2016 MLB Draft

[RoosterJacket]

I think right now, there are only 2 guys who are 100% going to sign once drafted and that is Trammell and Justus. The next two most likely to sign in my opinion are Curry and Gold. Beyond that, it's pretty wide open.

I'd be interested to see how many of our HS signees that have been drafted after the 5th round don't end up at GT. I bet that number is very low. I am guessing the reason kids like Kel, English, Stallings, Bart, etc. didn't get drafted until late (or even drafted at all) is because they had informed MLB teams it would take a huge $ amount (1st round type $) for them to not go to GT.

 

[65Jacket]

I heard an interview with Nickeus about a week ago. He was talking about how awful life is in the lower minors and how much better it is to go to college to play. One of the big points was that in college, your teammates are you friends, and in the minors, your teammates are your competition.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Weren't guys like Bart, Johnson, Stallings, Hughes all ranked about the same as Curry and Gooden? I don't if I'd go that high on all those %'s. I would say good chance Trammell doesn't make it on campus but good shot with the others.

Wow, you're right. Those afflicted with coming to GT (value education, masochists, engineer wanna be, whatever) are more likely to show up than the average commit to the average college. I went back to my 2014 thread on MLB draft and I used to "know" this........

Anyway here are the stats from 2008-15. The green are those PG < 300 and > 100. Of the 26 greenies (like Curry 140 and Gooden 206), only 3 went to MLB from HS. So from that sort, Curry and Gooden would be only ~10-15% likely to go to MLB.

Also of the reds (PG<=100), only 6 of 14 went to MLB. They were all drafted except Kel and Stallings. Of those drafted above 315 (or about 10 rounds), 9 out of 11 went to the MLB (Hughes and Grimes). So I stand by my original thought that if our commits are drafted in the top 10 rounds, they are not going to come to GT. But the big unknown is what they are telling the scouts. We won't find that out till the draft happens.

But you making me look at it this way makes me a lot more optimistic, and yes lower my WAGs that they will go to the MLB:
Xzavion Curry SS - 99% to 30%.
Garrett GoodenRHP - 80% to 20%.
Nick Wilhite OF -65% to 10%
Austin Wilhite IF - 65% to 10%.
rest <10%

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I heard an interview with Nickeus about a week ago. He was talking about how awful life is in the lower minors and how much better it is to go to college to play. One of the big points was that in college, your teammates are you friends, and in the minors, your teammates are your competition.

My friend at work has his son in the second year of the minors. Other than no pay to speak of, there is little care for the average player (>10th round drafted). Nothing more than a "puppy mill". But all the kids know they are different. They have to be to have made it that far ....... {sort of TIC and sarcasm }

 

[GTNavyNuke]

"Good" news is that D1 Baseball has their top 150 (4-5 rounds) draft picks out today and #47 Trammell is the only GT commit or player on it.

A university like UVa has more in the top 150 - #15 commit Wentz; #19 commit Jones; #21 pitcher Connor Jones; #39 catcher Thaiss; #101 commit Kranik. Hope they lose them all (for us) for next year!

The draft is the great leveler. Too bad CFB doesn't do it the same way.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Bad news from the UVa win by Gorst. (tic) He'll get more scout's attention after that 6.1 innings of shutout ball. 0.55 ERA in 33.0 innings with a WHIP of .94. http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=matthew-gorst

I had guessed 30% likely to leave. Make that 50%. He probably will get a later draft pick worth $100-200K.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Good news is PerfectGame 100-200 has no one from GT. Here are the current rankings (Trammel is gone, gone, gone ......) and beginning of the year rankings ...... news flash, most of our players have dropped recently:

Trammel 19th (was 219 beginning of season)
Curry 140th (was 27)
Gooden 206th (was 39)
Nick Wilhite 225 (was 227)
Austin Wilhite (was 226)
Wilson 311 (was 230)
McCann 381 (was 185)
Murray 439 (was 301)
rest 500 or >

But I'm fine with this. I think that Perfect Game may be influenced by subscriber base and also lower players who are less likely to go to the minors from HS. But that is only because of watching football rankings.

Getting all six of our committed pitchers is important. Based on what another player's parent told me, I'm feeling better about Gooden coming to GT.

Did anyone else think about Kel's draft spot last night? I don't know how far his HR was, but not many HRs have been hit in Turner Field by college players.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Perfect Game released their 200-300 draft picks today.

Justus @#206 and Kel @ #232. So other than Trammel @#27, that's it so far.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Perfect Game released their 200-300 draft picks today.

Justus @#206 and Kel @ #232. So other than Trammel @#27, that's it so far.

Top 500 now out and 344 Gorst, 418 Curry and 462 Gonzo.

The only "sure" losses look like Trammel and Justus. Gonzo is a SR so he is gone.

Kel and Gorst and Curry maybe. If they were my kids, I'd tell Trammel, Justus and Gorst to take the money if drafted where shown. Kel wait till he's a Jr unless >$1M / ATL and Curry wait unless >$1M.

 

[RoosterJacket]

I think we only lose:
Trammell
Gold
Gorst
Justus
Ryan
Gonzo (duh)

That means we would keep all other incoming freshmen along with Kel, Parr, and Pabst. I'd take that!!

 

[CuseJacket]

In Their Own Words: A Conversation with Georgia Tech Commit Taylor Trammell

BF: What are your plans at Georgia Tech – are you going to stick to baseball?

TT: The coaches wanted me to play, but with everything going on in baseball, I wanted to focus on just baseball. I love football; it will always be part of me, played since the age of five. But there’s just something more special when you play a game of pick-up baseball. There’s nothing like it.

BF: What are your plans between now and the draft?

TT: Working on my arm and getting stronger every day with my trainer Mike Butler at Champs Fit Performance in Powder Springs, GA. He’s definitely one of my mentors. I am also hitting and running every day. God willing, if I end up being a draft pick and things fall into place, I’m gonna hit the ground running… I’m going to go out and compete every day.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

...... God willing, if I end up being a draft pick and things fall into place, I’m gonna hit the ground running… I’m going to go out and compete every day.........

Gone to the MLB.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Baseball America has http://beesball.com/wordpress/?p=15412&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
"13. Taylor Trammell
Fastest riser among toolsy Georgia prep outfield class, thanks to strides with bat.

110. Kel Johnson
Eligible sophomore has strength and power, lacks plate discipline.

127. Connor Justus
Combines smooth, steady shortstop defense with performance in Atlantic Coast Conference, bat likely light as pro."

I agree on Kel about plate discipline, but it is much better than last year. Whether he turns pro this year or not, I expect he'll get much better and will make the MLB and not just be drafted high. Kid seems very smart and hard working.

Justus having a light bat? OK, given he has put up his numbers in the best conference in college baseball, I think that is full of ****.

Edit: I checked the top 300 from Baseball America and didn't see any other players / recruits. Expect a few more in the top 500 when they come out. http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft-preview/ I'm learning a new program (JMP) and may correlate the different services (PG, D1, Baseball America) to the actual results in the draft. I have to think that these services must also take into account what they hear from the players or scouts about a players interest in being drafted. So I'm still of the opinion that Kel is likely leaving, especially if the Braves make the pick.

 

[RoosterJacket]

Baseball America has http://beesball.com/wordpress/?p=15412&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
"13. Taylor Trammell
Fastest riser among toolsy Georgia prep outfield class, thanks to strides with bat.

110. Kel Johnson
Eligible sophomore has strength and power, lacks plate discipline.

127. Connor Justus
Combines smooth, steady shortstop defense with performance in Atlantic Coast Conference, bat likely light as pro."

I agree on Kel about plate discipline, but it is much better than last year. Whether he turns pro this year or not, I expect he'll get much better and will make the MLB and not just be drafted high. Kid seems very smart and hard working.

Justus having a light bat? OK, given he has put up his numbers in the best conference in college baseball, I think that is full of ****.

Edit: I checked the top 300 from Baseball America and didn't see any other players / recruits. Expect a few more in the top 500 when they come out. http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft-preview/ I'm learning a new program (JMP) and may correlate the different services (PG, D1, Baseball America) to the actual results in the draft. I have to think that these services must also take into account what they hear from the players or scouts about a players interest in being drafted. So I'm still of the opinion that Kel is likely leaving, especially if the Braves make the pick.

For some reason, I just feel like Kel is a kid that will come back for one more year.

Justus has had an amazing year this season, but his last two years offensively were not very good so I'm guessing they are factoring that in. I think he's gone for sure.

I think the biggest question marks are Gold and Gorst. It's just hard for me to envision either of them staying for their senior year, but we've seen stranger things happen.

The wild cards are Pabst, Parr, and Peurifoy. Good defensive catchers are always in demand, so I could see Pabst getting drafted and leaving. There were a lot of scouts at the Miami game on Wednesday and saw Parr shut down a very good team--that may be enough for a team to draft him. I don't think Peurifoy will get drafted, but he hit very well last year and is outstanding in the OF.

Assuming the worst and all the above leave, we will be looking for a new LF, CF, SS, DH, Friday SP, and Closer next season.

 

[OldJacketFan]

Assuming the worst and all the above leave, we will be looking for a new LF, CF, SS, DH, Friday SP, and Closer next season.[/QUOTE]


Is that all???????

 

[FredJacket]

Kel was hurt most of last season...spent middle part of year out of lineup & last part less than 100%. Frankly, he seems to be in same situation now (nowhere near 100%). He can certainly hit;but is lack of speed, below avg defense, & shaky health going create problems draft-wise?

 

[FredJacket]

Kel was hurt most of last season...spent middle part of year out of lineup & last part less than 100%. Frankly, he seems to be in same situation now (nowhere near 100%). He can certainly hit;but is lack of speed, below avg defense, & shaky health going create problems draft-wise?

Flip side of question...does it make sense for Kel to return for Jr season in hopes of a healthy more productive one. Probably a risk, huh?

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Kel was hurt most of last season...spent middle part of year out of lineup & last part less than 100%. Frankly, he seems to be in same situation now (nowhere near 100%). He can certainly hit;but is lack of speed, below avg defense, & shaky health going create problems draft-wise?

When I saw Kel warming up and playing in person at UVa, he didn't have good arm strength (or wasn't using it) and jogged with a limp. I agree he is hurting. But for him to be ranked 110th by Baseball America and 232nd by Perfect Game means he has a lot of talent and potential when healthy. And what I saw doesn't matter much since are lots of scouts who see a lot more than I do. I think it'll come down to the draft position and how much he is offered. Good problem for Kel to have.

Only 14 days to the draft.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

7 days to the draft.

One non-draft but related item. I sent a question into WREK the game King was the back up announcer asking if King would be back. Wiley Ballard said during the broadcast that King may continue to post numbers next year for GT. A tease?

If King wants to come back and try a third time, great by me. I don't know the details of his injury but hope he can come back. King was very impressive as an announcer and seems to have his head on straight. (One of the things I like best about WREK is listening to the students, including Wiley. College sports is a bridge back to college and they make it even more real.)

Anyway if King comes back, he would be the oldest player by far on the team at 24. So I think it was only a tease. Does anyone have any real insight? http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=jonathan-king-2

 

[RoosterJacket]

7 days to the draft.

One non-draft but related item. I sent a question into WREK the game King was the back up announcer asking if King would be back. Wiley Ballard said during the broadcast that King may continue to post numbers next year for GT. A tease?

If King wants to come back and try a third time, great by me. I don't know the details of his injury but hope he can come back. King was very impressive as an announcer and seems to have his head on straight. (One of the things I like best about WREK is listening to the students, including Wiley. College sports is a bridge back to college and they make it even more real.)

Anyway if King comes back, he would be the oldest player by far on the team at 24. So I think it was only a tease. Does anyone have any real insight? http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=jonathan-king-2

No real insight, but I'm sure he will be back next year to give it a try. It's weird how quiet it has been about his shoulder. Pretty sure there was no surgery or anything though.