2016 MLB Draft

[Squints]

I'm not as convinced you guys are that Gold is gone. He's a right handed version of King. Which isn't a bad thing for a college team. But his numbers don't wow you, he doesn't have big stuff, and he has no projection left. That's not exactly the kind of pedigree MLB scouting directors are looking for. There's a reason he's not on any of the best player available lists. He's not a guy you can take in the top 10 rounds and save pool money on because he's a junior so have a hard time seeing him go in the top 10 rounds. And once you're past round 10 I don't think he's a guy teams will go over slot to sign.

We'll see though. I thought Buck Farmer was gone for sure and Heddinger was coming back after their respective junior years so what do I know?

 

[RoosterJacket]

I'm not as convinced you guys are that Gold is gone. He's a right handed version of King. Which isn't a bad thing for a college team. But his numbers don't wow you, he doesn't have big stuff, and he has no projection left. That's not exactly the kind of pedigree MLB scouting directors are looking for. There's a reason he's not on any of the best player available lists. He's not a guy you can take in the top 10 rounds and save pool money on because he's a junior so have a hard time seeing him go in the top 10 rounds. And once you're past round 10 I don't think he's a guy teams will go over slot to sign.

We'll see though. I thought Buck Farmer was gone for sure and Heddinger was coming back after their respective junior years so what do I know?

Could be the difference in signing for 50k-100k this year or 5K next year. Other factors are how close he is to graduating, how "well off" his family is, how much he enjoys college life/baseball, and if he thinks he can do something next year that would skyrocket his draft stock to be a top 5 round pick next year.

I would be a little more surprised if he stayed instead of left, but I would not be completely shocked if he did decide to come back.

 

[ball4life66]

MLB TOP 200 prospect list for the 2016 draft:

#32 Taylor Trammell
Scouting grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 50 | Run: 70 | Arm: 45 | Field: 60 | Overall: 50

Trammell was the Georgia Class A football offensive player of the year after rushing for 2,479 yards and 36 touchdowns last fall and could have played football in college. Instead, he has decided to focus on the diamond going forward. He has committed to Georgia Tech for baseball only and is unlikely to join the Yellow Jackets because he figures to go in the first round of the Draft.

Because he has divided his time between two sports, Trammell still is learning how to recognize pitches, handle offspeed offerings and tap into his raw power. He does show some feel for hitting and his well above-average speed will help him reach base. With his bat speed and strength, he could develop average or better pop.

Trammell also is figuring things out defensively, but he has the tools to be an asset in center field. He's working on improving the strength of his arm, which should be fine for center.

#131 Connor Justus

Scouting grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 35 | Run: 50 | Arm: 55 | Field: 55 | Overall: 45

A three-year starter at shortstop for Georgia Tech, Justus was known mostly for his defensive prowess in his first two seasons in Atlanta. He has made progress at the plate this spring and blossomed into one of the best all-around college prospects at his position. He lacks a true plus tool but has a chance to hit and can stay at short in pro ball, which is more than most of his peers can say.

An average runner with a solid arm, Justus isn't a flashy defender but gets the job done at shortstop. He has good anticipation and a quick first step, which give him plenty of range. He also has fast hands and the ability to make throws from a variety of angles.

While Justus likely fits toward the bottom of a big league batting order, he has improved significantly at the plate in 2016. He makes consistent contact and drives the ball with authority on occasion after rarely doing so in the past. He's not a burner but has good instincts on the basepaths.


No other Jackets listed.

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016/#list=atl?list=draft

 

[RoosterJacket]

So my final guess on which guys will be drafted and which will not be at GT in the fall:
Drafted and gone or see ya in the fall
Trammell - gone
Justus - gone
Gorst - gone
Gold - gone
Gonzalez - obviously gone...
Pabst - gone
Kel - see ya in the fall
Parr - see ya in the fall
X Curry - see ya in the fall
McCann* - see ya in the fall

First round starts tomorrow. Trammell likely gets drafted tomorrow. Justus likely top 5 rounds. Beyond that is anybody's guess.

*felt like I needed to throw in a random incoming freshman getting drafted kind of like Jackson Webb last year. Catchers seem to get drafted a lot.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

So my final guess on which guys will be drafted and which will not be at GT in the fall:
Drafted and gone or see ya in the fall
Trammell - gone
Justus - gone
Gorst - gone
Gold - gone
Gonzalez - obviously gone...
Pabst - gone
Kel - see ya in the fall
Parr - see ya in the fall
X Curry - see ya in the fall
McCann* - see ya in the fall

First round starts tomorrow. Trammell likely gets drafted tomorrow. Justus likely top 5 rounds. Beyond that is anybody's guess.

*felt like I needed to throw in a random incoming freshman getting drafted kind of like Jackson Webb last year. Catchers seem to get drafted a lot.

I was thinking about my last best guess before the draft. Agree with all except I think Pabst will be here and Kel will be gone.

One other Fr who I think is worth noting - Garrett Gooden will be here. He has the talent probably to go to MLB but since he isn't showing up on lists any more he is either hurt or indicated he isn't interested in the draft. Again, I have no inside info.

For all of our players, I hope they do well in the draft since it's their dream. GT will be there long after their MLB careers are done.

 

[RoosterJacket]

I was thinking about my last best guess before the draft. Agree with all except I think Pabst will be here and Kel will be gone.

One other Fr who I think is worth noting - Garrett Gooden will be here. He has the talent probably to go to MLB but since he isn't showing up on lists any more he is either hurt or indicated he isn't interested in the draft. Again, I have no inside info.

For all of our players, I hope they do well in the draft since it's their dream. GT will be there long after their MLB careers are done.

I'm thinking the same as you on Gooden. I also could see Pitts getting drafted somewhere if he has expressed an interest in continuing his playing career.

 

[McCamish Maniacs]

Trammell not picked yet. I'll pretend for now that it's because he told teams he's not signing

 

[ball4life66]

I was thinking about my last best guess before the draft. Agree with all except I think Pabst will be here and Kel will be gone.

One other Fr who I think is worth noting - Garrett Gooden will be here. He has the talent probably to go to MLB but since he isn't showing up on lists any more he is either hurt or indicated he isn't interested in the draft. Again, I have no inside info.

For all of our players, I hope they do well in the draft since it's their dream. GT will be there long after their MLB careers are done.

I hope so. Looks like Gooden had a great senior year.

 

[ball4life66]

Taylor Trammell #35 to the Reds...they have the largest pool in the draft. They also took Tyler Stepehenson at #11 last year.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Taylor Trammell #35 to the Reds...they have the largest pool in the draft. They also took Tyler Stepehenson at #11 last year.

As expected ...... today and this weekend will have much more impact on us.

Baseball America had the following statement for # 33 Carlson:
".... Carlson could be a premium defender at first base or fit on an outfield corner, and he could stick in center field short-term for Cal State Fullerton. Scouts see a baseball rat who turns 18 in October ......"
Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2016-draft-tracker/#KKwqsGb6PHlcXqUU.99

This implies he is playing with Cal State Fullerton?! Can you graduate from HS early, go to a college team and then, if not 18, get drafted? Never heard about it before.

 

[FredJacket]

@GTNavyNuke and @RoosterJacket ... I will admit gentlemen I am not much into MLB draft to the extent you guys appear to be. Is there any indication on these Tech Juniors' affinity to playing college baseball? Are your predictions based solely on what you see as their "stock"... and the higher picks are gone? ...or are you factoring in 'feelings' or real knowledge regarding each guy's decision matrix.

I really am selfish and hope against hope a guy like Justus who is fun to watch may simply want to play another (final) year at Tech. I understand and would not begrudge any of them deciding to leave for a professional career. However... I would love having each of them back on campus next year.

Finally.... Kel? Is his health an issue? Will his draft position not fall based on the last 3-4 weeks of the season. I really think he was hobbled (a lot)...eyeballing him. No inside scoop. I know Nuke saw a lack of focus... That is certainly possible (vice injury); but difficult to say for me.

 

[Squints]

Connor Justus taken in the fifth round by the Angels. 156th pick overall.

Congrats to him!

 

[RoosterJacket]

@GTNavyNuke and @RoosterJacket ... I will admit gentlemen I am not much into MLB draft to the extent you guys appear to be. Is there any indication on these Tech Juniors' affinity to playing college baseball? Are your predictions based solely on what you see as their "stock"... and the higher picks are gone? ...or are you factoring in 'feelings' or real knowledge regarding each guy's decision matrix.

Finally.... Kel? Is his health an issue? Will his draft position not fall based on the last 3-4 weeks of the season. I really think he was hobbled (a lot)...eyeballing him. No inside scoop. I know Nuke saw a lack of focus... That is certainly possible (vice injury); but difficult to say for me.

Mine is based on just stock and if the $ they could sign for this year be a good bit more than next year. I don't know anything about each guy's financial situation/academia interest/or how much they like the college life and college baseball to speak on those areas.

Not often do you see juniors truly improve their stock in a return to their senior year to warrant an increase in a potential signing bonus. Following their junior season is the optimal $ maximization for them.

Kel surely struggled some late in the season. Also unknown if there's an injury he was dealing with or could've just been a season's wear and tear that he was dealing with.

 

[SwarmArmy]

Gonzo to the Braves in round 6!!! He is the first position player the Braves have taken this draft! Go Go Go Gonzo!!

 

[GTNavyNuke]

For all you Georgiaphiles, it is insane that 9 of the top 100 picks come from one state. There are 49 other states in the union: http://m.mlb.com/draft/tracker#!ft=state&fv=ga

At the end of day 2 and 316 picks (10 rounds), I'd like to update and re-project our draft losses this year. I only think we lose Justus and Trammel (who was not coming). Gonzo was gone anyway before the draft. So even though we are only 25% of the way through the draft (first 10 rounds), I'm ready to call it (and be wrong yet again.) Time for the Kool-Aid.

I think we keep Gold and Gorst. That's because the slot values are maximum of $100,000 for all the rounds tomorrow (Rounds 11-40). If they had been interested and communicated that to the scouts, I think they'd be drafted by now. Gorst with a frickin 0.55 ERA in 49 IP not drafted yet???? He must have decided to increase his value next year. As can Gold.

That is fricking fabulous if it holds up. We keep:

• Kel (who must have said no thanks. He will greatly increase his value if he learns more baseball fundamentals. He has become a much better hitter and is striking out less especially later in the season. http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=kel-johnson)
• Gooden and all the other commits (I single out Gooden only since we are desperate for pitching)
• Pabst (could be drafted low and go given how good Joey Bart is, but I really hope not. I think he will have a hard time in the minors unless he can hit better. Don't get me wrong, Pabst 16 pitch at bat against Clemson probably won us that series and got us into the NCAAs (as well as ACC tourney). He is getting better, http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=arden-pabst, but he probably doesn't have major league hitting projected.)

We may have enough pitching next year that even the Baseball Gods can't stop us.

 

[65Jacket]

Please don't dare the Baseball Gods, they always get the last laugh on us.

 

[FredJacket]

Best of luck to Connor. Looks like he's a pro now. No surprise. He'll be missed. He deserves all good things that come to him.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Please don't dare the Baseball Gods, they always get the last laugh on us.

Congrats to Justus. He deserves it.

Not mocking the Baseball Gods hasn't worked, so I'll try mocking them.

 

[RoosterJacket]

At the end of day 2 and 316 picks (10 rounds), I'd like to update and re-project our draft losses this year. I only think we lose Justus and Trammel (who was not coming). Gonzo was gone anyway before the draft. So even though we are only 25% of the way through the draft (first 10 rounds), I'm ready to call it (and be wrong yet again.) Time for the Kool-Aid.

I think we keep Gold and Gorst. That's because the slot values are maximum of $100,000 for all the rounds tomorrow (Rounds 11-40). If they had been interested and communicated that to the scouts, I think they'd be drafted by now. Gorst with a frickin 0.55 ERA in 49 IP not drafted yet???? He must have decided to increase his value next year. As can Gold.

That is fricking fabulous if it holds up. We keep:

• Kel (who must have said no thanks. He will greatly increase his value if he learns more baseball fundamentals. He has become a much better hitter and is striking out less especially later in the season. http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=kel-johnson)
• Gooden and all the other commits (I single out Gooden only since we are desperate for pitching)
• Pabst (could be drafted low and go given how good Joey Bart is, but I really hope not. I think he will have a hard time in the minors unless he can hit better. Don't get me wrong, Pabst 16 pitch at bat against Clemson probably won us that series and got us into the NCAAs (as well as ACC tourney). He is getting better, http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=arden-pabst, but he probably doesn't have major league hitting projected.)

We may have enough pitching next year that even the Baseball Gods can't stop us.

I hope you are right on Gorst and Gold, but they can still get more than the 100K slot value. If the teams that draft them sign any of their top ten round picks for less than slot value, they can use that leftover slot $ towards their other picks. This is why you see more seniors being drafted in rounds 6-10 than you did 5 years ago. Teams know they can sign them for singinfiacntly lower than slot value resulting in "extra" slot money to spend on other draft picks.

Probably right on Kel--supposedly he did the same thing when coming out of HS.

Interesting note on Gooden--in the Perfect Game tournament last week, his velocity topped at 85. Austin Wilhite topped at 89 and Girffin Jolliff topped at 86.

I think Pabst will likely sign of/when he gets drafted as I would think rather than split time next season at GT, he'd rather get started with his professional career. No inside info at all, just a general feeling.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I hope you are right on Gorst and Gold, but they can still get more than the 100K slot value. If the teams that draft them sign any of their top ten round picks for less than slot value, they can use that leftover slot $ towards their other picks. This is why you see more seniors being drafted in rounds 6-10 than you did 5 years ago. Teams know they can sign them for significantly lower than slot value resulting in "extra" slot money to spend on other draft picks.

Probably right on Kel--supposedly he did the same thing when coming out of HS.

Interesting note on Gooden--in the Perfect Game tournament last week, his velocity topped at 85. Austin Wilhite topped at 89 and Girffin Jolliff topped at 86.

I think Pabst will likely sign of/when he gets drafted as I would think rather than split time next season at GT, he'd rather get started with his professional career. No inside info at all, just a general feeling.

Yes, Gold and Gorst can get more than the slot value.

I looked at the players drafted in the next 100 (picks 316 to 415) in the 2005 draft. ( http://www.thebaseballcube.com/draf...0&Signed=&Active=&Source=&Bats=&Throws=&Sort= ) While the slot is $100K, the average for these 100 was $170K. But most of the increase over the slot was for HS picks who averaged $260K. The college players who don't appear to be SRs averaged $130K. And those who appeared to be SRs averaged $160K (but that was due to one person who got $400K, Brantley Bell, who may have had a year of eligibility left http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=brantley-bell )

Also on the 100 players with the average bonus of $170K, there was a large std dev of $140K.

The highest bonus went to HS picks. But there were two college Jrs, Josh Rogers of L'ville and Max Schrock of USCe, who got $500K. There is a penalty for paying over the slot amount ( http://m.mlb.com/news/article/170470526/2016-draft-bonus-pools-pick-values ).

So you have effectively rained on my enthusiasm, so I'll go cut the grass in misery. (kidding)

One question - what was Gooden's recorded velocity before?