111 Years of GT Football

[GTNavyNuke]

I did a post on the last 70 years of GT football before last season to try and figure out how CPJ did against his peers like previous coaches since Dodd did. (https://gtswarm.com/threads/70-years-of-gt-football-–-comparing-teams-under-different-coaches.2501/ ) A lot of change since then when I was trying to figure out whether CPJ deserved to stay at GT.

If you can remember there was a wee bit of discussion about keeping CPJ last year. Since going 11-3 last year with the high end of year Power Ranking (see first post 70 years background), CPJ is now at GT as long as he wants. I thought it would be interesting to see where he is all time* at GT. Or at least since Heisman showed up. You can read what people said ….

This year I wanted to look at the entire history of GT football which includes Heisman and Alexander in the comparison. I ignored the first 12 years of GT football since football was more a club sport:

The summary is that CPJ is now the best coach since Dodd and close to overtaking Alexander before him. This is based on end of year Power Ranking which I consider far better than the single metric of win percentage since SOS and Home/Away varies so much. Here’s the graph of Power Ranking for the big 3 (Heisman, Alexander and Dodd) since 1904 when Heisman took over and began the GT tradition. (Thank you Clemson for letting him go!):

And the graph I’ve used a couple times recently to show that maintaining high performance at GT is the exception rather than the rule:

And here is the average through the coaching career at GT for each coach:

Not to gloss things over, but just think about Dodd and Heisman - they averaged 16th and 19th over their careers. That will never be approached by a GT coach.

But CPJ has the opportunity to close the gap on Alexander this year or fall back behind O’Leary. I hope it’s the former, but maintaining high performance at GT is not typical since Dodd left. Regressing has been far more typical.

“Success breeds complacency. Complacency breeds failure. Only the paranoid survive.” Andrew Grove


* Here’s why I like Power Rankings the best – they reflect Strength of Schedule. https://gtswarm.com/threads/70-years-of-gt-football-–-strength-of-schedule.2489/

 

[Jerry the Jacket]

I told my brother that I was on the fence about Johnson coming into 2014. It seemed he had plateaued as a Coach at Tech. We both felt that last year was critical to determine if CPJ was the man for the job or not. He proved he was the man for the job last year. I expect he will now roll off several years of excellence as our Head Coach.

Go Jackets!

 

[GlennW]

Paul Johnson gets less credit than any Head Coach GA Tech has ever had as far as I can tell. Since he was hired, he was straddled was NCAA penalties from the George O'Leary days which led to major admission restruction to the entire football program, limiting the player pool even more than in when he was hired.

Our program is already limited by the Georgia Board of Regents because they refuse to expand of majors, and the Hill has made it even MORE difficult to get players admitted, so the pool of available players PJ can even recruit keeps shrinking. Yet in spite of all of this, all he's done has kept our football team not only competitive in virtually every game we've played in, we're always in the hunt for the ACC Coastal Championship.

I think last season, when he FINALLY got a QB that bought into his system and was a true dual-threat; something he's never really had before, we started to see the offense dominate like never before. Getting Ted Roof back as Defensive Coordinator, with the players becoming fully entrenched in his schemes, and having his recruiting skills in place, has begun to, in my opinion, snowball towards a total team domination, not just offensive.

Assuming we can avoid further injuries, which have obviously hurt us in the running back position so far, I predict this team will excel again in 2015 because the players and Coaches are ready for that next big step.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

I told my brother that I was on the fence about Johnson coming into 2014. It seemed he had plateaued as a Coach at Tech. We both felt that last year was critical to determine if CPJ was the man for the job or not. He proved he was the man for the job last year. I expect he will now roll off several years of excellence as our Head Coach.

Go Jackets!

I thought you were off the fence and on the fire truck, iirc.

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

As a fan of Dodd, I can say that we played a much easier schedule back in the day. Plus he had some recruiting advantages that we lack now. We played at least 7-8 home games every year, never had to go on the road to several tough venues, and our arch rivals were still the little kid on the block.

 

[Skeptic]

As a fan of Dodd, I can say that we played a much easier schedule back in the day. Plus he had some recruiting advantages that we lack now. We played at least 7-8 home games every year, never had to go on the road to several tough venues, and our arch rivals were still the little kid on the block.

I am not quite getting the drift of a "much easier schedule". I don't recall the SEC being the pushover this implies. Can you explain your meaning?

 

[alaguy]

Nuke,
This is really an amazing job.The graphs told me so much more even though I lived and saw a bunch of it. ex-I didn't really realize Coach Alex was here longer than Dodd.That Heisman dominated so much. etc

 

[TheSilasSonRising]

Paul Johnson gets less credit than any Head Coach GA Tech has ever had as far as I can tell. Since he was hired, he was straddled was NCAA penalties from the George O'Leary days which led to major admission restruction to the entire football program, limiting the player pool even more than in when he was hired.

Our program is already limited by the Georgia Board of Regents because they refuse to expand of majors, and the Hill has made it even MORE difficult to get players admitted, so the pool of available players PJ can even recruit keeps shrinking. Yet in spite of all of this, all he's done has kept our football team not only competitive in virtually every game we've played in, we're always in the hunt for the ACC Coastal Championship.

I think last season, when he FINALLY got a QB that bought into his system and was a true dual-threat; something he's never really had before, we started to see the offense dominate like never before. Getting Ted Roof back as Defensive Coordinator, with the players becoming fully entrenched in his schemes, and having his recruiting skills in place, has begun to, in my opinion, snowball towards a total team domination, not just offensive.

Assuming we can avoid further injuries, which have obviously hurt us in the running back position so far, I predict this team will excel again in 2015 because the players and Coaches are ready for that next big step.

For the Board of Regents to expand majors, the individual University must FIRST request for expanded majors. I have not found anywhere when GT has done this to any significant degree to help the situation you seem to be addressing.

I have seen a LOT of whining by some saying these moves will devalue their degree & earning power by making the GT experience available to more students deserving of it.

 

[TheSilasSonRising]

I am not quite getting the drift of a "much easier schedule". I don't recall the SEC being the pushover this implies. Can you explain your meaning?

Do not assume to speak for the other poster, but Dodd always played 2 ACC teams when that league was VERY, VERY weak. And he demanded that one of those be played in Atlanta every year.

He tried to avoid 2 SEC heavyweights every chance he could - LSU & Ole Miss. And he a vast majority of the time would only play Auburn in Atlanta.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

As a fan of Dodd, I can say that we played a much easier schedule back in the day. Plus he had some recruiting advantages that we lack now. We played at least 7-8 home games every year, never had to go on the road to several tough venues, and our arch rivals were still the little kid on the block.

The Power Ranking takes into account the home/away advantage and strength of other opponents. The key to a really strong Power Ranking is to get to a good bowl game and win. Dodd did that a lot - GT had the best bowl record for a while based on the foundation Dodd built. You can play a few cupcakes but have to win the big games.

Nuke,
This is really an amazing job.The graphs told me so much more even though I lived and saw a bunch of it. ex-I didn't really realize Coach Alex was here longer than Dodd.That Heisman dominated so much. etc

I didn't live it but have read a lot of the books. What I found interesting is how bad some of Alexander's teams were. The early 30's teams were atrocious and any coach today would be fired after 3 years of that performance but Alexander had 5 bad years ... and then rebounded nicely. I really liked the yearly chart since it shows how long we had our coaches.

Also, you can see how Heisman built the program over the years .... I would think if he took over an established program he would have had a higher Power Rating than Dodd. But then again, Heisman left GT (after getting divorced) and was mediocre after that. I guess it shows how important a happy home life is......

 

[bke1984]

For the Board of Regents to expand majors, the individual University must FIRST request for expanded majors. I have not found anywhere when GT has done this to any significant degree to help the situation you seem to be addressing.

I have seen a LOT of whining by some saying these moves will devalue their degree & earning power by making the GT experience available to more students deserving of it.

The expanding majors thing happened recently. We just added a new degree program last year for athletes that want to focus on sports management. This stuff doesn't take effect overnight though. I think it will help in the long run

http://www.hts.gatech.edu/sports

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Looking at the last 111 years of what happens in the following year, you get:

Last year we finished with a power ranking of .797. http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cf2014.htm On average, the next year sees a decrease in power ranking of about .07. Looking at the graph for a band or .797+/- .05, 6 of 9 times the team has had a lower power ranking.

What does that mean for wins? In 2014 of the teams around .73 power ranking finished with about 9 wins. Thus, the likely outcome of wins for GT next year based on history only is about 9 wins. Given the tough schedule we have, 8 wins could also get us to a power ranking of .73.

Regardless, I will have my bocce court and beer keg ready for the season opener.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Here's the JHowell preseason - they have us at #23 with a PR of .708.

If we do the average for GT, we'll be at .73 or so Power Ranking and #17 or so.