2015 Warmest Year on Record

MikeJackets1967

Helluva Engineer
Messages
14,844
Location
Lovely Ducktown,Tennessee
Irma is probably going to be a real ***** in about a week. Looks like Atlantic landfall between Florida and NC somewhere and then bury herself inland. So much for the high pressure keeping her away. May still happen that she stays at sea but it's less likely and our run of good luck may run out on the East Coast. Damn. Started thinking about / doing preps already.

My two favorite sites for tracking are WeatherUnderground ...... check out the Ensemble Models chart ...... https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2017/hurricane-irma

Of course the best site for 3-4 days out is the Navy site :p https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/.../www/atlantic/tropics/microvap/dmsp&TYPE=ssmi
It looks like the drought is S.E. Tennessee will be a thing of the past pretty soon:D
 

GTNavyNuke

Helluva Engineer
Featured Member
Messages
10,063
Location
Williamsburg Virginia
It looks like the drought is S.E. Tennessee will be a thing of the past pretty soon:D

I still give Irma a 30% chance of not making landfall. Once really cool chart Weather Underground has is "Historical" which shows all 11 hurricanes since 1851 that are about where Irma started. Only 0ne made landfall in the US. I kind of knew that since I follow these things.

But this time looks different ...... if she keeps her speed up she'll get pushed offshore. But if there is nothing to stop her progress, she'll ram into the US and Tenn may get some rain. I kind of doubt it though. The west side of hurricanes is usually fairly dry and it's the north east quadrant which has the heavy rain.

Oh yeah, hurricanes are bigger and badder than they used to be (on average) since the water and air temps are higher. I've said that before but it's really important since the strength goes up more than linearly with the increase in temperature. People can argue over minutiae but that is indisputable. Get slapped in the face enough times (I've been though 8 or so hurricanes) and you really respect their power more. And tend to care more about what makes them worse.
 

Whiskey_Clear

Banned
Messages
10,486
Well to be fair it evolved into a debate over AGW in general. I'm sure Michael Mann will declare 2017 the hottest on record....certainly doesn't match my own personal experience but I only live in the south....I'm sure it's vastly hotter everywhere else across the globe:rolleyes:
 

GTNavyNuke

Helluva Engineer
Featured Member
Messages
10,063
Location
Williamsburg Virginia
It looks like the drought is S.E. Tennessee will be a thing of the past pretty soon:D

Unfortunately looks like this morning that the drought in SE Tenn will get a flood. What you need is a long steady rain; here the dried out soil doesn't absorb water and it just runs off.

If the WU Ensemble estimate is right, Irma will go to Atlanta and make a big loop and then come back around. Pretty awful when these damn things don't just hit ground and accelerate away. https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2017/hurricane-irma

Irma is going to be devastating with the amount of inland flooding in addition to the limited size catastrophic wind damage.
 

GTNavyNuke

Helluva Engineer
Featured Member
Messages
10,063
Location
Williamsburg Virginia

Nothing really debunked here. Just sensationalism to suit viewpoint. Concerning sea level rise, the point is correct that Miami is seeing more sea level rise, but that just ignores the bigger issue of global sea level rise which along with average sea temperature is what I believe to be the best indicator of global climate change as opposed to local weather. "The global average sea level is rising at about 3.4 millimeters a year, because of higher temperatures, which melt ice sheets and cause water to expand. The world’s oceans don’t rise uniformly, though: Water sloshes around the planet, creating “hot spots.” The U.S. East Coast below North Carolina’s Cape Hatteras saw an unusual sea level increase from 2011 to 2015, rising three times higher than the global average, according to University of Florida research published last month. In southeastern Florida from 2011 to 2015, sea levels rose six times faster than the rate measured from 1996 to 2010. Anomalies such as these, though not a function of human-driven climate change, make an already bad situation worse for a part of the U.S. particularly susceptible to hurricanes." https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-07/florida-s-beaches-await-irma-s-erosion-wrath

Also note the true waste of taxpayer money to "renourish" beaches at great expense to benefit few people. Typical human arrogance to think we can outlast Mother Nature. We need to be looking for ways to move inland or live like Denmark underwater with very expensive levees; using funds for that takes away from other needs for the rest of the country. We can't do it all.
 

Whiskey_Clear

Banned
Messages
10,486
@GTNavyNuke

How many hundreds of billions do you want the U.S. to spend to save the planet? What affect do you think this expenditure will have on our nation's economy? Is no price to high? How much affect on Global temperature change do you expect this expenditure to make?

Levees might work in Denmark but they aren't very efficient in hurricane zones....see New Orleans.
 

GTNavyNuke

Helluva Engineer
Featured Member
Messages
10,063
Location
Williamsburg Virginia
@GTNavyNuke

How many hundreds of billions do you want the U.S. to spend to save the planet? What affect do you think this expenditure will have on our nation's economy? Is no price to high? How much affect on Global temperature change do you expect this expenditure to make?

Levees might work in Denmark but they aren't very efficient in hurricane zones....see New Orleans.

I think I answered a similar question before about global warming. Say $200B a year. We waste more than that on defense contractors (check their profit margins sometime). I expect the expenditure to save about 50% of the Gross Global Product which is several trillion a year in 50 years.

Levees work in Denmark since they don't have these fricking hurricanes. Has to do with colder water not being good for hurricanes.......... but I think we probably agree that levees are a waste in the US.
 

Whiskey_Clear

Banned
Messages
10,486
I think I answered a similar question before about global warming. Say $200B a year. We waste more than that on defense contractors (check their profit margins sometime). I expect the expenditure to save about 50% of the Gross Global Product which is several trillion a year in 50 years.

Levees work in Denmark since they don't have these fricking hurricanes. Has to do with colder water not being good for hurricanes.......... but I think we probably agree that levees are a waste in the US.

I think I recall your 200b response but didn't recall your estimate on the rest.

Yes there is waste in military expenditures. Yes I want to see that cleaned up. Trump actually made a tiny bit of headway here on a couple of programs simply huffing and puffing a bit. But I think it's disingenuous to excuse excessive spending on one program simply because there is waste in another. Military spending is one of the few things I support the federal government actually handling...but this begins to lead to another debate altogether. Our military keeps us free though and protects our nation from evil / radicals / nut jobs. Very robust expenditures in this sector won the Cold War while firing very few shots at the Soviets. If we had continued the SDI initiative perhaps we would have less to worry about regarding the DPRK and Iran.

I'm curious how you come to your 50% savings of GDP.
 

GTNavyNuke

Helluva Engineer
Featured Member
Messages
10,063
Location
Williamsburg Virginia
....... I'm curious how you come to your 50% savings of GDP.

BS rectal extraction. Assumed getting off the carbon cycle which will greatly improve our productivity and keep the US/ world out of wars in the Mid-East over oil resources. And factored in the increased likelihood that the human race doesn't destroy itself. The major powers will let the people in the Mid-East kill each other like they do in Africa where money isn't an issue. I answered facetiously since there is no way to know future "savings" since you can't hold everything constant in the world except for one change. And there are so many massive unexpected changes; look at the accuracy of any long term projection. Read "The Singularity is Near" about how artificial intelligence is going to surpass human intelligence within many of our lifetimes.

As to defense spending, there has been no change I have seen under Trump. Nor do I expect any as long as a defense build-up is foreseen. The barriers to entry are so high in much of the defense industry that they charge what they want and employ practices which ensure higher profits as well as erect barriers to others competing. The companies are much more motivated to increase profits than the Government side is to resist; to me it's not political party ideology but insolvable with our current form of government. And having Government organizations do the work has it's own problems and inefficiencies. Trump's simplistic approach to bluster without deep understanding or factual basis won't solve the problem.

Anyway, back to global warming. In my opinion, it's real and a large portion of the temperature increase is due to man-made CO2. But I don't think we'll do much to prevent the acceleration of it unless we break the carbon cycle; so that's my opinion and basis for 50% of the Gross Global Product. Your opinion is as good as mine on the benefits ......
 

Deleted member 2897

Guest
In my opinion

This is the problem "In my opinion". And its why Dr. Judith Curry got run off from Georgia Tech. She pointed out that all the science shows humans are polluting the planet and negatively impacting its climate. But at the same time she pointed out that the IPCC predicted that large global changes to carbon demand would only impact temperatures by a tiny fraction of one degree. In other words, what is the point. She and others also pointed out that we don't know enough to be arrogant enough to state definitively that if the world is 78.2F in 2018 instead of 78.1F that its anything to worry about.

And on a side note, Irma was officially categorized yesterday as tied for the 7th strongest hurricane ever to hit the US. Not an anomaly.
 
Top