2016 MLB Draft

[GTNavyNuke]

The draft starts June 9th this year and is a big deal as always. First the players on the team I think are eligible:

Pitts, Wiseman, Wrubel and Gonzo are done eligibility for sure with Gonzo being the biggest loss. Everyone else could stay.

Of those eligible I guess are most likely to be drafted: Zac, Gorst, Gold, Justus and Pabst. Losing any of them will be a big loss. Any guesses as to who will go to the MLB?

 

[GTNavyNuke]

And here are are our commits with the preseason Perfect Game Team they are on after their name if they were on one:

PG team
Xzavion Curry SS 1
Garrett Gooden RHP 1
Griffin Jolliff RHP
Kyle McCann C 2
Parker McCoy IF
Chase Murray OF 3
Jay Shadday LHP
Connor Thomas LHP
Taylor Trammell OF 2
Austin Wilhite IF 2
Nick Wilhite OF 2
Jay Wilson RHP

I doubt we see Curry or Gooden. But you never know, even though about 95% of the top 100 HS players drafted go to the minors, we got Hughes. Any others likely to go to the minors?

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Finally here is the rest of the team and why I don't think they are draft eligible. Any mistakes?

 

[RoosterJacket]

Based on those ages, Kel and Datoc are draft eligible this year. Hopefully Kel sticks around another year!!

As for HS guys, I think the two most likely to skip GT are Curry and Trammell. Both of those guys' athleticism and potential may be too much for MLB teams to pass on. Gooden is also a possibility...I haven't seen how he's done this season thus far.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Wouldn't Kel be 20 years and 11 months old on the start of the draft (6/9/16)? Or is there another date to be 21 by?

 

[ball4life66]

And here are are our commits with the preseason Perfect Game Team they are on after their name if they were on one:

PG team
Xzavion Curry SS 1
Garrett Gooden RHP 1
Griffin Jolliff RHP
Kyle McCann C 2
Parker McCoy IF
Chase Murray OF 3
Jay Shadday LHP
Connor Thomas LHP
Taylor Trammell OF 2
Austin Wilhite IF 2
Nick Wilhite OF 2
Jay Wilson RHP

I doubt we see Curry or Gooden. But you never know, even though about 95% of the top 100 HS players drafted go to the minors, we got Hughes. Any others likely to go to the minors?

Taylor Trammell is the least likely to make it to campus. I've heard that is the only player Danny Hall is worried about losing but who knows. Perfect Game has Trammell in the top 100 and I believe Curry and Gooden in the top 200. This is how they rate our commits in order

Taylor Trammell
OF 6-2 195 L-L Mt Paran Christian Powder Springs GA

Georgia Tech

Xzavion Curry
SS 6-0 180 R-R Mays Atlanta GA

Georgia Tech

Garrett Gooden
RHP 6-5 210 R-R St. Pius X Decatur GA

Georgia Tech

Nick Wilhite
OF 5-10 170 L-L Buford Buford GA

Georgia Tech

Austin Wilhite
2B 5-10 165 R-R Buford Buford GA

Georgia Tech

Jay Wilson
RHP 6-5 185 L-R Loveland Cincinnati OH

Georgia Tech

Kyle McCann
C 6-3 205 L-R Lambert Suwanee GA

Georgia Tech

Chase Murray
OF 6-1 180 L-R Cincinatti Hills Christian Academy Cincinnati OH

Georgia Tech

Thomas
LHP 6-0 155 L-L Tift County Omega GA

Georgia Tech

Parker McCoy

SS 5-11 165 L-R Walton Marietta GA

Georgia Tech

Jay Shadday
LHP 6-1 190 L-L Darlington Rome GA

Georgia Tech

Griffin Jolliff
RHP 6-2 210 R-R Buford Buford GA

Georgia Tech

Andrew Archer
RHP 6-5 185 R-R Wesleyan Duluth GA

Georgia Tech

 

[RoosterJacket]

Wouldn't Kel be 20 years and 11 months old on the start of the draft (6/9/16)? Or is there another date to be 21 by?

The cutoff date is 45 days after the first day of the draft. Found this:
6. Is attending a four-year college and is age 21 or older (or will turn 21 within 45 days of the draft);

 

[GTNavyNuke]

The cutoff date is 45 days after the first day of the draft. Found this:
6. Is attending a four-year college and is age 21 or older (or will turn 21 within 45 days of the draft);

Thanks. So then Kel is eligible as you pointed out.

Kel may go as a sophomore but could always wait to be a junior. He wouldn't want to wait until he was a senior but he could still go another year to increase his value. As hot as he has been I think his draft stock is very high right now. It will come down to how high he is drafted.

Sucks having so many good players (tic).

 

[Squints]

We'll probably have a better idea in a month or so when the back-room conversations between teams and the prospects start to leak. Really impossible to know much until then.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I was thinking about the draft and got some D1Baseball data to help me along...... tonight our current roster and those eligible for the draft with eligibility left (Pitts, Joe Wiseman, Wruble, Gonzo gone regardless and Gonzo will hurt).

Here's the order I think they get drafted in (bold means I think they will be in MLB next year)

Connor Justus - D1 has him as 2nd best SS in NCAA. He goes since he's a Jr and will get screwed as a Sr if he stays. He is smooth as they come as SS and leads the team with a .381 batting average. 95% likely to go.
Kel Johnson - D1 has him as 23rd best OF. He is in the 70's of all NCAA player eligible. 90% likely to go, only wild card is he is a So so he can stay and still get a great offer as a Jr.
Brandon Gold - not in top 50 starting pitchers by D1. I think he gets a top 5 round. Probably goes since he's a Jr and potential for injury. He is our best starter and given his development from 3rd baseman, I think someone will take a chance on him. 95% likely to go.
Matthew Gorst - 30% likely to leave. I don't think he has pitched enough (26 IP) on a media darling team. But with a .68 ERA he may get a good enough draft spot.
Ben Parr - 20% likely to leave. 4.08 ERA but improving. He could be the next Heddinger.

From here on not drafted:
Arden Pabst. Although a great catcher, don't think he has the bat yet. Maybe next year. Glad we will have him next year!
Ryan Peurifoy
Jared Datoc
Keenan Innis
Coleman Poje
Matt Phillips
Zac Ryan
Tanner Shelton
Ben Schniederjans - disappeared, doubt he comes back
Jon King - I doubt comes back due to injury

PS FWIW, English was the 20th best 1st baseman. Wait till he starts pitching. He'll be gone in two years.

 

[RoosterJacket]

Good assessment.

Justus--yep, he is gone. His stock will never be higher.
Kel is interesting. I think if he's not a top 3 rounds pick, he comes back and tries to improve his stock.
Gold--I could see Gold going in rounds 5-10 because he will likely leave as well and teams won't have to offer him too much to sign him.
Gorst--I think he could go in top 15 rounds and I think he will sign. Just hard to come back as a senior knowing the $ will likely be significantly less.
Parr, Peurifoy, and Pabst--I think all three may get drafted (Parr may be least likely). If any of them get offered more than 50K, hard to see any of them turning it down. Not sure any would improve their stock coming back for their senior years. Pabst has already lost a lot of playing time to Bart this season, so if he gets drafted, he's gone.

If 2 out of CJ, Gold, and Kel stay, that would be awesome for our team next year...I'd be happy with just 1 of them staying.

 

[ball4life66]

Yeah I doubt 90% chance Kel leaves unless he just dominates the rest of the year. I think he is potential 1st-3rd round guy if he comes back. MLB just updated their top 100 prospect list and no Jackets on the list but 2016 commit Taylor Trammel is #31. Gonna be a miracle if he makes it on campus.

Scouting grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 50 | Run: 70 | Arm: 45 | Field: 60 | Overall: 50

Trammell was the Georgia Class A football offensive player of the year after rushing for 2,479 yards and 36 touchdowns last fall and could have played football in college. Instead, he has decided to focus on the diamond going forward. He has committed to Georgia Tech for baseball only and is unlikely to join the Yellow Jackets because he figures to go in the first two rounds of the Draft.

Because he has divided his time between two sports, Trammell still is learning how to recognize pitches, handle offspeed offerings and tap into his raw power. He does show some feel for hitting and his well above-average speed will help him reach base. With his bat speed and strength, he could develop average or better pop.

Trammell also is figuring things out defensively, but he has the tools to be an asset in center field. He's working on improving the strength of his arm, which should be fine for center.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Yeah I doubt 90% chance Kel leaves unless he just dominates the rest of the year. I think he is potential 1st-3rd round guy if he comes back. MLB just updated their top 100 prospect list and no Jackets on the list but 2016 commit Taylor Trammel is #31. Gonna be a miracle if he makes it on campus.

Scouting grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 50 | Run: 70 | Arm: 45 | Field: 60 | Overall: 50

Trammell was the Georgia Class A football offensive player of the year after rushing for 2,479 yards and 36 touchdowns last fall and could have played football in college. Instead, he has decided to focus on the diamond going forward. He has committed to Georgia Tech for baseball only and is unlikely to join the Yellow Jackets because he figures to go in the first two rounds of the Draft.

Because he has divided his time between two sports, Trammell still is learning how to recognize pitches, handle offspeed offerings and tap into his raw power. He does show some feel for hitting and his well above-average speed will help him reach base. With his bat speed and strength, he could develop average or better pop.

Trammell also is figuring things out defensively, but he has the tools to be an asset in center field. He's working on improving the strength of his arm, which should be fine for center.

Where do you think Kel will be drafted? I figure he will go about 3rd to 5th round in the draft. Bonus of ~$400-$600K. So that would probably be enough to have most people leave early. But with him being a So, he'll get that extra chance next year and probably be higher. If my kid were drafted, I'd probably say stay as a fielder and go if he were a pitcher. But it's close and will depend on the specifics of the draft and offer. Whoever drafts Kel will have to pay full dollar and not "Hughes" him like the O's did. But either way, I really like everything I've heard about Kel and respect whatever his decision is.

 

[RoosterJacket]

Where do you think Kel will be drafted? I figure he will go about 3rd to 5th round in the draft. Bonus of ~$400-$600K. So that would probably be enough to have most people leave early. But with him being a So, he'll get that extra chance next year and probably be higher. If my kid were drafted, I'd probably say stay as a fielder and go if he were a pitcher. But it's close and will depend on the specifics of the draft and offer. Whoever drafts Kel will have to pay full dollar and not "Hughes" him like the O's did. But either way, I really like everything I've heard about Kel and respect whatever his decision is.

Agree with everything you said. 3rd-5th sounds about right. It probably really depends on what he tells scouts beforehand. If I were him, I'd throw out looking for at least a million in bonus $. Then it's on the teams to decide if they want to draft him knowing his amount or not.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

OK, earlier I looked at our current players. Now onto the commits and likelihood of not coming to GT. Here are our commits and discussion in order that I think they would be drafted based on talent (if a player says hell no I'm not going to minors, he isn't drafted high).

Here's some background first: Based on the study I did of the 2014 draft, first 10 rounds (315 offers) 100% of HS kids drafted went to MLB, next 10 rounds about 80% and 50% thereafter. Of course for the first 10 rounds in 2015 there was the "Hughes Exception" ..... https://gtswarm.com/threads/2015-mlb-draft-8-10-june.6859/#post-153143

Taylor Trammell OF - 99% - drafted in first few rounds and 99% likely to go pro. Anyway, Trammel is ranked by Perfect Game as 47th best HS player, 59th most likely to be drafted including NCAA players. D1 has him 30th and Max Preps #37.

Xzavion Curry SS - 99%- currently ranked about 135th for HS seniors so guess 200th in draft or 5-7th round. 99% likely to go pro if drafted that high. He already has a 92 mph fast ball and control (which either means he will be really good or be hurt).

Garrett Gooden RHP - 80%- ranked ~200 for HS seniors by PG and #88 by Max Preps so guess ~300th in draft. Around 10th round. I'll be optimistic and say 80% likely to go pro. 91 mph fast ball, this guy is all about pitching. He is a key to how successful this class is next year to being able to contribute. We need pitchers given our pitcher injury/attrition rate.

Nick Wilhite OF -65% - ranked ~221 so maybe 12th round. He plays OF and can pitch so he can develop. I think whether he comes to GT largely depends on his brother Austin's draft as well as his own. How cool would it be to play ACC baseball with your brother? Very fast bat (Zepp hitting metric of 93 mph bat speed at impact)

Austin Wilhite IF - 65% - ranked ~260 so maybe 16th round. Like Nick he can play field or pitch. And hit with Zepp bat speed of 89 mph.

Jay Wilson RHP - 30% - ranked ~300th so getting close to 20 round. Since I don't have any recent stats on him so even less certain than my typical WAG. I figure he may have decided to come to GT and isn't as actively trolling the MLB.

Kyle McCann C - 20% - ranked ~370. But as a catcher I would think he would go lower in draft. CN Also pitch with an 86 mph fastball.

Chase Murray OF - 10% - ranked ~ 425. As OF he will be best served

Parker McCoy IF - <10%. Ranked >=500.
Griffin Jolliff RHP - <10%. Ranked >=500. We need pitchers!
Jay Shadday LHP- <10%. Ranked >=500. We need pitchers!
Connor Thomas LHP- <10%. Ranked >=500. We need pitchers!
Andrew Archer RHP - <10%. Ranked >=500. Did I say we need pitchers?

 

[Stinger90]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CheH5VjWUAEGUw9.jpg
An updated look at incoming (recruiting) vs outgoing (draft) talent in ACC

 

[Stinger90]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CheH5VjWUAEGUw9.jpg
An updated look at incoming (recruiting) vs outgoing (draft) talent in ACC

Damn ! I'm batting a big fat zero. I meant to put this on the football thread. Sorry guys, got too much going on

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Damn ! I'm batting a big fat zero. I meant to put this on the football thread. Sorry guys, got too much going on

No kidding, we are closer to parity for baseball. But I bet that FSU, Miami and UNC regularly out recruit us in baseball too. Just no last year.

Bugger stronger faster wins more in football. That's why it is easier to predict individual football games than individual baseball games. But we don't want to let the football forum in on the secret that stars matter ......

 

[ball4life66]

OK, earlier I looked at our current players. Now onto the commits and likelihood of not coming to GT. Here are our commits and discussion in order that I think they would be drafted based on talent (if a player says hell no I'm not going to minors, he isn't drafted high).

Here's some background first: Based on the study I did of the 2014 draft, first 10 rounds (315 offers) 100% of HS kids drafted went to MLB, next 10 rounds about 80% and 50% thereafter. Of course for the first 10 rounds in 2015 there was the "Hughes Exception" ..... https://gtswarm.com/threads/2015-mlb-draft-8-10-june.6859/#post-153143

Taylor Trammell OF - 99% - drafted in first few rounds and 99% likely to go pro. Anyway, Trammel is ranked by Perfect Game as 47th best HS player, 59th most likely to be drafted including NCAA players. D1 has him 30th and Max Preps #37.

Xzavion Curry SS - 99%- currently ranked about 135th for HS seniors so guess 200th in draft or 5-7th round. 99% likely to go pro if drafted that high. He already has a 92 mph fast ball and control (which either means he will be really good or be hurt).

Garrett Gooden RHP - 80%- ranked ~200 for HS seniors by PG and #88 by Max Preps so guess ~300th in draft. Around 10th round. I'll be optimistic and say 80% likely to go pro. 91 mph fast ball, this guy is all about pitching. He is a key to how successful this class is next year to being able to contribute. We need pitchers given our pitcher injury/attrition rate.

Nick Wilhite OF -65% - ranked ~221 so maybe 12th round. He plays OF and can pitch so he can develop. I think whether he comes to GT largely depends on his brother Austin's draft as well as his own. How cool would it be to play ACC baseball with your brother? Very fast bat (Zepp hitting metric of 93 mph bat speed at impact)

Austin Wilhite IF - 65% - ranked ~260 so maybe 16th round. Like Nick he can play field or pitch. And hit with Zepp bat speed of 89 mph.

Jay Wilson RHP - 30% - ranked ~300th so getting close to 20 round. Since I don't have any recent stats on him so even less certain than my typical WAG. I figure he may have decided to come to GT and isn't as actively trolling the MLB.

Kyle McCann C - 20% - ranked ~370. But as a catcher I would think he would go lower in draft. CN Also pitch with an 86 mph fastball.

Chase Murray OF - 10% - ranked ~ 425. As OF he will be best served

Parker McCoy IF - <10%. Ranked >=500.
Griffin Jolliff RHP - <10%. Ranked >=500. We need pitchers!
Jay Shadday LHP- <10%. Ranked >=500. We need pitchers!
Connor Thomas LHP- <10%. Ranked >=500. We need pitchers!
Andrew Archer RHP - <10%. Ranked >=500. Did I say we need pitchers?

Weren't guys like Bart, Johnson, Stallings, Hughes all ranked about the same as Curry and Gooden? I don't if I'd go that high on all those %'s. I would say good chance Trammell doesn't make it on campus but good shot with the others.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Weren't guys like Bart, Johnson, Stallings, Hughes all ranked about the same as Curry and Gooden? I don't if I'd go that high on all those %'s. I would say good chance Trammell doesn't make it on campus but good shot with the others.

You are right about Bart (ranked 120), Johnson (ranked 47th), Stallings (ranked 51) being ranked high. The thing is that they weren't drafted high. Bart was 27th round, Kel and Stallings not drafted. So they didn't go.

Curry (ranked 140th) and Gooden (ranked 206th) are lower ranked than the ones you mentioned.

The only thing I can project on is their rankings ..... most players who are ranked high get drafted much higher. So these guys probably said we don't want to play in the MLB yet. Considering that, maybe my guesses may be high. But we have lost a lot of good commits to the draft like all colleges.

Since I don't know what our current recruits are saying to the scouts, all I can do is go on the rankings and what most commits do. I hope that Curry and Gooden come to GT, but most players ranked that high don't.