112 Years of GT Football - How Bad Were We Last Year?

[GTNavyNuke]

Last year I did a post on 111 Years of GT football looking ahead with great anticipation and trying to see how we were likely to end up the year. Of course I was way optimistic. https://gtswarm.com/threads/111-years-of-gt-football.6986/#post-160714

This last year was one of the worst collapses in GT football; not just wins but also Power Ranking. I have done this type study twice before, including the 2013 season, where I talk a lot more about why I like Power Ranking somewhat more than W/L. Basically I like Power Ranking since it takes into account the strength of schedule and where you play your tough games. A Power Ranking of .590 means the team is 59% likely to beat the average team on a neutral field. https://gtswarm.com/threads/70-years-of-gt-football-–-odds-of-getting-a-better-coach-than-cpj.2524/

So here’s the historical data updated for this year:

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Next onto CPJ. I hoped this year’s team would repeat winning Coastal and CPJ would be clearly better than O’Leary in average Power Ranking or average wins. Instead, CPJ has slipped back well behind Dodd, Heisman, Alexander and O’Leary.

CPJ and Gailey are about tied now. Gailey’s teams had a better ranking at the end of the year (38th vice 43rd) and Gailey had to play a tougher SOS (66% for Gailey vice 62% for CPJ). But CPJ edges out Gailey in Average Winning % (58% to 57%) and Power Ranking (63.7% to 63.4%). So on average in CPJ’s 8 years, he had been as good as his predecessor.

Here’s the data:

 

[GTNavyNuke]

The good news (tic) is that there have been 5 times in the last 111 where the collapse has been worse than this year’s .292 decrease in Power Ranking. Three were under Alexander (1939 to 40 = -.402; 1933 to 34 = -.331; and 1928 to 29 =-.315) and once under Dodd (1956 to 57 =-.322) and once under Carson following Dodd (1966 to 67 =-.320). CPJ’s 2009 to 10 was just about as bad with a decrease of .277.

We had a really tough schedule last year; without a bowl game which increases the SOS, our SOS was .712. But that tough schedule is why our Power Ranking wasn’t even worse. While I agree that an unusual number of injuries last year affected things, sh!t happens and I’m looking at averages. So gifts and excuses tend to average out.

So what do I expect this year? For us to do marginally better.

Starting with this year’s Power Stinking of .505, on average we’ll do about .081 better next year. Or end up with a Power Ranking of .586 which is about 63rd with 7 wins (in 13 games).

As far as long term, I think the challenges for mid-level teams like GT are only going to increase with the continuing move towards a semi-pro level. I support giving stipends and increasing compensation to football players but it will make recruiting the kids who are really majoring in football even harder.

 

[collegeballfan]

Last year I did a post on 111 Years of GT football looking ahead with great anticipation and trying to see how we were likely to end up the year. Of course I was way optimistic. https://gtswarm.com/threads/111-years-of-gt-football.6986/#post-160714

This last year was one of the worst collapses in GT football; not just wins but also Power Ranking. I have done this type study twice before, including the 2013 season, where I talk a lot more about why I like Power Ranking somewhat more than W/L. Basically I like Power Ranking since it takes into account the strength of schedule and where you play your tough games. A Power Ranking of .590 means the team is 59% likely to beat the average team on a neutral field. https://gtswarm.com/threads/70-years-of-gt-football-–-odds-of-getting-a-better-coach-than-cpj.2524/

So here’s the historical data updated for this year:

What is the one single defining fact that separates the Dodd era from the two subsequent eras?

 

[4shotB]

CPJ and Gailey are about tied now. Gailey’s teams had a better ranking at the end of the year (38th vice 43rd) and Gailey had to play a tougher SOS (66% for Gailey vice 62% for CPJ). But CPJ edges out Gailey in Average Winning % (58% to 57%) and Power Ranking (63.7% to 63.4%). So on average in CPJ’s 8 years, he had been as good as his predecessor.

while I have to agree with your last statement in light of the data, unfortunately it may be the most "damning with faint praise" statement as I have ever read. To me, the most frustrating thing...give Chan's team's Paul's O or give Paul's team's Chan's D, and the results for both would be order of magnitude different. Frustrating to say the least.

 

[LibertyTurns]

What is the one single defining fact that separates the Dodd era from the two subsequent eras?

He left the SEC?

 

[awbuzz]

... integration...

 

[awbuzz]

What is the one single defining fact that separates the Dodd era from the two subsequent eras?

... integration...

 

[iceeater1969]

The graph makes the Carson drop off look better than it was.

In 65 and 66 gt was good and very good against 10 team schedule w no easy games. The so called easy games were duke, tcu, Texas a m , Clemson.

In 67,68,69 we dropped in talent but had even tougher schedule and went 4-6 all three years. The coaching was not that bad but that time was deemed so terrible - an article by Furman Bisher had a tag line - Ramlin wreck is ga tech and a helluva shape its in. The 47-8 loss to UGA in Athens was torture


With the new 13 game schedule (everybody with a pulse goes to a bowl) the old 4-6 record would ratio to 5.2-7.8. Imo - 1 game is a scheduled win ( I have great mercer seats to trade for any clemson seats) . That makes a current 6-7 record equal to the three Carson terrible years.

Now 6-7 is the new terrible.

Last year gt was close in most games but only won 1 game besides the 2 easy teams.
We were approx 3 wins shy of terrible.

With a little better execution we could have easily have roared past terrible and made it to the new definition of not so bad = 7-5. I will be disappointed if we don't bounce back 7-5 ( beat 2 easy teams and split with rest). A bowl game loss doesn't matter to me.

 

[Sideways]

What is the one single defining fact that separates the Dodd era from the two subsequent eras?

He could sell sand to an Arab. Dodd was perfect for an era when parents were much more interested and involved in their child getting a good education. This was prior to pro football being in Atlanta. He was a tremendous recruiter and got top players from across the South. He got good players almost every year out of Alabama, Mississippi, Florida, and Tennessee.

 

[collegeballfan]

... integration...

Correct.

 

[bke1984]

I'm really surprised that Bill Alexander ranks third in average power ranking. He was good in the twenties, but we were god awful in the thirties. Dodd was even quoted as saying something along the lines that no other coach could have retained his job while losing so many games.

 

[bke1984]

The Johnson vs. Gailey thing is definitely odd. I honestly think stats aren't going to tell the difference between those two guys. On paper I agree that they look the same, but Johnson has been a far better coach IMO just because of the signature wins.

O'Leary was a great coach and a great recruiter. However, he got us into a bit of trouble that handcuffed is for a while, didn't he? I'd also venture to say that his teams during his best years weren't playing as tough of a schedule from top to bottom as we are today.

 

[GlennW]

Stats are so misleading, especially when you IGNORE the fact that Paul Johnson isn't playing with the same deck as other Head Coaches, like George O'Leary in that he isn't taking the Exceptions in bulk, and that when he took over as Head Coach, he was hit with an NCAA Sanction due to Violations from his predecessor so he had limitations to Scholarships that affected the roster for years.

Now couple this with the fact that since PJ has been Head Coach, we've won the Coastal Division IN SPITE of these major Obstacles several times, and even won the ACC, playing in the Orange Bowl multiple times, having THREE double-digit win seasons (the best since Bobby Dodd was Head Coach), when we have ONE bad year like 2015, when we suffered SO MANY injuries to MULTIPLE key positions, I, personally, am THRILLED Paul Johnson is our Head Football Coach and can't imagine why anyone would have second doubts about him, especially when you see how the other Coaches supposedly being considered INSTEAD of him did.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

What is the one single defining fact that separates the Dodd era from the two subsequent eras?

He won more (77%) against tougher competition. (Kind of two facts together )

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I'm really surprised that Bill Alexander ranks third in average power ranking. He was good in the twenties, but we were god awful in the thirties. Dodd was even quoted as saying something along the lines that no other coach could have retained his job while losing so many games.

Like this bad, it's amazing the program ever recovered after 1930-31. I've also read that Alexander was beloved by the fans and administration. That is why he was kept. But agree that no coach would survive today.

 

[redmule]

Humans want to see patterns in randomness, so take this for what it's worth. Since Dodd, there seems to be some sort of 4-6 year periodicity. That would fit nicely with the pattern of our recruiting. We get a good class in, it takes them a year or two to get their feet on the ground so we struggle, we have one to three good years, then they leave, and we start the cycle over again.

 

[Skeptic]

... integration...

I think it was more curriculum and standards after Sputnik and the sudden huge increase in technical skills. Integration affected everybody until Bear Bryant got clocked by USC in Birmingham. And maybe, just maybe -- though this is playing to the Doddophobes -- it was Dodd, the coach. And the uniforms.

 

[JDjacket]

Alexander probably kept his job because of "The Plan."

"Alexander's plan was to minimize injuries by benching his starters early no matter the score of every game before the UGA finale. On December 3, 1927, UGA rolled into Atlanta on the cusp of a National Title. Tech's well rested starters shut out the Bulldogs 12–0 and ended any chance of UGA's first National Title."

literally went all in against UGA.

 

[Sideways]

He could sell sand to an Arab. Dodd was perfect for an era when parents were much more interested and involved in their child getting a good education. This was prior to pro football being in Atlanta. He was a tremendous recruiter and got top players from across the South. He got good players almost every year out of Alabama, Mississippi, Florida, and Tennessee.

Integration was probably the major difference between the Dodd years and what followed. I was merely explaining why he was successful during his time.