2016 MLB Draft

[SwarmArmy]

So we have 3B and SS open next year. I know Carter Hall will probably be the starting SS, but do we have any good 3B who can hit like Gonzo can?

 

[65Jacket]

So we have 3B and SS open next year. I know Carter Hall will probably be the starting SS, but do we have any good 3B who can hit like Gonzo can?

Our 3rd baseman is back. His name is Trevor Craport. Gonzo primarily played left field this year.

 

[RoosterJacket]

Yes, Gold and Gorst can get more than the slot value.

I looked at the players drafted in the next 100 (picks 316 to 415) in the 2005 draft. ( http://www.thebaseballcube.com/draft/research.asp?Y1=2015&Y2=2015&R=11&RS=>=&Ov=&Ovs==&T=&Player=&School=&Pos=&HL=&Region=&P=June-Reg&CT=&Bonus=0&Signed=&Active=&Source=&Bats=&Throws=&Sort= ) While the slot is $100K, the average for these 100 was $170K. But most of the increase over the slot was for HS picks who averaged $260K. The college players who don't appear to be SRs averaged $130K. And those who appeared to be SRs averaged $160K (but that was due to one person who got $400K, Brantley Bell, who may have had a year of eligibility left http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=brantley-bell )

Also on the 100 players with the average bonus of $170K, there was a large std dev of $140K.

The highest bonus went to HS picks. But there were two college Jrs, Josh Rogers of L'ville and Max Schrock of USCe, who got $500K. There is a penalty for paying over the slot amount ( http://m.mlb.com/news/article/170470526/2016-draft-bonus-pools-pick-values ).

So you have effectively rained on my enthusiasm, so I'll go cut the grass in misery. (kidding)

One question - what was Gooden's recorded velocity before?

Great research!!! Here's to hoping Gold AND Gorst stick around or at least one of them.

Perfect Game shows Gooden's highest velo at 91 two summers ago. That's interesting---I don't know what he was around this HS season, but if it was mid to high 80's that could also be a factor as to why he had fallen in pre draft rankings from last summer/fall. I'm not too worried about it, velo is nice, but you still have to know how to pitch.

Wonder how many scholarship spots we have available if we only lose Justus and the seniors (Gonzo, Pitts, Wruble, and Wiseman---that's assuming all 4 had an athletic scholarship). I was thinking you could only use the 11.5 scholarships towards 27 players or something like that.

 

[Squints]

@GTNavyNuke and @RoosterJacket ... I will admit gentlemen I am not much into MLB draft to the extent you guys appear to be. Is there any indication on these Tech Juniors' affinity to playing college baseball? Are your predictions based solely on what you see as their "stock"... and the higher picks are gone? ...or are you factoring in 'feelings' or real knowledge regarding each guy's decision matrix.

At the risk of beating my chest too much I'm gonna say I have a hard time believing they follow the MLB draft more than I do. I'm a massive nerd for it and it's one of my favorite sports events of the year. I'm weird. That being said there is so much back-room negotiation that goes on in the draft that can drastically affect the picks that any predictions any of us can offer here are pure speculation without actually knowing the players or their family. I think now that we're looking pretty good now that we're past round 10 though. We'll see.

 

[FredJacket]

At the risk of beating my chest too much I'm gonna say I have a hard time believing they follow the MLB draft more than I do. I'm a massive nerd for it and it's one of my favorite sports events of the year. I'm weird. That being said there is so much back-room negotiation that goes on in the draft that can drastically affect the picks that any predictions any of us can offer here are pure speculation without actually knowing the players or their family. I think now that we're looking pretty good now that we're past round 10 though. We'll see.

By all means @Squints... beat your chest. Understand the speculation. It's interesting to see what everyone is thinking.

 

[RoosterJacket]

Gorst, Gold, and Pabst all drafted in 12th round.

 

[Squints]

By all means @Squints... beat your chest. Understand the speculation. It's interesting to see what everyone is thinking.

Gotta beat my chest about something because after reading that last sentence it definitely can't be the English language.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Gorst, Gold, and Pabst all drafted in 12th round.

Balls. Oh well, glad that they have a choice to make which will depend on the offer. If they were my kids and the offer was >=$200K, I'd recommend going to MLB. Especially for pitchers. They have more leverage now than they ever will again. Gonna have some drama over the next month, but I now think they are more than likely gone, especially Pabst.

Gold #350 Colorado
Gorst #358 Boston
Pabst #375 Pittsburgh

 

[RoosterJacket]

That's it! The draft is complete. Now we wait and see on Gold, Gorst, and Pabst. And I guess to an extent, Trammell. Justus already tweeted something that made it sound like he may have already agreed to a "deal" with the Angels. I imagine all 5 will sign and begin their pro careers. Best of luck to them all and Gonzo!

 

[Ramblinwreck07]

Yea being taken in round 12, I expect all 3 to sign. Would love to have them back, but congrats to them

 

[65Jacket]

Other than Trammell, were none of our incoming freshmen drafted?

 

[RoosterJacket]

Other than Trammell, were none of our incoming freshmen drafted?

Nope, no other incoming freshmen were drafted.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

So my final guess on which guys will be drafted and which will not be at GT in the fall:
Drafted and gone or see ya in the fall
Trammell - gone
Justus - gone
Gorst - gone
Gold - gone
Gonzalez - obviously gone...
Pabst - gone
Kel - see ya in the fall
Parr - see ya in the fall
X Curry - see ya in the fall
McCann* - see ya in the fall

First round starts tomorrow. Trammell likely gets drafted tomorrow. Justus likely top 5 rounds. Beyond that is anybody's guess.

*felt like I needed to throw in a random incoming freshman getting drafted kind of like Jackson Webb last year. Catchers seem to get drafted a lot.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

So my final guess on which guys will be drafted and which will not be at GT in the fall:
Drafted and gone or see ya in the fall
Trammell - gone
Justus - gone
Gorst - gone
Gold - gone
Gonzalez - obviously gone...
Pabst - gone
Kel - see ya in the fall
Parr - see ya in the fall
X Curry - see ya in the fall
McCann* - see ya in the fall

First round starts tomorrow. Trammell likely gets drafted tomorrow. Justus likely top 5 rounds. Beyond that is anybody's guess.

*felt like I needed to throw in a random incoming freshman getting drafted kind of like Jackson Webb last year. Catchers seem to get drafted a lot.

100%. Congratulations!

Now what is our starting pitching rotation next year? (you have 8 months to answer)

For everyone to follow, here is the listing of draft people and whether they sign or not for this year. Also I included the link for last year:
http://beesball.com/draft2016.html
http://www.beesball.com/draft2015.html

Looking at the 2015 draft, Spignola is listed as not getting a signing bonus last year (31st round). That's probably because it was <$50K and didn't round up to $.1M. http://www.thebaseballcube.com/draft/research.asp?Y=2015&P=June-Reg&R=31&PID=168295

Same thing for Murray. But he was 14th round and bonus <$50K. That's the result of the MLB teams having the rights to the draftee for a year regardless of how much they offer.

The MLB sucks the best out of college baseball; just the way it is. The good part of the system is that it should lead to more parity and competitive games. Again, I really think if the drafting team doesn't pay the slot amount, the draftee should be able to become a free agent and see what other teams will pay him. Otherwise the draftee's choice is to not play for a year.

Anyway @RoosterJacket , congratulations. I do expect them all to sign too.

 

[FredJacket]

I'm trying to reconcile something with Gorst. Maybe applies to Gold too. Didn't their performances this season warrant being drafted much earlier than Round 12? If so... would that not be an indication they signaled they were at least considering staying in school?

Most (maybe all) that speculated after they were undrafted through 10 rounds said they were probably staying. Seemed to (suddenly?) change your minds after actually seeing them drafted in 12th round.

I'm only still hoping one or both of them are back next year.

 

[FredJacket]

I'm trying to reconcile something with Gorst. Maybe applies to Gold too. Didn't their performances this season warrant being drafted much earlier than Round 12? If so... would that not be an indication they signaled they were at least considering staying in school?

Most (maybe all) that speculated after they were undrafted through 10 rounds said they were probably staying. Seemed to (suddenly?) change your minds after actually seeing them drafted in 12th round.

I'm only still hoping one or both of them are back next year.

Ok. I actually went back and re-read this thread ....AND I take back my implication that you guys changed positions inexplicably on Gold & Gorst. There was acknowledgment they may still go if drafted after Rd10.

I'm still interested in thoughts on why they were drafted that late with such great numbers this season if not because they showed some interest in staying in college.

 

[awbuzz]

I'm trying to reconcile something with Gorst. Maybe applies to Gold too. Didn't their performances this season warrant being drafted much earlier than Round 12? If so... would that not be an indication they signaled they were at least considering staying in school?

Most (maybe all) that speculated after they were undrafted through 10 rounds said they were probably staying. Seemed to (suddenly?) change your minds after actually seeing them drafted in 12th round.

I'm only still hoping one or both of them are back next year.

Often teams reach ouch to a player/contact to test and see if the player would sign for X in a given round. If not, they will not draft them because they would rather get a body in the system instead of ending up with nothing for that pick.

 

[RoosterJacket]

Gonzo signed for 25K. Trammell signed for 3.2 million (slot was 1.8).

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Gonzo signed for 25K. Trammell signed for 3.2 million (slot was 1.8).

Thanks. Disappointed for Gonzo for sure, but that is the established business model. It will be fun to follow him, I think he is going to surprise people with his bat and speed.

Where was the Gonzo signing posted? I don't see it at http://beesball.com/draft2016.html

Any predictions on amount for Gold and Gorst @NostraRooster?

 

[GTNavyNuke]

......
Where was the Gonzo signing posted? I don't see it at http://beesball.com/draft2016.html .......

Link updated today. Also note that Pabst has reached agreement. But Gold and Gorst haven't .... they are the only "unsigned" ....... worth following since there is little else to follow right now and both would be likely to start or close next year. May just be negotiation takes time to get the best deal or something better for the team. After how Gonzo got 1/10th of the slot value, it's a tough choice for them to wait till they are seniors.