114 Years of GT Football – How will history repeat?

[GTNavyNuke]

I’ve done posts the last four years about the history of GT football. Last year’s was at
https://gtswarm.com/threads/113-years-of-gt-football-%E2%80%93-2015-9-losses-to-2016-9-wins-to-2017.12624/

Here’s a graph that shows three things. First in red line, the average JHowell Power Ranking for that coach*. Next in green line the average winning % for that coach. And finally, in the blue bar, the average yearly JHowell ranking finish for that coach. (More on JHowell at http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm ) Guess what, Bobby Dodd was far and away the best and Bill Lewis the worst. Heisman came in a “respectable” second.

CPJ performance is right there with Gailey and has slipped below O’Leary. CPJ and Gailey have the same average Power Ranking but Gailey was slightly better in average in team ranking at the end of the year and in Average Winning %. A few years ago, I thought CPJ might overtake Alexander but not now.

Note I said performance when comparing coaches and not whether one coach would be better than another in today’s environment. All of these rankings are based on their peers at the time. I know the many reasons given why GT can’t compete like we used to. Regardless, these are the facts from an unbiased source (not alternative facts).

*I like the Power Ranking metric the best – they reflect Strength of Schedule. This has the discussion why https://gtswarm.com/threads/70-years-of-gt-football-–-strength-of-schedule.2489/

 

[GTNavyNuke]

There are always a lot of posts about how well we’ll do in a season based on the previous year. What is clear is that we have been more erratic under CPJ than O’Leary or Gailey. You really can’t blame that erratic performance on academics; so either it’s CPJ’s system or the current environment. Last season would have been much better is we hadn’t lost in OT to LSE or a tight one to Miami since we would have gone to a bowl. Or if we had played and won our 12th game. But we didn’t and that’s another fact.

This erratic performance makes it really hard to get a feel for where we will be in 2018. Here’s a chart that shows the change in power ranking from one year to the next on the Y-axis and the current year power ranking on the X-axis. As expected, when you start off with a high Power Ranking in the current year, you can expect to not do as well the next year. And vice versa.

This graph is more difficult to understand so here’s a description of the 2016 to 2017 seasons. The projection box on the right shows where in 2016 we ended up with a .693 Power ranking (good for us) and then the change to 2017 was a -.147 to the 2017 Power Ranking of .546. I did this graphically since a lot of numbers and dispersion data doesn’t make sense. Hopefully this does in showing that there is a lot of variability in the year to year performance.

This chart also shows where we were with our 2017 power ranking of .546 (or 54.6% likely to beat the average team on a neutral field.) on the x-axis and the next year change on the y-axis. You can see that the box above 0 is bigger than the box below zero. So in the past, we have usually done better after a down year. We should do better this year (2018) than we did in 2017 because our long term average performance has been higher.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

This chart shows that we have been increasing in regular season SoS on average over the past three years. The reason I say that is two of the last three years we have failed to make a bowl game and the data includes bowl games when we usually used to play in them. With that bowl game our SoS for the entire season would be higher. I’d attribute the higher SoS to the rise of the ACC overall.

https://www.mediafire.com/convkey/e656/31rw8aueic747ni6g.jpg

 

[tech_wreck47]

There are always a lot of posts about how well we’ll do in a season based on the previous year. What is clear is that we have been more erratic under CPJ than O’Leary or Gailey. You really can’t blame that erratic performance on academics; so either it’s CPJ’s system or the current environment. Last season would have been much better is we hadn’t lost in OT to LSE or a tight one to Miami since we would have gone to a bowl. Or if we had played and won our 12th game. But we didn’t and that’s another fact.

This erratic performance makes it really hard to get a feel for where we will be in 2018. Here’s a chart that shows the change in power ranking from one year to the next on the Y-axis and the current year power ranking on the X-axis. As expected, when you start off with a high Power Ranking in the current year, you can expect to not do as well the next year. And vice versa.

This graph is more difficult to understand so here’s a description of the 2016 to 2017 seasons. The projection box on the right shows where in 2016 we ended up with a .693 Power ranking (good for us) and then the change to 2017 was a -.147 to the 2017 Power Ranking of .546. I did this graphically since a lot of numbers and dispersion data doesn’t make sense. Hopefully this does in showing that there is a lot of variability in the year to year performance.

This chart also shows where we were with our 2017 power ranking of .546 (or 54.6% likely to beat the average team on a neutral field.) on the x-axis and the next year change on the y-axis. You can see that the box above 0 is bigger than the box below zero. So in the past, we have usually done better after a down year. We should do better this year (2018) than we did in 2017 because our long term average performance has been higher.

To your comment about erratic under CPJ compared to O’Leary or Gailey is unfair imo. You are talking about two different eras of football. It was so I’m different under those two compared to CPJ it’s not even funny. Those guys weren’t even coming close to facing the competition CPJ faces imo.

 

[iceeater1969]

This chart shows that we have been increasing in regular season SoS on average over the past three years. The reason I say that is two of the last three years we have failed to make a bowl game and the data includes bowl games when we usually used to play in them. With that bowl game our SoS for the entire season would be higher. I’d attribute the higher SoS to the rise of the ACC overall.

https://www.mediafire.com/convkey/e656/31rw8aueic747ni6g.jpg

Let the none number ?? engineers offer general comments.

Will take some time to digest.

SWARM has missed u!

 

[bravejason]

Since the mid 60’s or so, GT has essentially had a .500 football record. Great seasons are invariably balanced by awful seasons and many years are of the 7-6 variety.

From what I’ve read, the football program has suffered for a lack of financial resources over the last several years. Stansbury has increased the financial resources available to the program. However, those additional resources are currently only enough to bring the program back to the middle. Apparently, programs such as Duke, traditionally a doormat, have been increasing the financial support and thus have been able to surpass the GT program in some respects. Obviously, it will take a bit of time and sustaining of these additional resources in order for their effects to show up on the field.

With respect to teams like Clemson, they are definitely in a whole different level with respect to financial support. They didn’t get there overnight. Clemson probably started some metime after the arrival of Dani, which was a while ago now. To catch up with them, the recent increase will probably have to occur again and perhaps again. Assuming such increases are made and sustained, again, it’ll take a while for the effects to show up on the field.

What does this mean for 2018? I expect the coaches to be better prepared for the games. Recruiting improvements are long lead time and it’ll be 2019 if not 2020 before any recruiting gains can start to be seen on the field. The team still has depth issues. If the team is healthy, it’ll be a decent year. If the OL is whacked by the injury bug, it’ll be a struggle. Maybe the new DC will create some gains on the defensive side of the ball, but it will be year 1 of the system, so some hiccups will happen that may cancel out gains.

 

[Animal02]

Football spending not including scholarships.
Tech
2005 - $117,774
2015 - $169,097

ACC average
2005 - $115,680
2015 - $194,537

Tech has gone from slightly ahead to far below the average.

Sourc
http://spendingdatabase.knightcommission.org

 

[Longestday]

I wonder if winning can be predicted by program spend level. My guts says this is mostly true. You cannot buy yourself a golf game by buying the best clubs, but I think you can buy a top 25 college football team.

No doubt the program has been hampered with spend. Look no further than going cheep on defensive coaches.

Russel???? Really???

Staffing that low??? Really???

Don’t get me wrong. CPJ is responsible for fielding a good special teams and providing a good offense. (I give him a pass on the other head coaching issues due to difficulties outside his control) He has tackled most of the issues, other than possiblely OL coaching.

 

[Longestday]

The charts would have better clarity if spending versus conference average ratio was added as well as APR.

Or how about coaches salaries?

 

[CuseJacket]

Thanks for taking the time to put that data together, @GTNavyNuke. Much appreciated. Definitely something I look forward to each year.

 

[gtwcf]

Interesting analysis.

I wonder how much of the spending analysis takes into account that we don't have an OC now. Although I'll admit we had a similar situation with Gailey, but we had titled OCs even when he was calling plays.

I'm guessing the big difference is the back office operations, which can offload requirements from the field staff to allow them to concentrate on gameplanning and key recruiting targets. I don't know that facilities really make that much of an incremental difference part a certain point, or Miami would have fallen off the map.

I think it does show that the ACC was weak during the Gailey years. I think we've gotten more of the young HC talent in the ACC recently due to realistic expectations within the conference and no Saban. We may lag behind slightly at the position coaches, but I think that's slightly lower on the trajectory for program levers for success.

I'm going to be interested to see our new D this year. I'm also looking forward to not giving up 3-7 points at the end of each half....I think this could be 1-2 wins per year if we figure out 2 minute defense.

 

[Animal02]

The charts would have better clarity if spending versus conference average ratio was added as well as APR.

Or how about coaches salaries?

Salaries are in the website. I am in Ireland now and only have my phone and IPad to copy etc...it is a bit limiti g.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Salaries are in the website. I am in Ireland now and only have my phone and IPad to copy etc...it is a bit limiti g.

The Guinness is much better over there, isn't it? Enjoy the ambiance.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Thanks for taking the time to put that data together, @GTNavyNuke. Much appreciated. Definitely something I look forward to each year.

Thanks. I like to put the data together since it as objective as I can find. My words of course are subjective in what I talk about, but this is the data from JHowell.

And thanks Cuse for all you do on keeping the site going. I'll be going to the Bowling Green game for a reunion and maybe we can say hi again.

 

[Animal02]

The Guinness is much better over there, isn't it? Enjoy the ambiance.

Yes it is. And cheap compared to the states. Been driving around the country for the last two weeks...return home on Wednesday. (We spent a week in Iceland before getting to Ireland.....in hindsight two days would have been plenty)

 

[Animal02]

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I’ve done posts the last four years about the history of GT football. Last year’s was at
https://gtswarm.com/threads/113-years-of-gt-football-%E2%80%93-2015-9-losses-to-2016-9-wins-to-2017.12624/

Here’s a graph that shows three things. First in red line, the average JHowell Power Ranking for that coach*. Next in green line the average winning % for that coach. And finally, in the blue bar, the average yearly JHowell ranking finish for that coach. (More on JHowell at http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm ) Guess what, Bobby Dodd was far and away the best and Bill Lewis the worst. Heisman came in a “respectable” second.

CPJ performance is right there with Gailey and has slipped below O’Leary. CPJ and Gailey have the same average Power Ranking but Gailey was slightly better in average in team ranking at the end of the year and in Average Winning %. A few years ago, I thought CPJ might overtake Alexander but not now.

Note I said performance when comparing coaches and not whether one coach would be better than another in today’s environment. All of these rankings are based on their peers at the time. I know the many reasons given why GT can’t compete like we used to. Regardless, these are the facts from an unbiased source (not alternative facts).

*I like the Power Ranking metric the best – they reflect Strength of Schedule. This has the discussion why https://gtswarm.com/threads/70-years-of-gt-football-–-strength-of-schedule.2489/

I haven't been following much since we lost to USF. But the perennial question of head coach comes up, probably since we win less than 60% of our games on average.

Look at the graph above again. Since 1995, our three coaches have had about the same winning performance. I liked O'Leary best, but that is just a preference.

So when we change coaches, we'll probably stay about the same.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

After 3/4 of the season, we aren't doing as well as usual under CPJ.

While our winning % of 55.6 (5-4) is about the average of 56.9% in CPJ's previous 10 years, the 61st national ranking is worse than the 43rd average. Also, our Power Ranking is .599 which is lower than the .634 average.

It is as it is. The chart below was for before the season.

 

[TheSilasSonRising]

Wish, instead of numbers, Adidas would design our jerseys with graphs instead.

But really, very interesting research by the posters putting all this together.

 

[iceeater1969]

Sure seems like the certain win against the " non major teams " which were added to schedule during time of changing from 11 to 12 game season is coach grade inflation.

Elon, Presbyterian?
Alcorn, bowling green?