we get pressure on the QB or will we go from bend but don't break to broke off. Sack the city, pillage their belongings, and take home all their booty.
Click to expand...

App State was #16 in turnover gained in 2017 but not as high in years previous.
 
nod

nod

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Messages
711
#3 agree the rain killed Tech last year, in addition to slipping messing up timing on offense, I think Coach Johnson knows this and the play calls are very limited. I forget the game, but one game last year Tech was running good outside / inside, rain came and the offense stopped running outside.
 
stech81

stech81

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Location
Woodstock Georgia
Nice work Thanks .

I also went back and looked and a few thing stood out to me. Every time we have scored my points then our opponents we have won. Also if you look close any time we have held our opponent to less points then we have scored we also won. So after drinking a few beers it looks like we can win if our offense and defense are good.
 
tech_wreck47

tech_wreck47

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Messages
8,670
Longestday said:
Keys to the season:

#1
Turnover, turnovers, many favorable turnovers! The season will follow as historically shown that a winning season and a great season can be found in turnover margin. My estimate is that Woody>Roof in turnover style of defense....


2017 had a -5 turnover margin and at 101 rank in margin. We had a low to reasonable amount of turnovers given away, but we had very few turnovers gained.

Yes these stats tell you much about the seasons:
Year / Turnover Margin
2017 -5
2016 4
2015 -7
2014 11
2013 -4
2012 4
2011 2
2010 -6
2009 8
2008 2


#2
Completion percent >48 for a good season and =>52% for a great season. Don’t get me wrong. Running is our bread and butter. But we need to connect passes when we do pass at least 50% of the time.... either that or we need a QB that will take back his own turnovers (Nesbitt’s 08 and 09 are outliers). I wonder what the 3rd down conversion rate is when GT misses on a pass?

Year / Turnover Margin
2017 37.1%
2016 53.4%
2015 41.7%
2014 51.3%
2013 45.6%
2012 56.4%
2011 49.3%
2010 37.1% /41.0%
2009 46.3%
2008 43.9%


#3
Rain rain go away... don’t come on Saturday (or one particular Friday or one particular Thursday). I know we won against UNC in the rain in 2013. I was there... I think rain is bad for the angles we take and how much our team slips on the field. I would water the heck and lay new sod right before playing CPJ. Delete this in an hour or Miami may do this...


Things to chew your nails over

Nail biter number 1
Kick off, extra point, and field goals push close losses to close wins. Will we see improvement in this area. Will we have to defend the run back or will we have touch backs.

Nail biter number 2
Thank goodness we have a stable of returning proven DB. Wait, we have a stable of young talented DB wanting to make their mark. At least they had less years to learn back peddling 10 yards before the snap.

Nail biter number 3
Can we get pressure on the QB or will we go from bend but don't break to broke off. Sack the city, pillage their belongings, and take home all their booty.
Click to expand...
I agree with most of this. The only issue I have is on #2, TM was at 37.1 percent last year and even then we could have easily won 8 games. If he can get to 45 percent or better we can have a great year imo, 10 wins or more. The big thing will be the defense, if they can finish top 40 in efficiency then we will be fine with just a little uptick in offense this year compared to last. For the record I think he can get that completion to around 48-50 percent this year.
 
Whiskey_Clear

Whiskey_Clear

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nod said:
#3 agree the rain killed Tech last year, in addition to slipping messing up timing on offense, I think Coach Johnson knows this and the play calls are very limited. I forget the game, but one game last year Tech was running good outside / inside, rain came and the offense stopped running outside.
Click to expand...

Seems like our O runs a lot better in the rain when we can run midline efficiently.
 
Longestday

Longestday

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2,856
Yes, key number two is percent completion by the main QB for each year.... except 2010 when you had 2 main QBs.

Also, it is game of inches right. I feel the data indicates that 2017 would be a winning season with a bowl with a 45% to 50% completion rate. 1 or 2 extra reception a game is a game changer for GT, especially when they are TD passes, red zone passes, or 1st downs...

Yes, score more and make them score less.... improve where we are not strong and that will happen.


The Miami game started slick and Miami covering the middle. GT started going outside and was scoring. Then the rain came and Benson went out and the scoring dried. Rain bad!

Forced turnovers is Key #1. 2017 had low or normal turnovers... just few take away.
 
iceeater1969

iceeater1969

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tech_wreck47 said:
I agree with most of this. The only issue I have is on #2, TM was at 37.1 percent last year and even then we could have easily won 8 games. If he can get to 45 percent or better we can have a great year imo, 10 wins or more. The big thing will be the defense, if they can finish top 40 in efficiency then we will be fine with just a little uptick in offense this year compared to last. For the record I think he can get that completion to around 48-50 percent this year.
Click to expand...

i think he is thinking we will be at about the average. Basically tm started above 50 % and gradually went down to above 25%. for a season avg of 37% .

But even a very low percentage can be ok in right circumstances.

Looking at last 4 games Virginia 6 for 22 w int, vt 2 for 8, Duke 3 for 14, uga 2 for 9.
That's 13 for 56 = less than 25%.
Now look at what yards we got w each reception.
V 6 catches @ 30 yds per catch,
vt 2 catches @ 70 yds per catch,
duke at 3 catches @ 29 yds per catch
and uga 2 catches at 15 yds per catch.

Doubling the completions (×5% to 50%) in 4 games from 13 to 26 would add 440 ydz of passing or 110 yds per game AND 3 FIRST DOWNS!!!

Adding 110 to total offense for last 4 games
v 220 rush 179 pass = 399 + 110 = 509yds
vt 261 rush 140 pass = 401 + 110 = 511yds
d 277 rush 82 pass = 359 + 110 = 469 yds
uga 188 rush 38 pass = 240 +110 = 350yds.

imo with q3 more completions spread overx4 games
we easily win virginia,
win winn big against vt
we play duke close despite a defensive collapse in second half.
we are not embarrassed by by uga.
the virginia game.

In my wishful thinking for 18 we will have a couple of 70 % completion games that we win by 20 plus .

At that percentage u will hear -" they can't stop these yellow jackets".
 
Eastman

Eastman

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Columbia, SC
Injuries are typically the unknown that most concerns me with turnovers second. If we have lower than the normal level of significant injuries and are solidly on the plus side regarding turnovers, it almost guarantees a good season.
 
Eastman

Eastman

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Columbia, SC
In my opinion Turnovers are based on more than luck although the way the “ball bounces” certainly is a randomness factor. It would be nice to force more turnovers and have the ball bounce our way more often than not.
 
iceeater1969

iceeater1969

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Longestday said:
Wow, I did not know or realize GT was as low as 25% in the last 4 games.
Click to expand...

Get this - The last 9 completions = 4 to them and. 5 to us.

Coach must have a stomach of iron.

IMO
TQ can't be depended upon to improve w passing frequency.. I believe he will be much better but his height 5 9/10 is very limiting when they know we need to pass. i love this kids warrior mentality. I think the team does as well.
 
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